人民币升值下的行业机会 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2026年1月23日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：1）全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。2）市场流动性超预期变化。3）历史数据不代表未来。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 1、人民币升值对于A股有何影响？——在人民币升值周期内，无论人民币是否为被动升值，全A指数普遍呈现上行趋势。行业上，人 民币升值对于多数行业股价均有正向影响，其中钢铁、房地产、轻工和交运等行业靠前。风格上，多数区间成长风格强于价值风格， 大盘和小盘之间无明显占优风格。 ➢ 2、如何寻找人民币升值下的行业机会？——基本面视角。直接来看，人民币升值会降低原材料成本和债务成本，间接来看，人民币升 值会提升人民币购买力。1）进口依赖度高且海外营收占比相对较低的行业，人民币升值或能降低原材料成本，如有色、钢铁、煤炭和 农林牧渔。2）美元借款体量大的行业，人民币升值或能降低债务成本，如电子、交运、建筑装饰和家电。3）对于可选消费行业，人 民币升值或能带动业绩增长。 ➢ 3、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of public - offering active equity funds decreased, and the position in Hong Kong stocks declined. The scale of fixed - income funds increased, and the duration remained at a high level. FOF funds maintained a high issuance rhythm, and the scale recovered [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Public Funds 2025Q4 Quarterly Report Highlights - Active equity funds: The scale decreased, and the position in Hong Kong stocks dropped. The number increased steadily, the scale decreased, and the position was at 86% [11][12]. - Active bond funds: The scale of fixed - income funds grew, and the duration remained high. The number increased continuously, and the scale increased by 1.1% compared with the previous period [13]. - FOF products: FOF funds maintained a high issuance rhythm, and the scale recovered. In Q4, 43 new FOF products were issued, and the total scale increased by about 16.9% compared with Q3 [14][15]. 3.2 Active Equity - Type Funds 3.2.1 Scale and Position Changes - The scale of public - offering active equity funds decreased, and the position decreased slightly. The number reached 4,679, with an increase of 59 compared with Q3. The current scale was 3.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.13% compared with Q3. The position was at 86%, a decrease of about 1% compared with Q3 [19][21][24]. 3.2.2 Industry Allocation Changes - The most heavily held industries were electronics, communication, medicine, power equipment and new energy, and non - ferrous metals. The industries with the most increased allocation were non - ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non - banking finance, and machinery. The industries with the most reduced allocation were medicine, media, computer, electronics, and commercial retail [25][26]. 3.2.3 Sector Allocation Changes - The concepts with the most increased allocation were resource stocks, optical modules, base stations, East - West Computing, pro - cyclical, IDC, optical communication, and communication equipment. The concepts with the most reduced allocation were dual - cycle, self - controllability, advanced manufacturing, 5G applications, and digital economy [29]. 3.2.4 Style Allocation Changes - In Q4, public funds increased their preference for high - elasticity and high - momentum stocks, and further increased their holdings of growth stocks. The volatility of holding stocks decreased significantly, and the number of holding concentrated stocks increased [30][32][33]. 3.2.5 Individual Stock Allocation Changes (A - shares) - The stocks with the highest holding ratio in Q4 were Zhongji Innolight, Xinyisheng, etc. The stocks with the most increased holdings were Zhongji Innolight, Ping An of China, etc., and the stocks with the most reduced holdings were Industrial Fubon, CATL, etc. [34][35]. 3.2.6 Individual Stock Allocation Changes (Hong Kong Stocks) - In 2025Q4, the position in Hong Kong stocks of public funds decreased. The total holding market value was about 305.2 billion yuan, and the weighted total position in Hong Kong stocks was 12.41%, a decrease of 2.04% compared with Q3. The stocks with the most increased holdings were Ping An of China, CNOOC, etc., and the stocks with the most reduced holdings were Alibaba - W, Tencent Holdings, etc. [36][40][41]. 3.2.7 Value - Type Fund Allocation and Views - Value - type funds preferred food and beverages, banks, home appliances, non - banking finance, and media. The newly added industries were non - banking finance, petroleum and petrochemicals, machinery, basic chemicals, and building materials [46]. 3.2.8 Growth - Type Fund Allocation and Views - Growth - type funds preferred electronics, communication, power equipment and new energy, machinery, and automobiles. In 2025Q4, they added positions in communication, non - ferrous metals, machinery, basic chemicals, and power equipment and new energy [49]. 3.3 Active Bond Funds 3.3.1 Scale and Quantity Changes - The scale of fixed - income funds increased, and the duration remained high. The total number was 4,293, an increase of 1.1% compared with Q3. The total scale was about 9.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous period [57]. 3.3.2 Bond Type Allocation Changes - The allocation ratio of bond - type funds changed little compared with Q3. They increased their holdings of medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, while the proportion of financial bonds, treasury bonds, and corporate short - term financing bonds decreased [58]. 3.3.3 Duration Allocation Changes - In December 2025, the average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was 4.11. In the market where the maturity yield of treasury bonds was declining but the downward space was relatively limited, the duration of bond - type funds remained at a high level [60]. 3.4 FOF Products 3.4.1 Scale and Quantity Changes - FOF funds maintained a high issuance rhythm, and the scale continued to recover. In Q4, 43 new FOF products were issued, and the total scale was about 218.794 billion yuan, an increase of about 16.9% compared with Q3 [65][68]. 3.4.2 Position Changes - They increased their holdings of active bond - type funds, and the proportion of passive bond - type funds and equity - type funds decreased [69][74]. 3.4.3 Target Preference Changes - FOF preferred equity - type funds with strong industry allocation and dynamic trading capabilities, mainly technology - manufacturing - oriented funds. For fixed - income funds, it preferred funds with strong credit management and term structure allocation capabilities [76][78].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the demand for AI computing power will continue to grow and diversify in 2026, extending from data centers to network edges and even internal terminals [8][13][27] - The report highlights the significant capital expenditure (Capex) growth driven by business revenue, with major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon showing consistent revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [27][31][35] - The report identifies the increasing importance of silicon photonics technology, particularly the 1.6T optical module, which is expected to maintain accelerated growth and enhance the global market share of domestic optical chips and devices [7][54][70] Group 2 - The report discusses the emergence of new technologies such as Scale-UP supernodes and their impact on optical link demand, indicating that these technologies will drive additional link requirements in 2026 [7][9][66] - It notes that the AI infrastructure is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with significant investments in data centers and AI capabilities expected to continue, particularly in the U.S. [47][49][53] - The report anticipates that the integration of silicon photonics will significantly increase its market penetration, projecting that by 2026, over half of optical module sales will come from silicon photonics solutions [70][75]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Yidelong (603380.SH) [3] Core Views - Yidelong is positioned as a leading flexible EMS company globally, entering a new value cycle driven by R&D. The company has over 20 years of experience in the EMS industry, focusing on high-quality, small-batch, and multi-variety production. Key downstream industries include industrial control, communication equipment, medical devices, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics. The company is expanding its R&D efforts and exploring new products like PCB axial flux motors [8][10]. Financial Forecast and Key Metrics - Revenue projections for Yidelong are as follows: - 2024: 2,161 million CNY, growth rate of 12.7% - 2025: 2,498 million CNY, growth rate of 15.6% - 2026: 3,003 million CNY, growth rate of 20.2% - 2027: 3,546 million CNY, growth rate of 18.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2024: 184 million CNY, growth rate of 38.2% - 2025: 241 million CNY, growth rate of 30.9% - 2026: 291 million CNY, growth rate of 20.6% - 2027: 350 million CNY, growth rate of 20.3% - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be: - 2024: 1.15 CNY - 2025: 1.50 CNY - 2026: 1.81 CNY - 2027: 2.18 CNY - Price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected as follows: - 2024: 35x - 2025: 27x - 2026: 22x - 2027: 19x - Price-to-book (PB) ratios are projected as follows: - 2024: 4.3x - 2025: 4.1x - 2026: 3.6x - 2027: 3.1x [2] Company Overview - Yidelong has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controllers holding 43.59% of the shares. The management team has extensive experience, with key executives having worked in the company for over ten years [20][22]. - The company has established a global production base, including facilities in Mexico, Vietnam, and Romania, allowing for localized supply and reduced costs [51][54]. Industry Insights - The EMS industry is transitioning to a multi-center regional manufacturing model, with significant growth expected in the coming years. The global EMS market is projected to grow from 638.2 billion USD in 2023 to 799 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 4.6% [41][42]. - There are two major trends in the EMS industry: the restructuring of supply chains by international brands seeking partners with R&D capabilities, and the shift from a primarily Asia-Pacific manufacturing model to a more diversified regional approach [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown a positive turnaround in revenue growth, with a cumulative revenue increase of 0.2% year-on-year for 2025, and a net profit increase of 0.3% year-on-year [8]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228.41%, indicating enhanced risk resilience [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from its "light capital, light asset, high efficiency" development model, leveraging its wealth management and investment banking advantages [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 212,226 million, Net Profit of 77,205 million - 2025E: Revenue of 212,741 million, Net Profit of 77,469 million - 2026E: Revenue of 219,804 million, Net Profit of 80,369 million - 2027E: Revenue of 230,555 million, Net Profit of 84,788 million [2][39]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 0.2% for 2025, 3.3% for 2026, and 4.9% for 2027 - Net profit growth rates are projected at 0.3% for 2025, 3.7% for 2026, and 5.5% for 2027 [2][39]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to be 3.52 in 2024, 3.47 in 2025, 3.61 in 2026, and 3.82 in 2027 [2][39]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 6 for 2025 and 5 for 2026 and 2027 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is expected to be 0.5 for 2025 and decrease to 0.4 by 2027 [2][39]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets grew by 5.6% year-on-year in 2025, with loans increasing by 3.7% - Total liabilities increased by 5.9%, with deposits growing by 7.2% [8]. - The company’s total assets surpassed 11 trillion, supported by significant growth in the broad financial market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the uranium industry, particularly recommending CGN Mining [5][9]. Core Insights - The demand for natural uranium is expected to accelerate due to multiple factors including nuclear energy, geopolitical influences, and rising price expectations, while supply constraints remain rigid [9]. - The U.S. government has included natural uranium in its "strategic minerals" list, which may lead to increased domestic prices and a dual pricing system if import restrictions are implemented [4]. - The SPUT trust plans to issue up to $2 billion in trust shares, which will significantly impact the natural uranium market by increasing secondary demand [7]. Summary by Sections U.S. Policy Impact - The U.S. is initiating negotiations to protect domestic uranium production, potentially leading to higher domestic prices compared to international prices [4]. - The U.S. Department of Energy has allocated $2.7 billion to support domestic uranium enrichment services, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [4]. Market Dynamics - The current spot price of uranium is reported at $86.5 per pound, with long-term contract prices also reaching $86.5 per pound, indicating a bullish market outlook [9]. - Japan's nuclear power plants are gradually restarting, which is expected to enhance traditional uranium demand and support price stability [7]. Company Performance - CGN Mining is projected to benefit from rising uranium prices, with expected production and trading performance improving in 2025 and beyond [9]. - The company has adjusted its pricing mechanisms to better align with market conditions, enhancing its earnings potential [9]. Future Outlook - The commercialization of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) is anticipated to create new demand avenues for uranium, further driving price increases [7]. - The report suggests that the combination of increased primary and secondary demand, along with supply constraints, will likely lead to sustained price growth in the uranium market [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown a positive turnaround in revenue growth, with a cumulative revenue increase of 0.2% year-on-year for 2025, and a net profit increase of 0.3% [8]. - The fourth quarter saw a significant expansion in the broad financial market, contributing to the company's asset growth, which increased by 5.6% year-on-year [8]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228.41%, indicating improved risk resilience [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 212,226 million, Net Profit of 77,205 million - 2025E: Revenue of 212,741 million, Net Profit of 77,469 million - 2026E: Revenue of 219,804 million, Net Profit of 80,369 million - 2027E: Revenue of 230,555 million, Net Profit of 84,788 million [2][39]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 0.2% for 2025, 3.3% for 2026, and 4.9% for 2027 - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 0.3% for 2025, 3.7% for 2026, and 5.5% for 2027 [2][39]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to be 3.52 for 2024, 3.47 for 2025, 3.61 for 2026, and 3.82 for 2027 [2][39]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 6 for 2025 and 5 for 2026 and 2027 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is expected to remain at 0.5 for 2025 and decrease to 0.4 by 2027 [2][39]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased significantly by over 4,200 million in the fourth quarter, surpassing 11 trillion in total assets - Total liabilities grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with deposits increasing by 7.2% [8]. - The company has adjusted its funding strategy to match asset growth, increasing bond issuance and interbank liabilities [8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading flexible EMS provider globally, entering a new value cycle driven by R&D [8] - The EMS industry is transitioning to a "regional manufacturing + demand restructuring" phase, with a focus on localized production and partnerships with R&D capabilities [10] - The company is expanding its R&D efforts and product offerings, particularly in PCB axial motors, which are expected to have significant market potential [10] Summary by Sections 1. Flexible EMS Leader, Entering a New R&D-Driven Value Cycle - The company has over 20 years of experience in the EMS industry, with a global production base established in regions like Mexico, Vietnam, and Romania [16] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the founding team having extensive experience [20] - Revenue has shown steady growth, with a significant recovery in profitability expected starting in 2024 [24] 2. Transition from EMS to R&D Manufacturing, Unlocking Growth Potential - The EMS industry is entering a new phase characterized by regional manufacturing and demand restructuring [37] - The company has established multiple overseas production bases to enhance its delivery capabilities and reduce costs [51] 3. Forward-Looking Layout in High-Potential Sectors, R&D of PCB Axial Motors - PCB axial motors are highlighted for their advantages in lightweight and high power density, suitable for applications in robotics and electric vehicles [57] - The global market for axial flux motors is projected to grow significantly, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend [78] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 24.98 billion, 30.03 billion, and 35.46 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.41 billion, 2.91 billion, and 3.50 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [5]. Core Insights - The company is leading the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) iteration wave and is expected to achieve commercialization by 2026 [2][3]. - The company has received IND approval for its self-developed ADAM9 ADC drug DB-1317, allowing clinical trials in late-stage metastatic solid tumor patients [2]. - The HER2 ADC DB-1303 has reached its primary endpoint in a Phase III clinical trial for HER2-positive unresectable or metastatic breast cancer, accelerating its path to market [3]. - The company is expected to report significant clinical data in 2026, which could enhance its market position and revenue potential [9]. Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for the company are as follows: 1,941 million RMB in 2024, 1,950 million RMB in 2025, 1,972 million RMB in 2026, and 2,100 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 8.7%, 0.5%, 1.1%, and 6.5% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -1,050 million RMB in 2024, -247 million RMB in 2025, -386 million RMB in 2026, and -341 million RMB in 2027, showing a significant improvement in 2025 with a growth rate of 76.5% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be -11.75 RMB in 2024, -2.76 RMB in 2025, -4.31 RMB in 2026, and -3.82 RMB in 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [5]. Core Insights - The company is leading the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) innovation wave and is expected to achieve commercialization by 2026 [2][3]. - The company has received IND approval for its self-developed ADAM9 ADC drug DB-1317, allowing clinical trials in late-stage metastatic solid tumor patients [2]. - The HER2 ADC DB-1303 has reached its primary endpoint in a Phase III clinical trial for HER2-positive unresectable or metastatic breast cancer, accelerating its market approval process [3]. - The company is expected to report multiple clinical data readouts in 2026, which could significantly impact its growth trajectory [9]. Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,941 million, 1,950 million, 1,972 million, and 2,100 million RMB respectively, with growth rates of 8.7%, 0.5%, 1.1%, and 6.5% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -1,050 million, -247 million, -386 million, and -341 million RMB for the same years, reflecting growth rates of -193.8%, 76.5%, -56.1%, and 11.5% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be -11.75, -2.76, -4.31, and -3.82 RMB for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Clinical Development and Pipeline - The company is advancing its ADC pipeline, including DB-1316, which aims to address existing ADC resistance issues and is set to enter clinical stages soon [9]. - Collaborations with BioNtech are expected to yield significant clinical data in 2026, enhancing the company's competitive position in the ADC market [9].