截至 2025 年 7 月 14 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 城投债： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州区县级；其余区 域中，广西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率多有小幅上行，其中 3-5 年品种调整幅 度更大。具体来看，上行幅度较大的品种的包括 3-5 年湖北省级非永续、1-2 年贵州区县级非永续、2-3 年广西地级 市非永续、3-5 年河北区县级非永续城投债等。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下；收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州地级市；其余的陕西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债中各品种收益率以上行为主。 具体来看，收益率上行幅度较大的有 3-5 年四川地级市永续、1-2 年贵州地级市非永续、3-5 年海南省级永续、2-3 年 上海区县级永续城投债，分别对应上行 6.0BP、5.8BP、5.5BP 和 5.3BP。 产业债： 民企产业债和地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非金融非地产类产业债收益率多有调整，其 中 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the controllable nuclear fusion industry, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, suggesting a focus on the expansion of capital expenditures and the associated opportunities in the power supply systems for FRC and Z-pinch devices [2]. Core Insights - The power supply is deemed the "lifeline" of controllable nuclear fusion devices, with a significant value contribution. The report highlights that the power supply systems for nuclear fusion devices require high capacity (around 100MW), high voltage (up to 1MV), and high current (up to 100kA), with low ripple (1%-2%), indicating a higher complexity compared to traditional industrial power supplies [4][18]. - The report emphasizes the expected release of multiple orders due to the expansion of capital expenditures in the controllable nuclear fusion sector, driven by the construction of Tokamak and Z-pinch devices, as well as the commercial development of FRC devices [4][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Supply as the Lifeline of Controllable Nuclear Fusion Devices - The report categorizes nuclear fusion technology into magnetic confinement, inertial confinement, and magneto-inertial confinement, with Tokamak being the mainstream approach [12][14]. - The power supply system is identified as a core component of nuclear fusion devices, with a high value contribution, particularly in Tokamak systems where the power supply accounts for approximately 15% of the total value [18][23]. Section 2: Tokamak Requires Long Pulse Operation, Core is Pulse Power Supply - The Tokamak pulse power supply consists of magnet power supply, auxiliary heating power supply, and reactive power compensation systems, which are critical for plasma formation and maintenance [27]. - The report details the technical requirements for the magnet power supply, including high current, low ripple, and fast response times, indicating significant technical barriers [30][37]. Section 3: High Value Contribution of FRC and Z-Pinch Power Supply, Focus on Core Components - The FRC device is noted for its simplicity and lower costs, with expectations for early commercialization, while the Z-pinch approach has a high value contribution from its driver components [4][21]. - The report highlights the importance of fast control switches and pulse capacitors in the power supply for both FRC and Z-pinch devices, indicating a growing market opportunity [4][21]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Specific companies are highlighted for their potential in the nuclear fusion power supply market, including Xuguang Electronics, Wangzi New Materials, Guoli Co., and others, which are positioned to benefit from the expanding demand in this sector [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 328% to 385% [3]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly 800G, is expected to drive revenue and profit growth, benefiting from increased AI computing investments [4]. - The company is positioned as a key supplier of optical modules to major North American cloud service providers, with a significant increase in the proportion of 800G and above optical modules [4]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 21.42 billion, 34.66 billion, and 47.81 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 62%, and 38% [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company anticipates a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion RMB for 1H25, with a year-on-year increase of 328% to 385% [3]. - For 2Q25, the net profit is expected to be between 2.13 billion and 2.63 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 294% to 386% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% to 67% [3]. Operational Analysis - The demand for 800G optical modules is projected to reach 18 to 22 million units globally in 2025, with major customers including Nvidia, Google, Meta, and AWS [4]. - The company is likely to benefit from potential early shipments of certain high-speed optical modules due to tariff uncertainties, further enhancing performance [4]. Outlook for 2026 - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to double year-on-year, with the company launching a single-wave 200G 1.6T optical module product [5]. - Major cloud service providers are anticipated to significantly increase their use of ASIC chips, which require more optical modules compared to GPUs, positioning the company favorably [5]. - The company has established a presence in AEC and LPO solutions, which are expected to contribute to a second growth curve and improve profit quality [5]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.42 billion, 34.66 billion, and 47.81 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 8.11, 12.47, and 14.50 RMB [5]. - The report projects P/E ratios of 16, 10, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting strong earnings growth [5].

业绩简述 2025 年 7 月 14 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，预计 2025 上半年实现收入 7.08 亿元~7.87 亿元，同比-10%~0%；归母净利润 3.04 亿元~3.61 亿元，同比-25%~-11%。 从单 Q2 情况来看，预计实现收入 3.76 亿元~4.55 亿元，同比 -12%~+6%；归母净利润 1.74 亿元~2.31 亿元，同比-21%~+6%。 经营分析 同比增速受到价格调整影响，单季度环比实现快速恢复。国内市 场由于 24 年下半年市场环境变化，公司部分产品价格及推广策略 调整，部分产品毛利率降低，短期业绩出现一定压力。但公司 Castor分支型主动脉覆膜支架、Minos腹主动脉覆膜支架、Reewarm PTX 药物球囊扩张导管等核心产品持续发力，新产品 Talos 直管型 胸主动脉覆膜支架系统及Fontus分支型术中支架系统入院家数及 终端植入量均增长较快，Q2 单季度业绩环比实现快速恢复。 研发项目顺利推进，多款产品取得关键突破。公司创新研发的全 新一代 Cratos 分支型主动脉覆膜支架系统上市并实现临床植入； Tipspear 经颈静脉肝内穿刺套件获批上 ...

2025 年上半年，美元指数创下 1973 年以来的最差表现。一季度，"美国-非美"利差因素解释了美元波动的 91%，但 二季度该因素解释力降至 33%，"去美元化"成为市场主流逻辑，引发外资逃离美元资产的担忧。市场对弱美元的共识 已达到近 20 年峰值，但这一致预期下，美元是否暗藏反转机会成为核心焦点。 表面上，"去美元化"逻辑源于特朗普关税政策和美联储独立性干扰，促使非美资金抛售美元资产。但数据揭示，外资 可能更多采用外汇衍生品对冲风险，而非真正腾挪美元底层资产。高对冲成本曾导致海外资金缺乏对冲，但 4 月以来 美元期货空头头寸大幅上升，期权市场 EURUSD 风险逆转期权价格飙升，表明对冲需求激增。这种对冲是短期行为， 与长期去美元化叙事形成期限错配，强化主观信仰的同时，也忽略了一些反转契机。 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 2025 年上半年美元持续走弱，累计下跌 10.7%也创下了 1973 年以来的最差同期表现1。一季度"美国-非美"利差能够 解释美元指数 91%的变动，但二季度这一因子的解释力度降至 33%，"去美元化"成为了市场主流逻辑。6 月美银调查 显示，市场对弱美元的共识达到近 20 年 ...

宏观流动性： 上周(20250707-20250711)美元指数有所反弹，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均上升，通 胀预期回升。海外流动性边际有所宽松，国内银行间资金面整体平衡偏松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)小幅收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回升，主要指数波动率均上升。行业上，轻工、纺服、商贸零售、计算机、建材、金融地产等板块 交易热度均处于 80%分位数以上，大多数行业的波动率均处于 40%历史分位数以下。 机构调研： 电子、医药、家电、计算机、商贸零售、有色等板块调研热度居前，房地产、家电、石油石化、通信等板块的调研热 度环比仍在上升。 两融活跃度有所回升，当前仍处于 2025 年 3 月下旬以来的高点 上周两融净买入 225.46 亿元，行业上，主要净买入有色、计算机、非银、电新、电子等板块，净卖出食品饮料、交 运、石油石化、房地产等板块。分行业看，煤炭、纺服、农林牧渔、军工、交运等板块融资买入占比上升。风格上， 两融净买入各类风格板块(大盘/中盘/小盘成长/价值)。 龙虎榜交易热度有所回落 上周(20250707-20250711)龙虎榜买卖总额有所回落，而 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 7 月 14 日，公司披露 2025 年半年度业绩预告。 业绩预告核心数据：2025 年上半年，公司归属于母公司所有者的 净亏损预计为 8.75 亿-9.75 亿元，扣非后净亏损 9.25 亿-10.25 亿元。第二季度单季净亏损 1.39 亿-2.39 亿元，同比减亏 1.02 亿-2.02 亿元；扣非后单季净亏损 1.31 亿-2.31 亿元，同比减亏 1.12 亿-2.12 亿元，亏损大幅收窄。 营业收入情况：上半年营业收入预计 35.6 亿-36.4 亿元，同比下 降 4.3%-6.4%；第二季度单季营收 21.82 亿-22.62 亿元，同比增 长 6.1%-10.0%，收入由降转升。 现金流情况：第二季度经营活动现金流净额实现净流入，同比改 善约 3.2 亿元；上半年累计同比改善约 6.0 亿元。 业绩预亏原因：业务有季节性特征，上半年收入占比低于成本费 用占比；去年合同签约下降导致一季度收入降幅大、亏损扩大； 研发资本化摊销同比增 1.2 亿元，离职补偿金增 0.3 亿元。 其他经营亮点：第二季度合同签约同比增超 18%，上半年累计增近 8%；通过改善管理控制成本，为收入 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.82%. The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds increased by 0.24% to 87.45%. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, and that of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, and that of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years [4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Fund Stock Position Calculation - The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds has shown a volatile trend recently. This week, it increased by 0.24% to 87.45%, 0.77% lower than the quarterly report. Active equity funds' position rose by 0.31% to 89.55%, and partial - equity hybrid funds' position rose by 0.23% to 86.96% [7]. - The overall increase or decrease in positions of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week was mostly concentrated in [0%, 1%] (766 funds), followed by [-1%, 0%] (171 funds). Funds with sizes below 20 billion, between 20 - 50 billion, and 50 - 80 billion slightly increased their positions, while other - sized funds slightly reduced their positions [11]. - In terms of fund holding styles, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion in fund holdings. This week, value stocks were slightly reduced, and growth stocks were slightly increased. The proportion of small - cap stocks in fund holdings was relatively high. This week, large - cap and mid - cap stocks were slightly increased, and small - cap stocks were slightly reduced [15]. - The top 5 industries held by active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week were electronics (13.65%), power equipment (8.70%), pharmaceutical biology (7.16%), automobiles (6.54%), and machinery (5.37%). The top 3 industries with increased positions were communication (+0.36%), building materials (+0.20%), and non - ferrous metals (+0.12%); the top 3 industries with reduced positions were comprehensive (-0.21%), national defense and military industry (-0.19%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [18]. 2.2 Bond Fund Duration Calculation - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 3bps. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, at the 99.40% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 3.26 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.69 years. The median duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, with 7% of actively operated funds and 24% of conservatively operated funds; the median duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, with 55% of actively operated funds and 4% of conservatively operated funds [21]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, at the 100.00% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 2.78 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.06 to 1.25 years. The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, at the 99.20% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 5.00 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.84 years [23]. - This week, the estimated duration of credit bond funds was concentrated in [2.5, 3) (167 funds), followed by [3, 3.5) (126 funds). The estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in [5,) (159 funds), followed by [4.5, 5) (54 funds) [28]. - Among credit bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations (above the 80% percentile of their own duration in the past year) this week was 6.62%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations (below the 20% percentile of their own duration in the past year) was 24.39%. Among interest - rate bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations was 55.17%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations was 4.02% [29]. - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 1 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 5bps. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years, at the 99.70% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 1.16 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.11 to 0.48 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds decreased by 0.12 to 3.65 years [33].

点评 扫码获取更多服务 根据 IDC 数据，2025 年二季度全球 PC 设备销量同比继续提升 6.5%达到约 6800 万台，美国地区销量约为 1900 万台， 同比增长 0.1%。其中苹果二季度表现最好，全球出货量约 620 万台，同比增长 21.4%，在美国地区销量约为 280 万， 同比增长 22.2%。 我们认为苹果 Mac 系列在二季度的表现不管在全球还是美国，增速都超出了笔电整体增速。虽然美国关税法案尚未落 地，消费者对苹果消费电子产品是否会在未来涨价心存疑虑，但即便扣除美国销量，全球与美国销量增速维持在 20% 左右。因此我们认为苹果二季度 Mac 系列表现良好的原因与关税政策未定有一定关系，但更多的是关税政策之外的原 因：1.居家办公/学习时期购买的 PC 设备即将迎来换机周期；2.2025 年苹果 Macbook 学生优惠政策/AI PC 推动等等 因素。 关税政策将确实影响苹果消费电子产品。美国关税法案对日本/韩国征收 25%关税，中国台湾地区关税政策尚不明朗， 在不会低于 25%的情况下，我们认为 Mac 系列产品的成本相较于原本 10%的关税都将提升至少 15%，苹果未来如何转 嫁成 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.07.07-2025.07.13）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2759.14 点(周环比+1.09%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4014.81 点（周环比+0.82%），深证综指收于 2116.93 点（周环比+1.99%），上证综指收于 3510.18 点（周环比+1.09%），科 创板收于 994.45 点（周环比+0.98%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 129.03 公斤/头，行业整体均重有所反复，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.11%至 16.78%，主要系需 求偏弱导致屠宰场被动入库，在散户出栏积极性略有提升的背景下，生猪价格小幅调整。近期集团场第一阶段降重放 缓，但是由于天气炎热，整体压栏程度较此前放松；此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续加强环保管理，部分母 猪场因环保因素开始整顿。当下猪价表现下成本领先的头部养殖企业生猪盈利超 200 元/头，预计头部企业在上半年 有望实现较好盈利，而在供给压力持续后移的背景下，下半年猪价或存在一定压力，若行业产能有序调控，中期行业 盈利中枢有望提升。目前生猪价格表现强于此前市场预期使得整 ...