存量市场特征 超长信用债价格续跌。本周（2025.8.25-2025.8.29 ，下同）周内债市虽有修复，但市场对超长债情绪仍偏观望，超长 信用债收益率进一步上行。与上周相比，2.4%-2.5%收益率的存量超长信用债只数增长较多。 一级发行情况 超长信用新债供给维持低增长。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 62.5 亿，供给量持续处于较低水平，或是因为长债 发行成本仍不算低，发债主体还在等待时机。虽然在新债发行利率方面，最新一周超长信用新债票面利率降幅已然不 小，但绝对值仍位于年内较高水平。新债认购情绪上，或是修复情绪带动，以及可配债券资产的缩量，本周超长信用 新债认购热度又有回弹。 二级成交表现 超长信用债指数价格未有修复。前半周债市小幅修复，10 年以上国债指数周内涨跌幅回归正值，但超长信用债指数仍 在走跌，10 年以上 AA+信用债指数环比下跌 0.43%。 超长信用债交易情绪偏弱。本周超长信用债流动性有进一步枯竭的态势，最为活跃的 7-10 年产业债成交笔数已降至 160 笔，10 年以上信用债成交合计不足 30 笔。成交收益方面，7 年以上城投债收益率修复幅度在 7bp 之上，但超长产 业债收益率却未有 ...

公募基础设施REITs周报 主要结论 口 二级市场表现 结合国金金融产品REITs加权价格指数及其他大类资产 的周度涨跌来看， 本周（2025/08/25~2025/08/29） REITs加权指数上涨1.20%，收于 101.29点：中证全指上涨1.84%，中证转债下跌2.58%，中债净价指数上涨0.05%，伦敦金现上涨1.32%，原油品种加权下跌1.44%；本周各大类资产 收益表现由高到低排序依次为：股票>黄金>REITs>纯债>原油>转债。 从REITs特有的底层资产项目性质来看，本周产权类下跌2.07%至112.64、特许经营权类下跌1.08%至84.97。从持有项目的行业类型来看，本周 产业园区类上涨1.12%至91.95、仓储物流粪上涨1.37%至103.92、生态环保类上涨2.03%至103.57、高速公路类上涨0.94%至72.77、能源类上涨 0.21%至110.78、保租房类上涨1.86%至116.95、消费类上涨2.21%至153.52、数据中心上涨1.28%至100.28: 周度收益表现由高到低排序依次为：消 费类>生态环保类>保租房类>仓储物流类>数据中心>产业园区类>高速公路类>能 ...

转债择券+择时策略周度跟踪 (20250818-20250824) 金融产品中心 证券研究报告 报告日期: 2025/8/25 本周,三个策略共同持仓的标的包括浦发转债、牧原转债、23希望E1、立讯转债、韦尔转债 、 莱东转债 、 乐普 转2、蓝帆转债、仙乐转债、宏图转债等22只转债;期权策略维持低换手,新增关注标的较少;次低价策略近期 换手升高,或许是由于权益端热度高,涨幅弹性大,热度传导到转债,使得转债价格和因子波动增大。 行业维度,模型推荐方向指向科技板块,主要驱动因子为动量因子,与我们前期报告中的结论较为一致。本期推 荐方向与当前权益市场的主线较为一致,具体行业包括:通信、电子、计算机、电力设备、家用电器、因子得分边 际增持计算机,家电因子得分环比下滑,但仍在推荐行业之中。 | 可转债代码 | 可转债简称 | 行业(申万 | 蛋甜一期得分 | 平价庭价灌价率 转债收盘价 | | 债项评级 | YTH (%) | 债券余额 | 过去一周涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一级) | | | | | ...

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of the year, with a slight appreciation in early 2023 due to a weaker dollar, followed by a rapid depreciation in April due to tariff concerns, and a return to appreciation from May onwards[2] - As of late August, the RMB has entered a strong appreciation phase, with the onshore and offshore rates converging towards the 7.0 level, indicating support from both fundamental and policy factors[2][5] Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The narrowing of the China-US 10-year Treasury yield spread by nearly 50 basis points over the past three months has provided a basis for recent RMB appreciation, driven by a mild increase in China's risk-free interest rates and a decline in US Treasury yields[7] - Changes in policy risk premiums have favored the RMB, as rising uncertainty in US fiscal and monetary policies contrasts with China's efforts to reduce sovereign risk premiums through reforms[6][14] - The long-standing undervaluation of the RMB is changing, with IMF data indicating that 1 USD has a purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB, suggesting the current exchange rate is undervalued by over 50%[17][20] Catalysts for Recent Appreciation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released strong appreciation expectations through its midpoint rate, influenced by geopolitical negotiations and domestic stability considerations[3][31] - The bullish trend in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% and the ChiNext Index over 20% in August, has led to increased foreign investment and demand for RMB[40] Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, but factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery suggest a stable appreciation pace is more beneficial for fundamental recovery[47] - The importance of the RMB against a basket of currencies is anticipated to rise, reflecting the need for a more balanced exchange rate strategy[49]

基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 数说公募纯债及混合资产策略基金2025半年报 ——机构增配"固收+"，含权资产加仓成长方向 2025/9/2 2 资产配置 持有人结构 持仓特征 1 2 3 大固收体系（主动管理） 现金管理策略 纯债策略 混合资产策略 货币市场基金 短期纯债基金 中长期纯债基金 一级债基 转债型基金 转债风格型基金 二级债基 "固收+转债" "固收+权益" 偏债混合型基金 灵活配置-偏债 分类说明：wind二级分类为"可转换债券型基金"及"兴全可转债"判定为"可转债型基金"；近4个季度转债持仓（占资产净值比）均值在40%以上且不为"转债型基金"的判断为"转债风格型基 金"；基金类型为灵活配置型，近1年权益仓位均值小于40%，且近1年债券仓位均值大于60%的，判定为灵活配置型-偏债基金。 3 4 5 6 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 基金成立日 | 基金经理 | 基金规 | 机构持有份 | | 近1年回报(%) | 近1年回报排名 | 近1年年化波动率(%) 近1年波动率排 | | 名（由小到大） 近3年回报(%) 近3年回报排 | | 近3年年化波 | 近3年波动率排 | 基金类型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 5.46, 6.06, and 6.78 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 19, and 17 times [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue of 0.54% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, totaling 6.603 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 42.85% to 983 million yuan [2]. - The core subsidiary, Jinsai Pharmaceutical, achieved revenue growth of 6.17% year-on-year, amounting to 5.469 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 37.35% to 1.108 billion yuan [2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching 1.335 billion yuan, a 17.32% increase year-on-year, which now constitutes 20.21% of its revenue [2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.605 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.16%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40.75% to 510 million yuan [2]. - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025 to 2.225 billion yuan, a 13.85% decrease from the previous year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4]. R&D and Product Development - Jinsai Pharmaceutical is focusing on innovative treatments in various therapeutic areas, including immunology and oncology, with new products like the IL-1β monoclonal antibody and GenSci120 injection entering clinical trials [3]. - The company is actively enhancing its R&D capabilities and talent acquisition to support the development of new products, which is reflected in the increased R&D expenses [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.225 billion yuan in 2025, 2.471 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.766 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 5.455, 6.056, and 6.779 yuan [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 12.364 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.18% from the previous year, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the following years [9].

分析师：姚遥 S1130512080001 联系人：彭治强 • 25H1抢装需求带动下，板块收入、盈利实现增长。据【SW风电设备】口径统计，上半年风电板块实现营收1047亿元，同比增长 45.6%；实现归母净利润42.3亿元，同比增长15.5%；其中，25Q2风电板块实现营收664亿元，同比+52.4%；实现归母净利润29亿元， 同比+19%，创近23年来以来的单季度新高。收入规模高增背景下，各环节期间费用率均实现1-3pct的显著改善；25H1行业整体毛 利率及净利率同比有所下降，主要受制造收入占比提升，整机环节毛利率下降影响，上游零部件、塔桩环节受益于需求高景 气、产能利用率提升及价格上涨主营业务毛利率大多实现明显修复。 • 从资产负债表及在手订单指标看，25H2及26FY需求有望维持高景气。截至报告期末，大部分环节存货及合同负债位于历史较 高水平，预计下半年行业装机需求有望延续高增。从整机企业在手订单看，头部企业在手订单同环比均保持向上增长，按照 24年吊装市占率测算当前行业在手订单约300GW，看好26年国内装机继续增长。 • 头部整机企业制造端盈利大多实现改善，龙头α显著，出海进入放量前夕。上半年金 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the consumer goods sector, with specific recommendations for companies that demonstrate resilience and growth potential in challenging market conditions [2][4]. Core Insights - The consumer goods sector is experiencing pressure on overall demand and intensified market competition, characterized by declining prices, slow product structure upgrades, and increased costs for acquiring potential customers [2][3]. - Despite the overall challenges, certain companies are performing well, particularly those with strong brand positioning and innovative product offerings, such as salt and pepper products and energy drinks [2][4]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: companies with solid fundamentals and growth potential in the next 2-3 years, and those that may benefit from a recovery in demand across various segments [5][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Snack Foods - The snack food segment shows a divergence in performance, with leading brands like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue growth, while others face challenges due to channel shifts and lower consumer spending [3][12]. - The report notes that the market is transitioning from channel-driven growth to category-driven growth, with health-oriented products gaining traction [12][19]. 2. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain segment is under pressure, with major players like Hai Tian and Zhong Ju experiencing varied revenue growth rates, reflecting the competitive landscape and changing consumer preferences [4][34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to consumer trends, such as the increasing demand for healthy and convenient food options [33][34]. 3. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is witnessing improved sales during peak seasons, with health-focused products like sugar-free tea and electrolyte drinks gaining market share [4][12]. - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng are highlighted for their strong performance, with significant revenue increases reported [4][12]. 4. Dairy Products - The dairy segment is facing challenges, particularly in liquid milk demand, but cost advantages are noted for certain products, leading to improved profit margins for some companies [5][29]. - The report suggests that companies with diversified product lines and effective cost management strategies are better positioned to navigate the current market conditions [5][29].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the medical device industry, indicating that the adjustment period is nearing its end and a recovery is expected in the second half of 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery trend, with domestic bidding demand showing signs of restoration in the second half of 2025 after a significant decline due to policy delays [2]. - The medical consumables segment is steadily growing, with a slight increase in gross margin, indicating resilience in demand related to patient treatment needs [2]. - The in-vitro diagnostics sector is under pressure, but there is potential for increased domestic market share for local manufacturers in the long term [2]. - Leading medical device companies are accelerating their overseas market expansion, with many reporting higher growth rates in international markets compared to domestic ones [2]. Summary by Sections Medical Equipment - Revenue for Q2 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 5.26%, with net profit down 27.93% and gross margin decreasing from 53.07% in Q2 2024 to 49.00% in Q2 2025 [16]. - The industry is expected to reach a turning point as domestic bidding demand recovers [2][18]. Medical Consumables - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 1.33% year-on-year, with net profit down 6.28% and a slight improvement in gross margin from 42.13% to 42.24% [23]. - The segment is characterized by stable growth, with companies focusing more on R&D and innovative products [2]. In-Vitro Diagnostics - Revenue for Q2 2025 decreased by 16.53% year-on-year, with net profit down 37.58% and gross margin declining from 62.43% to 59.66% [29]. - The sector faces short-term demand pressure but may benefit from increased domestic production rates in the long run [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three key areas: companies leading in international market product and channel expansion, domestic medical device industry leaders, and high-value consumables firms with strong innovation capabilities [34]. - Specific companies to watch include Nanwei Medical, Mindray Medical, Sanofi, and Xinjiang Technology [34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery in the military industry, particularly in missile and military electronics sectors, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the industry [1][3]. Core Insights - The military industry is actively preparing for production in the first half of 2025, with revenue recovery observed in Q2. The electronic information sector is experiencing alleviated pricing pressures, while the aviation sector is expected to accelerate deliveries in the second half of the year [3][4][14]. - The overall revenue for the military industry in the first half of 2025 was 227.8 billion, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, but a recovery of 3.3% in Q2 compared to the previous quarter [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 14.3 billion, down 28.0% year-on-year, but showing a significant recovery of 84.5% in Q2 compared to Q1 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The military industry is seeing a significant increase in contract liabilities compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a recovery in the upstream revenue sector in Q2 2025 [11][27]. - The first half of 2025 saw a gross margin of 22.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.3%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [6][19]. Segment Performance - In the electronic information sector, revenue reached 38.2 billion, with an 8.7% year-on-year increase, while net profit was 2.93 billion, down 2.1% year-on-year [16][19]. - The aviation sector reported revenue of 146.9 billion, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, with net profit down 33.4% [16][19]. - The weaponry sector showed a revenue increase of 26.0% year-on-year, with net profit down 6.4% [16][19]. Industry Chain Insights - The downstream sector's contract liabilities increased significantly, reflecting a recovery in the upstream revenue sector in Q2 2025 [27][34]. - The gross margin for the upstream sector was 34.9%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.8%, down 3.9 percentage points [29][30].