集思录
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19日投资提示:富春染织实控人拟减持不超1%股份
集思录· 2025-09-18 14:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in various companies and convertible bonds, highlighting share reduction plans, technology contracts, and new stock listings. Group 1: Share Reduction and Convertible Bonds - The actual controller of Fuchun Dyeing and Weaving and its concerted actors plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 1% of the company's shares [1] - Lu Shan Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption [1][2] - Song Sheng Convertible Bond will not undergo strong redemption [1][2] - Jiu Qiang Convertible Bond and Yang Feng Convertible Bond will not be adjusted [1][2] Group 2: Technology Contracts and New Listings - Fengshan Group signed a technology development contract with Tsinghua University for sodium-ion battery electrolyte and solid-state lithium-ion battery electrolyte projects [1] - New stocks from Yunhan Chip City and Ruili Kemi are available for subscription on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]
现在的公寓约等于可转债?
集思录· 2025-09-18 14:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and risks associated with investing in apartments, particularly focusing on taxation and land use rights, which significantly impact potential appreciation and returns on investment. Group 1: Taxation Issues - The taxation on property transactions, including deed tax and value-added tax, can be substantial, reducing the net profit from property sales significantly [4][2][9] - For example, selling an apartment purchased for 400,000 and sold for 800,000 incurs various taxes totaling approximately 266,000, which includes deed tax, value-added tax, individual income tax, and land value increment tax [4][2] - The land value increment tax is particularly burdensome, as it can consume a large portion of any appreciation in property value [2][4] Group 2: Land Use Rights - The issue of land use rights is critical, as non-residential properties typically have a 40-year usage period, after which high renewal fees are required, effectively necessitating a new purchase [2][9] - The renewal process for land use rights in cities like Shenzhen has been established, but it still poses a financial burden on property owners [7][8] Group 3: Investment Returns - The actual returns on investment in apartments may be significantly lower than expected due to depreciation, property management fees, and increasing taxes, with real returns potentially dropping to 1-3% after accounting for these factors [9] - The competition from government-subsidized rental housing also poses a threat to the rental income potential of apartments, as these alternatives have lower holding costs [9]
终于知道为什么牛市要拿住不动!
集思录· 2025-09-17 14:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of stock market rotation, emphasizing the difficulty of successfully timing investments and the psychological pressures involved in trading during a bull market. Group 1: Market Behavior and Strategies - The stock market often breaks established habits, leading to unexpected trends such as major upward or downward movements [3][8] - Many investors struggle with rotation strategies, often resulting in losses when trying to switch from strong to weak stocks [8][9] - A simpler approach suggested is to focus on strong sectors and hold positions rather than frequently rotating [4][10] Group 2: Investment Psychology - The psychological pressure of trading can lead to poor decision-making, especially in a bull market where investors may feel compelled to act [4][9] - The belief that weak stocks will eventually rise is often misguided, as their lack of interest from investors is what keeps them down [2][8] - The article highlights that successful investing often requires a mindset shift away from trying to time the market perfectly [3][11] Group 3: Rotation Strategies - A specific rotation strategy for convertible bonds is described, focusing on selecting bonds with certain criteria and adjusting positions based on performance [5][6] - The importance of objective decision-making in rotation strategies is emphasized, as subjective choices can lead to losses [9][14] - The article suggests that many rotation strategies are often seen as unreliable or even deceptive, particularly when they promise consistent profits [11][12]
18日投资提示:银邦股份股东拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2025-09-17 14:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the planned reduction of shareholding by a major shareholder of Yinbang Co., Ltd., with a maximum reduction of 3% of the company's shares, alongside updates on various convertible bonds regarding their redemption status [1]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Actions - Yinbang Co., Ltd. has a shareholder intending to reduce their stake by up to 3% [1]. Convertible Bonds Status - Keda Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption [2]. - Run Da Convertible Bond and Rui Chuang Convertible Bond are not subject to strong redemption [2]. Convertible Bonds Details - A table lists various convertible bonds with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stock. For example: - Yaoshi Convertible Bond has a current price of 131.680, a redemption price of 100.620, and a conversion value of 132.19 with a remaining scale of 0.020 billion [4]. - Honghui Convertible Bond has a current price of 170.634, a redemption price of 101.685, and a conversion value of 171.97 with a remaining scale of 0.006 billion [4]. - Other bonds listed include Zhenghai, Xizi, and ZJian, with varying prices and conversion values [4][6].
把A股账户全部清仓了
集思录· 2025-09-16 13:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's decision to liquidate their A-share account and invest in fixed-term financial products, expressing a belief that the market may continue to rise but also a fear of potential losses based on past experiences [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The author believes that the market trend indicates a potential rise above 4000 points, possibly reaching 4500 points, but expresses skepticism based on previous market cycles [1]. - The current bull market has seen a significant increase, with a rise from 2635 to 3870 points, representing a growth of approximately 46.87% [5]. Group 2: Personal Investment Strategy - The author shares their investment history, indicating that they built positions in the Hong Kong technology sector and A-shares, ultimately withdrawing their principal and leaving only profits [1]. - The strategy of liquidating positions to avoid potential losses is emphasized, with the author reflecting on past experiences of losing profits and principal during market downturns [1][3]. Group 3: Timing and Market Behavior - The article highlights the difficulty of timing the market, noting that many investors miss opportunities by selling too early or waiting too long to re-enter [5]. - It is suggested that any exit during a bull market can be seen as a correct decision, as the market's unpredictable nature makes it challenging to sell at peak points [7][11]. Group 4: Psychological Aspects of Investing - The author discusses the psychological impact of market fluctuations on investors, suggesting that emotional responses can lead to poor decision-making [10]. - The importance of maintaining a connection to the market, even with reduced positions, is emphasized to stay informed and engaged [11].
9月17日投资提示:原来我才是小丑
集思录· 2025-09-16 13:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Shanghai Construction's stock is not a good investment due to its low profit margins and high debt levels [1] - Shanghai Construction has a gross margin of less than 10% and a net margin as low as 1%, indicating a highly competitive and challenging business environment [1] - The company's debt ratio is as high as 86%, with accounts payable amounting to 160 billion, which poses significant financial risks [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that despite the poor financial metrics, Shanghai Construction's stock has increased by over 60% since September 2013, outperforming the state-owned enterprise index ETF, which rose by 40% [1] - The author reflects on the importance of value investing, long-term investment, and diversification, suggesting that many investors may overlook these principles [1]
北京房子租售比1.6%合理吗?
集思录· 2025-09-15 14:10
Core Viewpoint - The rental market pricing is influenced by the supply-demand relationship, with rental prices being determined by those who cannot afford to buy homes, while home prices are set by wealthier individuals [1][2]. Group 1: Rental Market Dynamics - The rental market is considered to have higher pricing efficiency due to the immediate financial impact on landlords from vacancy, leading to more competitive pricing [2]. - The average rental yield in major international cities ranges from 4% to 6%, indicating a disparity with local rental yields [9]. - The rental prices are expected to decline further due to oversupply and economic conditions affecting demand [8][12]. Group 2: Investment Perspectives - Some investors find the current rental yields unreasonable, citing the instability of property values and the low returns compared to other investment opportunities [4][6]. - The perception of property as a negative asset is growing, with reports of significant declines in rental prices over recent years [11]. - The supply of new homes in cities like Beijing is significantly lower compared to other cities, which affects pricing dynamics [12].
16日投资提示:汇通转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-09-15 14:10
Group 1 - The article discusses various convertible bonds, including proposals for adjustments and shareholder actions regarding stock reductions [1][4][6] - Huayong Convertible Bond is currently priced at 134.700 with a redemption price of 100.790, and its last trading day is September 14, 2025 [4] - The article lists several convertible bonds with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading days, and conversion values, indicating market activity and potential investment opportunities [4][6] Group 2 - Fulong Technology's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 2.51% of the company's shares [1] - Longxing Technology's shareholders intend to reduce their holdings by no more than 1% of the company's shares [1] - The article provides a detailed table of various convertible bonds, including their remaining scale and market capitalization ratios, which can be useful for investors assessing their positions [4][6]
15日投资提示:晶科能源股东拟询价转让4%股份
集思录· 2025-09-14 13:19
Group 1 - The estimated subscription amount for Jin Hua New Materials is projected to be 850 billion CNY, with some estimates reaching up to 900 billion CNY [1] - The estimated winning rate for subscriptions is 0.066% [1] - The issue price for Jin Hua New Materials is set at 18.15 CNY, with a public offering market value of 5.63 billion CNY [1] Group 2 - Shareholders of Jinko Solar plan to transfer 4% of the company's shares through inquiry [1] - Shareholders of Jianlong Micro-Nano intend to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% [1] - The controlling shareholder of Mars Man plans to reduce their holdings by no more than 2.94% [1] Group 3 - The strong redemption of Hao 24 convertible bonds has been announced [3] - Tianyuan convertible bonds will not be strongly redeemed [3] - Jianfan convertible bonds and Yongdong convertible bonds will not undergo adjustments [3]
苦中作乐,谈一谈你是如何躲牛市的
集思录· 2025-09-14 13:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emotional and psychological challenges faced by investors during a bull market, highlighting the disparity between individual performance and market trends, as well as the importance of maintaining a balanced mindset in investment strategies. Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Performance - Many investors express frustration over low returns despite a booming market, with some reporting only a 10% gain while others see much higher returns [1] - A significant portion of investors, approximately 60%, have experienced losses over the past decade, even as indices reach new highs [3] - The emotional toll of missing out on gains can lead to anxiety and poor decision-making, as seen in the case of those holding underperforming assets like convertible bonds [8][10] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Mindset - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective, treating investment as a marathon rather than a sprint, which can lead to more satisfying outcomes [3] - The importance of risk management is emphasized, with some investors maintaining low exposure to high-risk assets, resulting in modest but stable returns [5] - Adapting strategies based on market conditions, such as shifting from one asset class to another, can help mitigate feelings of loss and improve overall sentiment [10][14] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Asset Performance - The performance of specific assets, such as the浦发转债, has been disappointing, with a significant drop in premium rates despite the underlying stock's rise [8][9] - Investors are advised to remain flexible and consider alternative investments if current holdings do not perform as expected, highlighting the need for adaptability in investment approaches [10][14] - The article suggests that understanding market cycles and adjusting positions accordingly is crucial for long-term success [12][14]