Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices to $3,300 per ounce is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential military action by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities, alongside expectations of economic slowdown and inflation in the U.S. which are favorable for gold [1][4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: - **Dollar Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Policy**: A weaker dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The current dollar index is around 100, providing support for gold prices. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 (projected cuts of 75-100 basis points) reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price [7]. - **Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand**: Recent fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies and uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have heightened risk aversion. Historical data indicates that geopolitical conflicts typically boost gold prices by approximately 12% [7]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Gold is known for its anti-inflation properties. As a non-fiat currency, its scarcity and stability make it a valuable asset during periods of declining purchasing power of paper currency. For instance, during the high inflation period of the 1970s in the U.S., gold prices soared from $35 to $800 per ounce [7]. - **Central Bank Purchases and Supply-Demand Dynamics**: In 2024, global central banks are expected to net purchase 1,045 tons of gold, reflecting a continued trend of de-dollarization in emerging markets [7]. 2025 Gold Price Outlook - Currently, gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with resistance at $3,500 per ounce and support between $2,900 and $3,200 per ounce. Financial institutions predict that gold prices may exceed $4,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by global debt expansion, with U.S. debt projected to reach $44 trillion, and potential restructuring of the monetary system [9]. - Gold is increasingly viewed as a viable asset allocation option, with recommendations suggesting that gold should not exceed 20% of household assets. A diversified approach involving gold ETFs, physical gold bars, and mining stocks is advised to mitigate risks. Gold serves as a long-term tool against credit depreciation, despite experiencing a prolonged bear market from 2011 to 2015 [9]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are likely influenced by Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to weakening dollar credit and global debt risks [9].

会议以圆桌讨论形式展开，蒙古央行副行长恩赫泰万·冈包勒德（Enkhtaivan Ganbold），泰国央行金融 稳定部部长梁荣（Rungporn Roengpitya），中央财经大学国际金融研究中心主任张礼卿，新开发银行环 境社会治理局负责人罗曼·诺沃日洛夫（Roman Novozhilov）四位嘉宾针对议题展开热烈讨论。清华大学 五道口金融学院讲席教授陆毅主持本场论坛。 恩赫泰万・冈包勒德 蒙古央行副行长 2025年5月17日-18日，"共享未来——构建开放包容的经济与金融体系"2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在 深圳市成功召开。17日下午，主题论坛六以"新兴市场债务危机与金融治理"为主题，围绕新兴市场出现 的债务危机，阐述了不同国家的治理方式及相关政策。 图为圆桌讨论现场 梁荣 梁荣在发言伊始指出，对于许多国家而言，债务水平实际上在疫情之前便已持续攀升，而2020年 的新冠疫情以及2022年通胀的急剧上升进一步加剧了这一趋势，二者导致家庭和企业收入受到冲 击、成本不断上升，最终促使部分群体积累了更多债务。同时，各国政府为缓解这些冲击而推出 的刺激政策也推高了公共债务水平。债务的积累广泛存在于企业、家庭和政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of increasing consumption rates in China to promote stable economic growth and enhance investment efficiency, highlighting the interdependent relationship between consumption and investment [1][10]. Group 1: Relationship Between Consumption and Investment - The traditional "three drivers" model (consumption, investment, net exports) often leads to a fragmented view of the relationship between consumption and investment, which are actually interrelated and should not be viewed in isolation [3][5]. - In the short term, consumption and investment may appear to compete for resources, but over the long term, investment can enhance future consumption by creating jobs and increasing income [6][10]. - The article argues that consumption is the ultimate goal of economic activity, as it relates to national welfare and the pursuit of a better life, thus reinforcing the need for a balanced approach to consumption and investment [5][10]. Group 2: Causal Relationship and Economic Models - The article discusses how investment can stimulate consumption by creating jobs and increasing disposable income, while strong consumer demand can drive investment decisions by businesses [6][21]. - It highlights that the relationship between consumption and investment can change over time, particularly in the context of China's economic transition from a planned to a market economy [10][22]. - Economic growth models, such as the Solow model, emphasize the importance of both consumption and investment, suggesting that an optimal balance is necessary for sustainable growth [12][13]. Group 3: Comparison of Consumption and Investment in China and the U.S. - Data from the World Bank indicates that China's capital formation as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated significantly, peaking at 46.7% in 2011, while U.S. capital formation has remained relatively stable between 20% and 26% [14][16]. - The article notes that during economic downturns, U.S. consumption tends to increase as investment declines, contrasting with China's rising capital formation during similar periods [16][17]. - The current consumption rate in China is still below the optimal level, indicating a need for a shift in the economic growth model from investment-driven to consumption-driven [17][22]. Group 4: Promoting a Positive Cycle Between Consumption and Investment - The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference report suggests two methods to promote a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment: stimulating potential consumption and expanding effective investment [19][20]. - The article asserts that consumption is crucial for economic stability, as it tends to be more stable than investment, especially during periods of economic uncertainty [21][22]. - It concludes that fostering a positive interaction between consumption and investment is essential for both short-term economic growth and long-term sustainable development [22].

2025年5月17-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市盛大召开。17日下午，主题论坛三"全球 经济碎片化的挑战"顺利举办。哈萨克斯坦前副总理、哈萨克斯坦央行前行长海拉特·克里姆别托夫， 中国金融学会副会长、国家开发银行原行长欧阳卫民，克罗地亚国家银行行长鲍里斯·武伊契奇，纽 约大学斯特恩商学院荣休教授鲁里埃尔·罗比尼参与讨论并发表观点。清华大学五道口金融学院副院 长、金融学讲席教授张晓燕主持论坛。 海拉特・克里姆别托夫 哈萨克斯坦前副总理 哈萨克斯坦央行前行长 海拉特·克里姆别托夫表示，当前全球经济正处于高度不确定性中，这对政策制定者提出了极 大挑战。曾经被广泛接受的经济规则和理论如今不再适用，未来图景尚不清晰。他指出，当前 的形势在某种程度上类似于20世纪30年代美国 大萧条初期。此外，国际争端的处理方式 也日益趋向商业化，更像是企业间的谈判，而非国家间的战略协商，使得全球互动 逐渐演变为一种以交易为导向的关系。 尽管面临种种挑战，他认为，全球格局正在 逐 步 向 区 域 化 演 变 ， 这 一 趋 势 有 可 能 为 中 亚 国 家 带 来 新 的 发 展 机 遇 。 在 这 一 背 景 下， ...

文/ 《清华金融评论》 王茅 近日30年期美国国债收益率突破5%， 表明美国国债的风险越来越高。导 致美债"危机"的与两件大事有关，一是关税问题，二是穆迪下调美国信用 评级。如果进一步演变， 将会给 美国股市、房市、汇市带来大麻烦。 5月19日，30年期美国国债收益率已突破5%。长期 以来，美国国债被认为是全球市场最为安全的投 资工具，是市场的 "锚"，美国国债收益率也被认为是无风险利率。但现如今情况发生了变化，30 年期美国国债收益率一度飙至5%，表明美国国债的风险越来越高。 从历史的角度来看，只要长期美国国债收益率升至 5%，都表明有负面的大事发生，究竟是什么 事情造成了美国国债的"危机"？ 本次美债"危机"的两个直接导火索 刚刚过去的周末，发生了两件大事。 一件与关税有关。 由于中国在中美关税问题上采取了强有 力的态度，当然更是因为中国强大的供应链等实力，促使美方主动与中方接洽谈判，达成了协 议。这个结果促使一些其他 "大国"确信，本国也可以在谈判中采取强硬立场以获益，这些国家认 为，自己也能够承担因放缓谈判步伐所带来的冲击。对于这种情况，美国方面感到非常"恼火"。 截至 2025年4月，美国联邦债务突 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum held in Shenzhen focuses on the outlook of China's economy and the role of finance in empowering technological innovation and development [1][15]. Group 1: Economic Outlook and Financial Policy - The forum includes a discussion on the "2025 China Economic Outlook" and the release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025" [1]. - Key figures from the financial sector, including the project execution leader of the report and former chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities, are involved in the discussions [2]. - The event aims to gather insights from leaders, scholars, and industry elites to shape the financial landscape in China [1]. Group 2: Financial Empowerment of Technological Innovation - The second theme of the forum addresses how finance can empower technological innovation and development [15]. - Various experts, including the deputy director of the China Financial 40 Forum and the chairman of the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Guidance Fund, contribute to this discussion [20][18]. - The forum emphasizes the importance of financial support in fostering technological advancements and innovation within the economy [15].

2025年5月17-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市成功召开。主题讨论五以"绿色发展的机遇与 挑战"为主题，清华大学五道口金融学院讲席教授、绿色金融研究中心主任鞠建东，巴西央行前副行 长、国际清算银行前副总经理路易斯·佩雷拉·达席尔瓦，联合国全球契约组织驻华代表刘萌，马里前矿 业能源和水利部部长、前塞内加尔河流域开发组织负责人哈马德·塞梅加等嘉宾发表主题演讲。 论坛由法国桥智库主席周瑞主持，来自60余国的500余名政商学界代表现场参会，共同探讨绿色金融的 全球协作路径。 鞠建东 清华大学五道口金融学院讲席教授 鞠建东在演讲中直面气候危机挑战，指出全球气温升幅已突破1.5℃，若延续现有趋势，2060年或 将面临升温4℃的灾难性后果。他提出三点核心建议：一是通过南南合作对冲发达国家绿色需求下 滑，中国应成为引领力量；二是政府需以担保机制确保绿色项目投资回报率，吸引国际资本参 与；三是推动多边开发银行与新兴市场协作，解决绿色能源供需错配问题。 他强调，在发达国家绿色需求下滑的背景下，中国需通过南南合作引领新兴市场并形成正向需 求。他以非洲绿电项目为例，提出政府应通过担保机制确保年化3%-4%的投资回报 ...

2025年5月17-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市成功召开。17日下午，主题论坛二 "新形势 下的国际贸易与投资" 顺利举办。中国进出口银行原董事长、中国国际经济交流中心副理事长胡晓炼， 联合国贸发会议投资与企业司司长、联合国可持续证券交易所倡议主席李楠，国际货币基金组织驻华首 席代表马歇尔・米尔斯，中兴通讯首席发展官崔丽分别围绕论坛主题发表见解。清华大学国家金融研究 院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长、讲席教授田轩主持论坛。 图为论坛现场 胡晓炼 中国进出口银行原董事长 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长 胡晓炼以《新形势下国际贸易与投资的格局变化》为题发表观点，指出当前关税政策对国际贸易 投资体系产生冲击，对于未来国际贸易投资格局走势提出三点 "再平衡"思考：一是贸易投资中的 成本效益再平衡。全球南方新兴市场国家在全球贸易投资中的机遇和占比有望提升，而美国制造 业回流难度较大；二是全球贸易再平衡，将推动主要经济体内部经济结构深度调整。解决贸易不 平衡问题需聚焦本国储蓄、消费、投资等领域的协调发展，指望别国调整而自身不解决结构问题 难以实现可持续的贸易平衡；三是货币再平衡，促使世界货币体系向多元 ...

封面专题： "十四五"回顾与"十五五"前瞻 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。习近平总书记在党的二十届三中 全会第二次全体会议上强调，要总结评估"十四五"规划落实情况，切实搞好"十五五"规划前期谋划工 作。2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，要扎实推动高质量发展，高质量完成"十四五"规划目标 任务，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 回顾"十四五"，国内外发展环境发生重大深刻变化，面对复杂严峻的国际、国内环境，我国坚持稳中求 进 总基调，强化宏观政策统筹协调，推动高质量发展取得新突破：国内生产总值（GDP）跨过120万亿 元台 阶，内需对经济增长的贡献率提高，居民消费持续恢复增长，投资、贸易、金融领域发展动力和 活力增强， 新质生产力加快形成，数字经济和实体经济深度融合，经济金融领域风险有效化解，经济 社会高质量新发展 格局迈出重要步伐。 前瞻"十五五"，这是我国应对百年变局、塑造战略优势的关键时期，是开启全面建设社会主义现代化国 家 新征程后，为2035年基本实现社会主义现代化进一步夯实基础的重要阶段。在这个关键阶段，要把 稳定经 济增长放在更加突出重要位置，要尽快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the financial sector, including Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, the collaborative efforts to enhance Beijing's financial management capabilities, and the revisions to the regulations governing major asset restructuring for listed companies in China [4][5][8][9]. Group 1: Moody's Downgrade of U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing government debt and interest payment ratios [4]. - As of April 2025, U.S. federal debt exceeded $36 trillion, accounting for 98% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 134% by 2035 [5]. - The annual interest expenditure on U.S. debt has reached 6.4% of GDP, with expectations it may rise to 9% by 2035 [5]. Group 2: Collaborative Efforts for Financial Development in Beijing - A meeting was held to discuss the development of Beijing as a national financial management center, emphasizing the need for collaboration among various financial regulatory bodies [8]. - The People's Bank of China is committed to supporting Beijing's economic and financial development, aiming to create a favorable monetary environment [8]. - The initiative aims to enhance Beijing's role in financial policy-making, regulatory coordination, and resource allocation, contributing to the broader goal of building a financial powerhouse [8][9]. Group 3: Revisions to Major Asset Restructuring Regulations - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released revised regulations for major asset restructuring, introducing a phased payment mechanism for restructuring shares [9]. - The revisions include increased regulatory flexibility regarding financial condition changes, inter-industry competition, and related party transactions [9]. - Following the new regulations, the total value of major restructuring transactions reached 200 billion yuan, marking an 11.6-fold increase compared to the same period last year, with 70% of these transactions focusing on strategic sectors like integrated circuits and new energy [9]. Group 4: Adjustments in Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index underwent adjustments, with the inclusion of companies like Midea Group and ZTO Express, increasing the number of constituents [10]. - The adjustments reflect a shift towards sectors such as consumer goods, new energy technology, and modern logistics, while reducing the weight of traditional industries [11]. - Post-adjustment, the market capitalization of new economy sectors in the Hang Seng Index increased from 53.1% to 53.7%, indicating a trend of capital moving from low-growth sectors to high-growth areas [11]. Group 5: Hong Kong's Economic Outlook - The Hong Kong government maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 2%-3%, with the economy showing robust expansion in the first quarter of 2025 [12]. - The real GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, an acceleration from the previous quarter's growth of 2.5% [12]. - Factors contributing to this growth include a reduction in global economic uncertainties and improved conditions for trade and tourism [12].