本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 2025年以来，A股市场整体呈现上涨态势，市场活跃度大幅提升，结构性行情特征明显。Choice数据显示，截至12月19日，上证指数、深证成 指、创业板指分别累计上涨16.07%、26.17%、45.79%，日均成交额达1.72万亿元。从板块表现来看，科技、军工、有色金属等板块表现较好， 寒武纪、比亚迪、宁德时代等屡创新高，北证50指数年内最高涨超60%。 在强势的市场行情下，私募基金经理的股票策略收益表现也较为亮眼。 私募排排网数据显示，截至今年 12月19日，至少有3只股票策略产品符 合排名规则且有业绩展示的基金经理共有319位，股票策略平均收益为36.64%，跑赢同期上证指数、深证成指。 不过，在不同热点交替影响的市场环境下，大资金进出频繁，对投资者持仓体验有一定的影响。其中，夏普比率便成为衡量基金经理在股票市场 中平衡收益和风险的能力的一个重要指标。 数据显示， 319位基金经理股票策略平均夏普为1.44；其中，百亿私募基金经理表现最好，平均夏普 达到1.79。 [应监管要求，私募基金不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global precious metals market has shown strong performance, with significant price increases in gold, silver, and platinum due to expectations of falling real interest rates, recurring geopolitical risks, and rising demand for "non-credit assets" [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals, particularly silver, have outperformed gold, with silver showing remarkable price elasticity in the current market [2] - The main silver futures in China have seen continuous price increases in Q4 2025, breaking through previous high points, accompanied by rising trading volume and open interest, indicating a surge in market sentiment [5][7] Group 2: Drivers of Silver Price Increase - The price performance of silver futures in Q4 2025 is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, industrial fundamentals, and funding behaviors [7] - International markets have re-evaluated silver's "financial attributes," placing it alongside gold as a hedge against monetary credit and policy uncertainties [8] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust, particularly from the photovoltaic, new energy, and electronics sectors, with tightening supply-demand dynamics further supporting price increases [9] - Silver has become a "sentiment amplifier" in the precious metals sector, attracting speculative and trend-following funds due to its higher elasticity and active trading compared to gold [10] Group 3: Volatility and Risk Management - The implied volatility of silver futures options has surged, indicating market expectations of significant future price fluctuations, which may lead to increased risk for investors [12] - In the current high-volatility environment, managing risk and position sizes is more critical than simply maintaining a bullish outlook on precious metals [14] - Fund managers holding gold futures or stocks are advised to consider the extreme levels of silver's implied volatility, which may indicate a shift to a sentiment-driven pricing phase for precious metals [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the challenges of consistently outperforming in the private equity market, particularly in the context of the rapidly changing capital market environment since 2023, highlighting the importance of fund managers' research capabilities and strategy adaptation [2]. Summary by Strategy Quantitative Long-Only - A total of 16 quantitative long-only products have consistently ranked in the top tier from January to November 2023, 2024, and 2025, with notable contributions from firms like Minghong, Maoyuan, and Hanrong [2]. - As of November 2025, there are 640, 462, and 325 quantitative long-only products reported for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 16 products making it to the top 30% in all three years [3]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from firms including Huijing Asset, Shanghai Zijie Private Equity, and Abama Investment [3]. Subjective Long-Only - There are 14 subjective long-only products that have maintained top-tier rankings across the same periods, with notable firms like Kaishi Private Equity and Yidian Najin included [7]. - The number of subjective long-only products reported as of November 2025 is 1,089, 979, and 838 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 14 products achieving top 30% rankings in all three years [7]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from Beiheng Fund, Ding Tai Sifang (Shenzhen), and Guangdong Guangjin [8]. CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) - A total of 12 CTA products have consistently ranked in the top tier from January to November 2023, 2024, and 2025, with leading products from Guanjing Fund and other firms [13]. - The number of CTA products reported as of November 2025 is 256, 226, and 187 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 12 products making it to the top 40% in all three years [13]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from Guanjing Fund, Gongqingcheng Guangju Xinghe Private Equity, and Caoben Investment [14]. Multi-Asset - There are 22 multi-asset products that have consistently ranked in the top tier from January to November 2023, 2024, and 2025, with significant contributions from firms like Luyuan and Junfu [18]. - The number of multi-asset products reported as of November 2025 is 414, 337, and 265 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with only 22 products achieving top 40% rankings in all three years [18]. - The top five cumulative return products since 2023 are from Luyuan Private Equity, Henan Zhi Ying Private Equity, and Junfu Investment [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the "cross-year market" period is characterized by significant industry rotation and style switching rather than a straightforward market trend, with historical patterns indicating mixed performance across indices [2][4]. - Over the past decade, major broad-based indices have shown an average decline during the cross-year period, with the average returns for the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 indices in January being -4.71%, -6.67%, and -6.68% respectively, indicating a win rate below 50% [2][4]. - The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices have shown average returns of -0.72% and -1.54% in January, with a win rate of 50% over the last ten years, suggesting a relatively stronger performance compared to smaller indices [2][4]. Group 2 - The article highlights that the characteristics of the cross-year market are not indicative of a general beta market trend, but rather a "defensive December and strong differentiation in January" structure, with defensive sectors performing better in December [7][12]. - In January, the banking sector has consistently outperformed other sectors, maintaining a position among the top five in terms of monthly returns, except for 2020 and 2023 [7][12]. - The average returns for most sectors in January have been negative, with many sectors showing win rates of only 30-40%, indicating a lack of broad-based gains and a tendency for performance differentiation [7][12]. Group 3 - Historical statistics suggest that the cross-year phase is not a favorable period for quantitative long strategies to achieve excess returns, but rather exposes differences in strategy concentration, drawdown control, and volatility adaptation [12]. - For investors holding quantitative long private equity funds, the focus during the cross-year period should be on assessing the ability of their products to maintain net value stability in a volatile and differentiated environment [12]. - From an asset allocation perspective, it is advisable to consider complementary configurations of styles and assets to smooth out portfolio volatility, particularly given the banking sector's relative strength in January [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of private equity trust products in China, highlighting the significant returns achieved by various private equity firms and the concentration of assets among top firms [4][8]. Summary by Sections Private Equity Trust Overview - Private equity trusts are essentially trust plans issued by trust institutions, combining the investment capabilities of private equity managers with the regulatory advantages of trust companies [2][3]. Performance of Private Equity Trusts - As of December 24, 2023, 183 securities private equity firms managed a total of 1,926 trust products, with an average return of 19.40% for the year [4]. - The top 43 private equity firms managing over 100 billion yuan had an average return of 21.08% across 1,330 trust products [4][7]. Top Performing Private Equity Firms - The top three private equity firms in terms of average returns for trust products this year are: 1. 聚鸣投资 (Juming Investment) 2. 淡水泉 (Freshwater Spring) 3. 开思私募 (Kaishi Private Equity) [8][10]. - Notable firms like 景林资产 (Jinglin Asset) and 高毅资产 (Gao Yi Asset) also performed well, ranking among the top [12][13]. Performance by Firm Size - For firms with assets between 50-100 billion yuan, the average return was 18.76%, with top performers including 彤源投资 (Tongyuan Investment) and 常春藤资产 (Ivy Capital) [14][15]. - In the 20-50 billion yuan category, 巨杉资产 (Jushen Asset) led with an average return of 8.94% [18][19]. - For firms below 10 billion yuan, 从容投资 (Congrong Investment) topped the list with significant returns [26][27]. Investment Strategies - Many of the top-performing firms employ stock-focused strategies, with a strong emphasis on fundamental analysis and risk management [11][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, highlighting the factors contributing to this trend and its implications for the capital market and investment opportunities in China [4][6]. Group 1: Reasons for RMB Strengthening - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a combination of external and internal factors. Externally, the weakening of the US dollar has acted as a catalyst, driven by expectations of a shift towards looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in the dollar index since mid-December [7]. - Internally, the supply and demand dynamics for foreign exchange have supported the RMB. High trade surpluses and seasonal demand for currency exchange towards the year-end and Chinese New Year have historically resulted in a strong RMB [7][8]. Group 2: Implications for Capital Markets - From a mid-term perspective, the macroeconomic fundamentals of China may become relatively favorable compared to the US, as the US economy shows signs of slowing growth while China maintains clear growth targets [9]. - The strengthening of the RMB may enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors, potentially improving market sentiment and risk appetite in the domestic capital market [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Core A-shares and high-dividend sectors are highlighted as areas of interest, with stable exchange rates likely to improve risk preferences and attract foreign investment. Key indices such as the CSI 300 and related ETFs are recommended [12]. - Domestic demand-driven sectors, including consumption, healthcare, and utilities, are suggested as suitable for long-term investment, given their alignment with RMB-denominated asset performance [13]. - Technology growth assets, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence and renewable energy, are noted for their high investment value during a weak dollar period, with specific funds recommended for consideration [14][15].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 近3年来，A股市场经历了一轮相对完整的"压力测试"周期：从2022年的趋势性调整，到漫长的底部盘整，再到新一轮的结构性行情启动。在这 一过程中，β收益贡献显著降低，市场核心矛盾转向基金经理"深度选股"与"风格把控"。 因此，笔者根据所属私募公司规模，分别统计出近3年年化收益十强的私募基金经理名单，看看在这场"压力测试"中，哪些基金经理交出了亮眼 答卷。 0 1 100 亿以上：但斌居前！君之健独占 3 席！ 截至2025年11月底，来自百亿私募且"在私募排排网上至少3只产品符合排名规则及有近3年业绩展示"的基金经理共有48位，近3年年化收益十强 的上榜"门槛"为 *** %。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募产品不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资者可扫码查看收益数据。] 近3年年化收益排在前3的私募基金经理依次是： 姜云飞（久期投资）、但斌（东方港湾）、谢晓阳（天演资本） ，近3年年化收益分别为 *** %。（ 点此查看收益 ） 位列第 3的是天演资本创始人之一的谢晓阳 ，其近3年符合排名规则且有业绩展示的产品共有11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of quantitative macro strategies in the private equity industry has become a focal point, with a significant increase in adoption and performance compared to traditional subjective macro strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Growth of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Since 2020, hedge funds employing quantitative macro strategies have seen an average annual growth rate of over 15%, significantly outpacing traditional subjective macro strategies [2]. - As of November, the average return for 195 macro strategy products was 25.50%, with subjective macro strategies yielding 26.42% and quantitative macro strategies at 21.42% [2]. - The Sharpe ratio for quantitative macro strategies reached 2.11, compared to 1.57 for subjective macro strategies, indicating better risk-adjusted performance [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Popularity - The global macro environment has become increasingly complex, making traditional decision-making methods less effective. Events like the COVID-19 pandemic and rising inflation have highlighted the need for more adaptive strategies [3]. - Quantitative macro strategies have successfully avoided severe losses by utilizing real-time market liquidity monitoring and stress testing models, prompting a reevaluation of investment methodologies [3]. Group 3: Characteristics of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Quantitative macro strategies utilize systematic, data-driven models to analyze relationships between macroeconomic variables and asset prices, allowing for automated or semi-automated asset allocation and trading [7]. - Key features include data-driven decision-making, systematic investment processes, multi-dimensional analysis, and a strong focus on risk management [8]. Group 4: Types of Quantitative Macro Strategies - Strategies can be categorized into five types: 1. Fundamental Quantitative Strategies: Based on economic indicators like GDP and inflation [10]. 2. Systematic Trend Following: Identifying momentum factors through price trends [11]. 3. Cross-Asset Relative Value: Arbitraging pricing discrepancies across different markets [12]. 4. Machine Learning Macro Forecasting: Using advanced algorithms to predict economic cycles [13]. 5. Macro Factor Investing: Capturing risk premiums based on growth, inflation, and liquidity factors [10]. Group 5: Differences Between Quantitative and Subjective Macro Strategies - Subjective macro strategies rely on the personal insights and intuition of fund managers, while quantitative macro strategies are based on data, models, and statistical patterns [14]. - Quantitative strategies offer greater scalability and consistency in performance, while subjective strategies are more prone to volatility and depend heavily on individual managers [15][16]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The evolution of quantitative macro strategies represents a necessary advancement in macro investment methodologies in the data era, emphasizing the importance of integrating human judgment with machine capabilities [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The equity market has shifted to a high volatility and weak trend oscillation pattern since the third quarter, leading to reduced profitability for investors, highlighting the increased value of CTA strategies that can participate in multiple assets and directions [2] Market Environment - The recent trend characteristics of the equity market are weakening, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 showing increased volatility since September, indicating a lack of consistent upward movement [8] - The commodity market is experiencing significant differentiation, with certain commodities like gold, silver, lithium carbonate, and copper showing clear upward trends despite overall limited gains in commodity indices [10][11] CTA Strategy Performance - Historical data indicates that CTA strategies provide stable and independent returns across various market environments, particularly excelling in years when equity and commodity performances are weak [16][19] - In years of strong equity performance, such as 2017, 2019, and 2020, CTA strategies performed well but were not the top performers, serving as a complementary strategy to equity assets [17][18] CTA Strategy Characteristics - In 2025, CTA strategies are expected to operate in an environment characterized by trends and volatility, with potential for structural trends in the commodity market due to global liquidity conditions and geopolitical factors [23] - The correlation of CTA strategies with equity indices is relatively low, indicating their role as stabilizers in asset allocation, providing positive contributions without significantly increasing portfolio correlation [22]

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a long-term endeavor, shifting focus from short-term speed to long-term sustainability over periods of 3 to 5 years [2] Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced a small cycle over the past three years, moving from a downturn in 2022 to a bottom consolidation in the first half of 2024, followed by a sustained upward trend since the "9.24 market" [2] - All three major A-share indices have shown varying degrees of increase, but significant internal structural differentiation and rapid thematic rotation have notably reduced beta returns [2] Group 2: Performance of Private Equity Funds - The article categorizes private equity funds based on their management scale, identifying the top performers in terms of average returns over the past three years [2] - The top three private equity firms in the over 100 billion category are Kai Si Private Equity, Dongfang Gangwan, and Junzhijian Investment, with average returns of ***% [3][4] Group 3: Notable Private Equity Firms - Kai Si Private Equity, founded in 2009, focuses on the Hong Kong stock market with a core investment philosophy of value investing and long-term returns [4][5] - Dongfang Gangwan, led by Dan Bin, has shown impressive performance with an average return of ***% across 70 products over the past three years [5][7] - Shengqi Asset and New Thinking Investment lead the 50-100 billion category, with average returns of ***% [8][9] Group 4: Emerging Trends and Insights - Dan Bin emphasizes that the greatest risk in financial markets is not market fluctuations but the ability of held assets to create value over the long term [7] - The article highlights a growing optimism regarding AI applications, predicting 2026 as a significant year for AI development [7]