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宝子们,我准备杠杆红利了
集思录· 2025-10-15 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The article presents a new investment strategy involving the use of margin accounts to buy dividend ETFs, aiming to enhance cash flow through leverage while managing risks associated with market fluctuations [1][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The strategy involves purchasing the CSI Dividend ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF, using a 0.7x leverage with a loan interest rate of 4% and an ETF dividend yield of 4.7%, which covers the interest cost [1][11]. - The expected annual cash flow from direct investment in dividends is 4.7%, which increases to 5.4% after accounting for interest when using leverage [1][11]. Risk Management - Historical maximum drawdown for dividend ETFs ranges from 20% to 30%, and with the proposed leverage, a 46% drop in the ETF price would trigger a margin call, which is considered unlikely [1]. - The exit strategy is to stop using leverage when the loan interest rate exceeds the ETF dividend yield [2]. Economic Scenarios - Scenario 1: Economic recovery leads to rising loan rates, resulting in a small profit from cash flow during the holding period [3]. - Scenario 2: Economic downturn causes a decrease in ETF dividends, leading to significant losses due to falling market value [4]. - Scenario 3: Bull market results in rising ETF prices but declining dividend yields, potentially leading to substantial profits [4]. - Scenario 4: Uncertain conditions where market movements are unpredictable [5]. Community Insights - Some community members express concerns about the strategy's suitability for short-term execution, suggesting a more cautious approach by waiting for better valuation opportunities before leveraging [6]. - Others highlight the importance of understanding the risks associated with leveraged investments, particularly in years when dividends may be weak [7]. Comparative Analysis - The article discusses the relative performance of dividend strategies compared to other investment strategies, noting that while dividend strategies are considered moderate, they may not outperform other high-frequency trading strategies [8][9]. - The potential annualized return from the leveraged dividend strategy is estimated at 14.2%, but the maximum drawdown could reach 59.5%, which is less favorable compared to many non-leveraged strategies [9]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the need for careful consideration of market conditions and personal risk tolerance when implementing leveraged dividend strategies, as well as the importance of having additional capital available to manage margin requirements [10][8].
15日投资提示:正川转债下修到底
集思录· 2025-10-14 14:18
Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of recent developments in the convertible bond market, including new issuances and important announcements regarding existing bonds [1][6]. Group 1: New Issuances - Jinlang will be available for subscription on October 17 [1]. - Super Electronics and Taikai Ying are also highlighted as new stock subscriptions on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange, respectively [1]. Group 2: Important Announcements - The announcement regarding the adjustment of Zhengchuan Convertible Bond was made on October 15, 2025 [1]. Group 3: Convertible Bond Data - A detailed table lists various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [3][5]. - For example, the current price of Jiuzhou Convertible Bond 2 is 123.799, with a strong redemption price of 102.040, and a conversion value of 125.18 [3]. - The remaining scale of Changji Convertible Bond is 4.964 billion, with a conversion value of 126.41 [3].
工资和投资收入比多少才可以考虑全职?
集思录· 2025-10-14 14:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between work and investment, emphasizing that they are not mutually exclusive and should not be compared directly. It suggests that the decision to quit a job should be based on personal desire rather than financial comparisons with investment income [2][7]. Group 1: Work and Investment Relationship - Investment and work can coexist, and one should not measure one against the other. Quitting should be based on personal choice rather than financial performance [2]. - The act of quitting a job is essentially buying time, and it is crucial to consider how to utilize that time effectively [2]. - A stable job can provide a safety net for investments, allowing for better decision-making under pressure [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - The current job can be viewed as a cash flow equivalent to a significant investment, with a salary of 300,000 being comparable to a 7 million investment generating dividends [7]. - A suggested benchmark for considering full-time investment is when daily investment returns exceed annual salary [8][9]. - Achieving a consistent annual return of over 10% with a capital of 200-300 million is a potential threshold for transitioning to full-time investing [11]. Group 3: Personal Experiences and Insights - Personal experiences indicate that the decision to leave a job should be based on improved work conditions or validated investment capabilities rather than dissatisfaction with work [2]. - The article highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between investment and personal life, suggesting that a stable job can enhance overall well-being and investment performance [6][10].
14日投资提示:中国移动广州公司将所持56亿元浦发转债转股
集思录· 2025-10-13 14:18
Group 1 - The article discusses the strong redemption of certain convertible bonds, specifically the "Chengfeng Convertible Bond" and "Niutai Convertible Bond," both set for strong redemption on October 14, 2025 [1] - The "Yanpai Convertible Bond" is noted as not being subject to strong redemption [1] - The company "Qiaoyin Co., Ltd." is under scrutiny due to its subsidiary being listed as an executed person and a dishonest executed person, with three records of dishonesty as of September 27, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The article provides a table of various convertible bonds, detailing their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [4][6] - For instance, the "Jiuzhou Convertible Bond" has a current price of 123.799, a redemption price of 102.040, and a conversion value of 125.18, with a remaining scale of 0.037 billion [4] - The "浦发转债" (Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Convertible Bond) has a current price of 110.445, a redemption price of 110.000, and a remaining scale of 186.400 billion [6]
投资久了,会不会“认知疲劳”?
集思录· 2025-10-13 14:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "investment fatigue" among individual investors, highlighting the emotional and mental toll of managing investments alongside other responsibilities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Fatigue - Individual investors may experience "investment fatigue" after several years of active management, leading to feelings of exhaustion and disinterest in the investment process [1][2]. - Factors contributing to investment fatigue include complex strategies, overwhelming information, busy personal lives, and unsatisfactory investment performance [1][2]. - Some investors choose to simplify their strategies or take breaks when feeling fatigued, while others may feel compelled to continue despite the fatigue [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - There are two primary investment approaches: event-driven strategies (akin to mining for gold) and growth-oriented strategies (similar to cultivating apple trees) [3]. - The "apple tree" strategy is characterized by simplicity and predictability, allowing investors to manage their portfolios with less frequent oversight [3]. - Long-term holding of well-regarded assets is emphasized as a more effective and less stressful investment approach compared to frequent trading or complex strategies [2][3]. Group 3: Personal Experiences - Many investors report that as they gain experience, their investment returns stabilize while the time and energy they devote to investing decrease [4][5]. - Some investors find that the initial excitement of trading diminishes over time, leading to a more routine and less emotionally charged approach to investing [6][7]. - The psychological impact of losses becomes more pronounced over time, with investors feeling more stressed by drawdowns compared to earlier in their investing careers [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Mindset - Maintaining a comfortable investment zone can help alleviate anxiety and fatigue associated with investing [5]. - The process of learning and accumulating knowledge in investing can be exhausting, but breakthroughs can lead to more effortless and rewarding investment experiences [13]. - For some, investing is viewed as a lifelong hobby, which helps maintain enthusiasm and engagement in the process [12][14].
13日投资提示:闻泰科技147亿资产被冻结,10月13日复牌
集思录· 2025-10-12 14:07
公司于2025 年10月 2 日收到美国食品药品监督管理局(以下简称"FDA")出具的警告信,该警告信基于 FDA 在 2025 年 6 月 9 日至 2025 年 6 月 12 日期间对位于河北省秦皇岛市的公司进行现场检查的结果。针对公司出口至美国市场的医疗器械产品在生产、包装、储 存或安装等方面不符合美国联邦法规 21 CFR Part 820 医疗器械质量体系规范(QS regulation)要求的事项,提出相关检查意见和改进 要求。在该警告信关闭前,FDA 正在采取措施拒绝公司产品进入美国,直至这些违规行为得到解决。 公司 2024 年对美国实现销售收入 11,440.03 万元,占公司同期营业收入比重为 23.84%;2025 年上半年对美国实现销售收入 4,189.03 万元,占公司同期营业收入比重为 19.26%。因此,该事项未来可能会对公司在美国市场的正常经营活动产生一定影响。 易瑞生物:控股股东拟减持不超3%公司股份 博俊科技:控股股东拟减持不超2%公司股份 洛凯转债:强赎 汇通转债:下修到底 禾丰转债:不下修 闻泰科技:147亿半导体资产被荷兰冻结,10月13日复牌 康泰医学:FDA向公司 ...
明天会不会出现4月那样的大跌
集思录· 2025-10-12 14:07
Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that a significant market drop similar to April's is unlikely, emphasizing a deeper understanding of China's political and economic landscape is necessary to interpret current market conditions [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors express optimism about the A-share market, with one noting a recent increase in market value since entering the market [2]. - There is a belief that the current situation differs from April 7, with some arguing that the U.S. government shutdown may hinder the execution of tariffs [2][3]. - Various market participants, including those focused on dividends and macroeconomic research, believe that the market will not experience a significant downturn and may even rise [4][5]. Group 2: Sector Perspectives - Different sectors have varying outlooks, with technology stocks expected to attract more funds and not sell off during downturns [6]. - Military and rare earth stocks are anticipated to see a consolidation of funds, while resource stocks are expected to continue rising due to global monetary policies [7][8]. - Consumer sectors, particularly liquor and domestic consumption stocks, are predicted to see a return of funds and significant gains [9]. - Small-cap stocks are expected to benefit from a shift in investment style as large-cap stocks face potential declines [10]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is seen as having absorbed multiple negative news cycles, leading to expectations of a rebound [11]. Group 3: Market Predictions - The overall conclusion is a forecast of a strong market opening and a potential five-day rally [12]. - Some investors predict a minor drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, with expectations that it will not exceed a 100-point decline [14]. - There is a sentiment that while many stocks may drop, certain sectors will see gains, particularly in blood products and software alternatives due to U.S. restrictions [21].
要不要带亲戚投资?
集思录· 2025-10-10 14:16
Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and complexities of helping friends and relatives invest, highlighting the emotional and financial risks involved [1][5][12]. Investment Methods - **Account Buyout System**: The author previously used a method where friends' accounts were used to buy stocks, with profits shared. However, returns have diminished in recent years due to lower new stock profits [2]. - **Proportional Sharing System**: A model where the author invests 300,000 while the counterpart invests 100,000, sharing profits and losses. This method has yielded an annualized return of about 20% over the years [3]. - **Short-term Borrowing**: The author borrows money from trusted friends to invest in new stocks, repaying quickly, which has proven beneficial for both parties involved [4]. Emotional and Relational Dynamics - The author emphasizes the emotional toll of investing with close relatives, noting that expectations can lead to significant strain in relationships, especially during losses [6][11]. - There is a strong sentiment that helping others invest can lead to misunderstandings and conflicts, particularly when financial outcomes do not meet expectations [7][10]. Personal Experiences - The author shares past experiences of helping relatives invest, which often resulted in mixed outcomes, reinforcing the idea that different individuals have varying risk tolerances and investment knowledge [12][13]. - The article concludes that while it may seem beneficial to assist others in investing, the potential for relationship damage and emotional distress often outweighs the financial benefits [8][9].
为啥美股可以一直涨,A股却只能震荡
集思录· 2025-10-09 15:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting nature of the US and A-share markets, highlighting that the US market is a "blood-generating" market while the A-share market is a "blood-letting" market, primarily due to the different regulatory and operational frameworks in place [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2022, the US market saw a significant inflow of capital through buybacks and dividends totaling $2 trillion, while only $208 million was raised through IPOs, indicating a stark imbalance in capital inflow and outflow [2]. - The A-share market has experienced a net capital outflow of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan annually from 2018 to 2022 due to various factors such as IPOs, private placements, and management fees, which far exceed the capital generated through dividends [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework in A-shares is designed to facilitate capital raising, with policies that encourage IPOs and other fundraising activities, often at the expense of existing shareholders [3]. - Recent measures introduced by the new leadership aim to address the capital outflow issue by limiting the number of IPOs and enhancing the quality of listings, which has led to a temporary bull market [3]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - The article suggests that the lack of short-selling mechanisms in the A-share market contributes to a predominance of bullish sentiment among investors, leading to market volatility [1][12]. - In contrast, the US market allows for short-selling, which can act as a stabilizing force, enabling investors to profit from declining stocks and thus contributing to a more balanced market environment [1][12]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The article posits that the differences in market structures reflect broader economic ideologies, with the US market benefiting from capitalist principles that promote competition and innovation, while the A-share market is seen as more controlled and less dynamic [10][12]. - The implications of these market dynamics extend to the wealth distribution in both countries, with the US market's performance being closely tied to the fortunes of its large corporations, while the A-share market's structure may exacerbate wealth inequality among retail investors [9][18].
10日投资提示:中环转债复牌
集思录· 2025-10-09 15:02
Group 1 - Zhonghuan Environmental Protection plans to change its controlling shareholder to Beijing Dingyuan, with stock and convertible bonds resuming trading on October 10 [1] - Qiaoyin Co., Ltd. shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 6% of the company's shares [1] - Enjie Convertible Bonds are subject to forced redemption [2] Group 2 - Huati Technology has some bank accounts frozen, with a total of 34,115,009.33 yuan frozen, accounting for 4.10% of the company's latest audited net assets and 16.25% of its latest audited cash [1] - Lichong Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Weijing Intelligent for robotics [2] - Shengxun Convertible Bonds will not be adjusted [2] Group 3 - A table of convertible bonds includes details such as current price, redemption price, last trading day, last conversion day, conversion value, remaining scale, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stock [3][6]