Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PCB upstream new materials, particularly in the fields of electronic cloth and copper foil [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the shift in Nvidia's GB200NVLink design to high-layer, high-frequency low-dielectric PCBs, which is expected to catalyze demand for upstream new materials in AI applications [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing price increases in the waterproof industry, with major companies like Keshun and Dongfang Yuhong announcing price hikes, reflecting a consensus among industry leaders to combat excessive competition [3][15]. - The report notes the potential for local manufacturing growth in Africa, particularly through companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is integrating into local economies by producing tiles and sanitary ware [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The report continues to explore the potential of PCB upstream new materials, focusing on electronic cloth and copper foil, with a significant gap in expectations for high-end copper foil materials [2][14]. 2. Industry Price Changes - The report details the recent price adjustments in the waterproof sector, with companies implementing price increases ranging from 2% to 13% across various product categories [3][15]. - It also provides insights into the cement sector, noting a national average price of 349 RMB/t, a year-on-year decrease of 41 RMB, and an average shipment rate of 43.2% [5][17]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the construction materials index increased by 3.91% this week, with notable performances in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [23][27]. - It highlights the average price of float glass at 1201.02 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous week [5][17]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The report discusses the government's initiatives to boost consumption, including the organization of new energy vehicle promotions and the issuance of funds for trade-in programs [6][18]. 5. Important Changes - The report notes significant developments, including the central government's emphasis on regulating low-price competition and the announcement of price adjustments by leading waterproof companies [7][22].

全球制造或将复苏：实物需求的新一轮上升周期 过去的几年中，海外发达经济体更加重视资本回报但对实体经济的重视程度相对不足，这体现为美国和欧元区上市公 司 ROE 中枢水平抬升和企业部门杠杆率的下降。但近期海外对于实体经济的重视程度正在提升：德国政府在上周提交 的 2025 年预算草案中提出在 2025 年投资 1200 亿欧元用于基础设施建设，同时大幅增加国防领域开支，2025 至 2029 年赤字规模扩张 8000 亿欧元，占德国 GDP 比重约 20%；美国方面，鼓励制造业回流是特朗普第二任期内重要的施政方 针之一，在刚刚签署的《大美丽法案》也有诸多条目用于鼓励制造业投资，将先进制造业投资可用于税收抵免的额度 由 25%提升至 35%，以制造生产为目的购置的固定资产可以在投入使用当年按 100%折旧进行抵扣。此外，《大美丽法 案》大幅提高了美国政府债务上限，由于当前美联储隔夜逆回购工具余额相比前两轮美国财政部补充 TGA 账户时要更 低，这可能意味着未来全球美元流动性可能会面临一定的冲击。6 月开始主要经济体制造业 PMI 处于共振修复的过程 中，这对于资产定价的意义是：有利于制造业大国的中国的资本品出口从 ...

两大原料巨头冲刺 IPO，有望充分带动板块情绪。6月30日，北交所官网披露了维琪科技、珈凯生物的招股说明书， 两家企业的上市申报材料被正式受理。维琪科技成立于 2011 年，主要从事皮肤活性多肽、中国特色植物原料等化妆 品原料的研发、生产和销售，主要产品包含肌肽、铜肽 X、寡肽-1 肽粉等。根据弗若斯特沙利文的研究报告，在中 国化妆品多肽原料行业，维琪科技以 6.6%份额位列行业第一。珈凯生物成立于 2010 年，主要从事化妆品功效原料的 研发、生产和销售，其主要布局方向在植物原料和微生物发酵方面，代表性产品有悦肤宁、植物舒敏剂、积雪草苷、 维生素 C 乙基醚、β-葡聚糖、七叶树提取物等。两家原料公司在其主攻的原料开发领域均位居领先地位，且业绩增 长势头良好，其资本化进程加速，有望为我国原料市场和整个美妆市场注入新动力，增强我国原料市场竞争力。与 此同时，我们认为在美护创新研发景气度较高的背景下，叠加原料龙头上市事件催化，有望充分带动板块情绪。 美对越关税落地，利好出口板块情绪修复。7 月 3 日，美国总统特朗普称与越南达成关税协议，美国对越南输美商品 征收 20%关税（4 月特朗普最初宣称对越南施加的对等关 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 7 月 4 日，公司披露 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告，上半年 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 3.8-4.6 亿元，同比增加 80.94%-119.04%，实现扣非后归母净利润 2.3-3.1 亿元，同比增 加 190.04%-290.92%；上半年归母净利润预告中枢在 4.2 亿元， 推测单 Q2 归母净利润中枢值 3.15 亿元，上半年及单 Q2 的利润总 额为历史新高表现，净利率显著修复。 经营分析 成长逻辑不变：地产景气向下阶段，公司零售业务持续逆势增长， 家装墙面漆 2022-2024 年的收入增速分别为 18.2%、2.6%、12.8%， 25Q1 收入增速维持 8.0%。马上住、仿石漆、艺术漆新招客户均增 长显著，C 端多模块形成高利润、高增长态势，快速复制。各增量 细分市场竞争格局友好，行业需求存量阶段、公司去地产化和新消 费的成长逻辑不变。 毛利率继续修复：根据业绩预告，结合市场环境及需求变化，公司 积极调整和优化产品结构，毛利率同比保持增长。从最近两个财报 季度来看，24Q4 毛利率 32.5%，同比+0.44pct，环比+3.82pct，开 始企稳回升，25Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, predicting a reversal trend in 2025 [4] Core Viewpoints - The innovative drug sector is experiencing strong performance driven by multiple factors, including the completion of quarterly portfolio adjustments, increased policy support from the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission, and significant collaborations in the industry [1][11] - The NHSA and the National Health Commission have jointly released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which will accelerate the commercialization of domestic innovative products and create a positive cycle of profitability and strong R&D investment [20][21] - The report highlights the potential of dual/multi-target antibodies in cancer treatment and innovative drugs addressing unmet clinical needs in chronic diseases as key investment opportunities [1][4] Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector remains the main investment line, with a focus on dual/multi-target antibodies for various cancers and chronic diseases [1][11] - AstraZeneca is in talks for a collaboration worth up to $15 billion for the AK112 drug, which has catalyzed strong performance in related stocks [1] Pharmaceutical Sector - The NHSA's new measures will direct more healthcare resources towards innovative drugs, enhancing their commercialization and profitability [20][21] - The report notes that since 2018, 149 innovative drugs have been included in the healthcare insurance directory, significantly increasing the proportion of new drugs covered [22] Biologics - Changchun High-tech's new drug, Vuxin Qibai monoclonal antibody, has been approved for treating acute gout arthritis, marking a significant advancement in biologics [29][34] - The drug shows rapid onset of action and a substantial reduction in recurrence risk, highlighting its clinical significance [33][34] Traditional Chinese Medicine - Lingrui Pharmaceutical's new indication for its nasal spray is expected to boost sales, with ongoing efforts to expand hospital coverage and OTC sales [38][41] Medical Devices - The report emphasizes policy support for high-end medical devices, predicting accelerated commercialization in various segments such as medical robots and AI [3][4] Medical Services - Recent policies to enhance maternity benefits are expected to stimulate demand in related services [3][4]

618 家电零售增长稳健，美越关税落地有望带动出口链情绪回温 2025 年 618 家电市场整体表现稳健，主要品类均实现增长，内部结构持续优化。整体市场延续回暖趋势，白电品类 零售量和零售额双双提升，均价保持稳定；黑电品类表现亮眼，618 期间中国彩电市场销量同比增长 9.7%，销额同比 增长 14.5%，线上线下均实现量价双增。具体来看，空调品类增长势头强劲，线上线下零售额同比增幅均超过 15%， 头部品牌如美的、小米、海尔表现突出，品牌集中度提升，产品上"新一级能效"占据绝对主流（线上线下占比均超 95%），"舒适风"功能线上渗透率升至 27.66%。洗衣机市场线上线下零售额分别同比增长 17.1%和 12.1%，行业竞争 焦点转向大容量、分区洗等功能升级。冰箱品类增长稳健，全渠道零售额同比增长 3.3%，消费以刚需替换为主。彩电 则实现了销量与销额的双位数增长，产品结构升级显著，大尺寸、高刷新率、Mini LED 及艺术电视渗透率持续提升， 行业竞争正从价格导向转向用户体验和价值导向。 美越达成初步贸易协议，关税政策落地低于预期，有望显著提振中国家电出口链市场情绪。根据协议，美国将对大部 分越南出口商品 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/06/30-2025/07/04）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 0.26%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 24；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.54%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 8.29%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 7；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.20%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 工程机械开工景气度短期波动，不改内需复苏长逻辑。6 月工程机械主要产品月开工率为 56.9%，同比下降 7.55 pct，环比下降 8.56pct。6 月工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为 77.2 小时，同比下降 9.11pct，环比下降 8. 56pct。根据挖掘机更新周期为 8 年左右测算，25、26、27 年国内挖掘机更新需求为 14.3、19.5、24.9 万台。 更新周期带动的内销复苏长逻辑有望维持，带动主机厂业绩持续增长。建议关注三一重工、徐工机械、中联重 科、柳工、恒立液压。 两机业务增长加速+低空业务即将进入批量交付 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

科创债 ETF 及获批机构划重点 首批科创债 ETF 登场。7 月 2 日，华夏基金、南方基金、易方达基金、博时基金、广发基金、招商基金、鹏华基金、 嘉实基金、富国基金和景顺长城基金上报的首批科创债 ETF 获得证监会批文。7 月 3 日，10 只科创债 ETF 的招募说明 书、基金合同、发售公告全部于其基金公司官网披露完毕，并宣布将于 7 月 7 日进行发售。首批申报科创债 ETF 的基 金公司包括华夏基金、易方达基金、南方基金、嘉实基金、广发基金、富国基金、博时基金、鹏华基金、景顺长城基 金、招商基金等 10 家机构，主要可分为三类，一是早期布局 ETF 基金的华夏基金、易方达基金等，其 ETF 基金规模 均在 6000 亿元以上；二是需要填补债券型 ETF 发展空白的机构，如嘉实基金、景顺长城基金目前还未发行债券型 ETF 产品；三是进一步丰富 ETF 产品类型的机构，如博时基金、富国基金、广发基金等，在旗下 ETF 基金规模较大的前提 下，积极参与新类型产品的开发。 科创债 ETF 跟踪指数特征简析 首批上报的 10 只科创债 ETF，主要跟踪中证 AAA 科创债、沪 AAA 科创债、深 AAA 科创 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.7 RMB based on a PE of 23X for 2025 [4]. Core Views - The acquisition of New潮传媒 is expected to benefit the company in three main areas: enhancing coverage and meeting diverse client needs, solidifying its leading position, and improving data integration for better effectiveness in advertising [2][14]. - The partnership with Alipay to integrate advertising and payment processes is anticipated to enhance the conversion chain from advertisement to consumer action, thereby increasing market potential for elevator advertising [3][35]. - The evolving consumer trends are likely to drive incremental advertising spending in the elevator media sector, particularly as new industries and brands emerge [3][38]. Summary by Sections Acquisition of New潮传媒 - The acquisition aims to complete the coverage of advertising points and demographics, thus better satisfying diverse brand advertising needs [14]. - The company’s leading market position is expected to be further strengthened, enhancing its bargaining power [14][25]. - Data integration post-acquisition is projected to facilitate better effectiveness in advertising campaigns [28]. Partnership with Alipay - The collaboration with Alipay is designed to create a seamless link between advertisement viewing and consumer interaction, potentially resolving attribution challenges in traditional elevator media [35]. - The rapid growth of Alipay's user base and its integration into the company's advertising channels is expected to enhance market reach [36]. New Consumer Trends - Analysis indicates that changes in consumer behavior will likely stimulate new advertising investments, particularly in competitive sectors like internet services and online education [38]. - The report highlights that as competition intensifies, advertising prices for effect-driven campaigns may rise, benefiting brand advertising [38]. - New consumer companies are expected to have robust advertising budgets due to their higher profitability and ongoing industry expansion [38]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 54.5 billion, 57.6 billion, and 61.9 billion RMB, respectively, with a PE ratio of 19, 18, and 17 [4][8].