Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's currency policy, emphasizing the transition towards a strong renminbi (RMB) as a key element in establishing a financial powerhouse by 2025, aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar and enhance the RMB's international status [1][3][9]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Policy - Over the past 30 years, China's exchange rate system has undergone significant changes approximately every decade, starting with the 1994 unification of exchange rates, followed by a fixed peg to the US dollar until 2005, and then a market-based adjustment approach [1]. - From 2005 to 2015, the RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of 26%, while the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) rose by 46% [8]. - Post-2015, the RMB has exhibited more two-way fluctuations, with the exchange rate generally oscillating between 6.25 and 7.35 against the dollar [8]. Group 2: Policy Directions for a Strong RMB - The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference highlighted the need to accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse, placing "strong currency" at the forefront of its core elements [3][9]. - The government is expected to enhance policy coordination to elevate the RMB's international status, aiming to provide a viable alternative in the global monetary system [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and industrial integration to bolster the economic foundation necessary for a strong currency [3][15]. Group 3: Internationalization of the RMB - Significant progress has been made in promoting the RMB as an international currency, with measures taken from 2010 to 2015 to increase its use in international trade settlements and the establishment of offshore RMB markets [19]. - By the end of 2015, the IMF included the RMB in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, marking a milestone in the RMB's internationalization [19]. - As of 2021, the RMB accounted for 2.8% of global foreign exchange reserves, with expectations to reach a more competitive level in the coming years [21][28]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The potential for RMB internationalization is largely constrained by the degree of openness of China's capital account, with expectations for gradual relaxation of capital flow controls while maintaining macroeconomic management [4][22]. - The government aims to balance the promotion of RMB internationalization with the management of associated risks, focusing on building a robust cross-border payment system to reduce reliance on the SWIFT network [28][29]. - The RMB's role in global trade and investment is anticipated to grow, particularly in transactions with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, as China continues to diversify its trade and investment relationships [27].

文/ 国家外汇管理局外汇研究中心研究二部处长 刘旭 ，国家外汇管理局外汇研 究中心研究二部研究员 兰盈 当前美国国债（以下简称"美债"）困境不断加剧并累及全球，但国际社会 对此几乎束手无策。究其原因，主要是以美元为中心的一元国际货币体系 使得美债扩张不受约束，美国也不承担相应国际责任。国际货币体系多元 化可能是解决此问题的有效路径。应积极推动全球金融治理改革，共同构 建更加稳定、公平的国际金融新秩序。 美债是形成美元主导国际货币体系的重要支撑 1913年美联储成立以来，美债逐步发展成为重要的美元资产，推动美元国际化进程。自1913年美国国会通过《联邦储备法案》成立美联储以来，美债发行 与流通机制逐步完善，市场日趋成熟，美债逐步成为重要的美元资产。1917年美国加入一战后，为满足巨额军费融资需求，美联储先后出台允许国债抵押 再贴现、鼓励投资者贷款购债等一系列举措，美债流动性大幅提升，其金融资产属性也进一步强化。 1919年，美国取消银行设立海外分支机构及开展国际银行业务限制，推动美债进入国际金融市场流通。在货币网络递增效应作用下，美债逐步构建国际交 易与信用网络。由此，美元国际化进程加速，改变了自1870年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a return to the expansion zone after eight months, driven by policy support, increased external demand, and a later Spring Festival in 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Support and Investment Recovery - Policy measures have effectively promoted investment stabilization, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to "promote investment stabilization and stimulate private investment vitality" [2][3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a plan for early 2026 construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan [2][3]. - The production index increased to 51.7% and the new orders index rose to 50.8%, indicating a rebound in production and orders due to fiscal support [3]. Group 2: External Demand and Export Orders - The new export orders index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, reflecting a significant rise in export orders driven by strong external demand [4]. - Global monetary easing and fiscal stimulus have bolstered external demand, with manufacturing PMIs in France and the UK rising to expansion zones, and the US PMI remaining above 52% since August [4]. - Container throughput increased by 7.2% year-on-year in December, indicating a positive trend in export activities [4]. Group 3: Impact of the Spring Festival Timing - The later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival (February 17) resulted in less disruption to December's physical workload compared to previous years [5]. - The production index in December rose by 1.7 percentage points, contrasting with the historical trend of decline in December production indices [5]. Group 4: Price Trends and Inventory Adjustments - The PMI output price index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, indicating a recovery in output prices, although they remain in a contraction zone [5]. - The inventory index saw an increase, with procurement volume, raw material inventory, and finished goods inventory rising due to increased production and orders [6]. - Various industries, including electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals, showed signs of inventory replenishment, although the sustainability of this trend requires further data support [6].

学习好贯彻好党的二十届四中全会精神※ 习近平 这次全会，听取了中央政治局工作报告，分析了当前形势和任务，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》，圆满完成各项议程。 全会通过的《建议》，立足于夯实基础、全面发力，对"十五五"时期事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务作出部署，是指导"十五五"时期经济社 会发展的纲领性文件。学习好贯彻好全会精神，是当前和今后一个时期全党全国的一项重大政治任务。 下面，我代表中央政治局，就贯彻落实全会精神讲几点意见。 要迅速掀起学习贯彻全会精神的热潮，通过各种方式组织好全会精神的学习、宣讲、宣传，使全党全社会领会好全会精神。 第一，深刻领会"十五五"时期经济社会发展的重大意义。按照经济社会发展规律确定奋斗目标，一以贯之锚定目标团结奋进，是我们党的一 个鲜明特点和独特优势。实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程，需要不懈努力、接续奋斗。在基本实现社会主 义现代化进程中，"十五五"时期具有承前启后的重要地位。全党要认识到，抓好"十五五"时期经济社会发展，对于实现党的二十大描绘的宏伟 蓝图、分阶段有步骤推进中国式现代化，有效应对复杂严峻的外部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.1% in December, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector for the first time since April, reflecting an overall recovery in China's economic climate [4]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing an increase compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [4]. - Both production index and new orders index saw significant increases, with production index at 51.7% (up 1.7 percentage points) and new orders index at 50.8% (up 1.6 percentage points), marking a notable expansion in demand [4]. - Large enterprises' PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI was at 49.8%, and small enterprises' PMI decreased to 48.6%, indicating varied recovery levels across enterprise sizes [4]. Group 2: Key Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.5%, showing a positive growth trend, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both reached 50.4%, indicating expansion [5]. - The production expectations index rose to 55.5%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development, particularly in the agricultural and food processing sectors [5]. Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [6]. - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.7%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while retail and catering remained in contraction [7]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly to 52.8%, driven by favorable weather conditions and increased construction activity ahead of the holidays [7]. Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors, with manufacturing production index at 51.7% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.2% [8].

文/ 清华大学国家金融研究院新结构金融学研究中心副主任 沙楠 ，清华大学五 道口金融学院讲席教授、南方科技大学商学院讲席教授 周皓 美联储政策制定过程不能完全脱离美国政治与意识形态的影响，尤其国会 可对其决策展开质询和监督，这些都极其考验美联储决策层，特别是主席 平衡的艺术，即在维护独立性的同时，如何考量金融监管职能扩大对货币 政策的影响，如何在党派分歧加剧背景下避免政治干扰，如何抑制通胀的 同时避免经济衰退等。基于此，本文将以美联储重大变革为脉络，梳理独 立性的演变，并对其前景进行展望。 2025年美国总统特朗普上任以来，政治方面的压力正试图对美联储的决策过程产生影响，诸如其对美联储理事库克提出解职要求，其提名新任理事人选米 兰的快速入职，美联储下任主席遴选程序的高调启动，以及政府内阁成员对联储利率政策的公开且频繁评论，等等，相关事件接连上演，频次密集，这对 美联储的独立性地位带来一定的挑战。而中央银行的独立性一旦受损，美元信用的基础将被削弱，金融市场也必将迎来动荡。可以说，独立性正是美联储 如今具有极高信誉度和广泛影响力的基石与核心所在。 美联储成立至今已有百余年历史，其独立性地位并非一蹴而就。在此过程中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that if the Shanghai Composite Index can close above 4000 points by the end of 2025, it will instill strong confidence in the market, encouraging more incremental capital to enter in the future. The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical stocks, and resource stocks [2][3]. Economic Dimension - The economic landscape is characterized by accelerated structural transformation and the rise of new productive forces. Manufacturing PMI is stabilizing, and retail consumption is recovering. High-end manufacturing sectors like smart devices and new energy vehicles are growing significantly faster than the overall economy, becoming key drivers of new productive forces [5]. Financial Dimension - Valuations are aligning with performance, showing significant horizontal space. Non-financial sectors' net profit grew by 1.04% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with technology sectors like AI (up 19.24%) and semiconductors (up 32.41%) showing remarkable profitability. A-shares are undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, with financial and infrastructure sectors still having safety margins [5]. Policy Dimension - The policy environment is focused on stabilizing expectations and increasing incremental capital. Reforms in the capital market, such as raising the equity investment cap for insurance funds to 50%, and optimizing delisting and dividend mechanisms, are enhancing investment functionality. The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes support for new industries like AI and commercial aerospace [5]. Capital Dimension - Continuous inflow of capital is observed, with insurance funds increasing their equity investments to over 4.7 trillion yuan, adding more than 600 billion yuan in 2025. There is ample room for growth, as evidenced by a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits and a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, with funds entering the market through ETFs and mutual funds [6]. Industry Dimension - The dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors is evident. In technology growth, there is a surge in demand for AI computing power, storage, and commercial aerospace driven by policy support. In cyclical sectors, the supply-demand gap for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is widening, with expectations of a 150,000-ton shortfall in refined copper in 2026 [6]. Company Dimension - Overall profitability is improving, showcasing resilience. Leading companies in innovation-driven sectors, such as CATL, are achieving high capacity utilization rates close to 90%, with technological breakthroughs driving down costs [7]. Outlook for 2026 - Multiple brokerages express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a continuation of the slow bull market. The core driving logic is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit support, with anticipated earnings growth of 5% to 12% [9][10]. The recovery of PPI is seen as a key factor that will drive nominal GDP growth and improve overall profitability in the market [11]. Key Investment Themes - Key investment themes include technology growth led by AI and hard technology, with a focus on areas like optical modules and computing chips. The cyclical and resource sectors are also expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with industrial metals and energy sectors showing potential for cash flow improvement and high dividend yields [12].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council Tariff Commission has released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," which will implement a temporary import tariff lower than the most-favored-nation rate on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, to enhance the synergy between domestic and international markets and resources [1][2]. Group 1: Import Temporary Tariff - A temporary import tariff will be applied to 935 items (excluding tariff quota goods) [6]. - The adjustment aims to promote high-level technological self-reliance, reduce import tariffs on key components and advanced materials such as CNC hydraulic pads and composite joints [1]. - It supports the green transformation of the economy by lowering tariffs on resource-based products like regenerated black powder for lithium-ion batteries [1]. - The plan also aims to improve people's livelihoods by reducing tariffs on medical products such as artificial blood vessels and diagnostic kits for certain infectious diseases [1]. Group 2: Tariff Quota Rates - The tariff quota management will continue for eight categories of imported goods, including wheat, with unchanged tax rates [7]. - Specific fertilizers like urea, compound fertilizers, and ammonium hydrogen phosphate will maintain a 1% temporary import tariff within quota limits [7]. Group 3: Export Tariff Rates - Export tariffs will continue to be levied on 107 items, with 68 of these items subject to temporary export tariffs [8]. Group 4: Tax Items and Annotations - Adjustments have been made to certain tax items and annotations, resulting in a total of 8,972 tax items and 201 annotations for domestic items [9]. Group 5: Agreement Tariffs - The plan continues to implement agreement tariffs on certain imported goods from 34 trade partners based on 24 free trade agreements and preferential trade arrangements [10]. - Further tax reductions will be implemented according to agreements with countries such as New Zealand, Peru, Switzerland, and others [10]. Group 6: Preferential Tariffs - 43 least developed countries will continue to receive zero tariff treatment on 100% of tariff items, with preferential tariffs applied [11]. - Certain imported goods from Bangladesh, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar will also continue to enjoy preferential tariff rates based on agreements [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the U.S. GDP growth in Q3 2025, which is significantly higher than previous values and market expectations, driven mainly by inventory adjustments and improvements in net exports, while actual economic momentum remains weak [4][5]. Economic Growth Analysis - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is reported at 4.3%, up from a previous value of 3.8% and exceeding the market expectation of 3.3% [5]. - The rebound in GDP is attributed to a reduction in inventory drag and a temporary recovery in consumption, rather than a fundamental improvement in economic momentum [5][6]. Consumption Insights - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased at an annualized rate of 3.5% in Q3, contributing 2.39 percentage points to GDP, which is an improvement from 1.68 percentage points in Q2 [5][9]. - Durable goods consumption contributed only 0.12 percentage points to GDP, lower than the previous quarter, indicating a weaker trend in this segment [6][9]. - Service consumption provided a significant support to GDP, contributing 1.74 percentage points, with healthcare services showing a notable increase [6][9]. Investment Trends - Private investment remained weak, contributing -0.02 percentage points to GDP, although this is an improvement from -2.66 percentage points in Q2 [6][9]. - Non-residential fixed investment contributed 0.40 percentage points to GDP, down from 0.98 in Q2, indicating a slowdown in business investment [7][9]. - Intellectual property investment also saw a decline, contributing 0.30 percentage points, with software-related investments dropping significantly [7][9]. Inventory and Net Exports - Inventory adjustments were a major factor in the GDP rebound, with the negative contribution from inventory drag decreasing from 3.44 percentage points in Q2 to 0.22 percentage points in Q3 [8][9]. - Net exports contributed 1.59 percentage points to GDP, with exports contributing 0.92 percentage points and a decline in imports contributing 0.67 percentage points [8][9]. Future Economic Outlook - The article suggests that the economic growth observed is primarily a reflection of temporary fluctuations rather than a sustainable trend, with ongoing concerns about employment and investment sentiment [8]. - There is a reduced market expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, influenced by the stronger-than-expected economic growth [8].

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a new digital RMB framework and the continuation of proactive fiscal policies in 2026, aimed at enhancing financial support for economic growth [9][5]. Group 1: Digital RMB Framework - The new digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will officially be implemented on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The People's Bank of China has validated the feasibility and reliability of the digital RMB through over six years of research and four years of pilot programs, establishing a dual-layer operational structure involving the central bank and commercial financial institutions [10]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding the fiscal expenditure envelope to ensure necessary spending [5][12]. - Key measures include optimizing the government bond tool mix, enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds, and improving the structure of expenditures to support key areas [12]. Group 3: Cross-Border Financing - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notification to facilitate domestic enterprises in raising funds efficiently in overseas financial markets, including unifying foreign currency fund management policies and simplifying management procedures [10][11]. - The notification aims to reduce cross-border financing costs and enhance financial flexibility for enterprises, promoting the internationalization of the RMB [11]. Group 4: Real Estate Policy - Beijing has adjusted its real estate policies to relax purchasing restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children, allowing them to buy additional properties under certain conditions [15]. - This policy aligns with the central government's economic directives and aims to stimulate real estate market activity [15]. Group 5: Market Measures - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with an estimated total reduction exceeding 1.9 billion yuan, aimed at lowering costs for listed companies and investors [16]. - These measures are intended to enhance market liquidity and support the real economy by reducing transaction costs [16][17]. Group 6: Currency Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed the 7 yuan mark against the US dollar, reflecting a combination of external pressures easing and internal economic resilience [18]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the US dollar, particularly in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [18].