文/ 工银国际首席经济学家 程实 、工银国际宏观分析师 周烨 2 0 25年1 0月2 1日，高市早苗成为日本史上首位女性首相，象征意义非 凡。她延续安倍三支箭，却以"早苗经济学"加码战略投资与产业升级，力 图破解通胀回温、增长乏力的结构性困局。财政扩张、货币维稳、供应链 强化共振，日债收益率曲线或陡峭化，日元短期承压、中长期仍获支撑， 更牵动亚洲资金再配置。 2025年10月21日，高市早苗当选为日本史上首位女性首相。这一具有象征意义的历史时刻，恰逢日本经济处于结构改革与周期调整交织的关键阶段，也令 外界对新政府的政策取向充满期待与关注。当前，日本通胀水平已逐步摆脱长期低迷区间，但其结构性特征仍存不确定性，内生需求与生产率提升的动力 尚显不足。面对通胀回升而增长乏力的局面，早苗经济学既是安倍经济学的传承，也是对当前经济结构的适应与创新。 总体理念上，高市延续了安倍时期的宏观政策思路，认为日本经济需要通过积极的政策干预来应对结构性停滞。在政策框架上，她依然保留安倍三支箭 ——宽松的货币政策、扩张性的财政政策以及结构性改革。然而，与安倍经济学相比，早苗经济学更加强调政策的结构导向与战略投资功能：在维持宽松 金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" in China, emphasizing the need to adapt to significant changes in the external environment and the importance of high-quality development to achieve modernization goals by 2035 [2][24]. Group 1: External Environment Changes - The new round of technological revolution is advancing, with artificial intelligence becoming a core area of competition, leading to increased pressure on China to enhance its independent innovation capabilities [3][27]. - Global supply chains are being restructured, shifting focus from cost and efficiency to security and stability, which presents both opportunities and challenges for China as the largest manufacturing center [3][29]. - The global governance system is undergoing transformation, with emerging multilateral mechanisms playing a significant role in addressing global issues, while traditional mechanisms struggle [3][30]. Group 2: Economic Development Characteristics - Economic growth is converging towards a medium speed, with contributions from labor diminishing due to demographic changes, while quality and efficiency are improving [4][44]. - New industrialization is advancing, with a shift towards digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in traditional industries, leading to the emergence of new manufacturing applications [4][45]. - Urbanization is transitioning from high-speed to medium-speed, focusing on improving the quality of urban life and public services [4][46]. - The green and low-carbon transition is entering a critical phase, with energy consumption growth slowing down and pollution emissions reaching peak levels [4][47]. Group 3: Market Development Strategies - Building a unified national market is essential for unleashing domestic demand potential and promoting high-quality development, requiring the removal of market barriers and the establishment of fair competition [5][10]. - The super-large market size provides significant advantages, including economies of scale, diverse production factors, and enhanced innovation capabilities, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [7][8][34]. - The construction of a unified market must address issues such as local protectionism and market segmentation to facilitate smoother resource flow and enhance market advantages [19][21]. Group 4: Challenges in Economic Development - Population decline and aging are accelerating, leading to a decrease in the labor force and impacting consumption demand, which poses a challenge to economic growth [39]. - Technological innovation is not yet aligned with the requirements for high-quality development, with insufficient investment in basic research and a lack of leading talents [40]. - The transition from traditional growth drivers to new ones is challenging, as sectors like real estate face significant adjustments, impacting overall economic performance [41]. - The pressure to shift traditional development methods is increasing, necessitating a focus on consumption-driven growth rather than investment and export-led strategies [42]. Group 5: Future Economic Trends - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for promoting high-quality development and transforming economic structures, with a focus on enhancing productivity and efficiency [43][49]. - The integration of new technologies and industries will drive economic growth, with strategic emerging industries expected to play a significant role in the future [36][38].

近日，《学习时报》刊登两篇关于资本市场可提振消费的文章，其中安徽 大学商学院院长 周泽将指出，稳定的股市不仅能够为实体经济注入更多 的资本活水，还能通过财富效应、心理效应和预期效应反向推动消费，增 强经济内循环的动力。与此同时，南京大学长江产业发展研究院常务院长 刘志彪、 南京大学长江产业发展研究院特约研究员 王茂祥则表示， 要 充 分发挥资本市场提振消费的作用，明确其传导机制与实践路径，有效提升 居民消费能力及消费潜力，推动消费市场持续繁荣，并以消费繁荣反哺企 业发展，增强企业可持续发展能力，促进经济循环畅通，为构建我国新发 展格局、推动经济高质量发展提供坚实支撑。 稳股市让老百姓的消费底气更足 文/安徽大学商学院院长 周泽将 股市是经济发展的晴雨表，关乎亿万家庭的财富增减与消费底气。 今年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》强调，"多 措并举稳住股市，加强战略性力量储备和稳市机制建设"，凸显稳股市在拓宽城乡居民财产性收入渠道、夯实老百姓消费底气方面的重要性。 截至10月10日，沪深两市单日成交额多次突破2万亿元，上证指数、深证成指和创业板指年内已分别上涨16.27%、28.24% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new changes facing the semiconductor industry chain, analyzing the characteristics of China's semiconductor industry development under these changes, assessing the financial needs of the semiconductor industry chain, and exploring how commercial banks can optimize their financial service models to support the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Current Changes in the Semiconductor Industry Chain - The semiconductor industry chain is experiencing new changes due to factors such as the post-Moore era, geopolitical risks, and tariff policies, leading to a need for commercial banks to optimize their financial services [3][4]. - The global semiconductor industry has undergone multiple shifts since its inception, with significant transitions occurring in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, resulting in a globalized division of labor [5]. - Since 2020, the stability of the semiconductor industry chain has been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical risks, leading to a trend towards diversification, localization, and regionalization [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The restructuring of global supply chains has led to increased local production, with countries like the U.S., Europe, and South Korea investing heavily in their semiconductor sectors [7][8]. - The semiconductor market is expected to see a significant recovery, with global sales projected to reach $630.55 billion in 2024, a 19.7% increase year-on-year, driven by demand for memory and logic chips [9]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that the global semiconductor market could exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 8% [9]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Advances in technology are accelerating in areas such as process architecture, advanced packaging, and materials, with significant developments in transistor technology and new materials like silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) [10][11]. Group 4: Characteristics of China's Semiconductor Industry Development - China's semiconductor industry has established a collaborative model in design, manufacturing, and testing, and is actively promoting self-sufficiency in the supply chain amid global challenges [12][13]. - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the semiconductor industry, aiming to overcome technological barriers and enhance competitiveness [13][14]. - The domestic semiconductor market has become the largest single market globally, with sales reaching $182.38 billion in 2024, accounting for 29.45% of the global market share [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance of China in the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a slight decline in GDP growth, a recovery in consumption, and ongoing challenges in manufacturing and infrastructure investment [4][6][12]. Economic Growth - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% [6][10]. - The total GDP for Q3 reached 354.5 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% [6][10]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, GDP growth was 5.2%, exceeding the annual target of 5% [6][12]. Consumption Trends - Overall consumption growth was slightly below expectations, with retail sales increasing by 3.0% in September, down from 3.4% [16][24]. - The retail sector showed structural differentiation, with categories like communication equipment and furniture experiencing significant growth, while home appliances and cultural products saw declines [20][24]. - Consumer spending growth lagged behind income growth, indicating a weak recovery in consumer confidence [24]. Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 371.5 trillion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by only 1.1% [29][44]. - Manufacturing investment saw a significant decline, with a 1.1 percentage point drop to 4% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of decline [33][34]. - Real estate investment dropped by 13.9%, with new housing sales down 5.5% in the first nine months [50][60]. Industrial Production - Industrial value-added saw a substantial rebound in September, growing by 6.5% year-on-year, driven by seasonal production increases and strong export performance [63][69]. - The "golden September and silver October" period contributed to this growth, alongside policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [69][70]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first three quarters, with a slight decrease in September [75][76]. - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with rates for individuals aged 18-24 reaching 18.9%, indicating ongoing pressures in the job market [77].

透视中国经济"三季报"释放的重要信号 中国经济"三季报"20日最新出炉：前三季度，国内生产总值（GDP）1015036亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。其中，三季度增长 4.8%。 这些重要数据的背后透出了哪些信号？ 信号一：中国经济延续稳中有进态势 前三季度，中国经济运行总体表现如何？ 国家统计局新闻发言人用三个"没有变"作出评价—— "经济平稳运行的主基调没有变""高质量发展扎实推进的态势没有变""经济韧性强潜能大的基本特性没有变"。 看经济增长： 前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，比上年全年和上年同期分别加快0.2、0.4个百分点；经济增量达39679亿元，同比多增1368亿元。 对中国这样超大体量的经济体而言，保持稳定发展已属不易，在各种风险挑战交织背景下仍体现了坚强韧性，则更显可贵。 再看就业物价： 前三季度，全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%，与上半年持平；全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比略降0.1%，但扣除食品和能源的核心CPI 上涨0.6%，其中9月上涨1.0%，涨幅连续5个月扩大。 最后看国际收支： 货物进出口规模创历史同期新高，增速逐季回升；9月末外汇储备继续保持在3.3万亿美元以上 ...

si 载 TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融评论 潘功胜:中国经济稳健增长,继续 发挥世界经济增长的主引擎作用 证监会修订发布《上市 公司治理准则》 Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 2025年 海A2 HB 2025年10月20日 . Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 | 目录 CONTENTS 241 | 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 潘功胜:中国经济稳健增长,继续发挥世界经济增长的 主引擎作用 重大会议 MEETINGS ◎ 财政部将继续提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额 重大政策 POLICIES ◎ 证监会修订发布《上市公司治理准则》 重大事件s ◎ 何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔就经贸关 系进行沟通 重要数字 DATA ◎ 我国2025年前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，第三季度增长4.8% ◎ 我国10日CPI同比下降0.3%、环比上涨0.1% 热点 聚焦 潘功胜：中国经济稳健增长，继续发挥世界经济增长的主引擎作用 01 2025年10月17日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在出席第52届国际货币与金融委员会（IMFC）系列会议时表示，受地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has led to significant changes over the past 70 years, with the financial industry playing a crucial role in promoting stability and development in the region. The insurance sector has evolved from a traditional compensation tool to a stabilizing and boosting force for high-quality development in Xinjiang [2][3]. Group 1: Foundation of Stability - The primary value of the insurance industry in Xinjiang is to maintain social stability by addressing public concerns and participating in grassroots governance, thereby safeguarding the well-being of families and contributing to overall regional security [4]. - The commercial insurance mechanism has effectively supported the establishment of a multi-layered medical security system, enhancing the efficiency of government health insurance work and improving the experience for the public [5][6]. Group 2: Collaborative Social Governance - The insurance industry has integrated into grassroots governance through innovative models like "police-insurance linkage," which enhances traffic safety management and reduces administrative burdens [7]. - The implementation of a "one-stop instant settlement" service has significantly improved the experience for patients facing high medical costs, demonstrating the positive impact of insurance on public welfare [6][7]. Group 3: Innovation and Best Practices - Xinjiang's insurance sector has developed innovative products and services tailored to its unique geographical and industrial context, creating replicable models for other regions [8]. - The "Assured Travel" insurance project in Kashgar exemplifies a government-backed initiative that provides comprehensive coverage for tourists, enhancing safety and promoting tourism [9]. Group 4: Empowering Industries - The financial sector has provided customized risk solutions to support the development of key industrial clusters in Xinjiang, facilitating significant risk coverage and enabling companies to focus on innovation and market expansion [12][13]. - The integration of technology in agricultural insurance has improved risk management and loss prevention, showcasing a proactive approach to disaster mitigation [14][11]. Group 5: Future Directions - The insurance industry in Xinjiang aims to align with national strategies, focusing on innovation and expanding inclusive financial services to enhance risk protection and support high-quality development [15][16]. - The sector is expected to leverage its strengths in cross-border trade insurance and ecological risk management to contribute to the broader economic landscape of Xinjiang [15].

编 者 按 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议20日上午在北京开始举行。中央委员会总书记习近平代表中央政治局向全会作工作报告，并就《中 共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。习近平总书记在党的二十届三中全会第二次全体会议上强调，要总结评估"十四 五"规划落实情况，切实搞好"十五五"规划前期谋划工 作。2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，要扎实推动高质量发展，高质量完成"十四五"规划 目标 任务，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 "十四五"期间，中国GDP规模持续突破110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元，2025年预计达到140万亿元左右。内需对经济增长的贡献率提高，2021 年至2024年，内需对经济增长的平均贡献率为86.4%，最终消费对经济增长的平均贡献率达到56.2%，比"十三五"期间提高8.6个百分点。居民消费持续恢 复增长，投资、贸易、金融领域发展动力和活力增强， 新质生产力加快形成，数字经济和实体经济深度融合，经济金融领域风险有效化解，经济社会高 质量新发展 格局 ...

" TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融购评论 文/ 国家金融监督管理总局上海监管局党委委员、副局长 曹光群 在充分研究论证、吸取借鉴国际经验、广泛征求意见的基础上，2025年7月，金融监管总局出台了《金融机构产品适当性管理办法》，要求金融机构提升 合规能力，严格履行适当性义务；培育金融消费者的风险意识，规避风险损失，推动"买者自负、卖者尽责"的理念在社会层面入脑入心。 为深入剖析金融机构在适当性管理方面存在的问题，上海金融监管局从重点机构、重点业务、重点环节入手，聚焦近年来投诉集中的信用卡领域，制定专 项行动方案，对辖内7家信用卡专营机构消保督查全覆盖。2024年，涉及信用卡违法线索的信访核查量同比下降69%，接收信用卡投诉同比下降19%。创 新探索现场与非现场相结合、监管与内审相联动的新模式，对36家次银行保险机构进行消保专项督查。 同时，积极回应社会关切，深入整治银行业代销领域乱象，多措并举规范互联网消费贷款业务，指导相关机构积极与官方平台开展合作，实质性审核识别 借款人身份，妥善处理风险隐患。督促银行保险机构切实提升保护广大金融消费者合法权益的意识和能力，推动构建"两全三头"工 ...