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机械行业专题研究报告:量子计算专题:下一代计算革命,关注核心设备环节
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 14:49
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the quantum computing industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by domestic capabilities and international competition [3]. Core Insights - Quantum computing is positioned to break through computational bottlenecks, with major companies like Google and IBM planning to scale quantum bits to millions by 2030 [5][21]. - The industry is entering a critical application demonstration phase, with a shift in control among leading companies facilitating commercialization [27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upstream core devices, particularly dilution refrigerators and measurement control systems, as key areas for investment [3][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Quantum Computing, The Future is Coming - Quantum computing is expected to overcome computational limitations, with hardware comprising multiple layers including quantum data and measurement control [11]. - The principle of quantum superposition allows quantum bits to represent multiple states simultaneously, enhancing computational power exponentially [19][20]. Section 2: Quantum Computing as a Battleground Between China and the US - The global quantum computing market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 87.64% from 2024 to 2030, reaching $21.998 billion [26]. - The US has imposed restrictions on the export of quantum information products to China, making self-sufficiency in quantum technology essential for China [34][36]. Section 3: Industry Sentiment is Turning, Focus on Dilution Refrigerators and Measurement Control Systems - The upstream segment of the quantum computing industry accounts for 40% of the market, with significant growth expected in measurement control systems and dilution refrigerators [42]. - Key companies in the quantum computing sector have shown rapid revenue growth, indicating a turning point in industry sentiment [52]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies like Guandun Quantum and Hexin Instruments are highlighted as key players in the quantum computing landscape, with strategic moves to enhance their market positions [3][39].
地方债发行提速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 11:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and regional characteristics in the primary market, as well as the trading volume, price fluctuations, and regional differences in the secondary market [10][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - **Issuance Scale**: Last week (August 18 - 22, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, including 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. As of August 22, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in August reached 55 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6% of the monthly local bond issuance [10]. - **Fund Use**: "Special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project revenue" are the main areas for special bond fund investment [10]. - **Pricing**: The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 23BP, 22BP, and 19BP respectively [17]. - **Regional Differences**: In August, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei, Hunan, and Jiangsu were the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangsu's issuance scale of local bonds with a term of 7 years and less exceeded 50 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Ningxia, Gansu, and Jilin were above 2.2% [20]. 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Price Fluctuations**: Last week, the weekly fluctuations of the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes were a decline of 0.56% and 1.03% respectively, with a larger decline than the same - term treasury bonds and the same performance as ultra - long - term credit bonds [23]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Sichuan government bonds decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with a weekly decrease of 160 transactions. The trading volumes of local bonds in Guangxi and Zhejiang increased marginally [23]. - **Trading Income**: The average trading terms of government bonds in Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan were over 25 years, and the average trading income was basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [23].
英伟达(NVDA):公司点评:长期空间广阔,产品迭代顺利推进
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 08:39
我们认为公司除了算力芯片以外,网络通信产品也具备较深厚布 局,网络收入已经开始高速成长。公司有望成为重要的 AI 硬件平 台型公司。下游云厂商模型继续迭代、推理需求增长,有望成为 公司增长核心驱动力。主权 AI 的需求有望贡献额外需求,降低云 厂商需求波动。我们预计公司 FY26~FY28 GAAP 净利润分别为 1111.5、1641.6、1882.8 亿美元,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 28 日公司披露 FY26Q2(25.5~25.7)业绩,FY26Q2 实现营收 467.43 亿美元,同比+55.6%,环比+6.1%;公司 FY26Q2 GAAP 毛利率为 72.4%,GAAP 净利润为 264.22 亿美元;公司 FY26Q2 Non-GAAP 毛利率为 72.7%,Non-GAAP 净利润为 257.83 亿美元。 公司指引 FY26Q2 营收为 540 亿美元(±2%),其中未考虑任何 H20 对华出货。公司指引 FY26Q2 GAAP 毛利率为 73.3%,Non-GAAP 毛 利率为 73.5%。 经营分析 数据中心业务持续增长,产品迭代稳步推进。FY26Q ...
林洋能源(601222):电表稳步增长,海外开拓加速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 08:22
电站销售业务短期放缓,项目建设持续推进:上半年公司电站销 售业务实现收入 0.83 亿元,同比下降 91.3%,预计主要受"136 号 文"落地后行业整体项目转让放缓影响,上半年电站转让业务毛利 率约 54.5%,同比提升 38.15pct。公司上半年稳步推进项目建设, 截至报告期末,公司在建项目超 1225MW,开工项目超 495MW,并网 规模超 200MW,其中风电项目顺利建设并网 50MW;同期,获取五河 风电三期 150MW 指标,项目储备持续增加。随着各地"136 号文" 细则逐步落地,预计下半年电站转让业务有望逐步回暖。 业绩简评 储能规划开发加速,海外取得重要突破:上半年公司公司组织开 发多个储能项目,涵盖江宁、唐县、内蒙合计 1.3GWh,下半年拟 签约项目涵盖江宁、新疆独立储能等重点工程,累计规划容量逾 3.7GWh,战略储备项目约 2.2GWh 储能项目。海外方面,公司上半 年实现突破性进展,交付及新签合同金额超 5000 万元,中标金额 超 2.29 亿元,已发运交付设备超 60MWh,产品覆盖海外工商业小 柜、大储集装箱等多个序列,渗透欧洲、中东、亚太等核心区域。 盈利预测、估值与评 ...
指南针(300803):麦高证券经营大幅增长,先锋基金完成并表
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 07:58
麦高证券重整进展不及预期;定增募资不及预期;资本市场行情大 幅波动的风险。 业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 27 日,公司披露 2025 年度中期业绩:公司 2025 年 上半年实现营收 9.3 亿元,同比增长 71.6%;净利润为 1.4 亿元, 较上年同期扭亏,其中麦高证券净利润上半年为 0.7 亿元,同比增 长 614.5%,以及报告期内公司收购先锋基金股权并进行并表,形 成了0.66亿元的投资收益。报告期内公司扣非后归母净利润为0.7 亿元,较上年同期转亏。 2024 年第二季度,公司营业收入为 3.9 亿元,同比增长 56.2%; 净利润为 332 万元,扣非后归母净利润为 283 万元,均较上年同 期扭亏。 经营分析 金融信息服务业务 2025 年上半年营收为 6.8 亿元,同比增长 60.4%;销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金为 7.2 亿元,同比增长 46.9%。主要由于 2025 年第一季度公司开展完成了高端产品全赢 系列私享家版的营销,且报告期内市场行情较好。上半年销售费用 中的职工薪酬支出/金融信息服务收入为 26.1%,较上年同期该比 值下滑 2.3pct。 麦高证券上半年营收为 3.2 ...
PPI转正需要什么样的价格水平
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 06:00
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - If PPI is to turn positive by the end of this year, the average monthly PPI MoM from August to December needs to reach 0.43%, similar to the average during the 2016 supply - side reform. Commodity prices need to rise significantly, with rebar, anthracite, copper, and crude oil prices needing to increase by 11% from July levels [2][8]. - Given that crude oil and copper are globally - priced commodities and crude oil prices have been weakening, domestic - priced commodities like rebar and coal need to rise more for PPI to turn positive by the end of the year. For example, if oil and copper prices remain flat, rebar and anthracite need to rise about 20% from July averages [8]. - A more realistic scenario is for PPI to approach positive growth in Q2 next year. With a low - base effect, rebar, anthracite, copper, and crude oil prices only need to rise about 4% from July this year to drive PPI to turn positive [9]. - PPI turning positive depends on demand. Weak demand can block price transmission, requiring larger price increases in upstream commodities for PPI to turn positive [12]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Current Commodity Price Situation - Since July, commodities first rose and then slightly declined. As of mid - August, coal and ferrous metals rose 13.8% and 3.9% MoM respectively compared to mid - July, leading the increase among major commodities [4]. - Due to a low base last year, the PPI YoY in August is expected to rebound but will still remain in negative territory for the 34th consecutive month [4]. PPI Composition and Impact Factors - In the PPI composition, the weights of ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, crude oil, coal, and other commodities are 13.6%, 7.3%, 16.7%, 9.3%, and 53.2% respectively. From January to July 2025, crude oil, ferrous metals, coal, and other commodities dragged down PPI by 1, 0.9, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points respectively, while non - ferrous metals boosted PPI by 0.4 percentage points [4]. Representative Commodities for PPI - The spot prices of rebar, anthracite, copper, and Brent crude oil are selected as representative commodities for ferrous, coal, non - ferrous, and crude oil PPI, with correlation coefficients of 81%, 93%, 75%, and 96% respectively [5]. Historical Examples of Commodity Price Increases - In 2021, "sports - style" energy conservation and emission reduction drove coal prices up. In October 2021, anthracite prices rose 198% compared to April, driving the PPI YoY of the coal mining and washing industry from 13% to 103.7% in October [8]. - From 2016 - 2017, the supply - side reform drove up ferrous metal prices. At the end of 2016, rebar and wire rod prices rose 82% and 91% compared to the end of 2015, driving the PPI YoY of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry up by 35% at the end of 2016 [9]. Commodity Price Requirements for PPI to Turn Positive | Time | Rebar | Anthracite | Copper | Crude Oil | Average Commodity Price Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July Average | 3213 yuan/ton | 844 yuan/ton | 78644 yuan/ton | 71 dollars/ton | - | | Q4 2025 | 3580 yuan/ton | 940 yuan/ton | 87609 yuan/ton | 79 dollars/ton | 11% | | Q1 2026 | 3519 yuan/ton | 924 yuan/ton | 86115 yuan/ton | 78 dollars/ton | 10% | | Q2 2026 | 3342 yuan/ton | 877 yuan/ton | 81789 yuan/ton | 74 dollars/ton | 4% | [10]
医药生物行业研究:从数据、算力、模型切入的3类龙头,看全球AI制药全景图
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 05:45
Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong investment outlook for the AI pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the imminent approval of the first AI-driven drug as a pivotal moment for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The application of AI in drug development is transitioning from concept to reality, with multi-omics development expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency by 1000 times, marking the dawn of a new era in innovative drug development [12][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of computational power, data quality, and model development as critical factors driving the success of AI in pharmaceuticals [3][48]. - Major technology companies are entering the AI pharmaceutical space, with significant investments from top pharmaceutical firms, indicating a robust shift in the industry landscape [4][5]. Summary by Sections AI Application and Industry Transformation - AI applications in pharmaceuticals are moving towards practical implementation, with significant milestones such as the success of AlphaFold in protein structure prediction [12]. - The report notes that the AI pharmaceutical sector is on the verge of a transformative phase, driven by advancements in multi-omics applications [16]. Computational Power and Data Utilization - The availability of cloud computing resources from major tech companies like Amazon and Google is enhancing the computational capabilities necessary for AI applications in drug development [3]. - Innovations in federated learning are breaking down data silos, allowing for better data sharing while maintaining privacy, which is crucial for AI model training [37][39]. Industry Dynamics and Major Players - The entry of tech giants like NVIDIA and Google into the AI pharmaceutical space is reshaping the industry, with substantial investments in AI drug development [4]. - Leading pharmaceutical companies are also heavily investing in AI-related initiatives, with over $50 billion in significant transactions occurring in the past five years [4]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on companies with rich pipelines and strong validation capabilities, such as Insilico Medicine and Crystal Holding, as they are poised to benefit from the upcoming breakthroughs in AI drug approvals [5]. - It also suggests monitoring traditional pharmaceutical companies that are making significant strides in AI, such as CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and Fosun Pharma, for potential high returns [5].
九月策略及十大金股:新高后的下一站
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 05:27
Group 1: Core Views - The report emphasizes that the global stock market has seen significant increases since the tariff conflicts in April, with A-shares showing strong performance due to improved manufacturing sentiment and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [4][12] - The report suggests that the A-share market's strength is driven by China's sensitivity to global manufacturing demand and diverse external markets, alongside supportive domestic policies [4][12] - The report indicates that the TMT and military sectors have outperformed, with valuation levels reaching historical highs, while the healthcare sector and ChiNext still show significant valuation dispersion [4][13] Group 2: Industry Recommendations - For the machinery sector, Xugong Machinery is recommended due to domestic demand stabilization and overseas market recovery, with short-term catalysts from specific projects [19] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, China Rare Earth is favored due to policy support and rising processing fees, indicating a potential third wave of price increases [20] - China Pacific Insurance is highlighted in the non-bank financial sector, benefiting from low valuations and expected profit growth due to a favorable shift in product offerings [21] - In the building materials sector, Keda Manufacturing is recommended for its strong market position and growth potential in African markets [22] - For transportation, Milkewei is noted for its integrated logistics and chemical distribution advantages, with growth expected in the hazardous materials logistics sector [23] - In defense and military, AVIC Chengfei is recognized as a leading manufacturer with strong growth prospects in military exports and technological innovation [24] - In the biopharmaceutical sector, Kelun-Bio is recommended for its leading position in ADC technology and strong pipeline prospects [25] - Tencent Holdings is highlighted in the media and internet sector for its AI integration and growth in advertising revenue [26] - In the electronics sector, Lante Optics is favored due to strong demand in automotive and smart imaging applications [28] - Hikvision is recommended in the computer sector for its recovery in operating quality and growth in AI-related products [30]
明阳智能(601615):制造盈利小幅修复,“两海”有望逐步贡献弹性
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 03:42
业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 27 日公司披露 25 年半年报,上半年公司实现营收 171.4 亿元,同比增长 45.3%;实现归母净利润 6.1 亿元,同比下 降 7.7%;其中,公司 Q2 实现营收 94.4 亿元,同比增长 40.4%, 环比增长 22.5%,实现归母净利润 3.1 亿元,同比下降 13.6%,环 比增长 1.9%。 经营分析 收入规模大幅增长,制造盈利预计小幅修复:上半年公司实现产 品销售收入 158 亿元,同比增长 51.2,毛利率约为 10.1%,同比 改善 0.20pct;其中风机及配件销售业务实现收入 124.8 亿元,同 比增长 57.5%,占比 79%,同比提升 3pct;电站产品销售业务收入 31.4 亿元,同比增长 48.6%,占比 20%,同比持平。考虑到上半年 产品销售收入中风机制造业务占比略有提升,以及在"136"号文 落地背景下电站产品销售毛利率大概率下降,我们预计风机及配 件销售业务毛利率存在小幅改善。展望后续,在风机价格企稳回升 的背景下,看好公司制造端毛利率持续回暖。 "两海"战略稳步推进,有望逐步贡献业绩弹性:海风方面,上半 年公司成功实现全球单体容量 ...
蜜雪集团(02097):收入利润超预期,海外拓展新地区
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 03:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.693 billion yuan, up 42.9% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue exceeded expectations, with strong cost control leading to profits also surpassing forecasts. The sales from products and equipment reached 14.495 billion yuan and 0.38 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 39.6% and 29.8% [3]. - The company accelerated its store openings, surpassing 53,000 global stores, with a net increase of 6,535 stores in the first half of 2025 [4]. - Domestic growth remains robust while international expansion is being optimized, particularly in Southeast Asia and Central Asia [4]. Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards, expecting net profits of 5.953 billion yuan, 6.436 billion yuan, and 7.183 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [5]. - Key financial metrics indicate a revenue growth rate of 49.55% for 2023, with a projected growth of 22.29% in 2024 [10].