文/中国人民银行科技司相关课题组 金融数字化、智能化背景下提升央行履职能力应以建设强大的中央银行为 目标，以数字央行建设为抓手，以运用数字化智能化手段提升央行履职能 力为主线，为建设具有高度适应性、竞争力、普惠性的中国特色现代金融 体系贡献科技力量。 金融信息化事业加速迈进数字化智能化新阶段 金融业是典型的技术密集型和创新驱动型行业。一部金融发展史，也是一部金融与科技不断融合创新的演进史。改革开放以来，随着信息技术持续迭代发 展，我国金融信息化事业已先后历经电子化、网络化阶段，为迈进数字化、智能化新阶段奠定坚实基础。金融电子化阶段，我国金融业主要依托电子计算 机、卫星通讯网络等技术，实现金融业务"从手工到电子、从单机到联网"的历史性突破，行业整体电子化、自动化水平显著提升。金融网络化阶段，我国 金融业运用互联网、移动通信、数据库等技术，将传统金融业务迁移至互联网和移动终端，推动金融数据集中和信息系统互联互通，支撑央行履职的国 库、支付、征信、反洗钱、会计核算等信息化基础设施体系逐步建立健全，金融服务和管理信息化水平实现全面跃升。 近年来，随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展，人工智能、大数据、云计算、区块链、 ...

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a recovery in prices and a stable GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2026, aligning with expectations. Inflation indicators are expected to gradually improve, leading to better corporate profits and household incomes. Overall, a trend of oscillating recovery is anticipated, with a key turning point expected in the second to third quarter when the comprehensive price level is projected to turn positive from negative [1][8]. GDP and Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5%, with a similar outlook for 2026. Notably, the relationship between nominal GDP and real GDP is changing, with both showing a gradual recovery. A significant turning point is anticipated in the second to third quarter, where nominal GDP is expected to surpass real GDP, indicating a positive growth in overall inflation indicators [3]. Consumer Market - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods has played a crucial role in supporting consumption. In 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods are projected to grow by approximately 3.7%, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as communication equipment and home appliances, showing rapid growth. The policy's effects are expected to continue into 2026, with an expansion of coverage to include smart products and AI glasses [4]. Manufacturing Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining a stable proportion of manufacturing in the economy. China's manufacturing sector is leading among major industrial countries, with improvements in quality and efficiency reflected in rising labor productivity. Emerging industries, including AI, big data, and biomedicine, are expected to drive future growth [4]. Real Estate Market - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the focus in the real estate sector will be on inventory reduction. Although the inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased, there remains a need for further de-stocking. Various policy tools have been prepared to support this, including central bank loans for affordable housing and special bonds for inventory reduction [5]. Infrastructure Investment - Debt reduction is crucial for infrastructure investment. The article categorizes provinces into "debt reduction" and "economic powerhouse" regions, noting that investment growth has been higher in economic powerhouse provinces. As debt reduction efforts progress, investment space in relevant provinces is expected to be released. New policy financial tools introduced recently are anticipated to positively impact infrastructure investment [6]. Export Performance - China's export growth has been unexpectedly strong, with a projected 5% increase in 2025 and a trade surplus of approximately $1 trillion. The resilience in exports is attributed to diversification and structural upgrades in the industry. The share of exports to the U.S. has decreased from nearly 20% to 11%, while exports to ASEAN countries have risen to 17% [7]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is described as very proactive, with a deficit rate of about 4% and an increase in special bond quotas. For 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain expansive, focusing on structural optimization and potentially easing local financing restrictions [12]. Capital Market Trends - The domestic A-share market has shown an upward trend, particularly in the technology sector. The global capital markets have also experienced varying degrees of growth, with emerging markets performing notably well. The article suggests that these trends are likely to continue into 2026, driven by a weak dollar environment [14]. Currency and Gold Market - Since November 2025, the RMB has strengthened significantly, supported by a large trade surplus and increased demand for the currency. The article anticipates a continued moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026. Additionally, gold prices have been rising, reflecting both its monetary and credit attributes, suggesting that gold will maintain its investment value in 2026 [15][16].

导语： 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。中国人民银行明确提出，将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活运用降准、降息等多种政策工 具，保持社会融资条件总体宽松，并已率先推出八大政策举措，以精准对接重点领域融资需求。围绕货币政策走向，多位专家就如何延续该 政策取向及其重要意义发表了深刻见解。分析普遍认为，保持适度宽松的货币环境有助于稳定市场信心、支持实体经济持续恢复。 与此同 时，2026年全球主要经济体的货币政策趋势亦成为焦点，各方对其潜在路径及外溢影响进行了前瞻性探讨。 2026如何继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策？ 中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长、中欧国际工商学院教授 盛松成 降准与降息均需稳步推进，但降准优于降息 2026降准优于降息。 在我国当前国情下，降准的适配性和积极效应更为突出。降准能增加商业银行可自主支配的资金，更好地配 合积极的财政政策——在我国宏观调控体系中，财政政策发挥主导作用，货币政策则承担协同配合职能，二者缺一不可。我国大部 分国债和地方政府债由商业银行持有，降准可使商业银行获得充足资金配置政府债券，实现财政政策与货币政策的高效联动。 我国不具备持续大幅降息的基础 ， 核心原因在于我国消 ...

文/ 招商银行股份有限公司消费行业战略客户部副总经理（主持工作） 王健男 ，招商银行股份有限公司消费行业战略客户部客户总监 党军 优化协同机制结构：双轮驱动效应可进一步增强。 CIPS与CBDC的常态化协同机制仍在完善中，二者功能互补性有待进一步释放。一方面，CIPS在大额 资金跨境调拨中的效率优势，与CBDC在小额高频支付场景中的便捷特性未能有机融合，从央企海外供应链结算实践看，对核心合作方的大额资金划转多 通过CIPS完成，而对中小合作方的小额支付仍依赖传统银行渠道，银行在渠道整合与技术适配方面的作用仍有提升空间，CBDC缩短清算周期、降低操作 成本的技术优势尚未完全转化为实际效能；另一方面，CBDC交易轨迹全程可追溯的技术特性，与CIPS的清算状态监控功能缺乏司库层面的联动衔接。从 央企跨境支付风险管控实践观察，部分企业司库系统在跨境资金流向全链条追踪方面仍需强化，异常交易识别时效有待提升，风险预警与处置的前瞻性仍 可进一步增强，未能形成实时监控、及时拦截、事后追溯的闭环防控机制。 为应对全球金融基础设施 "断链"风险与跨境支付效率瓶颈，"十五五"规 划建议将建设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系列为核心任务 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 黄金白银价格 近期 持续大涨的 主要 原因 在于， 地缘政治风险激增叠加美联储降息预期强化 。 地缘冲突引爆避险需求 1月3日爆发的 委内瑞拉事件 。 美国对委内瑞拉发动军事行动 ， 抓捕 该国 总统马杜罗，引发全球对美洲政局动荡的担忧。作为全球重要产油国，委内瑞 拉石油出口 大幅下降 ， 日出口量从 95万桶骤降至50万桶，加剧能源供应风险，资金涌入黄金 、 白银避险。 1月中旬格陵兰岛争端升级 。 美国宣称将武力夺取格陵兰岛并威胁对欧洲八国（丹麦、法德等）加征关税 ， 具体从 2月1日起征10% 关税 ， 6月升至 25%，欧盟拟 反制措施 。美欧贸易战与主权冲突叠加，导致全球风险资产 大幅震荡 ，贵金属成为避风港。 尽管特朗普随后发表了关于格陵兰岛的缓和 言论，但这根本没法打消市场的担忧。 中东与亚太局势紧张 。 美军持续增兵中东，伊朗核设施遇袭风险升温；日本解散议会引发债市动荡，韩国面临美国芯片关税威胁， 这些事件 进一步推升 避险情绪。 黄金白银价格 近期 持续大涨的 主要 原因 在于， 地缘政治风险激增叠加 美联储降息预期强化 。去美元化浪潮持续，现有的货币体系正在崩塌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development status and future trends of China's asset management industry under the backdrop of tariff friction and AI transformation, providing a comprehensive analysis of market size, structure, and sub-industry dynamics since 2005 [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Landscape - The asset management industry is experiencing a new development pattern amid increasing market uncertainty [7]. - Regulatory policies are guiding the high-quality development of the asset management industry [7]. - The entry of AGI into its second phase is driving fundamental innovations in the asset management sector through technological breakthroughs and integration [7]. - The AI era is transforming personal investment strategies, directions, and opportunities [7]. - The "silver economy" is entering its first year, with a comprehensive promotion of personal pensions [7]. - Mandatory disclosure of climate risk information is pushing the ESG concept towards practical implementation [7]. - In the context of macroeconomic changes, the value of stable cash flow assets is becoming more prominent [7]. - The Chinese cross-border asset management sector faces challenges and opportunities amid low interest rates and tariff impacts [7]. Group 2: Institutional Focus - The financial management industry is encouraged to embrace market changes and promote high-quality development through transformation [8]. Group 3: International and Hong Kong Asset Management - The report includes insights from international asset management markets, providing references for high-quality development in the industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to support economic stability and growth, particularly in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2025, the social financing scale increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the broad money supply grew by 8.5%, both significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate [3]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans was approximately 3.1% in December, reflecting a low financing cost environment [3]. - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. Group 2: Structural Policy Measures - The PBOC has introduced various structural monetary policy tools, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and an increase in the re-lending quota for agricultural and small enterprises to 4.35 trillion yuan [6]. - The PBOC aims to optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools to better support major strategies and key areas [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Market Stability - The exchange rate of the renminbi against a basket of currencies has remained stable, and the bond market has developed healthily, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% [4]. - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining the stability of the financial market and managing expectations effectively [6]. Group 4: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC is focused on constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to support high-quality financial development [7]. - Key areas of focus include monitoring systemic financial risks, expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management, and enhancing the standardization and effectiveness of macro-prudential management tools [13][14]. Group 5: Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC has allocated 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-lending, and increased the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-lending to 1.2 trillion yuan [18][19]. - The PBOC is enhancing support for SMEs by increasing re-lending quotas and improving financing accessibility for small and private enterprises [19][21].

总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。人民银行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 结构性政策方面，中国人民银行已在今年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对结构性货币政策工具的政策要素作了优化完善。 营造良好货币金融环境 有力支撑经济高质量发展——访中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜 金融是国民经济的血脉，关系中国式现代化建设全局。"十五五"规划建议明确"加快建设金融强国"，提出"完善中央银行制度"等具体举措。 近期召开的中央经济工作会议围绕继续实施适度宽松的货币政策作出一系列部署。 "十五五"新开局，如何实施好适度宽松的货币政策？建设金融强国将在哪些重点方面推进？怎样提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效？新 华社记者采访了中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜。 继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 问：中央经济工作会议提出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。中国人民银行将如何落实这一要求？ 答：2026年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of continuing a moderately loose monetary policy to address the supply-demand imbalance in China's real economy, which is characterized by excess production capacity in traditional and emerging industries, and a need to enhance consumer confidence and spending power [2][5][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, shifting from "timely reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates" to "flexibly and efficiently utilizing reductions," indicating a more responsive approach to monetary policy in 2026 [3][5]. - The primary goal of the monetary policy is to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, creating a conducive monetary environment for these objectives [3][5]. Group 2: Addressing Supply-Demand Imbalance - The persistent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand in China's economy necessitates a dual approach to stimulate both sides, with a primary focus on expanding effective demand [5][6]. - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to boost confidence among business entities, encourage financial institutions to increase credit support, and alleviate excessive competition in the market by enhancing overall demand [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on Prices and Economic Stability - The article highlights that the low price environment is closely linked to the imbalance in total supply and demand, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflecting a clear trend of supply exceeding demand [6][7]. - Since the introduction of a series of incremental monetary policies in the fourth quarter of 2024, there has been a mild recovery in CPI year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of the moderately loose monetary policy in promoting reasonable price recovery and expanding domestic demand [6][7]. Group 4: External Economic Challenges - The article notes that since 2025, significant changes in global trade patterns and capital flows have increased external uncertainties for China's economy, with expectations of weakened export growth due to geopolitical factors [7]. - Continuing a moderately loose monetary policy is seen as a crucial measure to not only support domestic economic development but also to mitigate external risks [7]. Group 5: Financial Risk Management - The article stresses the importance of maintaining a stable monetary policy while actively managing financial risks, particularly in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [12]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for proactive measures to stabilize the real estate market and mitigate risks associated with small and medium-sized financial institutions [12]. Group 6: Policy Coordination - The article advocates for enhanced coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to address the intertwined cyclical, structural, and institutional issues facing the economy [17]. - It highlights the importance of collaborative efforts between the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance to stabilize the real estate market and support economic growth [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for innovative reform paths to promote high-quality development in China's capital markets, focusing on multi-level market construction, improving the quality of listed companies, enhancing openness, and protecting investors [3][4]. Group 1: Reform Directions - The core content revolves around four major reform directions: enhancing the inclusiveness of multi-level markets, solidifying the foundation for market stability, expanding high-level institutional openness, and strengthening investor protection [3][4]. Group 2: Establishment of the Capital Market Society - The China Capital Market Society was registered on June 16, 2025, under the Ministry of Civil Affairs, supervised by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and aims to serve as a high-end think tank for theoretical research, academic exchange, and decision-making consultation in the capital market [3][4]. Group 3: Thematic Focus of Tsinghua Financial Review - The Tsinghua Financial Review plans to explore topics such as the support of capital markets for new productive forces, mechanisms for stabilizing the secondary market, openness of capital markets, and innovations in the bond market, seeking effective paths for capital market reform and innovation [4][5]. Group 4: Call for Contributions - The article outlines 13 specific topics for contributions, including enhancing the inherent stability of capital markets, the role of long-term funds in market stability, effective foreign capital market openness, and innovations in the bond market [5].