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21日投资提示:嘉泽新能股东拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2025-10-20 14:40
Group 1 - Shareholders of Jiaze New Energy plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [1] - Shareholders of Zhekuang Co. intend to collectively reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [1] - Shareholders of Nanjing Julong plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 2.94% of the company's shares [1] Group 2 - Convertible bonds such as Jiayue Convertible Bond and Kairun Convertible Bond will not undergo adjustments [1] - Various convertible bonds are listed with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [3][5] - For instance, the current price of Keda Convertible Bond is 128.087, with a conversion value of 128.37 and a remaining scale of 0.014 billion [3]
在A股,大部分时间空仓是明智选择?
集思录· 2025-10-19 14:37
Group 1 - The A-share market lacks effective short-selling tools, leading most investors to rely on long positions for profit [1] - The A-share market tends to hover around 3000 points, characterized by short bull markets and prolonged bear markets [1] - The majority of investors are ordinary individuals, making it extremely difficult to profit against the market trend [1] Group 2 - Many investors overestimate their trading skills, with A-share retail investors averaging 40 trades per year, which is eight times that of U.S. investors [2] - The market serves as a battleground for capital and a reflection of self-awareness, where short-term legends are common but long-term winners are rare [2][3] Group 3 - Continuous presence in the market is essential for understanding market dynamics; one cannot simply return with significant capital after a long absence [3][11] - The strategy of "buy low, sell high" is universally acknowledged, yet many fail to implement it effectively, often missing significant opportunities [12]
20日投资提示:巨星农牧股东拟减持不超2%股份
集思录· 2025-10-19 14:37
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that shareholders of Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 2% of the company's shares [1] - The last trading day for Pudong Development Convertible Bond is October 22, 2025 [1] - Hengbang Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption [1] Group 2 - Mengsheng Convertible Bond will not be subject to strong redemption [1] - Honglu, Hongtu, and Meinuo Convertible Bonds will not undergo price adjustments [1] - Yingliu Convertible Bond is set to be listed on October 22 [1] Group 3 - A table lists various convertible bonds, including their codes, names, current prices, redemption prices, last trading days, last conversion days, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [4][6] - For example, Keda Convertible Bond has a current price of 128.087, a strong redemption price of 101.858, and a last trading day of October 15, 2025 [4] - The remaining scale of Hengbang Convertible Bond is 29.342 billion, with a conversion value of 132.08 [6]
本周热点:闻泰转债有抄底的吗
集思录· 2025-10-17 14:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment strategies and opportunities, particularly focusing on convertible bonds and stock investments, while encouraging community engagement for sharing insights and experiences [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The article highlights discussions around the potential for arbitrage in convertible bonds, specifically mentioning "闻泰转债" as a topic of interest for investors looking to capitalize on price discrepancies [1]. - There is a call for advice on effective methods to earn small profits through investment strategies, indicating a community interest in practical financial tactics [1]. Group 2: Stock Investment Considerations - The article poses a question regarding the value of 万科A at a price of 6.4, suggesting that there is a debate on whether this stock is worth holding or investing in at its current valuation [1].
6.3的万科A值得珍惜吗?
集思录· 2025-10-17 14:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of Vanke, comparing it to past industry leaders like Changhong and Konka, suggesting that as the real estate market transitions from growth to saturation, Vanke's value may diminish similarly to these companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Context - The real estate industry was once a growth market, allowing Vanke to thrive as a leader, but it is now entering a saturation phase, which could lead to a decline in Vanke's performance [3]. - Historical examples from other industries, such as the film industry with Kodak and Fuji, illustrate how market leaders can fall when the industry loses its growth momentum [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Vanke's profits have significantly decreased over the years, with reported profits of 415 billion in 2020, dropping to 121 billion in 2023, and projected to be -494 billion in 2024, indicating serious financial issues [7]. - The company's market capitalization is 754 billion, with liabilities of 8,730 billion, suggesting a dire financial situation where the company would need to sell properties at an average price of 19,872 per square meter to break even [15]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - The article argues that value investing should consider the industry's health; if the industry is declining, even leading companies like Vanke may not retain their value [2][13]. - Comparisons are made with other companies like Moutai, which has shown increasing profits, highlighting that a declining stock price does not necessarily indicate a failing company if the fundamentals remain strong [9].
17日投资提示:精达股份实控人拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2025-10-16 15:20
Group 1 - The controlling shareholders of several companies, including Jingda Co., Xiaoming Co., and Shunbo Alloy, plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3%, 2.97%, and 2.08% respectively [1] - Hangxin Technology's original controlling shareholder intends to reduce their stake by up to 0.98% [1] - Jianlong Convertible Bond will not undergo a downward adjustment [1] Group 2 - A list of convertible bonds is provided, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [2][5] - Notable convertible bonds include: - Sanyang Convertible Bond with a current price of 126.154 and a conversion value of 127.38 [2] - Zhongchen Convertible Bond with a current price of 135.377 and a conversion value of 135.93 [2] - Jinxing Convertible Bond with a current price of 183.788 and a conversion value of 185.55 [2]
你的护城河是什么?
集思录· 2025-10-16 15:20
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of building an "irreplaceability" as a personal moat, which refers to unique competitive advantages that are difficult for others to replicate, thus providing long-term value and resilience against uncertainties in the job market and social value networks [2]. Summary by Categories Personal Moat Capabilities - Delayed gratification is highlighted as a key ability, indicating that the way one derives pleasure can either be easy or challenging [2]. - Self-reflection and the ability to summarize experiences are crucial for personal growth and learning [2]. - Focus is essential, suggesting that individuals should avoid distractions and maintain commitment to tasks [2]. - Learning agility is important, emphasizing the need for continuous learning and adaptation to new information [2]. - Resilience, described as "anti-fragility," is the capacity to recover quickly from setbacks and adjust effectively [2]. - Reverse thinking encourages independent thought processes, akin to the advice of Charlie Munger to think differently [2]. - Interdisciplinary integration skills are necessary to avoid a narrow perspective, as only knowing one field can lead to limited viewpoints [2]. - Empathy, which involves listening and understanding others' perspectives, is also considered a valuable trait [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy revolves around the principle that prices fluctuate around intrinsic value, with a focus on buying undervalued assets and leveraging when opportunities arise [3]. - The discipline to buy undervalued assets and sell when they reach normal valuation is emphasized, along with the importance of patience in investment decisions [3]. - The community of peers, such as members of investment forums, is viewed as a supportive moat, providing shared knowledge and insights [4]. - Learning from past mistakes and experiences is recognized as a significant aspect of developing a personal investment strategy [5]. - Acknowledgment of one's limitations in identifying great companies or short-term market movements is also noted [7]. - The importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to investing, including observing market trends without succumbing to greed or comparison, is highlighted [8].
16日投资提示:升24转债强赎
集思录· 2025-10-15 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the status of various convertible bonds, highlighting which bonds are subject to strong redemption, which are not, and providing details on their trading and conversion values [1][2]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Status - Sheng 24 Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption [1][2]. - Dongbao Convertible Bond, Zhengyuan Convertible Bond 02, and Yifeng Convertible Bond are not subject to adjustment [1][2]. - Huicheng Convertible Bond, Xinzhi Convertible Bond, and Tairui Convertible Bond are not subject to strong redemption [1][2]. Group 2: Trading and Conversion Details - The current price of Sanyang Convertible Bond is 126.154, with a strong redemption price of 100.490, and a conversion value of 127.38 [4]. - The current price of Zhongchen Convertible Bond is 135.377, with a strong redemption price of 100.580, and a conversion value of 135.93 [4]. - The current price of Jingxing Convertible Bond is 196.000, with a strong redemption price of 100.290, and a conversion value of 195.58 [4]. - The current price of PuFa Convertible Bond is 110.364, with a redemption price of 110.000, and a conversion value of 105.28 [6].
宝子们,我准备杠杆红利了
集思录· 2025-10-15 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The article presents a new investment strategy involving the use of margin accounts to buy dividend ETFs, aiming to enhance cash flow through leverage while managing risks associated with market fluctuations [1][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The strategy involves purchasing the CSI Dividend ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF, using a 0.7x leverage with a loan interest rate of 4% and an ETF dividend yield of 4.7%, which covers the interest cost [1][11]. - The expected annual cash flow from direct investment in dividends is 4.7%, which increases to 5.4% after accounting for interest when using leverage [1][11]. Risk Management - Historical maximum drawdown for dividend ETFs ranges from 20% to 30%, and with the proposed leverage, a 46% drop in the ETF price would trigger a margin call, which is considered unlikely [1]. - The exit strategy is to stop using leverage when the loan interest rate exceeds the ETF dividend yield [2]. Economic Scenarios - Scenario 1: Economic recovery leads to rising loan rates, resulting in a small profit from cash flow during the holding period [3]. - Scenario 2: Economic downturn causes a decrease in ETF dividends, leading to significant losses due to falling market value [4]. - Scenario 3: Bull market results in rising ETF prices but declining dividend yields, potentially leading to substantial profits [4]. - Scenario 4: Uncertain conditions where market movements are unpredictable [5]. Community Insights - Some community members express concerns about the strategy's suitability for short-term execution, suggesting a more cautious approach by waiting for better valuation opportunities before leveraging [6]. - Others highlight the importance of understanding the risks associated with leveraged investments, particularly in years when dividends may be weak [7]. Comparative Analysis - The article discusses the relative performance of dividend strategies compared to other investment strategies, noting that while dividend strategies are considered moderate, they may not outperform other high-frequency trading strategies [8][9]. - The potential annualized return from the leveraged dividend strategy is estimated at 14.2%, but the maximum drawdown could reach 59.5%, which is less favorable compared to many non-leveraged strategies [9]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the need for careful consideration of market conditions and personal risk tolerance when implementing leveraged dividend strategies, as well as the importance of having additional capital available to manage margin requirements [10][8].
15日投资提示:正川转债下修到底
集思录· 2025-10-14 14:18
Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of recent developments in the convertible bond market, including new issuances and important announcements regarding existing bonds [1][6]. Group 1: New Issuances - Jinlang will be available for subscription on October 17 [1]. - Super Electronics and Taikai Ying are also highlighted as new stock subscriptions on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange, respectively [1]. Group 2: Important Announcements - The announcement regarding the adjustment of Zhengchuan Convertible Bond was made on October 15, 2025 [1]. Group 3: Convertible Bond Data - A detailed table lists various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [3][5]. - For example, the current price of Jiuzhou Convertible Bond 2 is 123.799, with a strong redemption price of 102.040, and a conversion value of 125.18 [3]. - The remaining scale of Changji Convertible Bond is 4.964 billion, with a conversion value of 126.41 [3].