业绩简评 2025 年 7 月 17 日公司披露 25Q2 业绩，25Q2 公司实现营收 300.7 亿美元，同比增长 44.4%，环比增长 17.8%，毛利率为 58.6%，同 比+5.4pcts，环比-0.2pcts，实现净利润 128.0 亿美元，同比 +60.7%，环比+10.2%。 公司指引 25Q3 营收为 318~330 亿美元，毛利率为 55.5%~57.5%， 营业利润率为 45.5%~47.5%。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们认为，公司作为晶圆代工龙头企业，在最先进制程上与竞争 对手优势愈发明显，有望充分受益 AI 芯片需求增长。未来看，AI 有望带动端侧产品创新，公司也有望受益 AI 手机、机器人等端侧 应用起量。我们预计公司 25~27 年净利润分别为 496.86、603.79、 667.68 亿美元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 下游需求不及预期；美国关税风险；研发进度不及预期；行业竞 争加剧；美国制裁加剧。 经营分析 公司毛利率下滑主要因新台币升值导致，公司收入按照美元计价， 报表则会转化为新台币计价。公司所在晶圆代工行业属重资产行 业，折旧占营业成本比重较大，导致新台币升值会对公 ...

基本内容 OBBB 法案的光速通过得以让特朗普在 7 月 4 日留下耀眼的政治成果，也反映出了他在国内事务更强的掌控力。而过去 一个月在对外事务相对沉寂的他或将活力再现，且变得更加强硬，因此 TACO 的反噬风险正在增加。债务上限的解决 也意味着财政部即将发行更多短债以补充 TGA，这会加剧降息诉求，带来新旧联储主席间更激烈的唇枪舌战。 1）大美丽法案落地后，财政将更多"做减法"，呈现出更为明确的减支倾向； 2）对外关税和国际关系重塑更加"务实且激进"，TACO 的反噬风险增加； 基于此，我们认为 25H2 美国存在三个"灰犀牛事件"： 3）新旧联储主席对降息态度差异引发混乱，影子联储主席或拥有"市场主导权"。 无论是预测所谓的"灰犀牛"或是"黑天鹅"，总是困难的，更重要的是沿着"拒绝线性外推"这个逻辑支点去思考： 特朗普达成目标的路径是运动的，但根本诉求（即重返美国的黄金时代）是静止的。 风险提示 1）中东局势不确定性加剧像显著推升油价水平，从而带来更明显的美国通胀。2）特朗普的内政政策面临更大阻力， 财政刺激加码，联储超预期宽松。3）美国金融市场波动加剧，非美资金外流加速，美元加速下跌，引发美国深度衰 退 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the local bond stock reaching 52 trillion yuan as of July 11, 2025. The issuance and trading of local government bonds showed certain characteristics in terms of scale, type, term, and investor structure [11][4][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of July 11, 2025, the local bond stock reached 52 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21%. The major investment areas of special bonds were shantytown renovation, park and new - district construction, and rural revitalization, with stock balances of 1.97 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balances of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and those of water conservancy and ecological projects were over 200 billion yuan. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong had the largest local bond stocks, with 3.42 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.15 trillion yuan respectively, and other GDP - large provinces also had local bond stocks over 2 trillion yuan [11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 231.791 billion yuan were issued, including 134.406 billion yuan of new special bonds and 704.21 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bonds were "ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds". As of July 17, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in July had reached 28.632 billion yuan, accounting for 3.74% of the monthly local bond issuance. The 7 - 10 - year local bonds had a relatively high issuance proportion of 40.67%. The average coupon rates of major - term local bonds were basically the same as two weeks ago. The interest - rate spreads between 30 - year and 20 - year local bonds and the corresponding - term treasury bonds narrowed slightly. The upper limit of the tender interest rate dropped significantly compared to two weeks ago, and the primary - market bidding sentiment was sluggish. Two provinces, Inner Mongolia and Guizhou, had new bond issuances last week, with Inner Mongolia issuing 6.89 billion yuan mainly in terms within 7 years and 7 - 10 years, and Guizhou issuing 40.832 billion yuan mainly in 20 - 30 - year terms, and the issuance interest rates were below 2% [4][26][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yields of local government bonds have been on a continuous downward - trending oscillation. As of July 11, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.78%, and the interest - rate spread with the corresponding - term treasury bonds was 11.47BP, at the 14.6% quantile in the past 24 years. The quantiles of price differences for 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 28.1% and 52.6% respectively. The trading turnover rates of major - term local bonds increased slightly last week, with the highest weekly turnover rate of 0.82% for bonds over 10 years. Guangdong had the most trading transactions last week, with over 50 transactions. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 17.3 years, and the average yield was 1.91%. Commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 33.574 billion yuan, and the purchase proportion of 20 - 30 - year and above varieties reached 73.52% [5][38][43].

上市险企披露半年度保费情况。 人身险：银保高增驱动寿险保费高速增长，分红转型+高基数，代理人渠道预计普遍低迷。2025H1，新华、太保增速 人身险分别同比+22.7%、+9.7%，预计由新单保费与续期保费共同拉动。太保披露了具体数据，其中新单保费增长 20.6%， 主要由银保渠道+90.2%拉动，个险、团险分别-20.0%、+6.3%。 财产险：增速整体放缓。2025H1 太保、众安分别同比+0.9%、+9.3%，其中太保车险、非车险分别+2.8%、-0.8%，业 务选择持续。众安增速放缓预计主要受退运险业务压降影响，健康险、车险仍旧延续高增长。 寿险板块基本面过度悲观预期改善带来的价值重估预计将继续，叠加二季报好于预期有望带来股价催化（Q2 单季利 润大部分公司有望正增长）。基本面积极因素涌现：1)监管导向行业降成本，利好大公司。2）利差拐点有望在明年出 现，过度悲观的利差预期正在修复。存量负债成本预计明年开始下降；险资增配权益，市场红利结构性机会与险资投 资风格适配，综合投资收益率中枢预计相对稳定；头部寿险公司的利差安全垫充足。3)销售端在产品转型期，银保市 占率大幅提升，提升趋势将延续。当前估值仍然非常 ...

氢能与燃料电池行业研究 2025 年 07 月 16 日 买入（维持评级） 行业深度研究 证券研究报告 氢能组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：唐雪琪（执业 S1130525020003） tangxueqi＠gjzq.com.cn 绿色航运驱动绿氢消纳破局，开启绿醇千万吨级机遇窗口 绿氢消纳是关键，绿色航运打开需求。近几年绿氢项目申报非常积极，截至 2025 年 6 月，绿氢项目备案对应绿 氢产能高达 760 万吨，增长非常迅速。但是与之对应的是不够理想的项目开工率，仅达到 24%，对应约 180 万吨绿氢 产能。现阶段，量的爆发和价的下行趋势明确，行业的商业化关键集中在形成一个可持续盈利的商业模式上，下游找 到能接受绿氢及其衍生产品价格的场景是整个绿氢产业爆发的关键点之一。2025 年 4 月，国际海事组织（IMO）海洋 环境保护委员会（MEPC）第 83 次会议通过了全球航运业首个法律约束性净零排放框架，根据 IMO 程序，MEPC 83 通过 的修正案草案将在 2025 年 10 月举行的 IMO 特别会议上提交。一旦获得采纳，预计将在 1 ...

2025 年 07月 16日 宏观经济点评报告 国金证券研究所 分析师:宋雪涛 (执业 S1130525030001) 联系人:张馨月 zhangxinyue@gjzq.com.cn songxuetao@gjzq.com.cn 核心是以人为本的新型城镇化——中央城市工作会议学习解读 基本内容 中央城市工作会议 7 月 14 日至 15 日在北京举行。会议明确当前和今后一个时期城市工作将"以推进城市更新为抓 手",目标是"建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市"。 此次中央城市工作会议的核心思想是以城市更新为抓手，加快推进以人为本的新型城镇化。通过补齐基本公共服务短 板,推进农业转移人口市民化,释放中低收入群体和农村转移人口的消费潜力,推动经济由"制造大国"向"消费大 国"的转型。 风险提示 对政策的理解存在偏差,城市更新的节奏和力度低于预期。 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 中央城市工作会议 7月 14日至 15 日在北京举行。会议明确当前和今后一个时期城市工作将"以推进城市更新为抓 手",目标是"建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市"。与 2025年政府工作报告提出"打造 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth of at least 200% year-on-year and net profit growth of at least 350% [2]. - The company's global IP strategy is showing remarkable results, with enhanced profitability driven by increased brand recognition, a diversified product portfolio, and improved overseas revenue contribution [3]. - The online sales channel has experienced explosive growth, solidifying the company's position as an industry leader, with a 194% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q2 2025 [4]. - The company is expected to continue its high-quality growth trajectory, with projected adjusted net profits of 106 billion, 135 billion, and 172 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company forecasts a revenue of no less than 136.74 billion yuan for 1H25, compared to 45.58 billion yuan in 1H24, indicating a growth rate of at least 200% [2]. - The net profit for 1H25 is projected to be no less than 43.38 billion yuan, up from 9.64 billion yuan in 1H24, reflecting a growth rate of at least 350% [2]. Operational Analysis - The core drivers of growth include the increasing global recognition of the company's brand and IP, a diversified product mix, and a significant rise in overseas revenue [3]. - The company is expanding its IP matrix through collaborations and content derivatives, enhancing user engagement and exploring diversified revenue streams [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 106 billion yuan in 2025, 135 billion yuan in 2026, and 172 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 239%, 28%, and 27% [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 36x for 2025, 26x for 2026, and 20x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5].

基本内容 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 中央城市工作会议 7 月 14 日至 15 日在北京举行。会议明确当前和今后一个时期城市工作将" 以推进城市更新为抓 手 "，目标是" 建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市 "。与 2025 年政府工作报告提出"打造 宜居、韧性、智慧城市"相比，此次会议对城市工作提出"创新、美丽、文明"的新目标，同时突出强调城市工作的 人民性。 中央城市工作会议 7 月 14 日至 15 日在北京举行。会议明确当前和今后一个时期城市工作将"以推进城市更新为抓 手"，目标是"建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市"。 此次中央城市工作会议的核心思想是以城市更新为抓手，加快推进以人为本的新型城镇化。通过补齐基本公共服务短 板，推进农业转移人口市民化，释放中低收入群体和农村转移人口的消费潜力，推动经济由"制造大国"向"消费大 国"的转型。 风险提示 对政策的理解存在偏差，城市更新的节奏和力度低于预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 时隔十年之久，中央再度召开城市工作会议的背后有哪些深意？ 此次中央城市工作会议的核心思想是以城市更新为抓手，加快推进以人为本的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected revenue growth of 51% for 2025, 49% for 2026, and 39% for 2027, alongside projected EPS of 7.77, 12.68, and 17.31 respectively [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.6 billion to 4.4 billion RMB in 1H25, representing a year-on-year growth of 53% to 87% [2]. - The strong performance is attributed to the rapid ramp-up of 800G products by North American CSP manufacturers, with the company being a key supplier [3]. - The ongoing investment in AI infrastructure by major North American cloud providers is expected to drive demand for high-speed optical modules, benefiting the company significantly [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company forecasts a net profit of 3.6 billion to 4.4 billion RMB for 1H25, with a year-on-year increase of 53% to 87% [2]. - For 2Q25, the net profit is projected to be between 2.02 billion and 2.82 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 109% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27% to 78% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company is expected to lead in the 1.6T optical module market, with a projected net profit from optical module business of approximately 4 billion to 4.9 billion RMB in 1H25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57% to 92% [3]. - The 800G optical module is anticipated to be the main growth driver for the company in 2025, with the 1.6T product already in small-scale production [3]. Market Demand - Major North American cloud providers are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, with Google planning to invest 25 billion USD over the next two years and Meta announcing plans for a multi-hundred billion USD investment [4]. - This trend indicates a robust demand for optical modules, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 35.97 billion RMB in 2025, 53.75 billion RMB in 2026, and 74.95 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 8.59 billion RMB, 14.01 billion RMB, and 19.13 billion RMB [8]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 50.73% and 66.04% for 2025, respectively [8].

业绩简评 7 月 15 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，2025H1 公司实现 营业收入 60.13 亿元，同比增长 18%，25H1 预计净利润为 4.43- 5.41 亿元，同比-35%至-21%，增速中枢为-28%，其中 Q2 净利润为 2.5-3.5 亿元，同比-27.1%至+1.6%。25H1 股权激励费用同比增加 1.8 亿元，调整后净利润为 6.88-7.87 亿元，同比-9%至+4%，增速 中枢为-2.5%。整体收入表现优异，利润环比呈现改善态势。 经营分析 海外加大非法打击力度推动雾化电子烟业务呈现改善，H1 收入表 现优异。雾化电子烟方面，美国市场上 FDA 新局长上任百日以来， 严厉打击非法产品，联手海关查处近 3400 万美元非法电子烟，并 借助 AI 工具提高执法效率。且近日，参议院批准将向 FDA 拨款 2 亿美元以打击非法电子烟和尼古丁袋，美国雾化电子烟监管趋势 持续向好，合规市场扩容趋势明显。欧洲市场上，英国于 6 月初全 面禁售一次性烟，其余各国收紧监管也已在日程中。参考英国禁售 后一次性烟 SKU 归零而换弹式大幅增加，公司在欧洲市场的换弹 式销售有望持续回暖。整 ...