Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the logistics sector, specifically in companies like SF Holding and Haichen Co., due to their resilience and growth potential [2][3]. Core Views - The express delivery industry has seen a significant increase, with national express delivery volume surpassing 1 trillion pieces, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, which is expected to benefit companies like Haichen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing robust growth, with major airports like Baiyun and Shenzhen expected to see significant profit increases in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with a slight increase in the BDI index but a decline in container shipping rates [4][36]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 0.7% during the week of July 5-11, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1% [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Express Delivery - The national express delivery volume has exceeded 1 trillion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [2]. - Jitu's package volume reached approximately 7.39 billion pieces in Q2 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index (CCPI) is at 4035 points, down 14.4% year-on-year [3]. - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals is 163 RMB/ton, down 13.9% year-on-year [3]. Aviation Airports - Baiyun Airport expects a net profit of 679 million to 830 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.06% to 89.51% [4]. - Shenzhen Airport anticipates a net profit of 287 million to 337 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.78% to 93.47% [4]. Shipping - The CCFI index for export container shipping is 1313.7 points, down 2.2% week-on-week and down 39.0% year-on-year [21]. - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is 1483.6 points, up 2.2% week-on-week but down 23.7% year-on-year [36]. Road and Rail Ports - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports was 25.988 million tons, down 5.28% week-on-week [5]. - The number of trucks passing through highways was 52.977 million, down 2.42% week-on-week but up 1.71% year-on-year [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the securities and insurance sectors, indicating potential for significant growth in the coming months [4][48]. Core Insights - The regulatory environment in mainland China is becoming more inclusive and proactive, particularly regarding the development of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, which may enhance the financial sector's focus on these emerging technologies [2]. - The performance of brokerage firms is expected to improve significantly, with several companies projecting substantial increases in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by favorable capital market conditions [3][28]. - The insurance sector is anticipated to see a near trillion yuan influx of funds into the market due to relaxed restrictions on insurance capital investments, with a focus on high-dividend stocks [4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - Several brokerage firms have reported impressive profit growth, with companies like Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng showing net profit increases of over 1000% [3][28]. - The report recommends focusing on three main investment themes: stablecoin-related brokers, multi-financial firms like Hong Kong Exchanges, and potential acquisition targets within the brokerage sector [3]. Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is expected to see a significant increase in market participation, with an estimated influx of nearly 1 trillion yuan in investment funds due to regulatory changes [4]. - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment in the insurance sector, particularly for companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations [4]. - Key investment opportunities include companies with expected strong performance in Q2, undervalued large-cap stocks, and solid defensive positions in the property and casualty insurance sector [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the A-share market has shown positive performance, with the non-bank financial sector outperforming the broader market [9]. - Data tracking indicates a significant increase in trading volumes and fundraising activities in the equity and bond markets, suggesting a robust market environment [11][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the renewable energy sector, particularly highlighting Sunshine Power and Daikin Heavy Industries as top recommendations [5][6][11]. Core Insights - The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaics, is identified as a benchmark industry in the current "anti-involution" movement, with significant price interventions showing initial effectiveness [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring terminal price transmission capabilities and the formation of consistent expectations regarding price increases across the supply chain [5][6]. - The electric grid sector is experiencing accelerated construction, with significant contract wins reported, indicating robust growth potential [2][11]. - The solid-state battery trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Shanghai Xiba and Ganfeng Lithium making notable advancements in battery technology [7][9][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The report highlights the photovoltaic industry as a key focus area within the new energy sector, with price interventions beginning to show results [5]. - It recommends Sunshine Power as a leading beneficiary of improved market conditions and optimistic Q2 performance outlooks [5][6]. Wind Power - Daikin Heavy Industries is noted for exceeding Q2 performance expectations, with a strong long-term profit outlook [6]. - The report discusses favorable policy developments in Hainan province for offshore wind projects, indicating potential order opportunities [6]. Electric Grid - The report notes that Siyuan Electric's Q2 revenue reached 5.3 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, with net profit up 62% [2][11]. - The State Grid's recent contract wins totaling 21.19 billion yuan reflect a 38% year-on-year increase, marking a new high for single-batch contract amounts [2][11]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the solid-state battery trend and the importance of lithium metal anodes as a long-term direction for battery technology [7]. - Companies like Shanghai Xiba are actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance their capabilities in lithium-related materials [12]. New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates a shift in the automotive market towards quality competition, with companies focusing on product quality rather than price competition [3]. - The launch of new models, such as the NIO L90, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and brand perception [18]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report notes a resurgence in interest in hydrogen energy, with government support and low valuations making it a potential investment hotspot [3]. Industry Events - Key industry events include the release of the "Notice on Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight" by the National Development and Reform Commission, which sets ambitious targets for renewable energy consumption [4][5]. - The report also highlights significant IPO plans from companies like Tianqi Materials and Xingyuan Materials, indicating a trend towards capital market engagement [10][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investing in ultra - long credit bonds is challenging due to high volatility. Since 2024, their yields have gone through multiple stages including rapid decline, adjustment, and oscillation [11]. - To improve the allocation win - rate, one can measure the cost - effectiveness of extending duration through credit spreads, understand institutional allocation behavior patterns, decide entry based on trading sentiment, and select high - liquidity value entities [4]. - The long - term stable market of ultra - long credit bonds generally requires continuous buying from trading accounts such as funds and wealth management products. Insurance mainly helps stabilize prices during market adjustments [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Volatility Ultra - Long Credit Bonds - **Yield Fluctuation Stages**: Since 2024, the yields of ultra - long credit bonds have experienced 3 bull markets, 2 adjustments, and 1 oscillation. For example, from January to March 2024, the yields declined slightly at first and then increased due to various events; from April to July 2024, the demand for ultra - long credit bonds increased under institutional under - allocation pressure [11]. - **Volatility and Investment Difficulties**: Although the volatility of ultra - long credit bonds in the second quarter of 2025 was lower than the same period last year, it was still higher than most of 2024 from January to April. The high volatility provides capital gain opportunities but is difficult for band - trading due to liquidity issues [16]. 3.2 How to Improve Allocation Win - Rate 3.2.1 Measure the Cost - Effectiveness of Extending Duration through Credit Spreads - **Credit Spread Channels**: By using the 30 - day average of credit spreads to form upper and lower tracks, when the credit spread touches the upper track, there is a large compression space, and when it touches the lower track, it may rebound. However, this indicator has some limitations and should be combined with other factors [21]. - **Term Spread Channels**: Similar to credit spreads, term spread channels can also be used to predict market trends. But they also have limitations in considering factors such as institutional behavior and policy changes [24]. - **Credit Spread Quantiles**: As of July 4, 2025, the credit spreads of some long - term bonds are at relatively low quantiles, indicating limited further compression space [27]. 3.2.2 Grasp the Laws of Institutional Allocation Behavior - **Insurance**: Ultra - long credit bonds match the duration of insurance products and can alleviate the asset shortage problem. Insurance is a stable buyer, but its buying volume is affected by the supply rhythm of interest - rate bonds and the "good start" seasonal pattern [32]. - **Wealth Management**: Due to bank quarterly assessments and fund repatriation, wealth management scale usually declines at the end of the quarter and rebounds at the beginning. In recent four years, there have been relatively large month - on - month increases in April and July, leading to an increased demand for credit bonds [38]. - **Public Funds**: Ultra - long credit bonds are attractive for their coupon income and duration offensive. Funds tend to extend duration in a bull market but increase selling during market adjustments [42]. - **Credit Bond ETFs**: Since late May, credit bond ETFs have expanded rapidly. By July 4, 2025, the scale of 8 benchmark - making market - making credit bond ETFs had increased to 13.22 billion yuan, which has promoted the bull market of ultra - long credit bonds [45]. 3.2.3 Decide Entry Based on Trading Sentiment - Currently, the sentiment of bond market investors participating in long - term credit bonds is over - heated. The trading deviation of credit bonds over 10 years has approached the levels during the strongest rising periods in 2024. However, the over - crowded market is increasing potential adjustment risks [53]. 3.2.4 Layout High - Liquidity Value Entities - When the ultra - long credit bond market starts, one can focus on the outstanding bonds of entities with large outstanding ultra - long bond scales and ratings of AA+ or above. For example, State Grid, Chengtong Holdings, and Sinochem Group have relatively large outstanding scales [60]. - Further, one can select entities with higher term spreads than the market average, indicating potential for long - term bond interest rate compression [61].

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio's returns have declined this week, with credit style portfolios experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to interest rate style portfolios. The weekly returns for the industrial ultra-long and municipal short-end sinking strategies were -0.1% and -0.13% respectively [2][14] - In the credit style portfolio, the industrial ultra-long and broker debt sinking strategies were among the few that still had positive returns, recording 0.1% and 0.03% respectively [2][15] - The average weekly return for the credit style time deposit heavy combination fell to -0.01%, with a controllable decline compared to the previous week. The short-duration combinations demonstrated strong volatility resistance [2][17] Group 2 - The coupon income from municipal heavy strategies has dropped to a low point, making it difficult to cover weekly capital gains losses. Most municipal heavy combinations have seen their annualized coupon income fall below 1.9% [3][24] - The coupon contributions from the credit style combinations have generally turned negative, particularly for the municipal dumbbell and secondary debt duration strategies, which fell into the -35% to -30% range [3][24] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, broker debt strategies have gained favor, with cumulative excess returns for broker debt duration, municipal dumbbell, and broker debt sinking strategies at 18.5bp, 15.6bp, and 12.4bp respectively [4][28] - The broker debt duration strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 1.92% since the second quarter, ranking just below the municipal dumbbell strategy, which is around 1.98% [4][28] - Short-duration strategies have outperformed the mid-to-long-term benchmarks, with the municipal short-end sinking strategy exceeding the mid-to-long-term benchmark by the largest margin since May [4][30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI-driven demand for high-performance chips is a key growth driver for TSMC, with FY25Q2 revenue reaching NT$933.8 billion (approximately USD 31.9 billion), exceeding market expectations and previous guidance [14][19] - The global PC device sales are projected to increase by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching approximately 68 million units, with Apple showing the strongest performance [21] - MediaTek reported a June revenue of NT$56.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31%, indicating strong growth potential in the AI PC market [27][30] Summary by Sections AI Developments - Moonshot AI launched and open-sourced the Kimi K2 model, which features 32 billion active parameters and aims to enhance agent applications in China [12][7] - Google's Veo AI has integrated a new image-to-video feature into its Gemini application, available in over 150 countries [13] TSMC Performance - TSMC's strong Q2 performance reflects ongoing high demand for advanced processes and packaging capacity driven by AI [14] - Key topics for TSMC's upcoming earnings call include AI demand sustainability, non-AI customer demand changes, and the impact of currency fluctuations on profit margins [19][20] PC Market Dynamics - According to IDC, global PC sales are expected to continue their upward trend, with Apple leading in growth [21][23] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the AI chip market, particularly between MediaTek and Qualcomm [27][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly regarding new IPOs and sectors such as new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][10]. Core Insights - The asset trading platform remains a clear direction for investment, with a focus on the expansion of various asset transactions and liquidity [3][10]. - The report highlights the positive trend in virtual assets, including stablecoins, with traditional financial institutions increasingly entering this space [3][10]. - Recent upgrades in subsidies for e-commerce and food delivery platforms are expected to benefit sectors like coffee and tea drinks, as well as advertising channels [3][10]. Industry Situation Tracking 1. Education - The Chinese education index increased by 2.47% from July 7 to July 11, outperforming major indices [11][20]. - Notable stock performances include New High Education Group rising by 24.18% and Fenbi increasing by 13.44% [11][20]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure due to macroeconomic impacts, with notable stock movements including Samsonite up by 3.76% and Prada down by 0.99% [22][24]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains highly prosperous, with significant benefits from platform subsidies, while tea drinks also see substantial gains [26][27]. - Luckin Coffee opened 373 new stores, with a focus on both first and second-tier markets [32]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index saw a slight increase of 0.18%, with stocks like Beike and Dingdong rising by 6.34% and 3.85% respectively [31][36]. - The competition in the e-commerce sector remains fierce, with significant subsidy initiatives impacting profitability [31][38]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index rose by 2.2%, with stocks like NetEase Cloud Music and iQIYI showing positive performance [37][42]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $374.04 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 8.8% and 17.9% respectively [41][43]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of regulatory frameworks for virtual assets in both the US and Hong Kong [48].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals starting August 1, 2023, as part of ongoing trade negotiations[2] - The 232 investigation allows the U.S. to impose tariffs under the guise of national security, with a high certainty of implementation compared to other tariff measures[3] - Current 232 tariffs include 25% on steel and aluminum, which were raised to 50% in June 2023, and 25% on automobiles and parts[3] Group 2: Upcoming Tariff Developments - The copper tariff will take effect on August 1, while the pharmaceutical tariff will be delayed by one to one and a half years[4] - The semiconductor 232 investigation is expected to conclude by the end of July 2023, with tariffs likely to be announced shortly thereafter[4] - Investigations into critical minerals, wood, and aircraft are ongoing, with results expected in October 2023, December 2023, and February 2026, respectively[4] Group 3: Implications of Tariff Policies - The 232 tariffs are designed to increase government revenue, with rates ranging from 25% to 200% on key products, potentially alleviating fiscal pressures[19] - The U.S. tariff system will consist of a global baseline tariff of 10%, reciprocal tariffs of 30%-50%, and 50% tariffs on critical industries[19] - The tariffs aim to encourage the return of key industries to the U.S. and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains[19]

Group 1 - The report highlights that both Chinese and US stock markets are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by optimistic investor expectations regarding future corporate capital returns. A-shares are pricing in a stabilization of ROE at historical lows, while US stocks are anticipating continued growth in ROE from already high levels [3][12][14] - Since Q4 2021, A-shares have faced declining capital returns due to intense competition amid trends of "de-financialization" and "de-real estate," while US stocks have benefited from government debt expansion stimulating demand, resulting in higher ROE [3][14][17] - The report anticipates a shift in trends, with US capital returns potentially facing downward pressure due to tax policies encouraging manufacturing investment and capital repatriation, while A-shares may see a recovery in capital returns driven by anti-involution policies, stronger overseas manufacturing activity, and a halt in debt contraction [3][4][17] Group 2 - Three key catalysts for the stabilization and recovery of A-share capital returns are identified: anti-involution policies, overseas manufacturing activity surpassing service sector growth, and the end of the debt repayment cycle [4][23][31] - The report provides an example from the cement industry, where current operational rates are at their lowest since 2019, and a rebound in price indices is expected by late 2024, indicating a potential recovery in ROE [4][23][25] - The report notes that the demand for domestic capital goods and intermediate products is expected to rise due to stronger overseas manufacturing activity compared to services, with significant rebounds in excavator sales and steel exports observed [4][27][29] Group 3 - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices have outpaced ROE, necessitating a buffer for uncertainty in recovery rhythms. The report emphasizes that the internal industry structure is more critical than the overall market [5][36] - The report discusses the historical context of PB (Price-to-Book) ratios, noting that the current PB levels are not extreme compared to historical standards, but the low absolute level of ROE may affect the pace of PB recovery [5][36][38] - A significant reduction in the proportion of stocks with low PB ratios has been observed, particularly in sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing, and banking, while traditional industries still show a high percentage of low PB stocks [5][38][40] Group 4 - The report suggests that the dynamics of capital returns are shifting, with domestic capital returns expected to stabilize and rise, while overseas capital returns may decline. This shift positions A-shares as more attractive compared to other markets [6][46] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as emphasizing equity over debt investments [6][46]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong investment outlook for the automotive sector, particularly in the areas of intelligent driving and robotics, indicating a robust growth trajectory for these industries. Core Insights - Intelligent Driving: BYD has achieved a breakthrough in L4-level smart parking, promising comprehensive safety coverage for users in China. Additionally, Shenzhou Car Rental has launched the world's first public autonomous rental service in collaboration with Baidu Apollo, redefining rental freedom [1][10]. - Robotics: The robotics industry maintains a steady upward trend, with domestic robots expected to see small-batch mass production in the second half of the year. Notable advancements include the launch of the A2-W general-purpose robot by Zhiyuan Robotics, showcasing high operational efficiency [2][24]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving - BYD has become the first globally to achieve L4-level smart parking, ensuring safety and loss coverage for users [9]. - Shenzhou Car Rental and Baidu Apollo have introduced an autonomous rental service, integrating advanced technology with a nationwide rental network [10]. - Chery and Momenta have launched the Fengyun A9L, featuring a sophisticated driving assistance system [11]. - Zhixing Technology has secured contracts for 14 vehicle models in just 30 days, demonstrating strong market competitiveness [12]. - The supply chain is evolving, with multiple new models equipped with advanced lidar technology, enhancing the smart driving capabilities of various vehicles [13][14][16]. Robotics - The robotics sector is experiencing significant developments, including the establishment of a technology capital integration plan to foster innovation [17]. - Zhiyuan Robotics has completed a major acquisition and showcased its A2-W robot's capabilities in a live demonstration [24]. - Yuejiang Robotics has launched a six-legged bionic robot, enhancing adaptability and operational capabilities [26]. - New products from Xinsong Robotics have broken traditional limitations, integrating mobility and dexterity [28]. - Investment activities are robust, with several companies securing significant funding to advance their robotics technologies [32][33].