Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the real estate sector, recommending selective investments in companies with strong fundamentals and potential policy benefits [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a slight increase of +0.3% while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by +1.7% during the week of June 28 to July 4, 2025 [3][18]. - The land market's premium rate has decreased, with a total of 762,000 square meters of residential land sold across 300 cities, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 35% and a year-on-year decline of 15% [3][29]. - The first half of 2025 showed a significant improvement in land market performance, with a total supply of 21,930 million square meters and a total transaction of 17,390 million square meters, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous years [5][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights that the sales volume of commercial housing in 47 cities reached 514,000 square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% and a year-on-year decrease of 8% [4][34]. - The average new home price in May showed a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, indicating a gradual stabilization in the market [4]. Land Market - The average transaction price for residential land in the first half of 2025 across 300 cities was 4,953 yuan per square meter, with significant year-on-year increases across different city tiers [5][14]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount included Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 41.4 billion, 40.1 billion, 39.3 billion, 34.1 billion, and 31.3 billion yuan respectively [29][33]. Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of 2025 was 1,782 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [6][16]. - The report notes a divergence where the decline in sales is greater than the decline in investment, indicating a challenging sales environment for real estate companies [6][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in real estate stocks during market dips, particularly focusing on developers with strong operations in core first and second-tier cities [7]. - Suggested companies include Jianfa International Group, China Overseas Development, and Binjiang Group for developers, and Beike for real estate intermediaries [7].

铜：本周 LME 铜价-0.27%到 9852.00 美元/吨，沪铜-0.24%到 7.97 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数涨至-44.25 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一增加 0.57 万吨至 13.18 万吨，较上周四增加 0.17 万吨。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率超预期降至 63.74%，环比下滑 10.27 个百分点，较 预期值低 9.74 个百分点，同比转负下滑 4.75 个百分点；本周铜线揽企业开工率降至 67.81%，环比下降 2.37 个百分 比，同比降 13.55 个百分比；本周漆包线行业开机率降至 79.53%，环比降 2.07%，超预期下滑。高铜价抑制下游订单， 叠加传统淡季需求疲软，市场表现低迷。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+0.01 %到 2597.50 美元/吨，沪铝+0.27%到 2.06 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费 地电解铝锭库存 47.4 万吨，较本周一增加 0.6 万吨，环比上周四增加 1.1 万吨;国内主流消费地再生铝合金锭社会库 存 23232 吨，较上周四增加 2646 吨。成本 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative AI model companies such as iFlytek, and highlights potential in AI hardware applications with recommendations for companies like Yingzi Network, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the AI industry is currently in a relatively chaotic fundamental period, with mixed macroeconomic signals and varying investor expectations. It notes that while user willingness to adopt AI technologies is increasing, payment capabilities remain weak, and products require further development [11][12] - The report identifies high-growth sectors for 2025, including AI computing power and lidar, while sectors like industrial software and medical IT are facing pressure [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The report discusses the launch of Alibaba's multimodal model Qwen-VLo, which enhances semantic understanding and supports multiple languages, showcasing advancements in AI capabilities [11] - Tesla's delivery of the first Model Y autonomous vehicle is highlighted, marking a significant milestone in autonomous delivery technology [11] Subsector Insights - High-growth sectors include AI computing power and lidar, while sectors like software outsourcing, financial IT, and quantum computing are expected to show steady growth. Education IT and cybersecurity are at an inflection point, while industrial software and medical IT are under pressure [10][12] Market Review - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) fell by 1.28%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.82 percentage points, indicating a challenging market environment for the sector [14] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the 2025 International Drone Application and Control Conference and the second AI Glasses Industry Innovation Application Summit, which may present investment opportunities in related sectors [25][26]

证券板块 受财务数据有效期影响，6 月历来是 IPO 申报高峰期。叠加政策对科技企业 IPO 的支持，6 月以来 IPO 受理节奏显著 加快。6 月单月已有 149 家企业 IPO 获受理，占今年以来受理总量的 86%，较去年同期增加 122 家，同比增幅高达 452%。年初至今，共有 174 家企业 IPO 获受理，同比增加 145 家，同比增幅达 500%。从行业分布看，科技类、制造类 企业居多，受理企业数量前列的行业依次为：专用设备制造业（27 家）；计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业（21 家）； 化学原料和化学制品制造业（20 家）；电气机械和器材制造业（16 家）；汽车制造业以及通用设备制造业（13 家）。 投资建议：建议关注四条主线：（1）有望迎来戴维斯双击的香港交易所：未来将继续受益于互联互通深化、中概股回 流、A 股企业赴港上市带来的市值扩容与交易活跃度提升（25/05 ADT 为 2103 亿元，同比+50%；累计 ADT 为 2423 亿 元；截至 25/05 末上市公司数量 2633 家，同比+23 家）。（2）业绩增速亮眼以及高股息的多元金融：盛业、九方智投 控股。（3）券商板块上半年 ...

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周海外聊天助手应用活跃度普遍上升，ChatGPT、Gemini 和 Perplexity 均小幅提升。国内应用中，多数保持 稳定，豆包环比保持增长。 - CoreWeave 率先部署 Nvidia 最新 Blackwell Ultra 芯片，采用 Dell 组装的液冷 GB300 NVL72 系统，显著提升 AI 训练与推理效率。受益于与 Nvidia 的深度合作及先发优势，CoreWeave 股价上涨 6%，自 IPO 以来已翻四倍，彰 显资本市场对其成长性的高度认可。 - AI 手机渗透率提升推动单机存储容量升级，2025 年 NAND 均值将达 224GB，DRAM 超 8GB。高容量 UFS4.0 供应充 足，低容量 UFS2.2 因制程调整出现结构性偏紧，价格上涨。DRAM 方面，LPDDR4X 因产线切换供给紧缺，三季度 合约价涨超 20%；LPDDR5X 供需相对平衡，价格小幅上涨。整体市场由结构性升级驱动，出货量增长乏力。 - 2025 年 5 月，中国智能手机销量达到约 ...

一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周模拟组合收益悉数回升，且信用仓位涨幅不小。利率风格组合中，产业超长型、二级超长型策略组合读数靠前， 均在 0.15%附近；信用风格组合中，产业超长型、二级超长型策略组合收益位居前列，读数分别达到 0.41%、0.41%。 分重仓券种看，二级资本债重仓策略显著修复，二级债子弹型、产业超长型策略收益趋近于近三个月最高。信用风格 存单重仓组合周度收益均值上涨至 0.14%，环比升高 9.3bp，本周进攻属性不及长久期资产；城投重仓组合的周度收 益平均上行至 0.23%，较上周涨幅超过 20bp，子弹型、久期策略单周收益在 0.25%以上，优于哑铃型策略；二级资 本债重仓组合收益均值则回升 28bp 至 0.27%附近，其中，久期及混合哑铃型策略修复力度较大；超长债重仓策略平 均收益出现 38bp 左右的大幅回升，二季度产业、二级超长型策略累计收益不及城投超长型，而本周收益几乎位于近 三个月最高点。 收益来源方面，各类策略组合票息收益略有回升，波动再度回落。主要策略中，各类组合票息多数升高，城投短端下 沉、二级债下沉策略票息环比涨幅均在 0.04bp 左右，除重仓超长债的策略外，其余组合年化 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the industry in the report. Core Viewpoints - As of July 4, the weighted average trading maturities of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.27 years and 3.27 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading maturities of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.28 years, 3.73 years, and 3.27 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.52 years, 1.69 years, 3.33 years, and 1.37 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, it dropped and this week slightly decreased compared to last week, currently at the 27.80% level since March 2021 [12]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Maturity Overview - The weighted average trading maturities of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, general commercial financial bonds, securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 2.27 years, 3.27 years, 4.28 years, 3.73 years, 3.27 years, 1.52 years, 1.69 years, 3.33 years, and 1.37 years respectively. Their corresponding historical quantiles since March 2021 were 94.1%, 97.7%, 97.3%, 68.1%, 99.5%, 29.1%, 13.9%, 70.8%, and 82.9% [11]. - The coupon duration crowding index declined after reaching its peak in March 2024 and this week slightly decreased compared to last week, currently at the 27.80% level since March 2021 [12]. 2. Variety Microscope - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The weighted average trading maturity hovered around 2.27 years. Guangdong provincial - level urban investment bonds had a duration of over 5 years, while Guizhou provincial - level urban investment bonds' trading duration shortened to around 0.48 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, prefecture - level cities in Guangdong, district - county - level in Fujian, and prefecture - level cities in Shandong were at over 90% historical quantiles, and the durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds were approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The weighted average trading maturity was around 3.27 years, slightly longer than last week. The trading maturity of the real estate industry shortened to 1.85 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.63 years. The real estate industry's trading maturity was at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, food and beverage, biomedicine, commercial retail, and building materials were all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][20]. - **Commercial Bank Bonds**: The duration of general commercial financial bonds lengthened to 3.27 years, at the 99.5% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.28 years, at the 97.30% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds lengthened to 3.73 years, at the 68.10% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][23]. - **Other Financial Bonds**: In terms of the weighted average trading maturity, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 83%, 14%, 30%, and 71% historical quantiles respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week [3][25].

6 月份科创 50ETF 资金继续流入，TMT 主题基金业绩反弹 宽基 ETF 中多类指数本月资金大规模净流出，其中沪深 300ETF 资金净流出额超过 150 亿元。而科创 50ETF 本月资金 呈净流入状态，资金净流入额超过 20 亿元。行业 ETF 中，本月各类行业 ETF 资金净流入额整体上呈现分化的状态。 其中高端制造 ETF 资金净流入额最高，而周期、医药 ETF 的资金呈现净流出状态。 行业主题基金中，从中位数来看，本月 TMT 主题基金有较好的表现，收益率中位数为 7.41%。 风格轮动型基金优选组合业绩跟踪 我们目前基于成长价值与大小盘两个维度，根据基金在两个报告期的股票持仓，构建基金绝对主动轮动指标，对基金 是否为风格轮动型基金或风格稳定型基金进行了识别。随后，我们根据主动轮动收益因子，刻画基金风格轮动的效果， 并在风格轮动型基金中进行了基金优选。本策略采用半年频调仓的策略，在每年 3 月末/8 月末进行调仓，选基范围为 偏股混合型基金及普通股票型基金，并扣除交易成本。我们对该策略在 2025 年 6 月份的表现进行了跟踪。 本月风格轮动型基金优选组合跑赢万得偏股混合型基金指数。2025 ...

电子周观点： GB300 开始出货，继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件。7 月 3 日，美国 CoreWeave 公司在官网宣布，已收到市 场上首个英伟达 GB300 NVL72，PowerEdge XE9712 服务器是戴尔公司基于 Nvidia GB300 NVL72，专门为推 理任务设计的 AI 服务器，具备高效能、高密度加速技术，能提供 50 倍的 AI 推理输出并提升 5 倍的吞吐量， 适用于大规模 AI 部署的 LLM 训练和即时推论。采用液冷技术，实现节能运行。具备实时万亿参数 LLM 推理能 力，增强大规模 AI 模型训练。戴尔表示，采用创新的直接芯片冷却技术，最多可支持 192 个 Nvidia Blackwell Ultra GPU。我们认为，GB200 下半年迎来快速出货，GB300 也将快速上量，此外，B200、B300 也在积极拉 货，产业链迎来拉货旺季。谷歌、亚马逊、Meta 等公司 ASIC 芯片快速发展，我们预计 2026 年三家公司 ASIC 芯片的数量将超过 700 万颗，OpenAI 及 xAI 等厂商也在大力推进 ASIC 芯片。英伟达 Blackwell 的快速放 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, emphasizing the importance of supply chain integration and government policies [1][5][24]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, with significant government intervention expected to address low-price competition and excess capacity [5][24]. - The wind energy sector is projected to maintain a robust installation capacity of over 100GW in 2026, despite a slowdown in bidding activity [1][12][24]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies, such as the U.S. "Big Beautiful Act," which alleviates uncertainties for solar and storage exports to the U.S. [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The "de-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic sector has reached a high level, with government meetings signaling strong administrative intervention to address pricing issues and capacity clearing [5][24]. - Supply chain integration is crucial, particularly in the silicon material segment, which is central to the current capacity surplus [5][24]. - The report anticipates a recovery in silicon prices, contingent on the downstream price transmission capabilities and collective self-discipline within the industry [5][24]. Wind Energy - The domestic price of onshore wind turbines has shown a recovery trend in Q2, with expectations for continued strong installation capacity in 2026 [1][12][24]. - The report notes that even with a slowdown in bidding, historical data suggests that installation figures will remain stable due to previously approved projects [12][24]. - The central government has reiterated its commitment to promoting orderly development in offshore wind energy [1][12][24]. Electric Grid - Recent approvals for high-voltage direct current projects indicate significant investment potential, with expected project investments exceeding 500 billion and 170 billion yuan for specific projects [2][14][15]. - The report highlights the anticipated increase in equipment bidding for high-voltage projects, projecting a breakthrough of 500 billion yuan in 2025 [15][17]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of lithium metal anodes, which can achieve higher energy densities compared to traditional materials [2][18][24]. - It suggests a focus on leading companies in various processing routes for lithium metal anodes, as well as solid-state battery technologies [18][24]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The extension of tax credits for hydrogen projects in the U.S. provides a critical window for industry development [3][23]. - The European Union's new framework for clean industrial support is expected to accelerate the deployment of green hydrogen projects [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including photovoltaic glass manufacturers, battery cell producers, and offshore wind cable suppliers, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [24].