Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electronic fabric and copper foil sectors, highlighting their strong performance and market leadership in the AI industry chain [2][13]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that two leading companies in electronic fabric and copper foil have exceeded expectations in their mid-year reports, driven by AI contributions, continuous improvement in core businesses, and strong market share positions [2][13]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the African building materials market, particularly for local manufacturing companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from high demand and favorable local recognition [14]. - The advancements in quantum computing are noted, with significant developments from IBM and Tsinghua University, indicating a growing interest and potential in this field [15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Two leading companies in electronic fabric and copper foil have reported better-than-expected results, with AI contributing to profits and core businesses improving [2][13]. - Keda Manufacturing is highlighted as a leader in local production in Africa, benefiting from high demand and local support [14]. - Quantum computing advancements are being made, with IBM's roadmap and Tsinghua University's research indicating significant progress [15]. Market Performance - The building materials index showed a performance increase of 5.27%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass performing particularly well [20]. - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing a slight price increase, with an average price of 343 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2 RMB increase from the previous period [17][28]. Price Changes in Building Materials - The report indicates that the national average price for cement has increased by 0.7%, with specific regions seeing price increases of 10-30 RMB per ton [28]. - The average price for float glass has decreased to 1205.78 RMB per ton, reflecting a decline of 2.42% [17][36]. Industry Trends - The report identifies a sustained high demand for AI materials, particularly in specialized fiberglass and high-grade copper foil, with expectations for continued growth in these areas [18]. - Traditional building material companies are accelerating their business transformations, with notable acquisitions and investments in AI-related fields [16].

Economic Indicators - The China Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) for August is 47.8, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment[4] - The production price index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weak overall factory prices despite a significant year-on-year improvement due to lower technical levels last year[6] Financial Data - From January to July, the real sector received approximately 19 trillion yuan in funding, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by fiscal fund disbursements[10] - New deposits from residents amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 720 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits[10] Market Trends - In the wake of new housing policies in Beijing, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, with second-hand housing sales showing a positive year-on-year growth[17] - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered deposit rates, with rates for various terms adjusted down by 10 to 20 basis points[14] Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments pose risks of export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Changes in global geopolitical situations and international market fluctuations may continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Tianjin Summit is the largest since the organization's inception, with over 20 foreign leaders attending, including Russia's President Putin and India's Prime Minister Modi[2] - The SCO has become a fundamental aspect of China's foreign diplomacy, especially as member countries face increasing pressure from the U.S., with tariffs exceeding 25% imposed on several SCO nations[2][3] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - In 2024, trade between China and SCO member countries reached $512.4 billion, accounting for approximately 8.3% of China's total foreign trade, indicating strong economic ties[19] - China is the largest trading partner for several SCO countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan, which are also key suppliers of energy resources, enhancing China's energy security[19] Group 3: Summit Agenda - The Tianjin Summit will focus on four main topics: internationalization of the Renminbi, cooperation in machinery manufacturing, resource product collaboration, and emerging industry partnerships[3][20] - The summit aims to strengthen the complementary relationship between resource supply and industrial demand, while also exploring new opportunities in digital economy and green development[20][21]

Core Insights - The report evaluates whether the bond market has fallen out of a safety margin due to high risk appetite and significant changes in the relative performance of major asset classes [2][7] - The analysis is conducted from both internal interest rate assessments and cross-asset pricing perspectives [7] Internal Interest Rate Assessment - The policy interest rate provides a "safety margin" with the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repo rate spread rising to 38 basis points, close to the year’s high [8][9] - The yield curve shows a steepening characteristic in the short term, while remaining relatively flat in the long term, with most spreads above the 70th percentile for the year [12][13] - The downward movement of bond yields aligns with other interest rates, with a central tendency of around 70 basis points for various rates since 2024 [14] Cross-Asset Pricing Assessment - The bond-stock pricing ratio is reverting towards the 3-year average, indicating a recovery in bond allocation value [21] - The current 10-year government bond yield is at the 13th percentile, while commodity prices are mostly between the 0-20th percentiles, suggesting a close pricing match [23] - Compared to high-stickiness asset prices, bonds have fallen out of a certain safety margin, as real estate and durable goods prices are near their lowest points since 2021 [23] - The bond-loan pricing ratio has shown some recovery, with the 5-year government bond yield returning to a central channel level [24] - The comparison with rental yields has slightly improved, with the 30-year government bond yield recovering to a positive spread over urban residential rental yields [31] Overall Conclusion - The bond pricing has shown a degree of recovery, particularly in the year-to-date perspective, with several pricing indicators returning to their yearly highs. However, market sentiment remains weak, and technical signals indicate a bearish trend, suggesting that buying opportunities may require patience until market sentiment fully releases [33]

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio continues to show negative returns, with the medium and short-term credit style portfolio experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to the corresponding interest rate style portfolio, while the long-term portfolio has seen significant declines [2][14] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the weekly returns for the deposit sinking and deposit bullet strategies were both -0.25%, while in the credit style portfolio, these strategies had smaller drawdowns with returns of -0.14% each [2][14] - The credit style deposit-heavy portfolio's weekly average return slightly rebounded to -0.14%, outperforming the corresponding interest rate style portfolio by 10.7 basis points, marking the strongest defensive strategy since late July [2][17] Group 2 - The credit strategy has created a certain yield space, with the secondary bond duration strategy's yield distance from the year's low exceeding 20 basis points [3][26] - The main strategy combinations have seen yields stop falling and start to rise, with the secondary bond duration strategy's weekly yield increasing by nearly 0.16 basis points, bringing the annualized yield to 2.02%, which is 22.3 basis points wider from the year's low [3][26] - The weekly yield contribution from the credit style portfolio remains in the range of -25% to -5%, with capital gains continuing to drag down returns [3][26] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, the medium and short-term perpetual bond heavy strategies have shown certain defensive attributes, with cumulative excess returns for the city investment short-term sinking, commercial bank bullet, and perpetual bond sinking strategies reaching 13.3 basis points, 7.2 basis points, and 6.6 basis points respectively [4][32] - The city investment heavy strategies have recently underperformed compared to the secondary perpetual heavy strategies, with the cumulative returns for the city investment duration and barbell strategies deviating from the benchmark by -10 basis points and -30 basis points respectively [4][32] - The short-end strategies have outperformed the benchmark, while the city investment sinking strategy's excess returns have fallen into negative territory [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding, Hainan Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to their strong performance and market positioning [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing significant growth, with SF Express leading the way with a 34% increase in business volume in July. The overall express delivery market is expected to see price increases due to rising costs in grain-producing areas and the upcoming peak season [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. launching AI and robotics research initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - The aviation sector shows a positive trend, with domestic flights increasing by 3.07% year-on-year. Airlines are expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization, leading to potential fare increases and profit elasticity [4]. - The shipping sector is witnessing a recovery in oil transportation indices, with expectations of increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran and India [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with highway truck traffic increasing by 3.06% week-on-week, indicating a robust logistics environment [6][78]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth of 34%, leading the industry. The total express delivery volume for the week of August 11-17 was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [2]. - The market shares for major players in July 2025 are as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Yunda (13.2%), YTO (15.8%), and Shentong (13.3%) [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index is at 4024 points, down 10.3% year-on-year. The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 RMB/ton, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is focusing on AI and robotics to enhance logistics efficiency, indicating a shift towards smart logistics solutions [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased to 17,321 flights, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%. Domestic flights saw a 3.07% increase, while international flights increased by 11.87% compared to 2019 [4]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $67.73/barrel, reflecting a 2.85% increase week-on-week, which may impact airline operational costs [4][65]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, down 1.5% week-on-week and down 40.5% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% week-on-week and down 52.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1019 points, reflecting a 0.5% increase week-on-week and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Road and Rail - The national railway passenger volume in July was 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The railway freight volume was 452 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year [78]. - The national highway freight traffic for the week of August 11-17 was 54.93 million vehicles, a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [6][82].

本期微观交易温度计读数继续回落 4 个百分点至 46% 其中基金久期、配置盘力度、政策利差回落幅度分别达到 31、33、34 个百分点，其余多数指标也不同程度回落，仅 1/10Y 国债换手率、基金-农商买入量分位值上升。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、长期国债成交占 比。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量降至 25% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量下降至 5 个（占比 25%）、位于中性区间的指标数降至 5 个（占比 25%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量升至 10 个（占比 50%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 国债换手率由偏冷区间升 至中性区间，基金久期、政策利差均由中性区间降至偏冷区间，配置盘力度由过热区间降至偏冷区间。 仅交易热度分位均值小幅上升 2 个百分点 风险提示 分类别来看，①交易热度中，TL/T 多空比、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值均回落，不过 1/10Y 国债换手率分位值上 升 37 个百分点，交易热度分位均值上升 2 个百分点。②除基金-农商买入量分位值上升 10 个百分点外，其余指标分 位值均不同程度回落，带动机构行为分位均值下降 8 个百分点。③市 ...

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周 AI 应用中，海外 Claude 活跃度周均环比大幅提升，Gemini 与 ChatGPT 保持平稳；国内豆包持续上升，通 义止跌回稳。模型层面，深度求索于 8 月 21 日发布 DeepSeek-V3.1，引入混合推理架构，优化了智能体任务表 现并提升了思考效率，其 API 同步升级并开源了 Base 模型。该模型采用的 UE8M0 FP8 格式专为适配下一代国产 芯片设计，标志着国内 AI 软硬件协同进入新阶段。此外，一个性能强大的神秘模型"nano-banana"现身，社区 普遍猜测其为 Google 尚未发布的新品。 - 三星 HBM4 预计 11–12 月量产，缩小与 SK 海力士差距；SK 海力士已于 6 月实现初步量产并计划 10 月量产。三 星 HBM3E 本月底通过质测后将供货，并以大幅折扣抢市。美光亦已交付 HBM4 样品，2026 年产能基本售罄。 NVIDIA 则布局自研 HBM 基底芯片，寻求更强议价能力。整体看，HBM 市场进入技术升级与价格战并存阶段，格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the virtual assets sector, particularly following the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which has led to a rebound in virtual assets [1][3]. Core Insights - The enthusiasm for the revaluation of Chinese assets continues, with expectations of increased liquidity and valuation uplift for Chinese stocks, particularly in the context of upcoming earnings reports [3][16]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the gaming sector, projecting the Chinese gaming market to reach 29.1 billion yuan by July 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.14% and a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trends in blockchain and virtual assets, suggesting that institutions in Greater China will actively seek related investments in Hong Kong stocks [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Education Sector - The education index increased by 1.83%, underperforming compared to major indices like the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 [12]. - Key players such as New Oriental and TAL Education saw declines of 1.86% and 4.98%, respectively, indicating competitive pressures in the K12 education sector [12][19]. 2. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index rose by 3.82%, with notable performances from high-end brands like Hermes and Richemont [19]. - The report notes a significant decline in new store openings in the luxury sector, particularly in non-first-tier cities, which saw a 48% drop [26]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains robust, with a notable increase in consumer demand, while the tea drink segment faces increased competition [5][25]. - The report highlights the performance of various coffee brands, with Luckin Coffee opening new stores and expanding its market presence [30]. 4. E-commerce - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index showed a slight increase of 0.29%, with Pinduoduo and Dingdong Maicai leading in stock performance [31]. - Alibaba has restructured its business into four main divisions, aiming to enhance operational efficiency [35]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The report indicates a slight decline in the media index, with a focus on improving content supply for long-video platforms [32][40]. - The performance of major streaming services like iQIYI and Tencent Music varied, with iQIYI reporting a revenue decline of 11% [41]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $412.39 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations [42]. - The report suggests a positive trend for virtual assets, with institutions increasingly entering the market [3][42]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a continued decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate market [36]. 8. Automotive Services - The report notes a rise in losses among automotive dealers, with a 52.6% loss ratio reported for the first half of the year [5]. 9. Media and Entertainment - The report highlights the implementation of new policies aimed at enriching content supply for television platforms, which may improve the industry's outlook [40]. 10. Overall Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and the performance of key sectors, particularly in light of macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes [3][5].

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 23 日，公司披露 2025 年度中期业绩：公司 2025 年 上半年实现营收 24.3 亿元，同比下滑 14.4%，毛利润同比下滑 16.6%，主要系金融机构 IT 整体预算收紧导致客户需求减少、市 场竞争加剧、以及公司战略收缩部分非核心业务。公司 2025 年上 半年实现扣非后归母净利润 1.9 亿元，同比增长 41.9%。现金流 方面，公司销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金同比下滑 5.5%，表现 好于营收降幅；整体经营活动现金净流出较上年同期缩窄 23.4%， 主要系支付给职工的现金较上年同期减少。 2025 年第二季度，公司营业收入为 14.0 亿元，同比下滑 15.0%， 毛利润同比下滑 15.0%；扣非后归母净利润为 1.8 亿元，同比增 长 59.8%。 经营分析 分业务而言，上半年表现最好的业务为企金、保险核心与基础设施 IT 产品线，表观营收同比增长 4.9%，毛利率较上年同期增长 17.4pct，因而毛利润同比增长 77.8%。上半年资管科技、风险与 平台科技服务业绩压力相对较大，毛利润分别同比下滑 34.8%、 下滑 49.1%。 净利润方面，公司 2025 ...