Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][14]. Core Views - The company's share repurchase announcement reflects confidence in long-term performance, with a planned repurchase amount between 1.8 billion and 3.6 billion RMB, at a maximum price of 13 RMB per share, aimed at enhancing investor confidence and supporting employee stock ownership plans [3][4]. - The domestic excavator market is recovering faster than expected, with Q1 2025 sales reaching 19,517 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%. The company, as a leading player in the excavator industry, is well-positioned to benefit from this demand recovery [4][5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 90.32 billion, 100.66 billion, and 115.46 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.95 billion, 7.80 billion, and 10.26 billion RMB. The price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted at 16, 12, and 9 times for the same periods [6][11]. - The company has shown strong leadership in various sectors, holding the top position in 16 categories of machinery in China and maintaining a leading global position in several others, including mobile cranes and concrete machinery [5]. Market Analysis - The report indicates a strong recovery in the domestic excavator market, with the company expected to fully benefit from the upward cycle in domestic demand [4]. - The company's robust market position is supported by its leading share in multiple machinery categories, ensuring a solid competitive advantage [5].

（2）电子布：中游制造环节稀缺的供给新增偏少品种，3 月复价 落地较为充分。单价方面，25Q1 行业 7628 电子布均价约 4.14 元 /米，同比+22.8%、环比+1.8%。价格环比修复，主因系 2 月 24 日 起巨石、泰玻等电子布主流企业发布调价函，上调 7628 价格 0.3 元/米。24Q4 以来下游需求较为旺盛，消费电子市场逐步回暖，同 时 AI、5G、新能源汽车等带来行业新增需求，同时行业供给新增 偏少，22H1 以来行业长期陷入经营压力，供给端存在推涨动力。 业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 8 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报预增公告：25Q1 公司 预计实现归母净利 7.01-7.36 亿元，同比+100-110%；扣非归母净 利 7.06-7.57 亿元，同比+320-350%。我们认为 Q1 业绩表现靓丽， 主因玻纤下游应用需求增加，Q1 产品销量同比提升，同时自去年 以来、玻纤价格逐步走出周期底部，同比明显修复。 经营分析 （1）粗纱：淡季不淡，基本面继续逐季改善。①单价方面，25Q1 全国缠绕直接纱 2400tex 均价为 3766 元/吨，同比+22.3%、环比 +2.3%。价 ...

截至 2025 年 4 月 7 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 城投债： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.6%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级； 其余区域中，吉林、云南、青海等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率普遍下行，各期限品种下行幅度 均大于 10BP，其中 1 年内品种平均下行 15BP。具体来看，下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1 年内浙江区县级永续、1 年内 湖北区县级永续、3-5 年青海地级市非永续、1 年内海南省级永续城投债等。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 3%以下；收益率高于 4.5%的品种出现 在贵州地级市、云南地级市、辽宁地级市；其余的宁夏、黑龙江、广西等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债 收益率同样悉数下行。具体来看，收益率下行幅度较大的有 1 年内山东地级市永续、1 年内贵州省级非永续、1 年内 山西区县级非永续、1 年内西藏地级市非永续城投债，分别对应下行 37.3BP、33.2BP、23.1BP 和 22.7BP。 产业债： 民企地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比， ...

- The "CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index" was launched by the China Securities Index Company in 2024 to optimize traditional dividend stock selection logic through dynamic screening mechanisms and volatility control rules[2][32] - The index selects 50 stocks with continuous dividends and high expected dividend yields, using a "expected dividend yield" selection method combined with a dividend yield and volatility weighting mechanism to avoid the "high dividend trap" and ensure selected stocks have stable dividend capabilities and low volatility[2][32][39] - The index's construction process includes selecting stocks with continuous dividends over the past three years, calculating the expected dividend yield based on disclosed cash dividend plans, and weighting by the ratio of dividend yield to volatility[39][41] - The index has shown superior performance with higher annualized returns, lower volatility, and smaller maximum drawdowns compared to other dividend indices, demonstrating its value in long-term asset allocation[2][33][37] Model Performance Metrics - CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index, annualized return: 19.66%, annualized volatility: 24.60%, Sharpe ratio: 0.88, maximum drawdown: 64.82%[37] - Dividend Low Volatility 100 Total Return Index, annualized return: 17.87%, annualized volatility: 24.47%, Sharpe ratio: 0.81, maximum drawdown: 64.02%[15][37] - CSI Dividend Total Return Index, annualized return: 14.14%, annualized volatility: 25.86%, Sharpe ratio: 0.75, maximum drawdown: 72.13%[15][37] - CSI All Share Total Return Index, annualized return: 11.00%, annualized volatility: 26.29%, Sharpe ratio: 0.50, maximum drawdown: 71.48%[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - The "expected dividend yield" factor is constructed by calculating the dividend yield based on disclosed cash dividend plans and adjusting for stock price at the end of April[39][41] - The factor is evaluated positively for its ability to avoid the "high dividend trap" and ensure selected stocks have stable dividend capabilities and low volatility[2][39] - The index's weighting method, which uses the ratio of dividend yield to volatility, effectively controls annualized volatility and enhances risk-adjusted returns[39][41] Factor Performance Metrics - CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index, dividend yield: consistently higher than other dividend indices during the period from September 30, 2024, to March 31, 2025[38] - The index's constituent stocks have a net asset return rate of approximately 10.5% and the lowest asset-liability ratio among compared dividend indices, indicating high profitability and low debt risk[54][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 29.838 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.14%, and a net profit of 5.693 billion RMB, up 46.01% year-on-year [3][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 7.340 billion and 8.980 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 23.35% to 50.91%, and a net profit between 1.420 billion and 1.740 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 24.69% to 52.79% [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic semiconductor equipment market, with expectations of increased market share due to the ongoing trend of domestic substitution [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.838 billion RMB, a 35.14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.693 billion RMB, up 46.01% year-on-year [3][10]. - The Q1 2025 forecast indicates revenue of 7.340 to 8.980 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 23.35% to 50.91%, and a net profit of 1.420 to 1.740 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 24.69% to 52.79% [3]. Operational Analysis - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share due to the domestic substitution trend accelerated by new U.S. regulations on semiconductor equipment [4]. - As a leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion plans of domestic storage manufacturers and advanced process technology [4]. - The company has successfully developed new products, enhancing its product matrix and solidifying its position as an industry leader [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 29.838 billion, 38.836 billion, and 46.902 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.1%, 30.2%, and 20.8% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 5.693 billion, 7.668 billion, and 9.809 billion RMB, with growth rates of 46.0%, 34.7%, and 27.9% respectively [5]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 10.7, 14.3, and 18.4 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 18, and 14 [5].

基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 2025/4/7 资产配置 收益贡献拆分 持有人结构 持仓特征 1 2 3 4 大固收体系（主动管理） 现金管理策略 纯债策略 混合资产策略 货币市场基金 短期纯债基金 中长期纯债基金 一级债基 转债型基金 转债风格型基金 二级债基 "固收+转债" "固收+权益" 偏债混合型基金 灵活配置-偏债 分类说明：wind二级分类为"可转换债券型基金"及"兴全可转债"判定为"可转债型基金"；近4个季度转债持仓（占资产净值比）均值在40%以上且不为"转债型基金"的判断为"转债风格型基 金"；基金类型为灵活配置型，近1年权益仓位均值小于40%，且近1年债券仓位均值大于60%的，判定为灵活配置型-偏债基金。 2 3 4 5 6 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 基金成立日 | 基金经理 | 基金规 | 机构持有份 | | 近1年回报(%) | 近1年回报排名 | 近1年年化波动率(%) 近1年波动率排 | | 名（由小到大） 近3年回报(%) 近3年回报排 | | 近3年年化波 | 近3年波动率排 | 基金类型 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq 股指期货市场概况 从整体表现来看，上周四大期指均有一定程度下跌，沪深 300 期指跌幅最大，幅度-1.37%，上证 50 期指跌幅最小， 幅度为-0.84%。上周 IF、IC 和 IM 主力合约贴水幅度均收窄，IH 主力合约贴水幅度加深。IF、IC、IM 和 IH 期指均为 贴水状态。 全部合约角度看，较上周而言，四大期指当月、下月、当季和下季合约的平均成交量有升有降，其中 IH 上升幅度最 大，为 2.84%，IM 下降幅度最大，为-2.77%。四大期指上周最后一个交易日的合计持仓量均上升，其中 IF 上升幅度 最小，为 6.43%，IM 上升幅度最大，为 10.86%。 基差水平方面，截至上周四收盘，IF、IC、IM 和 IH 当季合约的年化基差率分别为-3.14%、-11.27%、-13.66%和- 0.79%，较上周最后一个交易日，IH 期指贴水幅度有所加深，IF、IC 和 IM 期指贴水幅度均有所收窄。指数分红影响 已被定价较为充分，关注基差结构变化展示的交易情绪指引。 跨期价差方面，截至上周四收盘，IF、IC、IM 和 IH 新的当月合约与下月合约的跨期价差 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well, driven by stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and market expansion [2][4]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the long-term outlook remains positive [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the expected EPS is 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 46, 23, and 17 times [4]. - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from 11,168 million CNY in 2023 to 19,489 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.45% [7]. - The net profit is expected to recover from 1,303 million CNY in 2024 to 3,451 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong rebound in profitability [7].

ETF 轮动因子跟踪 1. 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 2. 策略依据一定的假设通过历史数据回测得到，当交易成本提高或其他条件改变时，可能导致策略收益下降甚至出 现亏损。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 我们对前期使用 GBDT+NN 机器学习因子构建的 ETF 轮动策略进行跟踪测试，发现因子在样本外表现出色：上周 IC 值 达 26.88%，多头超额收益率为 1.46%。策略的年化超额收益率为 11.89%，信息比率为 0.68 ，超额最大回撤为 17.31%， 上周超额收益率 1.05%，本月以来超额收益率 0.56%，今年以来超额收益率-0.72%，近期表现优异。 高频因子跟踪 我们对前期挖掘的高频选股因子进行跟踪测试，发现因子在样本外整体表现出色。就上周表现来看，价格区间因子多 头超额收益率-0.25%，价量背离因子 0.66%，遗憾规避因子 0.55%，斜率凸性因子 0.55%。本月以来，价格区间因子多 头超额收益率为-0.25%，价量背离因子 0.66%，遗憾规避因子 0.55%，斜率凸性因子 0.55%。今年以来高频因子表现整 体都比较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well. The revenue is anticipated to grow due to stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and the expansion of the compliant market [2]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the overall profit impact is seen as temporary [3]. - The company is rationally addressing tariff impacts on its HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business, with a focus on markets in Japan and Europe, while the growth logic for HNB remains unchanged [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 11,168 million CNY, with a projected growth rate of -8.04% for 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.79%, 23.78%, and 20.45% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,645 million CNY, with a significant decline of 34.47% expected in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery [7]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46, 23, and 17 [4][7].