Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the returns of the simulated portfolios generally declined, with the credit - style portfolio returns mostly higher than the interest - rate style. The investment in Pu - xin bonds (普信债) was advantageous, and the capital gains of the urban investment bond heavy - position strategy contributed significantly to the returns [2][3]. - In the past four weeks, the urban investment bond duration strategy balanced returns and defensiveness well. The excess returns of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term strategies were significantly compressed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Combination Strategy Return Tracking - **Combination Weekly Return Overview**: As of October 24, the cumulative returns of the interest - rate style and credit - style portfolios this year have been continuously lagging behind the same period in the past two years. Among the main credit - style portfolios, the urban investment short - end sinking, urban investment bullet - type, and certificate of deposit bullet - type portfolios had leading cumulative comprehensive returns of 1.26%, 0.86%, and 0.84% respectively. This week, the returns of the simulated portfolios generally declined, with the credit - style portfolio returns mostly higher than the interest - rate style. In the interest - rate style portfolio, the urban investment ultra - long - type and industrial ultra - long - type strategies had smaller drawdowns, with weekly returns of - 0.03% and - 0.04% respectively. In the credit - style portfolio, the urban investment ultra - long - type and industrial ultra - long - type strategies led in returns, reaching 0.41% and 0.4% respectively. The Pu - xin bond heavy - position strategy was advantageous [10][14][15]. - **Combination Weekly Return Source**: The coupon of various strategy portfolios continued to decline, while the capital gains of the urban investment bond heavy - position strategy contributed significantly. Among the mainstream credit - style strategies, the weekly coupon decline of the second - tier bond bullet - type and duration portfolios exceeded 0.13bp, while the annualized coupons of the urban investment bond duration and dumbbell - type strategies remained above 2.19%, exceeding the readings of portfolios such as perpetual bond duration and securities firm bond sinking. This week, the divergence in return sources was relatively large, and the coupon contribution of the credit - style portfolio generally fell within the range of 10% - 70%, with the readings of the urban investment bond heavy - position strategy mostly below 40%, indicating rich capital gains [3][25]. 3.2 Credit Strategy Excess Return Tracking - In the past four weeks, the urban investment bond duration strategy balanced returns and defensiveness well. Except for the commercial financial bond bullet - type portfolio, the other medium - long - term strategies had certain excess returns in the past month. The cumulative excess returns of the perpetual bond duration, second - tier bond duration, and urban investment dumbbell - type portfolios reached 18.5bp, 14.7bp, and 5.1bp respectively. However, the possibility of volatility and correction was greater than that of other strategies. Among the low - volatility portfolios, the urban investment bond duration strategy with leading returns was worth attention [4][29]. - In terms of strategy duration, the excess returns of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term strategies were significantly compressed. In the short - term, the certificate of deposit strategy showed a negative deviation from the benchmark for four consecutive weeks, while the excess return of the urban investment sinking strategy gradually expanded. Except for the securities firm bond sinking, urban investment duration, and dumbbell - type portfolios, the excess returns of the other medium - long - term strategies were negative. The ultra - long - term strategy performance was divergent, with the urban investment and industrial ultra - long - type strategies having small excess returns, while the reading of the second - tier ultra - long - type strategy dropped to - 25.6bp, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period [4][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Long - term: Multiple policy goals and strategic directions in the announcement will have a profound impact on the medium - and long - term interest rate center. Maintaining a relatively stable manufacturing proportion can reduce the downward traction on the interest rate center, and the growth of total factor productivity brought by technological innovation can hedge the decline of the demographic dividend [5][28] - Short - term: The implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" has a positive reaction on risk assets, suppressing the bond market on the emotional level. The previous rebound of the bond market may be coming to an end, and it is advisable to consider phased defense after the market sentiment returns to the neutral range [6][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Thinking: Interest Rate Trends from the "15th Five - Year Plan" Direction Question 1: Impact of "Manufacturing Proportion" on the Medium - and Long - Term Interest Rate Center - There is a positive correlation between manufacturing proportion and the long - term interest rate center, which is reflected in both domestic and overseas markets. In China, from 2006 - 2013, the manufacturing proportion was stable above 30%, and the interest rate showed a box - shaped shock. After 2013, the manufacturing proportion declined, and the interest rate trended downward. Overseas, similar relationships can be observed in the data of the US, Japan, India, and Thailand [2][8][9] - The reasons for the correlation include changes in capital demand, productivity growth rate, and the balance of savings and investment. A decline in the manufacturing proportion may lead to a slowdown in capital demand, a slowdown in productivity growth, and an imbalance in savings and investment [3][9] - According to historical data regression, for every 1 - percentage - point decrease in the manufacturing proportion, the interest rate center in China, Japan, and the US will decline by about 20, 50 - 60, and 50 - 100 basis points respectively. If the manufacturing proportion remains stable during the "15th Five - Year Plan", the downward traction on the interest rate may weaken [18] Question 2: Impact of the Development of the Technology Industry on the Interest Rate Center - The development of the technology industry generally has an upward - pushing effect on the interest rate center. Using the "proportion of high - tech exports in the total value of manufactured goods exports" as a proxy variable, a positive correlation can be found between the high - tech product export proportion and the interest rate center in China, the US, and Japan. The development of the technology industry can improve total factor productivity, hedge the demographic dividend, and promote the potential economic growth rate [4][22] Question 3: Implicit Growth Target of the 2035 Vision Plan - Given that the per - capita GDP in 2024 was $13,400, assuming an average nominal growth rate of 5%, 5.5%, or 6% by 2035, the per - capita GDP will reach $23,000, $24,000, and $25,000 respectively, meeting the "medium - developed country level". It is speculated that the target growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" may be set at around 5% [5][25] 3.2 Transaction Review: Upward Shift of the Yield Curve - **Funding Situation**: The central bank made a small - scale net injection of funds this week, with a total net injection of 78.1 billion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation next Monday, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan after the maturity of 700 billion yuan of MLF. The funding situation remained stable, with the operating centers of DR001, DR007, and DR014 moving slightly or significantly upward [29] - **Yield Curve**: The yields of treasury bonds of all maturities increased this week. The 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3bp and 2bp to 1.47% and 1.85% respectively, and the 10 - 1 term spread remained basically flat at 38bp. The bond market trend was "up - and - down", affected by various factors such as Sino - US talks, market easing expectations, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [35] - **Duration and Indicator Signals**: From October 20th to 24th, the median duration of public funds continued to rise slightly to 2.76 years, and the duration divergence index rose slightly to 0.57. Among the ten interest rate synchronization indicators this week, "positive" and "negative" signals each accounted for 5/10, and the copper - gold ratio sent a "negative" signal [41][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-sufficient industries [4][29]. Core Insights - Strong demand for AI continues to drive significant growth in the industry, with many companies expected to exceed Q3 earnings forecasts due to robust orders from major AI clients [1][4]. - The AI server and related hardware markets are anticipated to see accelerated growth, with Nvidia's AI server shipments expected to increase in Q4 [1][4]. - The report highlights the ongoing price increases in storage chips and the strong demand for AI-related products, indicating a favorable market environment for companies involved in these sectors [1][4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - AI demand remains robust, with companies like Shengyi Technology reporting Q3 revenues of 2.84-3.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135-170% [1]. - TSMC is optimistic about AI demand, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 45% for AI revenue from 2024 to 2029 [1]. 2. Subsector Insights 2.1 Consumer Electronics - Apple has launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AI-related devices, which are expected to drive demand in the consumer electronics sector [5][6]. - The report anticipates a surge in end-side AI applications, particularly in smart devices and home automation [5]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, particularly driven by automotive and industrial applications, with price increases noted for raw materials [7][29]. - The overall PCB market is expected to maintain a high level of activity, supported by AI growth and policy incentives [7]. 2.3 Components - The report notes that AI applications are increasing the demand for passive components, particularly in mobile devices [22]. - The LCD panel market is stabilizing, with effective production control measures in place [23]. 2.4 IC Design - The storage sector is projected to see price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [24][25]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment - The report emphasizes the trend of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers benefiting from the push for self-sufficiency amid geopolitical tensions [26][31]. - Companies like North Huachuang are expected to gain market share as domestic production ramps up [31]. 3. Key Companies - Companies such as Shengyi Technology, North Huachuang, and Jiangfeng Electronics are highlighted as key players benefiting from the AI and semiconductor trends [29][31][33]. - The report suggests that these companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-related products and services [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [71]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 1.36% [13][14]. - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the industry currently facing losses, and anticipates further price declines in the short term [3][20]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, particularly for yellow-feathered chickens, while white-feathered chickens continue to face price pressures [4][34]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, despite ongoing losses in the dairy sector [5][39]. - The planting industry is experiencing short-term supply pressures, but there is potential for improvement if grain production decreases significantly [6][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing positive price trends for certain species [58]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2889.08 points, down 1.36% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - National pig prices are at 11.82 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.82%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.90 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [20][21]. - The industry is expected to continue facing losses, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, showing slight increases, while profits for parent stock chickens have improved [32][34]. - The report suggests that if consumer demand recovers, poultry prices may rebound [34]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.12 yuan/kg, with expectations for price increases as the consumption season approaches [5][39]. - The dairy sector is under pressure, but there are signs of potential recovery in raw milk prices next year [5][39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2174.29 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop releases and external uncertainties [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring grain prices and potential production declines [46]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with specific fish prices showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and certain fish species [58][63].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative models such as iFlytek, AI hardware as a new carrier for application implementation, and companies like Hikvision, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI applications and technologies, with expectations for improved operational strength in Q3 and further growth in Q4, driven by new technology implementations and enhanced operational quality [9][10] - The AI industry chain is expected to remain a major focus, with notable progress in AI applications compared to previous years, indicating a potential for exponential growth in the second half of the year [9] - The report identifies high-growth sectors within the industry, including AI computing power and lidar, while also noting stable growth in software outsourcing and financial IT [10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The report discusses the release of new AI models and tools, such as DeepSeek-OCR and KAT-Coder, which enhance capabilities in text processing and AI programming [9] - It emphasizes the importance of AI in various sectors, including finance and software, with expectations for increased investment and development [10] 2. Market Performance - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the computer industry index rose by 3.58%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points [11] 3. Sector Insights - The report categorizes various sectors based on their growth potential, with AI computing power and lidar maintaining high growth, while sectors like industrial software face some pressure [10] - It notes that the software export market has significant potential, with emerging brands gaining traction [10] 4. Upcoming Events - The report highlights key upcoming events, including the 10th China International Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 27th China International High-tech Achievements Fair, which are expected to present opportunities within the industry [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the wind energy sector, including Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy, based on their competitive advantages and expected market share growth [9][12]. Core Insights - The report outlines China's strategic tasks in the energy sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing a green transition driven by dual carbon goals, including specific measures such as carbon emission control, industrial decarbonization, and the development of renewable energy [6][13]. - The wind energy sector is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with a target of no less than 120GW of new installations annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including at least 15GW from offshore wind [7][5]. - Hydrogen energy has been recognized as a key future industry, with strong policy support anticipated to accelerate its industrialization and commercialization, positioning it as a new growth driver [13][15]. Wind Energy - The "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0" has revised the market's expectations for wind power installations, indicating a slowdown in the trend of larger wind turbines, with a focus on products that meet market demands for power trading [7][8]. - Goldwind's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 25.4% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 170.6% [9]. - The competitive landscape in the wind turbine sector is expected to undergo a "value reshaping" as companies adapt to market conditions and enhance product offerings [7][8]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Hydrogen energy has been elevated to a national strategic level, with policies expected to support its rapid development and integration into various sectors [13][15]. - The report highlights the acceleration of green hydrogen projects and the rising demand for fuel cell vehicles, indicating a significant market opportunity [14][15]. - The establishment of a complete commercial model for green hydrogen in shipping is seen as a breakthrough that could lead to broader applications in other industries [15][16]. Photovoltaics and Energy Storage - The introduction of new measures in Henan Province is expected to enhance the profitability of independent energy storage projects, confirming the report's previous assertions about the growing demand for large-scale energy storage [17][18]. - The export of photovoltaic components remains strong, with a notable increase in shipments to emerging markets, indicating sustained demand [19][20]. - The report suggests a bottom-up investment approach in the solar and storage sectors, focusing on leading companies and innovative technologies [20]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a surge in demand, with some negative electrode manufacturers raising prices due to increased production capacity utilization [21][24]. - A significant breakthrough in solid-state battery technology has been achieved by XINWANDA, with a new polymer solid-state battery reaching an energy density of 400Wh/kg [26][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly for enhancing sustainability and competitive advantage [22].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the risks in the market have been alleviated, particularly regarding the U.S. service sector and regional bank concerns, which have contributed to a more stable investment environment [2][10][25] - The U.S. October PMI data showed service PMI at 55.2% and manufacturing PMI at 52.2%, both exceeding market expectations, which alleviated recession fears [10][25] - The TMT sector has seen a shift in trading logic, expanding beyond AI infrastructure to include domestic computing power and consumer electronics, indicating a rebalancing of investment styles [3][13][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for global manufacturing recovery, which is expected to drive physical consumption expansion and create investment opportunities in key resources like copper and lithium [25][27] - China's position as a "seller of shovels" in the global manufacturing landscape is emphasized, particularly in the power sector, where it has advantages in renewable energy equipment exports [25][27] - The report suggests that the combination of effective markets and proactive government policies will be crucial for navigating deflationary pressures and stabilizing domestic prices [44][45] Group 3 - The report outlines a shift in investment focus towards physical assets, particularly in the context of a potential interest rate cut cycle, which could enhance manufacturing activity and resource demand [4][56] - The recommended investment sequence includes upstream resources and capital goods, reflecting China's role in the global supply chain and the expected recovery in domestic consumption [4][56] - The report notes that the market is currently in a phase of seeking new opportunities as risks have subsided, with a focus on sectors that show signs of recovery and growth potential [53][54]

本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比仍为 15% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量仍为 3 个（占比 15%）、位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 4 个（占比 20%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 13 个（占比 65%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 国债换手率由偏冷区间 升至过热区间；基金-农商买入量则由过热区间降至偏冷区间。 交易热度分位均值大幅上升 ①交易热度中，30/10Y 国债换手率、1/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别大幅回升 24、86 个百分点，TL/T 多空比分位值也 上升 13 个百分点，带动交易热度分位均值上升 21 个百分点。②基金分歧度、基金-农商买入量分位值分别下降 14、 10 个百分点，机构行为分位均值回落 2 个百分点。③市场利差上升 8 个百分点、政策利差下降 5 个百分点，利差分位 均值小幅回升 1 个百分点。④股债、不动产比价分位值均下降 10 个百分点，比价分位均值回落 5 个百分点。 本期微观交易温度计读数回升至 34% 本期 1Y、30Y 国债换手率上升，10Y 国债换手率下降，因此 30/10Y 国债换手率、1/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别大幅回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report conducts a preliminary exploration of the pricing rules of secondary and perpetual bonds (referred to as "two - perpetual bonds") issued by state - owned large - scale banks and their association with institutional behaviors. It analyzes the influence of the new VAT regulation on the pricing of new and old bonds, the pricing rules in the primary and secondary markets, and potential trading opportunities [2][11]. Group 1: Bank Sub - debt Subtle Clues - The new VAT regulation took effect on August 8th, dividing the interest income of bonds into taxable and tax - exempt based on the issuance time. To make the after - tax yields of new and old bonds of the same variety with similar remaining maturities and issued by the same entity equal, the coupon rate of new bonds should be higher than that of old bonds. For general financial institutions, the pre - tax yield ratio of new and old bonds should be around 1.068; for asset management institutions, this ratio is 1.034 [2][11]. - After August 8th, three new two - perpetual bonds were issued by large - scale banks. The ratio of the coupon rate to the issuance - day valuation of 5 + 5 - year and 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds is 1.035 and 1.071 respectively, indicating that the 10 + 5 - year variety contains more tax cost compensation. The difference between the coupon rate and the valuation of 5 + N - year bank perpetual bonds is only 0.01bp, showing that the tax cost compensation in the pricing of perpetual bonds is not significant [2][15]. - The pricing of new two - perpetual bonds is related to the subscription power of institutions participating in the primary market. For 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds, large - scale and city commercial banks' self - operations are net sellers on the first active trading day, while joint - stock banks, funds, and other product categories are net buyers. For 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds, city commercial banks, joint - stock banks, and securities self - operations are net sellers, and insurance, funds, and other product categories are net buyers. For bank perpetual bonds, large - scale, joint - stock, city commercial, and rural commercial banks are net sellers, and other product categories, funds, and insurance are net buyers [18][24][32]. Group 2: Review of Two - perpetual Bond Pricing Rules - The pricing logic of new bonds in the cash market is dominated by trading desks. For 5 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds is generally between 1.03 and 1.04 and shows an upward trend. The slow decline in the valuation of new bonds is due to the immature pricing mechanism after the implementation of the new VAT regulation, which makes investors prefer old bonds [4][42]. - For 10 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds is concentrated between 1.028 and 1.038 and has decreased significantly compared to the initial listing. After the holiday, the ratio has rebounded, affected by the lower liquidity of new bonds and the increased profit - taking by bank self - operations. The continuous buying by insurance indicates that ultra - long - term secondary bonds still need to stabilize [4][48]. - For large - scale bank perpetual bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds fluctuates between 1.015 and 1.022. It is lower than that of secondary capital bonds because the trading volume of bank self - operations and other institutions is relatively small, and the liquidity of perpetual bonds is poor. When funds net - buy new perpetual bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds increases; when the selling volume of funds increases, the yield ratio decreases, indicating that new perpetual bonds have better defensive properties [5][55]. Group 3: Some Thoughts on Trading Opportunities - The yield of 5 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds fluctuates around the spread range of 10 - year treasury bonds. When the yield breaks through the upper limit of 10 - year treasury bonds + 30bp, the probability of a subsequent rebound increases; when it breaks through the lower limit of treasury bonds + 20bp, the probability of a subsequent correction rises. However, the new bonds issued after August 8th may be affected by the VAT on interest income, which may interfere with the effectiveness of the signal [64]. - One way to deal with new bonds is to convert the yield of new secondary capital bonds through the yield ratio of comparable new and old bonds, but its effectiveness is difficult to verify. Another way is to construct a new rotation signal using new 5 - year secondary capital bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds. The new bond combination will indicate an oversold rebound later and an over - bought defense earlier compared to the initial signal. Institutions with a lower VAT rate can obtain excess tax compensation by investing in new bonds with higher tax compensation [68].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery equipment sector, with specific recommendations for stocks such as XCMG, Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and YTO Group [10]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment index rose by 4.71% in the last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 3.24% [13][15]. - Year-to-date, the machinery equipment index has increased by 35.02%, ranking fifth among 31 primary industry categories [15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in engineering machinery exports, with a total of $43.855 billion from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [4][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth in quantum computing and controllable nuclear fusion as new economic growth points, supported by top-level policy and funding [4][23]. - Tesla's humanoid robot production plans are seen as a strategic opportunity for the robotics sector, with expectations for significant commercialization by 2026 [4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 4.71% last week, ranking fourth among 31 primary industry categories [13][15]. - Year-to-date performance shows a 35.02% increase in the SW Machinery Equipment Index, compared to an 18.44% increase in the CSI 300 Index [15]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8% in September, indicating contraction [22]. - Forklift sales in September reached 130,380 units, a year-on-year increase of 23% [22]. Engineering Machinery - In September, total excavator sales reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with both domestic and international sales showing strong growth [31]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment in railways maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [42]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is seeing a slowdown in price declines, with the global new ship price index at 185.58 as of September 2025 [44]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with an increase in global rig counts and expected growth in oil and gas extraction demand [46]. Industrial Gases - A decrease in raw material prices is expected to improve profitability in the steel sector, which may boost demand for industrial gases [50]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders in the first three quarters of 2025 [52].