特朗普力推的万亿减税计划需发行天量国债，而当前4.25%-4.5%的基准利率使得融资成本高企。特朗普 表示，降息能为政府节省"数十亿美元"。 特朗普指责鲍威尔，传递出什么信号？ 文/ 《清华金融评论》 王茅 特朗普强调， 希望任命"愿意降息"的新主席，称 降息能为政府节省"数 十亿美元"。特朗普对美联储事务"横加干涉"，短期内会导致资本市场震 荡， 长期政策可信度受损。不过，根据当前的经济数据和美联储官员的 最新表态，美联储可能在 202 5年9月启动降息。 近日，特朗普公开宣称希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，他指责鲍威尔"固执"且"拒绝降息"，强调希望任 命"愿意降息"的新主席。特朗普希望鲍威尔"下台"，特朗普要求美联储立即降息1-2.5个百分点，这个幅 度远高于市场预期。 特朗普的态度至少传递出以下两个核心信号：一是政策分歧公开化。特朗普对鲍威尔的态度，反映其试 图通过人事更迭推动宽松货币政策，以配合其减税计划（需要低利率以降低发债成本），并实现中期选 举前的经济刺激目标。 二是美联储独立性受挑战。若鲍威尔被迫提前离任，将打破美国总统通常等待任期结束再提名继任者的 惯例。美联储前官员警告，此举可能催生"影子美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on "New Industries, New Technologies, New Models, New Dynamics - Digital Finance Supporting High-Quality Development," emphasizing the role of digital finance in enhancing economic resilience and innovation [1][4][39]. Group 1: Keynote Speeches - Zhang Wei highlighted that high-quality development is essential for China's modernization, advocating for the integration of technology and finance to reduce costs and enhance financial services [4][3]. - Ouyang Weimin discussed how digital finance has improved the quality of financial services for enterprises, particularly in supporting innovative companies through tailored financial products and services [6][3]. - Wang Zhongmin identified three new modalities in the AI era: open-source models, service-oriented models, and the financialization of AI assets, indicating a transformative shift in the financial landscape [7][3]. Group 2: High-End Dialogue - The dialogue emphasized the synergy between digital finance and industry as a driving force for high-quality development, addressing challenges like data silos and risk-sharing [10]. Group 3: Thematic Presentations - Bei Duoguang stressed the importance of inclusive finance, advocating for a comprehensive service system that supports various financial needs beyond just credit [11][12]. - Bu Xiangrui pointed out the advantages of financial arbitration in resolving disputes efficiently, highlighting the role of the Guangzhou Arbitration Commission in promoting financial market health [14]. - Qiu Yanbing emphasized the need for legislation on stablecoins to enhance the efficiency of the financial ecosystem and reshape international financial dynamics [16]. - Wang Jie connected industrial mergers and acquisitions with development opportunities, stressing the importance of policy support and financial empowerment [18]. - Li Min noted that mergers and acquisitions are crucial for addressing market saturation and achieving financing goals, emphasizing a long-term strategic approach [20]. Group 4: Roundtable Discussion - Gu Yukuang indicated that the success of high-end medical insurance relies on service and operational capabilities, advocating for a robust network of direct payment hospitals [21][23]. - Zhou Qing highlighted the need for product upgrades and innovations in commercial health insurance to meet rising consumer demands and improve coverage [25]. - Zhang Yaohui discussed the role of mutual insurance as a connector between social security and commercial insurance, emphasizing its importance in the evolving healthcare landscape [26][27]. - Yang Liye pointed out the shift in life insurance companies towards health management, advocating for a focus on mid-to-high-end medical services [28]. - Lang Lili emphasized the need for commercial insurance to effectively integrate with social insurance, enhancing the overall healthcare payment system [31].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels amidst a complex external environment and domestic challenges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments to better utilize monetary policy tools for both total and structural functions [2][3]. - It was noted that the effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform continues to be released, and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates is functioning effectively, leading to enhanced monetary policy transmission efficiency [2][3]. Group 2: Economic and Financial Environment - The current external environment is increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth, rising trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies, creating uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [3]. - Despite the positive trends in China's economy, including improved social confidence and solid progress in high-quality development, challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and persistent low prices remain [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting proposed increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, enhancing its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, while maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply [4]. - It emphasized the need to strengthen the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improve the market-oriented interest rate formation transmission mechanism [4]. Group 4: Financial Supply-Side Structural Reform - The meeting discussed deepening financial supply-side structural reforms, urging large banks to play a leading role in serving the real economy and supporting small and medium-sized banks in focusing on their core responsibilities [6]. - It was highlighted that effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools is essential to support key areas such as technological innovation and consumption [6]. Group 5: Policy Coordination and Development Goals - The meeting underscored the importance of adhering to the guiding principles of Xi Jinping's thought and fully implementing the decisions made by the Central Committee, with a focus on high-quality development and the construction of a new development pattern [7]. - It called for a better balance between total supply and demand, enhancing macro policy coordination, and effectively utilizing both existing and new policies to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lack of a real estate trust property registration system in China's trust industry, which has long hindered its development. The case of the first residential real estate trust property registration in Tongzhou District serves as an innovative example to address this institutional barrier and explores the unique value of real estate trusts in inclusive finance and elder care finance [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Pain Points - The trust industry in China faces significant challenges due to the absence of a real estate trust property registration system, which severely restricts the development of real estate trust business. As of the end of 2024, the total entrusted property scale of 68 trust companies reached 27 trillion yuan, but the number of real estate trusts is minimal [4]. - Key institutional barriers include unclear legal definitions of property ownership, cumbersome property transfer processes, and excessive tax burdens. The confusion over property rights threatens beneficiary rights and leads to legal disputes [4][6]. - The traditional model requires clients to inject cash into the trust plan before purchasing property, which imposes additional financial burdens and operational delays on ordinary families [4][6]. Group 2: Policy Breakthroughs - On November 18, 2023, the State Council included the establishment of a real estate trust property registration mechanism in its plan to expand financial services, providing top-level policy support for the pilot project in Beijing [7]. - The Beijing Municipal People's Congress passed a revised regulation on November 29, 2024, which explicitly states the exploration of a registration mechanism for real estate and equity as trust property, thus ensuring legislative support for institutional innovation [7]. - A three-tiered institutional framework has been established, consisting of top-level design, local legislation, and implementation details, marking the official start of the real estate trust property registration pilot [7]. Group 3: Practical Breakthroughs - On April 2, 2025, Guotou Taikang Trust completed the first residential real estate trust property registration in Tongzhou District, where the trust was established to provide lifelong care for a beneficiary with autism [8]. - The "Tongzhou Case" achieved three major breakthroughs: the establishment of a legal confirmation mechanism for property registration, simplification of the property transfer process, and the creation of a lifelong care mechanism for the beneficiary [8][9]. - The legal confirmation mechanism ensures that the property is clearly marked as "trust property," which helps to mitigate risks associated with property mixing and serves as a core basis for judicial proceedings in property disputes [8].

2025年6月27日，清华大学五道口金融学院受邀在第14届中国（广州）国际金融交易·博览会上举办 主旨会议。会议以"新产业、新技术、新模式、新动能——数智金融助力高质量发展"为主题，为期 1天，设置主旨演讲、高端对话、主题发言和圆桌交流环节。会议上，多位来自金融、保险、法律 与健康产业领域的顶尖学者和资深从业者，围绕普惠金融发展、数智化金融创新、产业并购机遇及 健康险生态合作等话题进行了深入交流。 会议由广东卫视主持人吴荻主持。 图为会议现场 会议上，清华大学五道口金融学院党委委员、院长助理，《清华金融评论》执行主编张伟代表 主办方致辞，中国金融学会副会长、广东省原副省长、国家开发银行原行长欧阳卫民与全国社 保基金理事会原副理事长王忠民分别发表主旨演讲。内容聚焦经济高质量发展、如何通过数智 金融发展为科创企业添砖加瓦，以及AI时代的产业新模态等，为金融服务实体经济、巩固我国 数字经济优势建言献策。 中国仲裁法学研究会金融专业委员会主任、广州仲裁委员会金融投资专业委员会首席专家、仲裁员 卜祥瑞作"数智仲裁助力金融产业健康发展"主题分享，探讨了数智仲裁如何助力金融业健康发展； 盈峰发展CEO邱延冰作"关于数智金融 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that building a unified market in China is essential for modernizing the economy, and reducing transaction costs is key to achieving this goal [2][5][6] - Transaction costs are identified as the main barrier to market unification, with administrative divisions and local protectionism being significant contributors [2][5][6] - The concept of a unified market is linked to economic efficiency, emphasizing the importance of specialization and division of labor to enhance productivity [4][5] Group 2 - The article highlights that the transition from a planned economy to a market economy has shifted the role of local governments from direct producers to indirect tax collectors, impacting transaction costs [10] - It suggests that the focus of reducing transaction costs should shift from downstream product markets to upstream factor markets in the context of building a unified market [9][10] - The relationship between central and local governments is crucial in addressing transaction costs, as local governments often create barriers that hinder market integration [8][10]

文/国务院发展研究中心研究员 张立群 经 济 增 长 过 程 也 是 总 供 给与 总 需 求 紧密 联系 、 互为 条 件 、 矛 盾 运 动 的 过 程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失 衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的失衡；增速 过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。当前我国经 济增速已偏离合理区间较多，供大于求的宏观经济总量失衡较为严重。市 场引导的需求收缩力度已很大 合理经济增长率与宏观经济总量平衡 经济增长过程也是总供给与总需求紧密联系、互为条件、矛盾运动的过程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间 过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的 失衡；增速过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。 在市场调节条件下，供求总量失衡和经济增速偏离合理区间后会出现自我加速趋势。市场供求调节机制 会使宏观经济总量失衡持续加剧，使经济增速加快偏离合理区间，这也表现为经济增长的大起大落。对 市场机制可能引发的这一严重问题，必须依靠政府的科学宏观调控，必须及时加强宏观政策逆周期调 节，及时扭转市场引导 ...

《意见》强调，要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持，结合消费场景和特点创新金融产品，持续推 动消费领域金融服务提质增效。优化消费支付服务，健全消费领域信用体系建设，加强金融消费 权益保护。下一步，中国人民银行将会同有关部门加快推动《意见》各项政策实施落地，强化跟 踪监测，指导金融机构持续加大消费领域金融支持力度，为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作 用提供有力金融支撑。 内需是经济发展的基本动力。习近平总书记指出，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为 拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 2025 年《政府工作报告》将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益， 全方位扩大国内 封 面专题：大力提振消费 全方位扩大国内需求 需求"列为今年首要任务。 2025 年 3 月 16 日，中办、国办印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，从 提升消费能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境等方面提出了提振消费的顶层政策框架。党中央、 国务院的各项政策体现了进一步凝聚共识、拓宽思路，把经济政策着力点更多转向促消费具有重 要意义。 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，完善扩大消费长效机制，更好满足消费领域金融服务需 求，近日中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商 ...

6月27日（星期五） 09:30-16:30 新产业 新技术 新模式 新动能 ——数智金融助力高质量发展 第14届中国（广州）国际金融交易 · 博览会 主旨会议 基本信息 会议时间 会议地点 广州·中国进出口商品交易会展馆A区二层4.2馆 主办单位 09:30-09:40 主持开场 清华大学五道口金融学院 承办单位 北京清控金媒文化科技有限公司 广州金交会投资管理有限公司 《清华金融评论》编辑部 会议议程 吴 荻 广东卫视主持人 09:40-09:50 主办方致辞 张 伟 清华大学五道口金融学院党委委员、院长助理，《清华金融评论》执行主编 09:50-10:00 领导致辞 10:00-10:50 主旨演讲 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长，广东省原副省长，国家开发银行原行长 王忠民 全国社保基金理事会原副理事长 10:50-11:20 高端对话 主持嘉宾： 吴 荻 广东卫视主持人 对话嘉宾： 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长，广东省原副省长，国家开发银行原行长 王忠民 全国社保基金理事会原副理事长 11:20-11:40 主题发言：正确理解普惠金融 11:20 11:40 主题发言：正确理解普惠金融 贝多广 中国人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment System on June 22 by the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority marks a significant advancement in financial cooperation between mainland China and Hong Kong, aiming to enhance cross-border remittance services and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system [2][3]. Group 1: System Overview - The Cross-Border Payment System is built on the Memorandum of Understanding for cross-border payment connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong, facilitating efficient and secure remittance services by connecting the mainland's Interbank Payment System (IBPS) with Hong Kong's Faster Payment System (FPS) [3]. - The system aims to address the growing demand for cross-border financial services as economic and trade ties between the Greater Bay Area and Hong Kong deepen [2]. Group 2: Advantages of the Cross-Border Payment System - The system offers several advantages, including support for interbank remittances, various payment purposes, real-time transactions, low transaction costs, and the ability to use mobile numbers for remittance [5][12]. - Unlike the traditional SWIFT system, which can take 1-2 business days for transactions, the new system allows for instant transfers, significantly improving efficiency [7]. - The Cross-Border Payment System reduces costs associated with SWIFT, where fees can reach 1%-3% of the transaction amount, by eliminating intermediaries and offering promotional zero-fee services [7]. Group 3: Operational Details - The initial participants in the Cross-Border Payment System include six major banks from mainland China and six from Hong Kong, enhancing the system's operational capacity [11][12]. - There are specific remittance limits: Hong Kong residents can remit up to 200,000 HKD annually and 10,000 HKD daily, while mainland residents can remit up to 50,000 USD annually and 300,000 RMB daily [12]. - The system currently focuses on person-to-person (P2P) transactions, with plans to expand to business and government transactions in the future [12]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The Cross-Border Payment System is expected to strengthen Hong Kong's role as an offshore RMB hub and enhance the city's financial center status by increasing RMB deposits [13]. - The People's Bank of China plans to collaborate with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to ensure the smooth operation of the system and promote high-quality development of the cross-border payment framework [13].