宏观流动性： 上周美元指数有所回落，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期回落。离岸美元 流动性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面整体平衡偏松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回落，除创业板指外，其余主要指数波动率均回落。行业上，TMT、消费者服务、商贸零售、机械、 轻工、汽车等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，大多数行业波动率均在 80%分位数以下。 机构调研： 电子、医药、通信、计算机、汽车等板块调研热度居前，传媒、电力及公用事业、电子、医药、食品饮料、有色等板 块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 节奏上，上周北上先持续净卖出、后明显回流。基于前 10 大活跃股口径，上周北上在通信、电子、汽车等板块的买 卖总额之比上升，在非银、机械、电力及公用事业等板块的买卖总额之比回落。基于陆股通持股数量小于 3000 万股 的标的口径：北上主要净买入电子、计算机、医药等板块，主要净卖出军工、通信、传媒等板块。综合来看：北上可 能主要净买入电子、计算机、医药、有色等板块，净卖出军工、非银、商贸零售、家电等板块。 两融活跃度降至近三周低点 上周两融净买入 258 ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数中，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 均上涨，涨幅分别为 1.63%、2.71%、3.24% 和 1.03%。 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收负，而茅指数仍为正斜率，策略信号发出切 换至茅指数信号，中期配置茅指数的预期能有更高相对收益。且从短期背离指标来看，微盘股进入高波动区间，整体 配置性价比降低。 过去一周，在"93 阅兵"结束后，权益市场从前期预期兑现的科技军工板块切换至后续有增量政策预期的消费和反内 卷板块。政策端，近期消费、地产和周期板块政策陆续发力。消费侧，商务部发言说 9 月将出台扩大服务消费的若干 政策；地产端，一线城市深圳松绑限购政策，表示罗湖等多区放开限购，非深户可以买两套。加大对于地产消费的刺 激力度。而对于反内卷板块，《电子信息制造业 2025－2026 年稳增长行动方案》出台，文中明确表明要在破除"内 卷式"竞争中实现光伏等领域高质量发展，依法治理光伏等产品低价竞争。引导地方有序布局光伏、锂电池产业，指 导地方梳理产能情况。可预期增量反内卷政策将逐步出台。而从风格角度，我们观测近期的风格走势 ...

行业风格配置建议及 ETF 组合：维持中盘成长，聚焦周期和消费 随着中报的披露和投资者风险偏好处于相对高位，量化行业轮动模型最新一期模型优选周期（地产、建筑装饰、有色）+消 费（农牧、食饮）板块，其中，地产、农牧、建筑装饰和食饮主要由基本面驱动，传媒、有色和电新主要由量价驱动。随 着中报的披露和市场风险偏好的系统性抬升，本期建议重点关注的行业主线包括基本面和量价共振的传媒、有色和电新。 本期行业 ETF 组合如下： | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成立日期 | 二季末规模 | 机构投资 | 近一年日 均成交额 | 今年以来 | 今年以来 | 近一年 | 近一年 | 近三年 | 近三年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （亿元） | 者比例(%) | (亿元) | 收益率 | 跟踪误差 | 收益率 | 跟踪误差 | 收益率 | 跟踪误差 | | 512200.OF | 南方中证全指房地产ETF | 2017-08-25 | 62.32 | 70.69 | 2.86 | 3.75% ...

1. Report Title and Information - The report is titled "Fund Analysis Special Report (In - depth): Counting the Semi - annual Report of Public Active Equity Funds in 2025 - Institutional Funds Focus on the Top, Market Activity and Fund Turnover Increase" [1] - The analysts are Wang Ziwei and Wang Dandan, and the report was released on September 5, 2025 [1] 2. Core View - In the first half of 2025, the A - share market recovered and became more active, but the total share of active equity funds decreased compared with last year. The proportion of institutional holdings increased, while that of individual holdings decreased slightly. Both individual and institutional investor funds were significantly concentrated in top - scale funds, with individual investors preferring larger - scale funds more than institutions [2] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Holder Structure 3.1.1 Share/Proportion Changes - In the first half of 2025, the total share of active equity funds decreased compared with last year. The proportion of institutional holdings increased, and that of individual holdings decreased slightly. By the end of the first half of 2025, the institutional share of active equity funds was 424.585 billion shares, accounting for 15.51%, and the individual share was 2313.5 billion shares, accounting for 84.49%. The institutional holding ratio increased by 1.78% compared with the end of 2024 and 0.58% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. Among different investment categories, the ordinary stock - type funds had the highest institutional holding ratio at 23.59%, and the balanced hybrid - equity - oriented funds had the lowest at 11.50% [17] 3.1.2 Institutional/Individual Fund Distribution - In the first half of 2025, both individual and institutional investor funds were significantly concentrated in top - scale funds. By mid - 2025, 37.05% of institutional funds were concentrated in the top 5% of funds by scale, with the proportion increasing by 2.51% compared with the end of 2024 and 11.38% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. 38.16% of individual funds were concentrated in the top 5% of funds by scale, with the proportion decreasing by 0.66% compared with the end of 2024 but increasing by 1.27% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. Individual investors preferred larger - scale funds [22] 3.2 Institutional Positioning 3.2.1 Funds with Larger Holding Shares - As of the end of the first half of 2025, among the top ten ordinary stock - type funds held by institutions, 8 were increased in holdings and 2 were decreased. Among the partial - equity hybrid funds, 9 were increased and 1 were decreased. Among the flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds, 7 were increased and 3 were decreased. The ordinary stock - type, partial - equity hybrid, and flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds with the largest institutional holdings were "Invesco Great Wall Research Selection", "Changxin Jinli Trend", and "China Europe Dividend Premium", with holding shares of 3.465 billion, 9.571 billion, and 4.383 billion respectively, and the share changes in the past six months were 669 million, - 2.143 billion, and 2 billion respectively [26] 3.2.2 Funds with Larger Increased Holding Shares - In the first half of 2025, the ordinary stock - type fund with the largest increase in institutional holdings was "Fullgoal Consumption Selection 30" managed by Zhou Wenbo, with an increase of 1.755 billion shares. The partial - equity hybrid fund with the largest increase was "Fullgoal Steady Growth" managed by Fan Yan, with an increase of 5.108 billion shares. The flexible - allocation equity - oriented fund with the largest increase was "China Europe Dividend Premium" managed by Lan Xiaokang, with an increase of 2 billion shares [31][34][36] 3.2.3 Small - and Medium - Sized Funds with Faster - Rising Proportions - Among small - sized funds with a scale between 100 million and 500 million, the top ten funds with the fastest - rising institutional holding ratios were "Haitong Quantitative Forward", "Changxin Huizhi Quantitative Stock Selection", etc. Among small - sized funds with a scale between 500 million and 1 billion, the top ten funds with the fastest - rising institutional holding ratios were "China Europe High - end Equipment", "GF Balanced Growth", etc. [38][40] 3.3 FOF Positioning 3.3.1 Funds with Larger Holding Market Values - As of mid - 2025, the active partial - equity funds with the largest FOF holding market values were "Dacheng Gaoxin" with a holding market value of 896 million yuan. Other top - ten funds included "Fullgoal Steady Growth" (773 million yuan), "Xingquan Business Model Preferred" (568 million yuan), etc. [44] 3.3.2 Funds with Larger Increased Holding Shares - From the perspective of the share changes of FOF - held funds in the latest period, "Fullgoal Steady Growth" had the largest increase in FOF holdings, with an increase of 638 million shares. Other funds with large increases included "E Fund Strategic Emerging Industries", "E Fund Active Growth", etc. [47] 3.3.3 Funds with a Larger Number of Holders - As of mid - 2025, "Dacheng Gaoxin" was held by 169 FOFs. The second - and third - ranked funds were "Fullgoal Steady Growth" managed by Fan Yan and "Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen" managed by Nong Bingli, held by 132 and 88 FOFs respectively. Other top - ten funds included "Dongfanghong JD Big Data", "Boda Growth Zhihang", etc. [50] 3.4 Shareholding Characteristics 3.4.1 Fund Turnover - In the first half of 2025, the average turnover of all active partial - equity funds was 2.12, higher than that in the first half of 2024 (2.08) and the second half of 2024 (1.93). Among different types of active equity funds, the flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds had the highest turnover in the first half of 2025 at 2.26, followed by partial - equity hybrid funds and balanced hybrid - equity - oriented funds with turnovers of 2.11 and 1.98 respectively. The ordinary stock - type funds had the lowest turnover at 1.92 [53] 3.4.2 Market Value/Plate Changes - In terms of market - value style, active partial - equity funds were mainly allocated to small - and medium - cap stocks. By the end of the first half of 2025, stocks with a market value below 30 billion accounted for the highest proportion at 42.71%. Compared with the end of 2024, the proportion of large - cap stocks increased, while that of small - and medium - cap stocks decreased. By the end of the first half of 2025, among all the holdings of active partial - equity funds, the technology sector accounted for the highest proportion, and the financial sector accounted for the lowest. Compared with the end of 2024, the technology sector had the largest increase in market - value proportion, and the manufacturing sector had the largest decrease [64] 3.4.3 Industry Allocation Proportion Changes - At the sub - industry level, in the first half of 2025, the industries with a relatively large increase in shareholding market - value proportion were pharmaceutical biology, media, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance. The proportions of the power equipment, food and beverage, and household appliance industries decreased significantly. As of mid - 2025, the top three industries held by active equity funds were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, with their shareholding market - value proportions accounting for 17.03%, 12.12%, and 7.53% respectively [66] 3.4.4 "Hidden Heavy Positions" - In the first half of 2025, among the stocks with a heavy - position market value ranked below 50 in the second - quarter heavy - position holdings of active equity funds, the stock with the highest non - heavy - position market value calculated according to all shareholding details was Dongshan Precision, with a total shareholding market value of 922.9 million yuan, of which 380.2 million yuan was non - heavy - position holding. Among the stocks with a heavy - position market value ranked below 100, the stock with the highest non - heavy - position market value was Naxinwei [69] 3.4.5 Sub - Industry Changes - From the perspective of the market value of holdings in Shenwan primary industries, in the technology sector, the allocation proportions of the electronics and media industries increased significantly, and those of the communication and computer industries increased slightly. In the large - consumption sector, the pharmaceutical biology industry was booming in the first half of the year, while traditional consumption - related fields were reduced in holdings. In the cycle - manufacturing sector, except for a slight increase in the proportions of the national defense and military industry and the machinery equipment industry, other industries decreased, with the power equipment industry having the most significant decrease. In terms of resource products, the market - value proportion of the non - ferrous metals industry increased significantly [71][77]

主要市场及行业指数表现 过去一个月，国内主要市场指数普涨，中证 500、中证 1000、国证 2000、沪深 300、上证 50 分别上涨 13.13%、11.67%、 11.02%、10.33%、7.22%。行业指数几乎全部上涨，在中信一级行业中有 29 个行业上涨，通信、电子、有色金属、计 算机、电力设备及新能源等行业指数涨幅靠前，其中通信行业指数涨幅最大，月涨幅达 33.78%。建筑、煤炭、银行的 行业指数涨跌幅靠后，月涨跌幅分别为 0.77%、0.57%、-1.67%。 行业因子与行业轮动策略表现 八月因子表现均较好，从 IC 上来看六个基础因子均能带来正向表现，其中质量、估值动量、分析师预期和超预期因 子表现突出，其 IC 均值分别达到了 46.31%、23.89%、43.35%和 31.65%；多空收益方面所有因子也均能带来正向收益， 其中盈利、质量和分析师预期因子的多空收益分别达到 6.82%、11.24%和 10.56%，较为突出；多头超额收益方面，则 同样是盈利、质量和分析师预期三个因子表现较好，上个月分别达到 5.61%、5.03%和 6.25%的多头超额收益。 今年以来，所有因子的IC值 ...

一、一级供给节奏 上周（2025.8.25-2025.8.29，下同）地方政府债共发行 3516 亿元，其中，新增专项债 1879.8 亿元，再融资专项债 626.2 亿元。分募集资金用途来看，"普通/项目收益"、"特殊新增专项债"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2025 年 8 月 29 日，8 月份特殊再融资专项债发行已有 550.4 亿元，占当月地方债发行规模的比例达到 5.6%。 发行定价方面，20 年地方债发行利率均值明显上升。从利差角度看，20 年、10 年地方债发行利率与同期限国债利差 持续走阔至 26.3BP、18.8BP，尤其是 20 年品种抬升速度较快，30 年地方债发行利差则收窄至 21.9BP。 分地区来看，8 月安徽、浙江、河北等地是地方债发行的主要区域，其中安徽省发行规模超过 800 亿，而湖南 20 年 以上地方债发行规模达到 341 亿元，此外，宁夏、甘肃地方政府债平均票面利率高于 2.3%。 二、二级交易特征 10 年以上地方政府债指数逆势上涨。上周 7-10 年、10 年以上地方债指数分别下跌 0.03%、上涨 0.23%，7-10 年品 种防御属性优于同期限国债、信用债 ...

阅兵实现多个"首次"，强调新域新质作战力量。1）实现多个"首次"：本次阅兵是全面推进中国式现代化进入新征 程的首次阅兵；是我军力量结构新布局在阅兵中首次集中展示；首次亮相的新型装备占比很大；部分陆海空基战略重 器、高超精打、无人和反无人装备是首次对外展示；空中梯队很多明星装备首次公开亮相；是民兵首次参加以纪念抗 战为主题的阅兵活动。2）以新型四代装备为主体，展示我军体系作战能力；遴选陆上、海上、空中系列无人智能和 反无人装备，以及网电作战等新型力量受阅，展示我军新域新质战力；集中亮相一批高超声速、防空反导、战略导弹 等先进装备，展示我军强大的战略威慑实力。 投资建议： 本次阅兵展示了我国武器装备建设跨越式发展，2025 年作为十四五收官和十五五布局的关键期，行业景气反转和军贸 市场打开等多重因素驱动，我国军工资产有望价值重估。建议关注军贸、新质战斗力、消耗类弹药、军工电子等投资 主线及核心标的。 风险提示 军用装备采购不及预期；军贸领域市场拓展和客户导入不及预期；原材料价格和劳动力成本上升风险；新品研发不及 预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 投资逻辑： 装备方队突出新质战斗力，彰显战略威慑能力。1）陆上作 ...

三棵树"马上住"社区店 vs 茶饮门店，有哪些可比之处？ 首先，"马上住"社区店和茶饮门店都是传统行业转型升级的典范， 通过品牌化、标准化、服务化/产品化，去解决传统模式中"散、 乱、差"的核心痛点，出发点都是消费者的"信任危机"和"体验 升级"，并且通过连锁加盟的模式实现规模效应和快速扩张。 第二，针对人力成本占比重的"痛点"，茶饮行业通过高度标准化 （如采用自动奶茶机、统一流程和食材供应等）有效降低了对人力 的依赖；相比之下，"马上住"因其强服务属性，短期内仍难以完 全依靠技术替代人力，经销商的项目洽谈能力和产业工人的施工 水平均具备较强的非标特征，三棵树经过 9 年持续迭代，推动原 本非标的人力服务向"可复制、可管控、可衡量"的标准化方向演 进，提升了服务交付质量的稳定性和业务扩张效率。 第三，茶饮的发展历程具有借鉴性，茶饮门店已经完成全国性品牌 整合和市场教育，进入存量竞争阶段，而"马上住"这类以墙面翻 新为核心的轻装修服务模式尚处于跑马圈地的增量市场阶段，未 来谁能率先实现万店连锁的规模效应，谁就有希望重塑建筑涂料 甚至旧改轻装修的行业格局。 "马上住"社区店 vs 茶饮店的单店模型对比： 对比存量 ...

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 24.00 43.00 62.00 81.00 100.00 119.00 138.00 240904 241204 250304 250604 美元(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 Credo T echnology Group H olding Ltd. | 公司基本情况（美元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 192.97 | 436.78 | | 985.01 1,362.18 1,710.22 | | | 增长率（%） | 4.8% | 126.3% | 125.5% | 38.3% | 25.6% | | EBITDA | -8.97 | 76.81 | 286.78 | 390.90 | 510.93 | | 归母净利润 | -28.37 | 52.18 | 250.25 | 345.82 | 457.83 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of economic growth and inflation. In terms of economic growth, the production side shows a mixed trend with high - level power plant consumption but declines in blast furnace and tire operating rates in some areas, while the demand side sees a marginal decline in building material prices. Regarding inflation, most industrial product prices are falling, with the CPI affected by the drop in pork prices and the PPI showing a complex situation of price changes in different industrial products [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices 3.1.1 Production: High - level Power Plant Consumption - Power plant consumption remains at a high level. On September 2, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 922,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from August 26. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19. With the end of the summer peak approaching, power plant consumption in eight coastal provinces is expected to remain high [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has declined locally. On August 29, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.6%, a 3.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, affected by environmental protection restrictions [4][17]. - The tire operating rate has declined slightly. On August 28, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 63.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 21, and the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 72.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease. However, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices - At the beginning of the month, the sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has rebounded month - on - month. From September 1 - 2, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 189,000 square meters, a 19.0% increase from August, a 54.4% increase from September last year, but a 21.8% decrease from September 2023. The rebound trend needs further confirmation. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities have increased year - on - year [4][24]. - The retail trend in the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][24][25]. - Steel prices have generally fallen. On September 2, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.5%, and 0.9% respectively compared to August 26. Steel inventories are slowly accumulating [4][31]. - Cement prices have returned to a downward trend. On September 2, the national cement price index decreased by 1.3% compared to August 26, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions falling more than the national average. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [4][32]. - The decline in glass prices has widened. On September 2, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,142 yuan per ton, a 3.5% decrease from August 26. The demand side is significantly affected by the real estate market, and the implementation effect of policies remains to be seen [4][38]. - The container shipping freight index has stabilized locally. On August 29, the CCFI index decreased by 1.6% from August 22, while the SCFI index increased by 2.1%. The freight rate of the US route has stopped falling and rebounded, mainly due to shipping companies' capacity control [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall Below 20 Yuan - Pork prices have fallen below 20 yuan. On September 2, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from August 26. In September, the theoretical supply of live pigs is expected to increase [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years. On September 2, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to August 26. Different agricultural products have different price trends [4][51]. 3.2.2 PPI: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling - Oil prices have risen slightly. On September 2, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $69.5 and $65.6 per barrel respectively, a 3.0% and 3.7% increase from August 26. The uncertainty of Russian oil supply supports oil prices [4][56]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 2, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively compared to August 26. However, the domestic commodity index has turned down month - on - month [4][59]. - Industrial product prices have turned down month - on - month. Since September, most industrial product prices have fallen, with coking coal and coke having relatively large declines. Most industrial product prices are also down year - on - year [4][63].