摘要 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"20 天台债"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "20 天台债"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 02"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价 上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"25 农行二级资本债 04B(BC)"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 20 天台债 | 2.00 | -33.42 | 39.95 | 34.99 | 1.98 | 4.80 | AA ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development such as servers and IDC, as well as sectors like servers and optical modules driven by overseas AI development [5]. Core Insights - Google has launched the Gemini 3 Flash model, which maintains close inference capabilities to Gemini 3 Pro while achieving three times the speed of Gemini 2.5 Pro at a quarter of the cost [1]. - OpenAI plans to raise up to $100 billion in a new funding round, potentially valuing the company at $830 billion, with Amazon negotiating to invest at least $10 billion [1][60]. - Supermicro is collaborating with xAI to build the world's first 1GW data center in Memphis, utilizing NVIDIA's GB300 GPU [1]. - ByteDance is actively advancing in the AI sector, with significant model releases and partnerships with hardware manufacturers to pre-install AI plugins on devices [1]. - The optical fiber sector has seen significant price increases, with major manufacturers reporting a 15% rise in prices for certain products [1][3]. Summary by Sections Communication Sector Insights - The communication sector index decreased by 0.89% this week, ranking 27th among all industries [44]. - The telecom business revenue reached CNY 14,670 billion from January to October 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [4][27]. Subsector Performance - Server index decreased by 2.99% this week and 6.17% this month, with OpenAI's valuation expected to exceed $500 billion due to Amazon's investment [2][7]. - Optical module index decreased by 4.38% this week but increased by 14.35% this month, with Google optimizing AI chip performance for PyTorch [2][7]. - IDC index decreased by 2.77% this week but increased by 0.73% this month, with significant growth in AI model usage reported [2][8]. Key Data Updates - Telecom business volume growth is gradually improving, with a 9% year-on-year increase in telecom business volume calculated at constant prices [4]. - The export value of optical modules decreased by 27.6% year-on-year in October, primarily due to domestic companies establishing overseas factories [4][32]. Market Trends - The optical fiber index increased by 4.20% this week and 17.99% this month, indicating positive signals in price and volume metrics [3][12]. - The report highlights the robust growth of the domestic AI sector, particularly in server and IDC segments, driven by increasing demand and technological advancements [5].

11 月家电社零偏弱，26 年 1 月错期影响下空调排产反弹 11 月社会消费品零售总额当月值 43,898.0 亿元，同比+1.3%，较 10 月 2.9%的增速有所回落；25 下半年，社零增速整 体呈逐月放缓态势。11 月家电社零当月规模约 1000 亿元，同比-19.4%，较 10 月增速降幅进一步扩大；从月度节奏 看，家电社零增速自 6 月高位后持续回落，至 10 月转负、11 月继续走弱，主要系：1）去年国补拉动形成较高基数， 使今年同期对比压力更大；2）今年国补力度边际退坡，叠加前期需求一定程度前置，终端需求回落，从而拖累家电社 零同比明显下滑。 空调方面，错期影响下 26 年 1 月内需排产出现阶段性回升，但零售端仍偏弱。2025 年家用空调排产计划值年内呈"先 高后低"走势，进入 2026 年初排产反弹，奥维云网推总数据显示 1 月空调内销排产 884 万台同比+32.0%、出口排产 1113 万台同比+14.0%，出口端实现自 2025 年 5 月以来连续 7 个月负增长后的首次由负转正。本轮排产改善更多来自 节日错期下的企业排产前置（2026 年春节落于 2 月，备货与排产窗口前移、部分 ...

S1130525060003 gantanhuan gjzq.com.cn AI + + 投资逻辑 本周蚂蚁阿福 APP 上市后高流量带动下医疗 AI 主题关注度较高。此前互联网医疗痛点来自于 1）远程平台客户粘性 不足，活跃用户比例较低；2）优质医疗资源有限。而蚂蚁阿福从 AI 工具到 AI 朋友全面升级，并上线健康陪伴、健 康问答、健康服务三大功能。健康陪伴功能通过高频健康管理的方式很好的解决了此前客户粘性问题，同时也成为链 接患者与药品、终端服务的入口。此外平台，链接了全国 5000 家医院和 30 万真人医生，拥有六位国家院士领衔的全 国 500 多位名医开设的'AI 分身'，实现优质医疗资源"平民化"。我们认为蚂蚁阿福是 AI 医疗规模化市场与可行商 业模式再验证，同时平台流量有望为"医+药+险"全链条赋能。 药品板块：12 月 18 日，武田宣布其 TYK2 抑制剂 Zasocitinib 针对中重度斑块状银屑病的 2 项注册 III 期临床中达 到所有主要与次要终点。第 16 周时 ZASO 组超过一半患者实现 PASI 90，平均约 30%患者实现 PASI 100。武田制药计 划在即将举行的 ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价维持震荡。俄乌谈判进展顺利施压油价，柏林谈判美乌在多个关键议题上形成初步共识，美方表 示乌俄之间约 90%的问题已解决，准备前往俄罗斯继续推动谈判。同时欧盟理事会对俄罗斯"影子舰队"实施制 裁。而委内瑞拉局势反复，其原油的折扣幅度已扩大至较布油低 21 美元，而上周折价 14 至 15 美元。周中市场 预期特朗普或下令对委内瑞拉宣战，但 18 号特朗普在国情咨文演讲中未提到委内瑞拉，随后表示仍不排除与委 内瑞拉开战的可能性。总体看，俄乌和谈推进而美委局势紧张，地缘博弈持续。截止 12 月 18 日，WTI 现货收于 56.15 美元，环比-1.45 美元；BRENT 现货收于 61.43 美元，环比-0.95 美元。EIA12 月 12 日当周商业原油库存 环比-127.4 万桶，前值-181.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-74.2 万桶，前值+30.8 万桶。汽油库存环比+480.8 万 桶，前值+639.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+0.3%至 94.8%。美国原油库存下降，净进口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "24 Guoyuan 01" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "22 Vanke 02" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 01A(BC)" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 China Everbright Bank Bond 02" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the individual bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, real estate bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 1 - 1.5 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted transactions. The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted transactions. By industry, real estate industry bonds had the largest average deviation in valuation prices [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "24 Guoyuan 01", "Jian Guan VY02", and "24 China Construction MTN002" had significant valuation price deviations in discounted transactions. The industries involved included urban investment, transportation, and building decoration. The transaction scales ranged from several million yuan to tens of millions of yuan [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - Bonds like "22 Vanke 02", "22 Vanke 04", and "22 Vanke 06" had large positive deviations in valuation prices. The industries mainly included real estate, non - bank finance, and urban investment. The transaction scales varied from tens of thousands of yuan to hundreds of millions of yuan [5]. 3.3 Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Bonds such as "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 01A(BC)", "25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 03BC", and "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 02A(BC)" had certain valuation price deviations. Banks involved included state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks. The transaction scales were relatively large, reaching tens of millions of yuan to billions of yuan [6]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Bonds like "25 China Everbright Bank Bond 02", "24 China Construction Bank Bond 01B", and "25 Jiangsu Bank Bond 02BC" had valuation price deviations. Banks included joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, and city commercial banks. The transaction scales ranged from several million yuan to hundreds of millions of yuan [7]. 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds such as "22 Vanke 02", "22 Vanke 04", and "24 Chanrong 06" had a transaction yield higher than 5%. The industries mainly included real estate and non - bank finance. The transaction scales were relatively small, mostly in the range of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - Financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 1 - 1.5 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2]. 3.9 Discounted Transaction Proportions and Transaction Scales of Non - Financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The real estate industry had the largest average deviation in non - financial credit bond valuation prices [2].

量化信用策略 截至 12 月 12 日，控回撤成为近期主要策略目标。具体来看，城投短端下沉、商金债子弹型及券商债下沉组合的累计 超额收益分别达到 5bp、4.4bp、1.5bp，其余中长端策略累计则不足 5bp。近一个月内慢涨快跌的行情下控回撤成为 主要目标，而非基于久期+波段做出超额，毕竟前两个月表现出色的城投哑铃组合，近四周累计超额读数降至-25.7bp 的低位。金融债重仓组合也是如此，下沉策略超出对应久期策略累计收益均值 12bp 之多。 ETF 谋势 上周（12/8-12/12）债券型 ETF 资金净流入 29.5 亿元，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 分别净流入 53.7 亿元、 净流出 9.6 亿元、净流出 14.6 亿元。业绩表现来看，相较于上周，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 累计单位净 值周度涨跌幅分别为+0.05%、+0.08%、+0.20%，债券 ETF 净值边际修复。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 12 月 15 日，与前一周相比，非金融非地产类产业债收益超过半数上行，不过，除 1 年内民企私募债外， 其余品种收益调整不足 4BP；地产债收益普遍 ...

立足水泥产业链，盈利能力行业领先 公司主业以华东市场为核心，依托长江水运便捷的物流通道和当 地稳定优质的石灰石资源布局江、浙、皖、赣等省，较低的成本形 成水泥主业的先发优势。公司具备水泥熟料年产能约 1800 万吨， 水泥年产能约 2000 万吨，骨料年产能 1800 万吨。 （1）T 型战略奠定公司成本优势：公司在沿江石灰石多的地方建 立水泥熟料基地，在经济较为发达的沿海地区收购、改造小水泥厂 为水泥研磨站，既能利用安徽当地优质石灰石矿山，又能凭借长江 水运实现熟料低成本输送。2025 年上半年公司吨成本仅为 154.46 元（同期海螺水泥吨成本为 173.55 元），处于行业领先水平。 （2）"区域+产业链"布局双延伸：公司稳步向西部、南部延伸， 多区域布局有助于降低公司单一市场依赖。公司 2014 年切入骨料 业务，骨料往往价格以成本为底线，市场竞争弱于水泥，有助于缓 解需求下行对公司整体业绩的冲击；公司同时利用水泥窑协同处 置危废、固废，年处置能力约 86.8 万吨，该业务是符合国家产业 政策的创新型环保业务。 前瞻布局半导体投资 战略层面，公司 2020 年提出"一主两翼"规划，在夯实水泥建材 主业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is set to invest approximately 1 billion RMB in the construction of an aerospace equipment assembly base, which aims to establish capabilities for the development and production of aerospace equipment, including the "Haolong" spaceplane [2]. - The "Haolong" aircraft is China's first reusable cargo spaceplane, designed for low-cost transportation systems for commercial space stations, offering significant advantages in cost efficiency and operational flexibility [3]. - The market potential for commercial space services, such as supply to space stations and satellite deployment, is vast, aligning with the company's strategic positioning as a leading aerospace manufacturer [3]. - The company is expected to see substantial growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projections of 3.79 billion RMB, 4.76 billion RMB, and 5.71 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3271.88%, 25.81%, and 19.85% respectively [3][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.68 billion RMB in 2023 to 80.61 billion RMB in 2025, representing a staggering growth rate of 4429.50% [8]. - The company's diluted earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.17 RMB in 2023 to 1.42 RMB in 2025 [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 263.28 in 2023 to 51.74 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as profitability increases [8].

Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - Powell described the U.S. labor market as a "curious kind of balance" due to a marked slowing in both supply and demand for workers[3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise further as labor supply continues to recover, indicating that "weak labor supply" is misleading[3] - The employment distribution is narrowing, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, signaling a weakening "service-employment-income-consumption" chain[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The unemployment rate is becoming a key indicator for observing the U.S. economy, with a significant rise expected in the second half of 2025[9] - The unemployment rate reached 4.564% in November, exceeding the Federal Reserve's forecast of 4.5% for the end of 2025[13] - The anticipated rise in unemployment may trigger a "recession trade" as the Federal Reserve's tolerance for rising unemployment is limited[13] Group 3: Interest Rate and Employment Impact - The ability to suppress the unemployment rate depends on factors such as the relative position to "neutral interest rates" and the clarity of fiscal and monetary policy paths[14] - There is a risk that the impact of interest rate cuts on employment may be overestimated, with smaller stimulus effects and longer lag times[31] - The structure of non-farm payrolls remains weak, with private sector job growth largely stagnant outside of the education and healthcare sectors[14] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[5] - Global economic conditions may worsen under clearer tariffs, potentially leading to unexpected global monetary easing[5] - Data measurement errors could impact the accuracy of economic assessments[5]