以下文章来源于橙子不糊涂 ，作者橙子 橙子不糊涂 . 88年，集成电路背景，主要写科技，偶尔聊聊宏观和新鲜事儿。 今天交易时段就有彭博的信息，胜宏科技拟赴港上市。晚上公司正式披露公告： 其实没什么好聊的，说5个产业方面的观点： 1， 对于之前传统PCB⾏业，大规模扩产对于投资来说100%是坏事… 过去PCB行业的景气周期是2年， 扩产周期也基本就是1年多，客户产品需求出来，产能扩出价格就掉的比较糟糕。 过去若干年除了国内5G的2年周期，其他主要领域是消费电子、汽车电子等缺乏超级创新的行业，本身 就很"传统"， 在技术上缺乏门槛，什么有价值的新玩意儿都没有，毫无know-how可言 ，大厂小厂拼的 是对周期、客户需求的理解，以及够"狂野"，看到机会够狠、够卷。 2，目前PCB拼的是高端PCB的技术+产能储备，以及新材料、高多层以及HDI的Konw-how储备， 门槛 极高，且技术迭代和升级极快。 （1） 高端货奇缺 。客户看中的是你能承诺多少产能，多少良率； （2） 只有极少数几个巨头可以扩产 （设备周期至少10个月）。其他连扩产的资格都没有，因为既采购 不到设备，又没办法完成巨头客户的认证。 3，在这个超级周 ...

加入"中国IC独角兽联盟"，请点击进入 7月20日，台积电嘉义科学园区的建筑工地发生一起板车倾覆事故。涉事车辆当时载重约 50 吨，目前暂 无人员伤亡消息。 由于短期连续爆出四起重大事故，台湾地区当局"职安署"已全面叫停台积电在嘉义科学园区的机电工程 作业。 转自：国芯网 7月21日消息，据台媒报道， 由于台积电短期内连续爆出四起重大安全事故，台湾省当局已全面叫停台 积电在嘉义科学园区的工程作业！ 7月16日，台积电嘉义厂区工地发生一起意外，厂房高空安装重达数百公斤的机电用冰水管过程中，冰 水管意外掉落，直接砸中下方女工人，造成其头部重创，救护人员到场后紧急将其送往医院治疗，但18 日上午被宣告死亡。报道说，这是该厂区两个月以来第四起工业安全意外。 事故发生于16日16时左右，台积电嘉义科学园区先进封装厂AP7厂房内，当时工人正在进行机电用冰水 管安装作业，一个重达200至500公斤的冰水管，疑未完全固定，从5至6米高处意外坠落砸中地面的一名 女性工人。女子随后被紧急送往医院救治，因脑部出血持续接受治疗，于18日死亡。 台媒报道称，台积电嘉义厂区两个月内发生4起工业安全事故，已造成2死2伤。 报道回顾这两个月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary investigation report of the Air India Flight AI171 accident highlights critical details regarding engine fuel switch malfunction and pilot communications, while also sparking a debate on the reliability of BGA (Ball Grid Array) packaging technology in aviation applications [1][3][12]. Group 1: Accident Investigation Findings - The Air India AI171 accident report was released 30 days post-incident, adhering to ICAO guidelines, and includes key operational records and data anomalies [1]. - The report attributes the accident to fuel control switch misoperation, but alternative theories regarding engine control system failures have emerged [2][12]. Group 2: BGA Technology Insights - BGA packaging technology has revolutionized electronic device design, allowing for high-density connections, which are crucial in aviation electronics [5][10]. - The GEnx-1B engine's EEC utilizes a 144-ball BGA package, significantly improving heat dissipation compared to traditional packaging, thus enhancing operational safety [7][10]. Group 3: Reliability Challenges - BGA technology faces reliability issues in extreme aviation environments, with potential solder joint failures due to thermal cycling and vibration [8][12]. - The solder joint void rate for aviation-grade BGA must be below 5%, contrasting with consumer electronics standards, highlighting the critical nature of solder integrity in flight [7][8]. Group 4: Mitigation Strategies - Advanced materials and design strategies are being employed to enhance BGA reliability, such as using titanium-nickel alloy solder balls and ceramic substrates to reduce thermal stress [10][11]. - Redundant design strategies in avionics, such as dual-channel BGA architectures, are implemented to minimize the impact of potential failures [11][12]. Group 5: Future Innovations - NASA is developing "self-healing BGA" technology that can autonomously repair solder joint cracks, showcasing potential for future aerospace applications [13].

以下文章来源于玉渊谭天 ，作者谭主 玉渊谭天 . 7月15日， 英伟达公司创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋到访中国并表示 ，将开始向中国市场销售H20 芯片。 据报道，H20的推理能力仅为H100的20% ，是阉割版。 简单逻辑看复杂世界 2012年，谷歌的一个研究小组公开了一个叫做"谷歌猫"的研究项目。 他们将16000个计算机处理器连接起来，建造了一个超大规模的机器学习神经网络，让它在海量 图片中自主学习，最终成功识别出了"猫"。 "谷歌猫"项目，揭示了人工智能时代的临近。这个时代，也火了一家企业——英伟达。 人工智能的发展，简单来说，需要三个元素： 算法、算力和数据。 芯片的性能影响着算力，而英伟达， 在AI芯片市场的占有率高达70%以上 。 正是这种"天下英雄尽入彀中"的局面，让英伟达的股价一路飙涨。 2012年至今，英伟达的市值上涨500多倍，一度成为全世界第一家市值突破4万亿美元的公司。 用这样的芯片去发展人工智能，是否意味着"起步即落后"？ "算力焦虑"，再次被推至台前。 算力比算法和数据都重要吗 ？ 简单逻辑看复杂世界 YU YUAN TAN TIAN 这是英伟达的股价走势图。可以看到，在今年1月，英 ...

以下文章来源于芯片小韭菜 ，作者芯片小韭菜 芯片小韭菜 . 专注芯片行业及公司基本面研究，不提供操作建议。 寒武纪要定增，回答了一个问询函，里面有一些信息还是值得看一看。 寒武纪募投项目全部投向云端，未来公司重点就在云端了： 公司云端收入从24年Q4开始爆发： | | | | | | | 早饭: 月儿 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2025年1-3月 | | 2024 年度 | | 2023 年度 | | 2022 年度 | | | | 金额 | 比例 | 金额 | 比例 | 金额 | 比例 | 金额 | 比例 | | 云端产品 线 | 110.900.40 | 99.94% | 116,627.85 | 99.31% | 9,056.51 | 12.80% | 21,944.89 | 30.37% | | 边缘产品 线 | 65.66 | 0.06% | 654.20 | 0.56% | 1,082.45 | 1.53% | 3.783.77 | 5.24% | | 智能计算 集群系统 | - | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on imported graphite from China, resulting in a total tariff rate of 160%, significantly impacting $347.1 million worth of imports in 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The anti-dumping duty is based on claims that Chinese graphite products, essential for electric vehicle batteries, are sold below fair market value in the U.S. [1]. - The trade organization representing U.S. active anode material manufacturers argues that this practice undermines the competitiveness of local suppliers [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Graphite is a critical material in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries, specifically as the main component of battery anodes [4]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for graphite, with approximately 180,000 tons imported last year, two-thirds of which came from China [4]. Group 3: Future Uncertainty - The preliminary ruling by the U.S. Department of Commerce is not final, with a conclusive decision expected by December 5, creating uncertainty for U.S. automakers [4]. - Anticipation of increased graphite prices due to tariffs poses challenges for automotive manufacturers, whose profit margins are already declining [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of AI models, particularly focusing on DeepSeek and its challenges in maintaining user engagement and market position against emerging competitors like Kimi and others in the "AI Six Dragons" group [3][4][8]. Group 1: DeepSeek's Performance and Challenges - DeepSeek experienced a significant decline in monthly active users, dropping from a peak of 169 million in January to 160 million by May, a decrease of 5.1% [3][4]. - The app's download ranking has plummeted, falling out of the top 30 in the Apple App Store, indicating a loss of user interest [4]. - The user engagement rate for DeepSeek has decreased from 7.5% at the beginning of the year to 3% by the end of May, with website traffic also down by 29% [4][5]. Group 2: Competition and Market Dynamics - Competitors like Kimi and others are rapidly releasing new models, with Kimi K2 being highlighted for its performance and open-source nature, achieving state-of-the-art results in various benchmarks [10][11]. - The pricing strategy of Kimi K2 aligns closely with DeepSeek's, offering competitive rates for API usage, which could further erode DeepSeek's market share [11]. - Other players in the market are also emphasizing cost-effectiveness and performance, challenging DeepSeek's previously established reputation for value [10][11]. Group 3: Technological and Strategic Implications - DeepSeek's R2 model has faced delays due to supply chain issues related to the NVIDIA H20 chip, which has impacted its computational capabilities [5][7]. - The lack of significant updates to DeepSeek's models has led to a perception of stagnation, with competitors rapidly advancing in both performance and features [8][10]. - The article suggests that DeepSeek needs to quickly release new models and enhance its capabilities to regain market interest and user engagement [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - Yushu Technology is set to launch its IPO in 2025, aiming to submit its listing application to either the A-share main board or the Sci-Tech Innovation Board within the year, highlighting its growth and market potential in the robotics industry [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2016 by Wang Xingxing, Yushu Technology has developed core technologies for quadruped robots since 2013, with its XDog model causing a stir in the industry due to its low cost and high performance [2]. - The company has launched several successful products over the years, including the Laikago quadruped robot in 2017, the Aliengo in 2019, and the Go1 consumer robot in 2021, which broke market norms with a price point of around 10,000 yuan [2]. - Yushu has achieved 100% localization of core components, with its self-developed high-torque density motors costing only one-third of similar international products and its harmonic reducers being 60% cheaper than Japanese brands [2]. - The company has filed over 280 domestic and international patents, with 210 granted, establishing a strong technological moat in areas such as robot motion control algorithms and multi-modal perception systems [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Financial Performance - Prior to the IPO, Yushu Technology completed multiple rounds of strategic financing, with a post-investment valuation reaching 12 billion yuan after a C-round financing led by major industry players like China Mobile, Tencent, and Alibaba [3]. - The company has been profitable for four consecutive years, with revenues of 200 million yuan and a net profit of 10 million yuan in 2023, projected to grow to 400 million yuan in revenue and 70 million yuan in net profit in 2024, and expected to exceed 200 million yuan in net profit in 2025 [3]. - Yushu's profitability is notable in the generally loss-making robotics industry, supporting a 150% increase in its valuation compared to 2023 [3]. Group 3: Industry Landscape - The global robotics industry is transitioning from industrial automation to general-purpose humanoid robots, with the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology identifying humanoid robots as "disruptive products" [4]. - Market research predicts a compound annual growth rate of 33% for the domestic robotic dog market from 2024 to 2030, with the humanoid robot market expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030 [4]. - Yushu Technology differentiates itself from competitors like Tesla by adopting a "hardware cost reduction + consumer market penetration" strategy, rapidly capturing the C-end market through products like Go1 and G1 [4]. - The G1 robot has a daily rental price in the secondary leasing market reaching thousands of yuan, with orders scheduled until the fourth quarter of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Future Prospects and IPO Plans - Yushu Technology plans to use the funds raised from the IPO for the construction of an intelligent training center for humanoid robots, expansion of production capacity at its Lingang factory, and the establishment of global R&D centers [5]. - Based on a projected net profit of 200 million yuan in 2025, the company's valuation post-IPO could exceed 16 billion yuan, with some optimistic estimates reaching 30 billion yuan due to industry growth expectations [5]. - The timing of the IPO coincides with favorable policy changes in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which supports the listing of unprofitable tech companies, further enhancing Yushu's "hard tech" label [5].

Core Viewpoint - The potential lifting of U.S. restrictions on AI chip sales to China could significantly boost market demand in the semiconductor industry, benefiting companies like ASML, NVIDIA, and AMD [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Policy Changes - ASML's CFO Roger Dassen indicated that lifting the restrictions would positively impact global chip demand [2]. - NVIDIA has received U.S. government approval to export previously banned H20 chips to China, with AMD following suit with a similar announcement [1][2]. - The relaxation of chip export restrictions could lead to billions of dollars in revenue for NVIDIA and AMD, marking a significant shift in U.S. policy [2]. Group 2: ASML's Market Position and Outlook - ASML, as a leading manufacturer of advanced chip-making equipment, stands to benefit if its customers' production and sales expectations rise [2]. - However, ASML has lowered its growth forecast for 2026 due to increasing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Dassen emphasized the uncertainty surrounding U.S. restrictions and its potential effects on the semiconductor market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic share exchange between leading global chip distributor Wun-Yeh and Taiwan's largest passive component distributor, Nidec, highlighting the benefits and implications of this partnership for both companies in the semiconductor industry [2][7][11]. Group 1: Share Exchange Details - Wun-Yeh announced a share exchange with Nidec, increasing its stake in Nidec to 36% at a 21% premium, while Nidec's stake in Wun-Yeh rises to 5% [3][5]. - The share exchange ratio is approximately 1 share of Nidec for 0.668 shares of Wun-Yeh, with both companies maintaining independent operations post-exchange [3][5]. - This is not the first collaboration between the two; Wun-Yeh previously invested 13.2 billion NTD in Nidec in 2022, becoming its largest single shareholder [5][12]. Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The share exchange aims to deepen strategic cooperation, allowing both companies to leverage each other's strengths without cash transactions [9][11]. - The partnership is expected to enhance operational performance and shareholder value by expanding market reach and improving service to global suppliers and customers [12][13]. - Wun-Yeh's experience in supply chain management and Nidec's established market presence are anticipated to create synergies in the passive components sector [12][19]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth - Wun-Yeh has been actively expanding through acquisitions, achieving significant revenue growth from 144.15 billion NTD in 2016 to 353.15 billion NTD in 2020, and further to 571.2 billion NTD in 2022 [18][19]. - The company is projected to reach 959.43 billion NTD in revenue by 2024, marking a 61.38% year-on-year increase, and is positioned as the leading global chip distributor with a market share of 12.2% [19][23]. - The collaboration with Nidec is seen as a strategic move to enhance Wun-Yeh's presence in the passive components market, which has higher profit margins compared to traditional IC distribution [20][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the partnership may help Wun-Yeh mitigate potential losses from the cancellation of its agency rights with ADI and diversify its market presence [21]. - As the third quarter approaches, Wun-Yeh is optimistic about maintaining strong performance, driven by AI applications and increased demand in the mobile sector [23][24]. - The success of this partnership and Wun-Yeh's ability to join the "trillion club" in revenue will be closely watched in the coming months [25].