基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 数说公募权益及FOF基金三季报 ——成长主线多层次扩散，机构抱团同步推进 王子薇 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130524010001 王聃聃 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130521100001 2025/11/3 主动权益基金2025年三季报总结 ◼ 基金市场概况：A股三季度呈现高贝塔全面上行、成长主导的结构性牛市特征，港股表现与A股同频共振。风格上，大、中、小盘成长指 数均显著跑赢价值，大盘成长领跑，反映成长主线内部投资机会的多层次扩散与机构抱团的同步推进；行业指数方面，申万31个行业除 银行外其余各行业指数均取得正收益，其中，科技制造和有色表现较好，金融整体偏弱。主动权益基金延续小幅净赎回，但净值驱动整 体规模显著上升；基金发行数量和规模均有明显提升，为近三年来新高。 ◼ 基金持仓情况：权益基金仓位有所上升，平均股票仓位为88.98%；港股仓位经历了超过一年持续大幅提升后，本季度略微下降。重仓股 板块配置方面，权益基金集中增持TMT方向，主要为业绩价格同步修复、政策与产业中周期指引、资金与风格共识强化、红利与消费相 对吸引力走弱的合力结果，机构在新质生产力+科技制造 ...

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations increasing [1][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has rebounded, with volatility in major indices, except for the Shenzhen 100, also increasing [2][25] - Trading activity in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, electric new energy, chemicals, machinery, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of major indices has mostly increased, with telecommunications and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and telecommunications, with a month-on-month increase in research intensity for pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, textiles, and retail [3][43] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 have been adjusted, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, electric power, and public utilities seeing upward revisions [4][21] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has decreased [4][17] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index for 2025/2026 have been downgraded [4][23] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with a net buying of A-shares overall [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors such as electric new energy, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals has increased [5][32] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, net buying was mainly in the computer, electronics, and chemicals sectors [5][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to slightly rebound, reaching a three-week high [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing was in electric new energy, telecommunications, and machinery sectors [6][36] - The proportion of financing purchases in banking, media, and pharmaceuticals has increased month-on-month [6][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have increased, with net subscriptions in ETFs overall [7][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy sectors [7][46] - New equity fund establishment scales have rebounded, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing increases [7][50]

Investment Rating - The report suggests that cold plate liquid cooling is expected to become the mainstream cooling solution for data centers, with significant potential in 3D printing for liquid cooling plate manufacturing [5]. Core Insights - Cold plate liquid cooling is anticipated to dominate the data center cooling market due to its higher efficiency compared to traditional air cooling, especially as GPU power design continues to increase [1][12]. - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching 184 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.3 trillion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% [20][22]. - 3D printing technology is identified as the optimal manufacturing route for liquid cooling plates, offering advantages such as design freedom and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional machining methods [2][54]. - Microchannel liquid cooling plates are becoming a new trend, with 3D printing further enhancing their performance by allowing for complex designs that improve heat dissipation [3][66]. - The report highlights the challenges and breakthroughs in 3D printing of copper materials, which are crucial for effective heat transfer in liquid cooling applications [4][80]. Summary by Sections 1. Cold Plate Liquid Cooling as a Mainstream Solution - The cooling process in data centers can be categorized into air cooling and liquid cooling, with liquid cooling being more efficient due to its higher heat transfer capabilities [12][18]. - Cold plate liquid cooling, as an indirect cooling method, does not require direct contact with liquids, making it more operationally feasible and widely applicable [28][33]. 2. 3D Printing as the Optimal Manufacturing Technology - 3D printing offers unique advantages over traditional machining, such as the ability to create complex geometries and reduce production costs [2][54]. - The technology allows for continuous optimization of flow channel designs, which significantly impacts the cooling performance of liquid cooling plates [60][64]. 3. Emerging Trends in Microchannel Liquid Cooling - Microchannel liquid cooling plates are defined by their small channel diameters, which enhance heat transfer efficiency, and 3D printing is expected to play a crucial role in their production [3][67]. - The report notes that traditional manufacturing methods face limitations in producing microchannel structures, making 3D printing a more viable option [71][79]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong technological capabilities in metal 3D printing, particularly those specializing in copper 3D printing [5][97]. - Specific companies highlighted include Nanfeng Co., Ltd., Plitec, and Huazhu High-Tech, which are actively engaged in the development and production of 3D printed liquid cooling plates [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (October 27 - October 31), bond - type ETFs had a net capital inflow of 12.7 billion yuan. Credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs had net inflows of 9.9 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 1.7 billion yuan respectively. Their cumulative unit net value weekly growth rates were +0.26%, +0.42%, and +0.69% respectively, with a slight recovery in net values [2][13]. - Recently, interest - rate bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs continued the recovery trend, with cumulative unit net values closing at 1.19 and 1.04 respectively. As of October 31, the cumulative yield of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs increased to 0.95% (with February 7 as the base date), and the cumulative yield of science - innovation bond ETFs marginally recovered to 0.13% (with July 17 as the base date), entering the positive range [5][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance Progress Tracking - No new bond ETFs were issued last week [3][17]. 3.2 Stock Product Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were 140.9 billion yuan, 375.5 billion yuan, and 67.8 billion yuan respectively. The scale of credit - bond ETFs accounted for 64.3%. Compared with last week, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs increased by 5.41 billion yuan, 4.93 billion yuan, and decreased by 1.18 billion yuan respectively. Products with significant scale growth last week included Tianhong CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF and Penghua 0 - 4 Local Government Bonds, with a year - on - year scale growth of over 3 billion yuan [4][19][21]. - Among credit - bond ETFs, the circulating market values of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were 122.2 billion yuan and 252.1 billion yuan respectively, increasing by 760 million yuan and 7.47 billion yuan compared with last week [24]. 3.3 ETF Performance Tracking - Based on the average trends of the cumulative unit net values of 16 interest - rate bond ETFs and 35 credit - bond ETFs, recently, interest - rate bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs continued the recovery trend, with cumulative unit net values closing at 1.19 and 1.04 respectively [27]. - As of October 31, with February 7 as the base date, the average cumulative yield of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs increased to 0.95%; with July 17 as the base date, the cumulative yield of science - innovation bond ETFs marginally recovered to 0.13%, entering the positive range [5][32]. 3.4 Premium/Discount Rate Tracking - Last week, the average premium/discount rates of credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 0.09%, - 0.02%, and - 0.03% respectively. The average trading price of ETFs was lower than the fund's unit net value, indicating low allocation sentiment. Specifically, the weekly average premium/discount rates of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were - 0.13% and - 0.10% respectively [6][37]. 3.5 Turnover Rate Tracking - Last week, the turnover rate was interest - rate bond ETFs > credit - bond ETFs > convertible - bond ETFs. The weekly turnover rates of the three types of products all increased marginally, reaching 162%, 150%, and 107% respectively. Specifically, products such as Haifutong Shanghai Stock Exchange 5 - year Local Government Bond ETF, Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - making Treasury Bond ETF among interest - rate bond ETFs, and Huaan CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, Science - innovation Bond ETF Yongying among science - innovation bond ETFs had relatively high turnover rates [7][42].

分析师 ：陈传红 S1130522030001 分析师 ：冉婷 S1130524100001 核心观点 投资建议 关注新技术迭代及零部件门票行情。（1）本体：汽车主机厂、3C品牌商因为掌握需求场景以及硬件供应链，相对竞争优势正在提升， 同时拥有大脑以及硬件迭代能力和需求场景的如华为、字节、小米等机器人，仍然是商业逻辑最顺的。（2）供应链：紧握"门票行 情"+技术迭代。1）门票行情：25H2重点关注特斯拉、智元、华为供应链，特斯拉链是最快进入小批量的供应链，关注触觉传感器、谐 波减速器、摆线针轮、高功率密度电机、peek以及粉末冶金工艺；智元供应链变化点在于垂直商业模式的重构，重点推荐全尺寸人形 机器人ODM宁波华翔，并关注其peek布局。2）技术迭代：重点关注灵巧手、电机和peek等。 风险提示 机器人应用场景落地不及预期，技术迭代不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 2 2025/11/3 1 资料来源：国金证券研究所 4 | 指标 | 2025Q3 | YOY/pct | 2025Q1-Q3 | YOY/pct | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收（亿元） | 1549.84 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 4000 points after ten years, with a peak of 4025.7 points reached last Thursday[6] - The power equipment sector led the market with a 4.29% increase, while the communication sector fell by 3.59%[6] Financial Data - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in risk appetite for leveraged funds[6] - Northbound trading volume increased by 19% to an average of 265.7 billion yuan, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 760 million yuan[6] Economic Indicators - Industrial added value growth is expected to decline to approximately 5.5% year-on-year in October[4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decrease by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to drop by 2.2%[4] Investment Trends - Retail sales growth is anticipated to slow to around 1% due to weakened consumption in sectors like automobiles[4] - Export growth is forecasted at 2.5% for October, facing challenges from high base effects[4] Credit and Investment - New credit issuance is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 300 billion yuan in new loans for October[4] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth is projected to rebound but will still show a cumulative decline of about 0.8%[4]

风险提示 国内经济修复不及预期；测算误差。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 盈利新格局：GDP>营收>盈利增长的不等式正在逆转 截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，全部 A 股 2025 年三季报披露完毕。全部 A 股营收展现韧性，Q3 单季度同比增速为 3.8%， 连续两个季度维持正增长的同时，自 2023 年来首次超过名义 GDP。这背后体现的是：一方面国内反内卷限制了投资与 部分行业企业的生产活动；另一方面较高证券化率的出口行业维持高景气且有企业开始陆续出海，对上市公司业绩拉 动比 GDP 更为明显。但不排除未来景气度逐步扩散到更多实体企业，从而出现宏观经济整体的企稳回升，在 2025 年 Q3 我们看到全部 A 股（非金融地产）的库存增速回升至 4.5%，产业链补库周期正在开启。在更为重要的盈利层面， 2025 年 Q3 全部 A 股（非金融地产）归母净利润累计同比增速扭转了 Q2 的下行趋势，边际改善 0.9 个百分点至 3.8%。， 在反内卷政策与外需强韧性的共同带动下，净资产收益率（TTM）回升至 7.5%，连续两个季度改善，利润率的修复为 主要驱动，"盈利底"正在不断得到夯实。往后看，随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that most sectors are at the bottom, suggesting opportunities for alpha layout [2] Core Viewpoints - The home furnishing sector is experiencing pressure in domestic sales, while export performance shows resilience. The overall revenue for the domestic home furnishing sector in Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 0.96% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 23.80% [10][12] - In the paper packaging sector, upstream pulp mills are reducing supply due to profit pressures, while downstream paper demand is gradually recovering, leading to a stabilization in prices [2][10] - The personal care sector is facing challenges in online sales, but offline performance remains stable, with major companies adjusting their marketing strategies to improve profitability [2][10] - The new consumption sector, driven by IP and AI glasses, is showing growth potential, with companies like Pop Mart and Meta launching new products [2][10] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales in Q3 2025 are under pressure, with revenue down 1.19% year-on-year and net profit down 15.79%. The external sales sector shows resilience with a 1.91% increase in revenue [10][12] - The performance of soft furniture companies is better than that of custom furniture companies, attributed to faster product iteration and successful online channel strategies [10][12] Paper Packaging - The paper sector is stabilizing, with net profit margins for pulp, waste paper, and specialty paper showing slight improvements. The packaging sector is experiencing stable growth, particularly in plastic and paper packaging [2][10] Personal Care - The sector is facing pressure from online competition, but offline sales remain steady. Major companies are focusing on brand and channel management to enhance profitability [2][10] New Consumption - The sector is driven by IP and AI glasses, with significant growth in emotional consumption. Companies are actively launching new products to capture market share [2][10]

公募基础设施REITs周报 2025/11/1 3 4 REITs & & REITs REITs 数据来源： Wind，国金证券研究所 2 二级市场价量表现 二级市场估值情况 市场相关性统计 一级市场跟踪 | 上市首日同 上市以来 上市以来成交量 基金代码 基金简称 行业类型 上市日期 发行价(元) | | | 本周成交量 | 上周成交 | 本周换手率 | 上周换手率 | 本周回报 | | 上周回报 今年以来回报 本周收盘价走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (12.47) | 回报 | (17.45) | | (17.49) | | | | | | | 180301.SZ 红土创新盐田港REIT 包储物流 2021/6/21 2.3 2.91% | 16.40% | 43.80 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1.75% | 1.59% | 0.53% | -0.09% | 15,79% | | 508056.SH 中金普洛斯REIT 仓储物流 2021/6/21 3.89 2.11% | 4.14% | ...

Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The urban investment bond duration strategy balances returns and defensiveness well, with cumulative excess returns for perpetual bonds, secondary bonds, and urban investment barbell combinations reaching 18.5bp, 14.7bp, and 5.1bp respectively [2][12] - Most medium to long-term strategies have shown excess returns in the past month, indicating potential profit from recent upward trends, although the likelihood of volatility corrections is higher compared to other strategies [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, the weighted average transaction durations for urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 1.98 years and 2.42 years, respectively, returning to over 80% of the high historical percentile since 2021 [3][15] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.01 years, 3.46 years, and 1.83 years, with secondary capital bonds showing a relatively high duration percentile [3][15] Group 3: Yield Heatmap - As of October 27, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties [4][17] - In the non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds, yields have generally declined, with the average drop exceeding 6bp for 2-5 year state-owned enterprise private perpetual bonds [4][18] Group 4: Science and Technology Innovation Bonds - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds reached a year-to-date high, with a total issuance scale of 699.4 billion yuan from October 20 to October 24, 2025, including 421.4 billion yuan from the exchange [5][20] - The subscription enthusiasm for new bonds has increased, with several science and technology bonds being oversubscribed by more than three times, indicating strong institutional demand for quality science and technology bonds [5][20] Group 5: Local Government Bonds - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, local government bonds issued totaled 247.2 billion yuan, including 112.4 billion yuan of new special bonds and 65.1 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [6][23] - The main investment areas for special bond funds are "special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project income," with 73 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds issued in October, accounting for 9.3% of the month's local bond issuance [6][23]