文/ 汇丰银行大中华区前首席经济学家 屈宏斌 消费与科技从来不是"非此即彼"的选择题，而是"唇齿相依"的共生体。没 有 消 费 需 求 的 " 土 壤 " ， 科 技 创 新 就 是 " 无 的 之 矢 "； 脱 离 民 生 改 善 的 " 目 标"，技术突破也难成可持续的增长动能。 消费与科技从来不是"非此即彼"的选择题，而是"唇齿相依"的共生体 在讨论经济增长的核心动力时，不少人会下意识站队"科技创新"——毕竟芯片突破、AI迭代、新能源崛起的故事足够振奋，这种思路也潜移默化体现在政 策导向上：研发补贴、科创园区、人才计划密集出台，而消费刺激常被视为"短期救急"。 多数人推崇科技创新的重要性，固然有其道理。2024年我国全社会研发经费支出突破4万亿元，占GDP比重达2.8%，新能源汽车、人工智能等领域专利数 量稳居全球第一，这些"硬核实力"确实是突破发展瓶颈的关键。但脱离消费需求的科技创新，往往陷入"叫好不叫座"的尴尬。 某国产芯片企业耗费5年攻克28纳米消费级芯片技术，投入研发资金超10亿元，可因终端消费电子需求疲软，手机厂商减产压库，该芯片上市后订单量不 足预期的三成，不仅未能收回成本，还因现金流紧张被 ...

文/ 住 房和城乡建设部党组书记、部长 倪虹 新征程上，我们要坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署，顺应城市工作新形势、 改革发展新要求、人民群众新期待，高质量推进城市更新，大力推动城市 结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，牢牢 守住城市安全底线，努力走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 2025年7月召开的中央城市工作会议明确提出，"以推进城市更新为重要抓手"，"以建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市为目 标"。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局，科学把握城市发展方位，深刻洞察城市发展规律，就 推动城市高质量发展作出的重大战略部署。2025年底召开的中央经济工作会议强调，"高质量推进城市更新"。新征程上，我们要坚决贯彻落实党中央决策 部署，顺应城市工作新形势、改革发展新要求、人民群众新期待，高质量推进城市更新，大力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉 赓续、治理增效，牢牢守住城市安全底线，努力走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务 高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for innovative reform paths to promote high-quality development in China's capital markets, focusing on multi-level market construction, improving the quality of listed companies, opening up to foreign investment, and protecting investors [3][4]. Group 1: Reform Directions - The core content revolves around four major reform directions: enhancing the inclusiveness of multi-level markets, solidifying the foundation for market stability, expanding high-level institutional openness, and strengthening investor protection [3][4]. Group 2: Establishment of the Capital Market Society - The China Capital Market Society was registered on June 16, 2025, under the Ministry of Civil Affairs, supervised by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and aims to serve as a high-end think tank for theoretical research, academic exchange, and decision-making consultation in the capital market [3][4]. Group 3: Thematic Focus of Tsinghua Financial Review - The Tsinghua Financial Review plans to explore topics such as the support of capital markets for new productive forces, mechanisms for stabilizing the secondary market, capital market openness, and innovations in the bond market, aiming to find effective paths for capital market reform and innovation [4][5]. Group 4: Call for Contributions - The article outlines 13 specific topics for contributions, including enhancing the inherent stability of capital markets, the role of long-term funds in market stability, effective foreign market openness, and the innovation directions for the bond market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the leadership transition at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with Jin Liqun stepping down and Zou Jiayi taking over as the new president for a five-year term starting January 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Jin Liqun served as the first president of AIIB from January 16, 2016, and was re-elected for a second term starting January 16, 2021 [4]. - Zou Jiayi, a seasoned professional with over 30 years of experience in international development cooperation, has been elected as the next president of AIIB during a special meeting of the council on June 24, 2025 [5][14]. - Zou Jiayi has held various significant positions within the Ministry of Finance and has extensive experience in international financial organizations, including the World Bank and AIIB [6][10]. Group 2: Zou Jiayi's Background - Zou Jiayi has a strong educational background, holding a bachelor's degree in English from the University of International Relations and a master's degree in international economic relations from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [5]. - Her career includes roles such as Deputy Director of the International Department of the Ministry of Finance, Executive Director at the World Bank, and Vice Minister of Finance [10][11]. - Zou has been involved in significant international discussions, emphasizing the importance of multilateral cooperation and the integration of market systems [14].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the capital market, while addressing the challenges posed by multiple risks and uncertainties in 2025 [3]. Group 1: Achievements in 2025 - The CSRC has made significant progress in stabilizing the market, with a notable increase in medium- and long-term capital entering the market, leading to a recovery trend [3]. - A total of 701 cases of securities and futures violations were investigated, resulting in fines totaling 15.47 billion yuan, indicating enhanced regulatory enforcement [3]. - The total cash dividends and buybacks by listed companies reached 2.68 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing momentum for high-quality development [3]. - The total amount raised through IPOs and refinancing was 1.26 trillion yuan, while the bond market issued various bonds totaling 16.3 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Future Work Focus - The CSRC aims to maintain market stability and improve the quality of development by enhancing market monitoring and regulatory measures to prevent excessive market fluctuations [5]. - There will be a focus on deepening reforms in the capital market, including the implementation of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the introduction of a third set of standards for the Growth Enterprise Market [6]. - The CSRC plans to strengthen legal enforcement and regulatory effectiveness, particularly against financial fraud and market manipulation, while improving the governance of listed companies [6]. - Efforts will be made to enhance the openness of the capital market, including optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme and expanding the range of futures products available for foreign investment [7]. Group 3: Party Leadership and Governance - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership in the capital market and enhancing the accountability of its regulatory framework [8]. - There will be a focus on improving the quality of the regulatory workforce and ensuring that the regulatory environment is conducive to high-quality market development [8].

Core Viewpoint - The key assertion presented is that the rebalancing of global manufacturing is fundamentally linked to the rebalancing of the international monetary system, with a strategic window for capital account opening anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [2][6]. Group 1: U.S. Short-term Debt Default Risk and Triffin's Dilemma - The potential for U.S. short-term debt default is discussed, emphasizing the need for a balance between the real economy and the financial sector [4]. - The concept of "Triffin's Dilemma" is introduced, indicating that if the U.S. economy's share in the global economy falls below a certain threshold, it could lead to a default on its debt and the collapse of the dollar system [5][6]. - The Trump administration's approach to tariffs, dollar policy, and military actions are identified as tools to address the impending crisis related to Triffin's Dilemma [5]. Group 2: Global Economic Rebalancing - The rebalancing of the U.S. economy is framed as a structural adjustment between manufacturing and finance, necessitating collaboration with China and Europe [6]. - Data indicates that China's foreign exchange trading share is significantly lower than its GDP share, highlighting systemic issues related to its capital account not being open [6][7]. - The strong dollar is identified as a threat to U.S. manufacturing, leading to resource allocation issues and increased risks of debt default [7]. Group 3: Risks of Continued Global Imbalance - The ongoing global imbalance is attributed to differences in productivity and systemic issues within the international monetary framework, particularly China's closed capital account [8]. - Two potential paths to address this imbalance are proposed: a "Corner Solution" or an "Interior Solution" through capital account opening [8]. Group 4: Potential Crisis Development Paths - Two theoretical scenarios for China are outlined: the risk of a "Japan-style crisis" and the potential for military conflict if economic stagnation occurs [9]. - The second scenario suggests that as China's military and technological capabilities grow, the risks associated with the dollar crisis may increase, potentially leading to military actions by the U.S. [10]. Group 5: Goals for Renminbi Internationalization and Capital Account Opening - The goal of renminbi internationalization is to establish it as a normal currency in the international monetary system, rather than to challenge the dollar's dominance [12]. - A structured approach to capital account opening is proposed, emphasizing the importance of timing, floating exchange rate mechanisms, and gradual opening of capital projects [13][14]. Group 6: Strategic Opportunity Period and Cooperation Suggestions - The years 2026-2027 are identified as a strategic opportunity for capital account opening, with a call for proactive measures to avoid forced openings due to conflict [15]. - A recommendation is made to use the opening of the renminbi capital account as a leverage point for global cooperation to address manufacturing imbalances [15].

当 地 时 间 1 3 日 ， 世 界 银 行 （ 下 称 " 世 行 " ） 发 布 最 新 一 期 《 全 球 经 济 展 望》报告，显示尽管贸易紧张局势与政策不确定性持续存在，全球经济的 韧性仍超出预期。 世行预计未来两年全球增速大体保持平稳，2026年为2.6%，2027年回升至2.7%，较去年6月的预测有 所上调。 不过，世行也表示，即便当前预测正确无误，2020年至2030年可能是20世纪60年代以来全球经济增长 最疲软的十年。 世行认为，增长乏力正导致全球生活水平差距拉大：到2025年底，几乎所有发达经济体的人均收入均 已超越2019年水平，但约四分之一发展中经济体的人均收入仍低于2019年。 仍展现出韧性 报告显示，尽管面临贸易紧张局势和政策不确定性加剧，过去一年全球经济在人工智能（AI）投资大 增等因素影响下仍展现出韧性。 世行表示，2025年，政策变动前的贸易激增与全球供应链的迅速调整支撑了经济增长。然而随着贸易 与内需走弱，这些提振效应预计将在2026年消退。 不过报告认为，全球金融条件趋于宽松及多个大型经济体的财政扩张应有助于缓冲经济下行。受劳动 力市场趋软及能源价格下降影响，预计20 ...

人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示。根据当前经济金融形势需要，人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措 施。 一方面 是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率，提高银行重点领域信贷投放的积极性。 另一方面 是完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，进一步 助力经济结构转型优化。具体包括以下几项： 一是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。 各类再贷款一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。 二是将支农支小再贷款与再贴现打通使用，增加额度，并单设民营企业再贷款。 合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再 贷款额度5000亿元，总额度中单设一项民营企业再贷款，额度1万亿元，重点支持中小民营企业。 三是增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度并扩大支持范围。 将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿元，增加4000亿元至1.2万亿元，并 将研发投入水平较高的民营中小企业等纳入支持领域。 四是合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具。 将此前已经设立的民营企业债券融资支持工具、科技创新债券风险分担工具合并管 理，合计提供再贷款额度2000亿元。 五是拓展碳减排支持工具的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and application of financial AI agents, emphasizing their potential to transform the financial industry by enhancing efficiency and accuracy in various tasks, particularly in high-value, technology-intensive areas rather than low-value, labor-intensive sectors [4][5][9]. Group 1: Evolution of AI Technology - Recent advancements in AI technology can be categorized into three main areas: transitioning from unimodal to multimodal capabilities, evolving from AI assistants to AI agents, and reducing energy consumption through innovative algorithms [5][6]. - The latest AI models can process and generate various types of unstructured data, including text, audio, video, images, and code, thus expanding their applicability across different tasks [5]. - AI agents, particularly financial agents, are designed to perform complex tasks in various scenarios, potentially surpassing traditional productivity levels [5]. Group 2: Application Environment of Financial AI Agents - Financial AI agents are being deployed across banking, insurance, securities, funds, and wealth management sectors, gradually replacing human roles, especially in knowledge-intensive positions [7][9]. - For instance, Baidu's digital credit manager can draft due diligence reports in one hour with over 98% accuracy, significantly reducing the time required for such tasks [9]. - The integration of AI in financial advisory roles could lead to a potential replacement of over 60% of investment advisor positions, indicating a shift in the human resource structure within the financial industry [9]. Group 3: Reliability and Economic Viability - The deployment of financial AI agents necessitates advanced security technologies to mitigate risks such as data poisoning and algorithmic biases, ensuring the integrity and reliability of financial transactions [11][12]. - High reliability, interpretability, and economic efficiency are crucial for the successful implementation of financial AI agents, which must be trusted by clients, markets, and regulators [12]. - The focus should be on creating trustworthy AI models that can handle market analysis, customer segmentation, and investment advisory tasks with minimal errors [12]. Group 4: Data Quality and Sharing - The financial sector is data-intensive, and the current data-sharing environment faces challenges such as administrative fragmentation and insufficient circulation of non-public data [14][15]. - To enhance data quality and availability, there is a need for public data to be shared more openly and for private data to be utilized in a market-oriented manner, ensuring privacy and security [15][16]. - Establishing a comprehensive financial database that integrates various data types and sources is essential for the effective functioning of financial AI agents [16].

以下文章来源于清华五道口终身学习 ，作者清华五道口云课堂 沐浴清华之风，继承道口传统，保持前沿视野，按照"更专业、更科技、更国际、更人文、最清华"的路径，搭建终身学习平台。 当前，全球经济增长动能减弱，贸易格局深刻重塑，财政可持续性承压， 金融风险持续积累，世界正步入一个充满"脆弱韧性"的复杂阶段。在这一 背景下，如何穿透低增长的迷雾，在结构性变革中识别风险、把握机遇， 成为各国政界、学界和商界共同关注的焦点。 20 26年1月10日，清华大学主楼接待厅座无虚席，清华五道口在线大讲堂 联合全球经济治理五十人论坛推出的新年首讲在此举行，特邀国际货币基 金组织（IMF）原副总裁、中国人民银行原副行长朱民担任主讲嘉宾。本 次讲座主题为"世界经济金融2 026：脆弱的增长——结构性变化的挑战和 机遇"，由清华大学五道口金融学院院长焦捷教授主持，数百名清华五道 口师生、校友及业界人士现场聆听，同时通过线上平台吸引了广泛关注。 朱民以其深厚的学术功底和丰富的国际金融实践经验，系统梳理了当前全 球经 济金融面 临的六 个 维 度结 构 性变 化， 勾勒 出一 幅机 遇与 风险 交 织的 20 26年世界经济图景，为各界人士 ...