7月1 6日出版的第1 4期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、 中央军委主席习近平的重要文章《坚定不移推进高水平对外开放》。这是 习近平总书记2012年12月至2 025年4月期间有关重要论述的节录。 坚定不移推进高水平对外开放 习近平 三 要准确把握经济全球化新趋势和我国对外开放新要求。改革开放是我国经济社会发展的动力。不断扩大 对外开放、提高对外开放水平，以开放促改革、促发展，是我国发展不断取得新成就的重要法宝。开放 带来进步，封闭导致落后，这已为世界和我国发展实践所证明。党的十八大以来，我们乘势而上，加快 构建开放型经济新体制，更高水平的开放格局正在形成。 一 二 （2014年12月5日在十八届中央政治局第十九次集体学习时的讲话） 四 开放发展注重的是解决发展内外联动问题。国际经济合作和竞争局面正在发生深刻变化，全球经济治理 体系和规则正在面临重大调整，引进来、走出去在深度、广度、节奏上都是过去所不可比拟的，应对外 部经济风险、维护国家经济安全的压 力也是过去所不能比拟的。现在的问题不是要不要对外开放，而 是如何提高对外开放的质量和发展的内外联动性。我国对外开放水平总体上还不够高，用好国际国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of stablecoins, highlighting the regulatory developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong, and the implications for global finance and the international monetary system [4][10][14]. Group 1: U.S. Stablecoin Developments - The U.S. stablecoin legislation emphasizes an "America First" principle, allowing only domestic issuers and restricting foreign issuers to those from countries with comparable regulations [10][11]. - U.S. short-term government bonds remain the preferred asset for stablecoins, with a projected demand of $1.6 trillion by 2028 [12]. - The introduction of stablecoins is seen as a strategy to maintain U.S. dollar dominance and mitigate the risks associated with the country's structural trade and fiscal deficits [9][13]. Group 2: Hong Kong's Stablecoin Framework - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation aims to create a unified regulatory framework, focusing on payment functions and full reserve backing [16][18]. - The positioning of Hong Kong's stablecoin is uncertain, particularly whether it will serve solely as a payment tool or also as an investment tool [18][19]. - The potential for Hong Kong's stablecoin to link China with global markets is significant, especially given the rapid growth of cross-border payments [20][21]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - The rise of stablecoins poses challenges to existing financial systems, with concerns about speculative trading and regulatory oversight [6][23]. - The article suggests that the international monetary system may evolve towards a multipolar structure, with the need for enhanced regulatory frameworks to manage risks associated with decentralized finance [14][23]. - The integration of digital currencies and stablecoins into the global payment system could reshape financial transactions and international trade dynamics [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the US dollar's reserve share despite the ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the impact of US economic policies under Trump, highlighting the complexities of international currency dynamics and capital flows [1][14]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Stability - As of the end of Q1 this year, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves was 57.74%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous quarter but an increase of 0.46 percentage points from the previous year's low [2][11]. - The dollar's reserve share has remained below 60% for ten consecutive quarters, marking a significant decline from around 70% in the early 2000s, indicating a trend towards a multipolar international monetary system [14][15]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Foreign Investment - In Q1 this year, the net inflow of international securities capital into the US was $447.5 billion, significantly higher than the $43 billion in the same period last year, with private foreign investment showing a notable recovery [6][11]. - Official foreign investment in US securities totaled $65.671 trillion, with a net purchase of $91.5 billion, reflecting a 15.8% increase [11]. Group 3: Composition of Foreign Holdings - Official foreign investors held $38.356 trillion in US Treasury securities, an increase of $175.9 billion from the end of last year, with net purchases of $138.3 billion, a 114% year-on-year increase [8][9]. - The holdings of US stocks by official foreign investors decreased by $112.2 billion, with net sales of $26.9 billion, indicating a shift in investment strategy [9][10]. Group 4: Trends in Other Reserve Currencies - The share of non-traditional reserve currencies has increased, with a cumulative rise of 1.84 percentage points from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025, surpassing the decline in the dollar's share [15]. - The share of gold in global reserves has risen significantly, with central banks increasingly favoring gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties [20][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of urban development in China, highlighting the achievements and future directions as outlined in the Central Urban Work Conference [2][3][4] - The meeting identified the overall requirements for urban work, focusing on high-quality development, innovation, livability, and resilience in modern urban planning [3][5][6] Group 2 - The meeting outlined seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing urban systems, fostering innovative cities, enhancing livability, promoting green and low-carbon cities, ensuring safety and resilience, cultivating civilized cities, and developing smart cities [5][6][7] - The transition from rapid urbanization to stable development is emphasized, with a focus on improving existing urban quality rather than expanding [4][5] Group 3 - The article discusses the need for a comprehensive leadership structure and effective execution of urban policies to ensure successful implementation of urban development strategies [6][7] - It highlights the necessity of adapting urban development concepts to be more people-centered and efficient, with a focus on governance and coordination [4][5]

今天上午10时，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局公布了今年上半年经济数据。国家统计局副局长盛来运表示，上半年，我国有效实施更加积极 有为的宏观政策，国民经济顶住压力、迎难而上，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好。初步核算， 上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比 增长5.3% 。 盛来运表示， 今年以来，国际环境复杂多变、国际经贸秩序遭受重创，不稳定性、不确定性增加，面对复杂局面在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领 导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、 稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，国民经济顶压前行、稳定运行，主要指标好于预期，高质量发展扎实推进，经济保持了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。在 此，我想用四句话来概括上半年经济运行的主要特点： . . 来源 |国家统计局、央视新闻 编辑丨丁开艳 一是"稳"的态势持续。 上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。从观察宏观经济的四大指标来看，增长是稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，其 中一季度是5.4%，二季度是5.2%，上半年的增速比去年同期和全年均提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to further increase the fiscal deficit, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy in the medium term [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The act is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion from FY2025 to FY2035, surpassing the previous estimate of $2.8 trillion [5]. - The act extends tax cuts from Trump's first term but reduces government spending through measures like cutting child tax credits and lowering renewable energy subsidies [4][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the annual fiscal deficit could exceed $2 trillion, which is over 6% of GDP, indicating a significant fiscal challenge ahead [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context of Tariff Revenue - Historically, tariffs were a major source of U.S. government revenue, accounting for up to 90% of total revenue from 1790 to 1860, but this has significantly declined over the years [6][7]. - By 2024, tariffs are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to total U.S. fiscal revenue, which is a modest recovery compared to historical levels [8]. Group 3: Recent Trends in Tariff Revenue - In June, U.S. tariff revenue exceeded $27 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a potential short-term boost to fiscal income [9][10]. - The increase in tariff revenue may be influenced by temporary factors, such as strong import activity, which may not be sustainable in the long run [10][11]. Group 4: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Policy - The sustainability of current tariff rates is uncertain, as potential negotiations with trading partners could lead to reductions in tariffs, impacting future revenue [11][12]. - The overall economic impact of tariff policies on U.S. growth and fiscal revenue remains unclear, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries posing additional risks [12][13]. Group 5: Need for Comprehensive Fiscal Solutions - Relying solely on tariff revenue to address the growing fiscal deficit is insufficient, as even optimistic projections suggest limited contributions relative to the overall deficit [14]. - Achieving medium-term fiscal balance will require a multifaceted approach beyond just increasing tariff revenues [14].

Focus on Key Points - The official launch of the Sci-Tech Growth Tier marks a significant reform in China's capital market, broadening financing channels for tech companies and optimizing the market ecosystem [5][6][7] - The introduction of a pre-review mechanism for IPOs aims to protect sensitive business information for tech firms, while a new investment institution system will enhance the quality of investments in the sector [5][6] - The Sci-Tech Growth Tier is expected to shift the valuation logic of tech companies from short-term profits to long-term technological value [6][7] Economic Growth Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economic increment is projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to the total economic output of the top three provinces in 2024 [7][8] - China's economy has shown resilience, maintaining an average growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years despite challenges such as the pandemic and trade tensions [7][8] Employment Policies - The State Council has issued a notice to enhance employment support, focusing on stabilizing jobs, businesses, and market expectations to promote high-quality economic development [8][9] - The notice includes measures to expand loan support for job retention and encourage companies to increase hiring, alongside improving skills training and employment services [8][9] Insurance Sector Reforms - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a long-term assessment framework for state-owned commercial insurance companies, emphasizing a multi-year performance evaluation [10] - This reform aims to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, enhancing their role in supporting the real economy and stabilizing the capital market [10] Brokerage Performance - Several brokerage firms have reported significant increases in net profits for the first half of the year, with some firms seeing profits rise over tenfold [11][12] - The surge in profits indicates a more active capital market and suggests a shift towards resource integration and capability enhancement within the brokerage industry [12] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, marking an increase of $322 billion from the previous month [13] - The rise in reserves is attributed to favorable macroeconomic conditions and a decline in the dollar index, reflecting China's stable economic growth [13]

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 关税 仍在 不会消失， 必然会有人因此承受损失。之前美国 进口商承担 了关税的压力，但 当前 关税豁免期已过， 这些进口商 的存货 究竟 还 能 支撑多久 。会不会美联储 刚 开始 宣布 降息， 美国的通货膨胀就很快到 来，倘若情况果真如此，美国股市将何去何从，美国的货币政策又将何去 何从？ 最近几个月，美国总统特朗普时不时对美联储主席鲍威尔展开 "抨击"，认为鲍威尔应该尽快降息。而 鲍威尔的一贯回复是，需要时间观察通胀数据。 关税对美国通胀的影响，真的消失了？ 但是 美联储 不得不面对一个现实 ， 那就是之前 进口商承担了关税的压力，但 当前 关税豁免期已过， 这些进口商 的存货 究竟 还能支撑几个月 。 关税对美国通胀的影响，会延后数月到来 市场普遍预计，关税战将导致美国的通货膨胀再度上扬。但现实情况目前看来并非如此。 特朗普是于 2025年4月初挑起"关税战"的，自那以来 美国 的 关税收入同比 猛增超过 200% ， 与此同 时，美国的通货膨胀数据却相当平稳。数据显示， 美国 4月CPI同比增长2.3% ，预期为 增长 2.4%，前 值为2.4 ；美国 5月CPI同比2.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to accelerate the development of the third pillar of pension insurance and implement a personal pension system in China, addressing structural challenges in pension finance and advocating for an increased allocation of equity assets in pension investments while utilizing derivatives for risk management [2][4]. Group 1: Structural Challenges in Pension Finance - China's aging population poses significant structural challenges to pension finance, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above by the end of 2024, accounting for 22% of the total population [5]. - The reliance on government funding is substantial, with over two-thirds of pension funds coming from government-led basic pensions and social security funds, while enterprise annuities and personal commercial insurance account for only 32.7% [6]. - The investment structure is heavily concentrated in fixed-income assets, with over 85% of pension products invested in such assets from 2021 to 2024 [6]. Group 2: Need for Increased Equity Investment - The current pension finance system is characterized by low marketization and a predominance of fixed-income assets, leading to low returns. As of June 2024, the actual contribution rate for personal pensions was only 22%, with only 25% of contributions being invested [8]. - The potential for the silver economy is significant, with projections indicating that its contribution to GDP will rise from 6% to 9% by 2035, necessitating an increase in equity asset investment to enhance overall pension returns and alleviate government financial pressure [9]. Group 3: Risk Management through Derivatives - Equity investments exhibit greater short-term volatility compared to fixed-income investments, which has contributed to the current focus on fixed-income assets in pension products [13]. - To mitigate risks associated with increased equity investments, it is essential to enhance the performance evaluation period for pension products and utilize financial derivatives for risk management, thereby improving the stability and growth of investment portfolios [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic significance of establishing a Chinese financial ESG rating system to enhance international discourse power and guide capital towards high-quality, sustainable development areas [2][4][6]. Group 1: Importance of Financial ESG Rating System - The Chinese financial ESG rating system plays a crucial role in directing capital towards national strategic areas, serving the real economy, preventing financial risks, deepening financial reforms, and maintaining financial sovereignty [4][6]. - ESG ratings are essential for the precise allocation of strategic resources in key and sustainable financial sectors, aligning with China's strategic priorities such as rural revitalization, green low-carbon initiatives, technological innovation, and the Belt and Road Initiative [4][6][8]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - In December 2023, the Central Committee and State Council issued guidelines to explore ESG evaluations, highlighting the importance of financial high-quality development and the need for financial institutions to enhance their ESG performance [5][6]. - The establishment of a financial ESG rating system is seen as a necessary step to respond to national sustainable development strategies and to participate in global financial governance reforms [5][6]. Group 3: Mechanisms and Benefits - The financial ESG rating system is a mechanism to safeguard national financial sovereignty by embedding Chinese parameters into the global asset pricing system, thus countering the systematic undervaluation of Chinese enterprises by international agencies [6][7]. - It enhances the ability of financial institutions to assess physical risks and optimize investment decisions, thereby improving the resilience of the financial system against climate shocks [7][8]. Group 4: Modernization of Financial Governance - Constructing a financial ESG rating system that reflects national strategic tasks and people's value orientation is vital for modernizing financial governance capabilities [8]. - The credibility of the financial ESG rating system will directly impact the international attractiveness of China's green finance market and the global pricing power of RMB assets [8].