- The global asset allocation model uses machine learning to score and rank assets based on factor investment principles, constructing a monthly quantitative equal-weight strategy for global asset allocation[39][43][44] - The model's historical performance from January 2021 to March 2025 shows an annualized return of 6.45%, Sharpe ratio of 1.01, maximum drawdown of 6.66%, and excess annualized return of 1.28%, outperforming the benchmark across all dimensions[39][44][45] - The dynamic macro event factor-based stock-bond rotation strategy includes three risk preference models (conservative, balanced, aggressive), with April stock weights of 0%, 13.73%, and 25%, respectively[45][46][47] - The macro timing module and risk budget framework signal strengths for April are 50% for monetary liquidity and 0% for economic growth[45][46][48] - Historical performance of the stock-bond rotation strategy from January 2005 to March 2025 shows annualized returns of 20.02% (aggressive), 11.02% (balanced), and 6.03% (conservative), all outperforming the benchmark[45][51][47] - The dividend timing model recommends a 100% allocation to the CSI Dividend Index for April, with economic growth indicators mostly bearish and monetary liquidity signals positive[53][54][52] - The dividend timing strategy achieves an annualized return of 16.86%, maximum drawdown of -21.22%, and Sharpe ratio of 0.95, significantly improving stability compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[53][54][52]

近期美国经济的负面冲击开始逐渐共振，且当下像是过去几年的镜像：(几乎)所有消息都是坏消息，衰退压力也带来 了美股的连续下跌，美债利率的持续下行，以及波动率的飙升。 基本内容 毫无疑问，关税是当前美国经济（甚至全球经济）的主要矛盾，也是衰退冲击的最大来源。如果"对等关税"全额落 地，将看到 1907 年以来最高的美国平均关税税率，美国贸易需求将迅速萎缩，将美国经济推向衰退。 但关税压力并非美国经济唯一逆风，即使特朗普在关税有所收敛，美国还将面临多重衰退冲击的共振。 这意味着我们需要更认真地对待美国经济衰退，甚至不能完全排除全球经济衰退的可能性。放在一个季度或者半年前， 都难以想象在 2025 年提及"全球经济衰退"。但当下，我们需要把美国衰退当作基准情形，把全球衰退当作最坏情形， 直到特朗普发生"自我纠偏"。 风险提示 1）特朗普强硬推进关税计划 2）美国预防式储蓄更为激进 3）美国通胀飙升带来特朗普进一步政策加码可能 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 近期美国经济的负面冲击开始逐渐共振:从马斯克依然咬定一万亿美元的减支幅度，到新一轮联邦裁员的开启，再到 特朗普的"对等关税"幅度大超 ...

前期报告提要与市场聚焦 前期观点回顾：特朗普关税 2.0，将加速美国"衰退"与美股趋势性调整。特朗普 2.0 关税影响：加速美国经济"衰 退"甚至"滞胀"，美股趋势性调整。一是美国通胀上行幅度将远胜于上一轮贸易摩擦。二是加速美国经济"硬着陆" 甚至"滞胀"风险开启。三是美股调整是趋势，而非暂时性。四是全球权益市场或共振调整。 当下市场聚焦：1、美国 4 月 2 日"对等关税"措施公布，对于权益市场影响几何？如何看待后续 A 股表现？2、对比 海外黄金股，股价高弹性的核心驱动力主要是什么？3、对比哈莫尼和巴里克基本面，我们可以得到什么规律？4、 如何筛选 A 股黄金股公司？ 美国滞胀风险升温，权益市场"波动率"上升 美国"对等关税"幅度和力度均远超市场预期。从本次"对等关税"措施来看：（1）本次"对等关税"的加征力度 远超市场预期，尤其是对"对美贸易逆差大"的国家所征收的关税水平更高；（2）对美贸易顺差较大的一些亚洲经 济体和欧盟受到的加征力度明显偏高，或反映特朗普旨在通过关税政策达到增加财政收入，缩减贸易逆差，以及促 进制造业回流的三大目标。我参考关税 1.0 的经验，本轮特朗普 2.0 关税政策将大概率加速 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for Q1 2025, projecting a range of RMB 28.22 billion to RMB 32.26 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 180% to 220% [2][3]. - The demand for high-speed trains is recovering, with expectations for continued revenue growth in the company's train business due to increased bidding and delivery volumes [4][5]. - The maintenance and repair segment of the railway equipment is expected to see a rise in revenue, with a projected growth of 25.2% in 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Event - On April 7, the company announced an expected net profit for Q1 2025 of RMB 28.22 billion to RMB 32.26 billion, marking a significant increase from the previous year [2]. Operational Analysis - The increase in product delivery volumes and the substantial rise in train bids from the national railway group are key drivers for the company's revenue growth in the train segment [3]. - The national railway's target for passenger volume and infrastructure investment in 2025 indicates a positive outlook for railway equipment demand [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for the company are RMB 266.7 billion, RMB 287.1 billion, and RMB 308.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 13.48 billion, RMB 14.67 billion, and RMB 15.94 billion [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic and liquidity signals to determine equity allocation recommendations[28] **Construction Process**: 1. The model uses dynamic macro event factors to assess economic growth and monetary liquidity signals[28] 2. Signal strength is calculated for each dimension, such as economic growth (0%) and monetary liquidity (50%) for April[28][29] 3. Equity allocation is recommended based on aggregated signals, with March equity allocation set at 25%[28][29] **Evaluation**: The model provides stable configuration recommendations based on macroeconomic and liquidity conditions[28][29] - **Model Name**: Micro-Cap Timing Model **Construction Idea**: The model uses risk warning indicators and trend signals to monitor micro-cap stock performance[32] **Construction Process**: 1. Trend signals are derived from the relative net value of micro-cap stocks and the rolling 20-day slope of closing prices[32][38][40] 2. Risk warning indicators include: - Ten-year government bond yield YoY (-20.45%) compared to a risk threshold of 0.3[32][33][34] - Volatility congestion YoY (-50.09%) compared to a risk threshold[32][33][35] **Evaluation**: The model effectively monitors risk and provides insights into micro-cap stock trends[32][33][34] Model Backtesting Results - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Year-to-date return: 1.06% - Benchmark (Wind All A): 1.90%[28] - **Micro-Cap Timing Model**: - Ten-year government bond yield YoY: -28.69%[33] - Volatility congestion YoY: -50.09%[33] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Stock Selection Factors **Construction Idea**: Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools[43] **Construction Process**: 1. Factors include value, size, growth, reversal, quality, technical, volatility, and consensus expectations[43][55] 2. Definitions: - **Value**: Metrics like SP_TTM (revenue/market cap) and EP_FY0 (expected net profit/market cap)[55] - **Size**: LN_MktCap (logarithm of market cap)[55] - **Growth**: ROE_FTTM (expected net profit/shareholder equity)[55] - **Quality**: OCF2CurrentDebt (operating cash flow/current debt)[55] - **Consensus Expectations**: TargetReturn_180D (expected price return)[55] - **Technical**: Skewness_240D (240-day return skewness)[55] - **Volatility**: IV_FF (Fama-French residual volatility)[55] - **Reversal**: Price_Chg120D (120-day return)[55] **Evaluation**: Factors provide diverse perspectives for stock selection and portfolio optimization[43][55] - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Factors **Construction Idea**: Factors are derived from the relationship between convertible bonds and their underlying stocks[47] **Construction Process**: 1. Factors include: - **Stock Consensus Expectations** - **Stock Growth** - **Stock Financial Quality** - **Stock Value** - **Convertible Bond Valuation** (e.g., parity premium rate)[47][50][51] **Evaluation**: Factors effectively capture convertible bond valuation and stock-related dynamics[47][50] Factor Backtesting Results - **Stock Selection Factors**: - IC Mean (All A Stocks): - Value: 16.95% - Size: 14.47% - Growth: 0.93% - Reversal: 9.10% - Quality: 1.75% - Technical: 3.90% - Volatility: 5.70% - Consensus Expectations: 4.29%[45] - Multi-Long-Short Returns (All A Stocks): - Value: 1.42% - Size: 1.84% - Growth: 0.77% - Reversal: 0.30% - Quality: 0.02% - Technical: 0.23% - Volatility: 0.13% - Consensus Expectations: 1.05%[45] - **Convertible Bond Factors**: - Multi-Long-Short Returns: - Stock Consensus Expectations: Positive - Stock Growth: Positive - Stock Financial Quality: Positive - Stock Value: Positive - Convertible Bond Valuation: Positive[47][50][51]

主要市场及行业指数表现 过去一个月，国内主要市场指数涨跌不一，上证 50 上涨 1.01%，中证 500、沪深 300、中证 1000、国证 2000 分别下 跌-0.04%、-0.07%、-0.70%、-0.84%。行业指数下跌偏多，在中信一级行业中有 13 个行业上涨，有色金属、家电、 煤炭、银行、国防军工等行业指数涨幅靠前，其中有色金属行业指数涨幅最大，月涨幅达 7.46%。电子、房地产、计 算机的行业指数涨跌幅靠后，月涨跌幅分别为-4.34%、-4.58%、-5.61%。 行业因子与行业轮动策略表现 三月因子表现分化，整体来看盈利、质量和超预期因子表现较好，IC 均值分别达到了 39.70%、 31.28%和 5.52%；收 益方面同样是盈利、质量和超预期因子能带来正的多空收益，分别达到 1.86%、2.57%和 0.82%；相对中信一级行业等 权基准的多头超额收益方面，盈利、质量和调研活动因子也分别达到 0.94%、1.85%和 1.15%。今年以来，盈利、分析 师预期和超预期因子的 IC 均值分别达到 11.79%、7.43%和 7.21%，表现较好；因子多空收益方面，盈利、质量和超预 期因子分别 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on semiconductor self-control, core computing hardware, Apple supply chain, and AI-driven beneficiary industries [3][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the impact of the 34% tariff imposed by the US on semiconductor imports from China, which is expected to accelerate the decoupling of the global semiconductor supply chain from the US [2][5]. - It highlights opportunities in domestic high-end semiconductor equipment and components, as well as the potential for domestic companies to replace imported parts [2][3]. - The report expresses a relatively optimistic view on the Apple supply chain, noting that the impact of tariffs can be managed through self-developed components and ongoing innovation [6][7]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariffs, leading to increased domestic production and innovation [2][3]. - Key companies to watch include North China Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others involved in high-end semiconductor equipment and components [3][7]. Consumer Electronics - The report indicates that the impact of tariffs on the Apple supply chain is manageable, with Apple transitioning to self-developed chips to mitigate costs [6][7]. - The demand for AI-related products, such as smart glasses and wearables, is anticipated to grow, driven by companies like Xiaomi and ByteDance [3][7]. PCB and Components - The PCB industry is showing signs of recovery, with demand driven by sectors like home appliances and automotive, alongside AI applications [8]. - The report notes that the pricing of LCD panels is increasing due to policies promoting upgrades, which is expected to support the overall market [22]. Storage and Memory - The report highlights a positive outlook for the memory sector, with NAND prices expected to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and increased AI infrastructure investments [24][25]. - Companies involved in storage modules and AI-driven storage solutions are recommended for investment [25]. Advanced Packaging and Equipment - The demand for advanced packaging is on the rise, with significant capital expenditures expected from major players like TSMC to support growth [27]. - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to experience substantial growth, particularly in China, with investments exceeding $100 billion over the next three years [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Neutral" investment rating for the industry, indicating an expected fluctuation within -5% to 5% compared to the broader market over the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The imposition of a 34% tariff by China on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, will significantly impact the prices and supply of ethane and propane, which are primarily imported from the U.S. [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to export 492 thousand barrels per day of ethane, with 227 thousand barrels per day (46%) going to China, highlighting China's heavy reliance on U.S. imports [2] - For propane, China is expected to import 29.32 million tons in 2024, with 17.31 million tons (59%) sourced from the U.S., indicating a high dependency on U.S. propane imports [2] - The increase in tariffs will likely lead to higher raw material costs for downstream products such as ethylene, polyethylene (PE), and propylene, resulting in price increases for these products [2] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the operational status of domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) facilities and ethane cracking units, as well as the price trends of relevant raw materials and products [2] Summary by Sections Section: Industry Analysis - The U.S. is the largest supplier of ethane and propane to China, and the new tariffs will significantly affect import prices and supply dynamics [2] - China's crude oil and natural gas imports from the U.S. are relatively small, with only 1.74% of crude oil and 5.73% of LNG imports coming from the U.S., suggesting limited impact on refining product prices [3] - The report notes that the price and supply of downstream petrochemical products like PX and PTA will be less affected by the tariffs compared to gas-based products [3] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report advises continuous monitoring of the price and operational rates of chemical raw materials and products due to the unpredictable nature of international political events affecting the market [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong investment outlook for the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing the resilience against tariff risks and highlighting opportunities in domestic substitution [13]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from ongoing innovations, particularly in the areas of innovative drugs and certain generic drugs, with potential catalysts from policy changes and upcoming data releases from major conferences [15]. - The report identifies key areas of focus, including blood products, certain medical devices, and innovative patented drugs, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic demand-driven sectors such as chain pharmacies and traditional Chinese medicine [13][15]. Summary by Sections Tariff Environment and Pharmaceutical Sector - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector has a strong capacity to withstand tariff risks, with a focus on domestic substitution opportunities [13]. - In 2024, China's pharmaceutical import and export trade is projected to reach $199.376 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports declining by 2% [12][13]. Drug Sector Developments - Significant advancements in IgA nephropathy treatments are noted, with major pharmaceutical companies like Otsuka and Novartis making progress in drug approvals [20][24]. - Otsuka's IgAN drug Sibeprenlimab has been submitted for FDA approval, while Novartis's drug Atrasentan has received accelerated approval for treating IgAN [20][24]. Biopharmaceuticals - Eli Lilly's siRNA therapy Lepodisiran has shown promising results in reducing lipoprotein(a) levels, a significant cardiovascular risk factor [27][32]. - The report highlights multiple innovative drugs targeting lipoprotein(a) that are currently in clinical trials, indicating a growing focus on this area [33]. Medical Devices - The report discusses the National Medical Products Administration's initiatives to support high-end medical device innovation, which is expected to drive growth in areas such as surgical robots and advanced imaging equipment [36]. - Key players in the medical device sector are anticipated to benefit from these supportive policies [36]. Medical Services - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the medical services sector, with solid performance reported by companies like Gushengtang and Times Angel [42]. - Gushengtang reported a 30% increase in revenue, reflecting strong growth in its offline medical institutions [42]. Traditional Chinese Medicine and Pharmacies - Yunnan Baiyao and Tongrentang are highlighted for their stable growth and high dividend payouts, with Yunnan Baiyao achieving a revenue increase of 2.36% [46][48]. - The report suggests that the pharmacy sector is recovering from previous policy impacts, with expectations for steady growth in the coming year [50].

摘要 | 海外市场行情回顾 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | ChatGPT 和 Gemini 热度上升明显 | | 4 | | HBM 挤压利基存储供给，Flash Wafer 周度涨幅环比下滑 | | 6 | | SK 海力士表示最快将在 HBM4E 中应用混合键合 | | 6 | | 高通官宣手机新一代旗舰芯片 | | 6 | | 消费电子动态 | | 8 | | 国内智能手机市场销量继续同比增长 | | 8 | | 2 PC 市场回暖 | 月 | 9 | | 风险提示 | | 9 | 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - ChatGPT 和 Gemini 因新模型及功能发布，访问量环比增长约 15%；国内 ChatGLM 受益于新模型发布，环比激增超 100%。即梦 AI 发布 3.0 版本，提升中文文字和图像生成能力；Runway 推出 Gen-4 模型，强调媒体生成的世界一 致性；阿里云通义千问 Qwen2.5-Omni 模型登顶 Hugging Face 榜单，支持多模态输入及实时文本语音输出 ...