摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周 AI 应用端，受海外假期影响多数产品活跃度走低，Gemini 逆势上涨。模型端，可灵 AI 全量开放 O1 视频模 型；DeepSeek 发布 V3.2 系列，通过 DSA 架构大幅降本增效；AWS 推出集成检索与代码能力的 Nova 2 系列；谷歌 上线 Gemini 3 Deep Think 模式刷新推理基准；腾讯发布混元 2.0，强化数学与科学推理能力。 - Marvell 三季度营收与数据中心业务分别同比增长 37%与 38%，盈利能力环比改善，第四季度展望保持强劲。公 司预计 FY27 数据中心收入将增长超 25%，并实现季度环比持续提升。在 AI 基础设施需求强劲带动下，互连 （1.6T DSP、AEC、Retimer）、交换（12.8T、51.2T、UALink/ESUN）及定制 ASIC/XPU attach 三大业务全面加 速。收购 Celestial AI 进一步强化其在光子 Scale-up Fabric 中的战略布局。整体来看，公司在 AI 机柜全链路 的价值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the cryptocurrency market, suggesting a neutral to optimistic sentiment as the December interest rate cut approaches, but expresses caution for the market's performance post-January 2026 [4][27]. Core Insights - Current market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, with a potential rebound expected in the short term due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][27]. - The cryptocurrency market capitalization remains stable at $3.11 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing slight declines of 1.7% and 0.3% respectively [10][11]. - The fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies is at 21, indicating a state of fear among investors [11]. - The average holding price for Bitcoin is approximately $56,354, which is below the short-term investors' cost but above that of long-term holders [11]. - The options market indicates a higher probability of price increases for Bitcoin in the coming month, with significant short liquidation expected if prices rise [12][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.11 trillion, unchanged from the previous week [10]. - Bitcoin closed at $89,388, down 1.7%, while Ethereum closed at $3,024, down 0.3% [10][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is projected at 86.2% by CME FedWatch and 93% by Polymarket [10]. Global Policy and Industry News - The Chinese Internet Finance Association warns against illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies [20]. - The UK has officially recognized cryptocurrencies as property through new legislation [22][24]. - Russia plans to introduce comprehensive cryptocurrency regulations by 2026, potentially easing investor access [20][21]. Company News - Strategy has established a reserve of $1.44 billion to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest [26]. - Twenty One Capital is set to merge with Cantor Equity Partners and will begin trading under the ticker "XXI" on December 9 [25]. - IREN successfully raised $3.6 billion, including $2 billion in convertible bonds and $1.6 billion from stock issuance [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cryptocurrency mining companies that are transitioning to AI data centers and those with significant power reserves, such as IREN Limited and Riot Platform [4][27].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development such as servers and IDC, as well as sectors like servers and optical modules driven by overseas AI development [5] Core Insights - Marvell reported revenue of $2.075 billion for the quarter, exceeding market expectations and guidance by $15 million, and announced the acquisition of Celestial AI for approximately $3.25 billion to enhance its position in the CPO field [1][50] - AWS launched the AI training chip Trainium 3 with a computing power of 2.52 PFLOPS FP8 at its annual cloud computing event, indicating strong growth in AI infrastructure [1] - Credo's Q2 FY2026 revenue reached $268 million, a year-over-year increase of 272.1%, driven by growth in its core AEC and IC businesses [1] - DeepSeek introduced two AI models, achieving performance levels close to GPT-5, indicating advancements in domestic AI capabilities [1][47] - ByteDance's Doubao team launched the "Doubao Phone Assistant," with the first device selling out quickly, showcasing the potential for AI applications in consumer electronics [1] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The communication sector shows a steady upward trend, with significant investments in cloud and IDC businesses compensating for pressures in traditional telecom services [14] Server Sector - The server index decreased by 1.22% this week, but AWS's announcement of a significant expansion in AI/HPC data centers suggests ongoing demand growth [2][7] Optical Modules - The optical module index increased by 4.67%, supported by Marvell's strong quarterly performance and strategic acquisition [2][7] IDC Sector - The IDC index rose by 0.50%, with DeepSeek's new AI models expected to drive demand in data centers [3][8] Core Data Updates - Telecom business revenue reached 1.467 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 0.9% [4][15] - The export value of optical modules decreased by 27.6% year-over-year in October, attributed to domestic companies establishing overseas factories [31] Market Trends - The communication sector's performance this week ranked second among all industries, with notable gains in specific companies [39][42]

A 股的"静默"与商品的"躁动" 本周 A 股市场呈现出典型的缩量特征，市场交易热度显著降温，换手率、两融活跃度及期权隐含波动率均降至阶段低 位。这一现象的核心在于，本周国内缺少新的经济或金融数据，叠加即将召开 12 月关键政策会议，市场缺乏明确的 宏观指引。然而，A 股的"静默"与商品市场的"躁动"形成鲜明对比。以白银、铜为代表的金属价格强势上涨，其 深层次逻辑在于，全球大宗商品被长期压低的库存水平，本身体现的是产业链对于政策环境和产业发展进入相对稳态 的适应性。但是，当全球政策环境改变叠加数据中心、电动化等新兴产业正在深刻改变经济结构，库存行为的变化将 会较大程度挑战静态的供需视角的定价。 金融市场的变化：非银资金扩容与资本回报企稳回升的共振 本周金融市场出现了一些变化：金监局下调保险公司相关业务风险因子，同时吴清发言提到适度拓宽券商资本空间与 杠杆上限，这可能是新一轮对于券商+保险资本条件的放松。这可能会带来两个影响：一方面，为市场带来更多的增 量资金；另一方面，在 A 股盈利已经见底回升的背景下，随着非银机构的资金扩容和杠杆率的提升，非银的长期资产 端将更加受益。从过去几次保险下调风险因子和券商加杠杆 ...

DeepSeek-V3.2 发布：推理性价比的长足突破 2025 年 12 月 1 日，DeepSeek 官方同时发布两个正式版模型 DeepSeek-V3.2 和 DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale，官方网页 端、App 和 API 均已更新为正式版 DeepSeek-V3.2，并在 Huggingface 与魔搭开源。DeepSeek-V3.2 在 V3.1-Terminus 基础上引入 DeepSeek Sparse Attention（DSA）稀疏注意力机制，在几乎不牺牲效果的前提下显著提升长文本训练 与推理效率，128K 上下文场景下的单位 token 成本明显低于前代模型。配合大幅提升的后训练算力投入、可扩展的 强化学习框架以及"thinking in tool-use"等设计，V3.2 在数学、编程和代理任务上的综合推理能力已接近甚至 部分场景对标 GPT-5、Gemini-3.0-Pro，而 API 定价仅为每百万输入 token 0.2–2 元、输出 3 元，性价比优势突出。 在金融场景评测中，我们基于 CFLUE 数据集对 DeepSeek 系列与 GPT-5.1、Gemini- ...

智元机器人发布灵 心平台，优必选再 获 1.43 亿元大单 分析师：陈传红 SAC:S1130522030001 chenchuanhong＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：冉婷 产业研究中心 2025 年 12 月 5 日 SAC: S1130524100001 ranting＠gjzq.com.cn 产业研究周报 | 高端装备制造 1 | 证券研究报告 | 核心要点 产业前沿 11 月 24 日，智元机器人正式推出灵心平台（LinkSoul），让每个人都能像搭积 木一样，为机器人自由配置声音、性格、行为与记忆，打造独一无二的智能伙伴； 11 月 24 日，安徽中鼎控股子公司近期收到客户通知，智能热系统成为国内某两 家液冷系统集成商液冷假负载的供应商；11 月 25 日，优必选披露公司于 11 月 21 日中标广西防城港市人形机器人数据采集与测试中心和人工智能科创教育示 范项目，中标金额 2.64 亿元，产品以 Walker S2 为主；11 月 28 日，优必选成 功中标江西九江市人形机器人数据采集与训练中心项目，中标金额为 1.43 亿元。 资本风向 深圳叠动科技有限公司顺利完成新一轮增资扩股，隆盛科技 ...

- The "CSI Central State-owned Enterprises Dividend 50 Index" (931231.CSI) is constructed based on a dual-dimension screening method combining "central enterprise attributes" and "high dividend yield factors" [38][39][43] - The index selects 50 listed companies with high cash dividend yields from central enterprises under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and includes companies with stable cash flows, continuous dividends, and clear dividend payout ratios [38][39][43] - The index's sample space includes A-shares and depositary receipts issued by red-chip enterprises, meeting criteria such as being controlled by SASAC, ranking in the top 80% in terms of average daily market value and trading volume over the past year, and maintaining a dividend payout ratio between 0 and 1 over the past three years [38][39][43] - The index is rebalanced annually, with adjustments implemented on the trading day following the second Friday of December each year [38][39][43] Index Backtesting Results - The CSI Central State-owned Enterprises Dividend 50 Index achieved a cumulative return of 7.65% and an annualized return of 5.70% from January 1, 2025, to December 1, 2025 [45][49][51] - The index's annualized volatility was 11.86%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.31 and a maximum drawdown of 10.82% during the same period [45][49][51] - The weighted dividend yield of the index was 4.46%, ranking among the top in similar indices [49][51][60] Factor Exposure Analysis - Based on the Barra model, the index exhibits significant positive exposure to value factors such as high earnings yield and high book-to-price ratio, while showing negative exposure to risk factors like low beta and low residual volatility [68][70][72] - The index avoids momentum and growth factors, indicating a focus on stable, low-volatility assets rather than chasing market trends [68][70][72]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target market value of 3.36 trillion RMB and a target price of 192.48 HKD for FY2026 [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba has restructured its organization to focus on "e-commerce, cloud + AI," enhancing resource allocation and competitive response [2][25]. - The company is actively participating in the instant retail market, which is expected to exceed 2 trillion RMB by 2030, thus defending its market share [16]. - Alibaba Cloud is positioned as a top-tier player in AI and cloud computing, with significant investments in self-developed capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce and internet technology group that has recently restructured its business into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others [2]. Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with a notable increase in daily active users (DAU) and order volumes since May [3]. - The company has seen a significant rise in order volume, with peak orders reaching 120 million in July, and a substantial increase in market share in the food delivery sector [3][19]. - Alibaba's investment in user experience (UE) is expected to improve as scale and efficiency increase, with current losses narrowing significantly [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 [5]. - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is valued at 11 times earnings, while the cloud business is valued at 7 times sales [5]. - The report anticipates stable market share for Alibaba's traditional e-commerce business and significant growth potential for its cloud services driven by AI [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the instant retail market, with Alibaba's aggressive strategies to boost user engagement and order fulfillment capabilities [19][39]. - Alibaba's cash reserves are the highest among competitors, providing a strong foundation for sustaining long-term investments in the instant retail sector [51][52]. - The introduction of the "High De" street ranking by Amap aims to synergize online and offline services, indicating potential growth in the in-store business [58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings growth leading to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 27, 19, and 12 times for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [6]. Core Insights - The company has introduced a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel designed for the transportation of wind power equipment, which is expected to create new demand due to its cost advantages over conventional vessels [4]. - The domestic wind turbine manufacturers are accelerating their overseas orders, with a significant increase in new contracts signed, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the company's specialized marine services [5]. - The forecasted net profits for the company are projected to be 1.21 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.63 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong recovery and growth in profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Event - On December 2, the company participated in the China International Maritime Exhibition and launched a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel [3]. Operational Analysis - The newly launched vessel is optimized for transporting wind power equipment, including main engines, towers, transition pieces, and blades, and is also applicable for offshore engineering and heavy industry [4]. - The vessel features two 800-ton cranes and a cargo area of approximately 7,000 square meters, meeting the requirements for transporting the longest offshore wind turbine blades [4]. Market Outlook - The acceleration of domestic wind turbine exports is evident, with new overseas orders reaching 28 GW in 2024 and a further increase of 27.9 GW in the first eleven months of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 68% [5]. - The company is expected to expand its specialized marine service business as it builds its own fleet, which will serve as a second growth curve [5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to recover from 3.78 billion RMB in 2024 to 12.38 billion RMB by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 70.6% in 2025 [10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 474 million RMB in 2024 to 2.63 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 58.43% [10]. - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of offshore engineering service orders, which is anticipated to enhance unit profitability [6].