新势力系列点评二十五 2025 年 11 月重点新能源车企交付量发布，据各公司披露数据： 零跑 70,327 辆，同比+75.1%，环比+0.1%； 小鹏 36,728 辆，同比+18.9%，环比-12.6%； 蔚来 36,275 辆，同比+76.3%，环比-10.2%； 理想 33,181 辆，同比-31.9%，环比+4.5%； 极氪 28,843 辆，同比+6.8%，环比+34.6%； 小米超 40,000 辆。 11 月车市短期承压，新能源渗透率持续提升。乘联会初步推算本月狭义乘用车零 售总市场规模约为 225.0 万辆左右，同比-8.7%，环比持平，其中新能源零售预 计可达 135 万辆，渗透率有望首次升到 60.0%。11 月 5 家样本新势力车企（不 含小米）合计交付 205,354 辆，同比+22.7%。11 月车市进入年末冲刺阶段，虽 然补贴政策的调整引发了消费者观望情绪，但我们认为此举避免了 2025 年底对 于 2026 年销量的过分透支，有利于 2026Q1 的车市趋稳回升。新能源渗透率的 持续提升体现了在补贴收紧后，自主新能源产品仍然具有较强的市场竞争力。 新势力销量稳健，零跑维持首位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electronic industry, particularly highlighting companies like Guokewi and Xinhai Technology as key players to watch [5][6][8]. Core Insights - The Harmony ecosystem is rapidly expanding, with over 27 million devices equipped with HarmonyOS 5 and 6, and more than 1 million registered developers [2][4]. - The launch of the HUAWEI FreeBuds Pro 5, which supports the Star Flash audio technology, marks a significant step towards mainstream adoption of this technology [4]. - The Harmony ecosystem has seen a substantial increase in applications, with over 300,000 applications and a compatibility rate exceeding 95%, indicating a mature software ecosystem [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Harmony ecosystem is transitioning from breakthrough to maturity, with significant hardware and software updates showcased in recent product launches like the Huawei Mate 80 series and Mate X7 [2]. - The ecosystem's growth is supported by over 9,000 applications participating in system-level innovations, enhancing usability and user experience [2][3]. Key Companies - Guokewi has achieved significant milestones in chip development, with eight open-source Harmony chip platforms now in mass production across various sectors [3]. - Xinhai Technology is contributing to the Harmony ecosystem by integrating chips, algorithms, and systems to enhance smart home devices [3]. Financial Projections - Guokewi's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.64 CNY in 2025 to 1.34 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 161 to 76 over the same period [5]. - Xinhai Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.01 CNY in 2025 to 0.73 CNY in 2027, with a significant reduction in PE from 4297 to 47 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Guokewi, Xinhai Technology, Chuangyao Technology, and Lexin Technology due to their potential in the evolving Harmony ecosystem and audio technology [8].

基于实操视角复盘春季行情 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2025年12月3日 01 春季行情的阶段特征分析 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 春季行情中市场风格的表现对比 03 春季行情中市场应对思路推演 02 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 本篇报告从实操视角出发，复盘历年春季行情规律。重点讨论：1）春季行情的阶段特征分析；2）春季行情中市场风格 的表现对比；3）春季行情中市场应对思路推演。 ➢ 1、春季行情的阶段特征分析——绝对视角，春季行情多启动于12月下旬至1月中旬，相对视角，启动时点中位数为节前 11个交易日。历年春季行情走势可以归为三类情景——①对称V型；②大级别趋势上涨；③小级别趋势上涨。若春躁启 动时点相对较早，则大概率是趋势行情，进一步情景判断可观察国庆以来跌幅。若启动时点相对较晚，则大概率是对称V 型，破前高或可谨慎。 ➢ 2、春季行情中市场风格的表现对比——小盘成长在春躁中占优，大盘价值在春躁前性价比高。 ➢ 3、春季行情中市场应对思路推演——春节前十个交易日配置，胜率赔率均高，且错过春季行情概率小。 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to address the systematic rotation of market styles by identifying the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future mainstream market style. It evaluates assets based on the priority of "g > ROE > D" to determine whether there are good assets and whether they are overvalued[5][8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages based on the industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[8] 2. Use the "g > ROE > D" priority to compare assets, focusing on growth (g), profitability (ROE), and dividend yield (D)[5][8] 3. Incorporate factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), and valuation metrics (PB, DP, BP) to classify and evaluate assets[9][12] 4. Apply the framework to select industries and allocate them equally within each strategy[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotation since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 27.06%[19] --- Model Backtesting Results Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 27.06% since 2009[19] - **Excess Returns by Year**: - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62% - 2024: 52% - 2025 (YTD): 8%[22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate of industries based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the lifecycle stage[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the expected growth rate (gf) for each industry 2. Rank industries based on the highest expected growth rates 3. Select top-performing industries for allocation[9][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015 and 2025[38] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries with the highest earnings momentum (△g), particularly during transition and growth phases[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use △g to represent earnings momentum 2. Rank industries based on △g and select the top-performing ones 3. Incorporate additional factors such as SUE, SUR, and JOR for refinement[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has consistently delivered significant excess returns, especially in growth-dominant environments[40] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB-ROE residuals for each industry 2. Rank industries based on residuals and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed strongly from 2016 to 2020 but has weakened since 2021[43] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify industries with the highest scores, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[46] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued industries, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[49] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has delivered significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[49] 6. Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with the lowest PB and SIZE scores, focusing on stagnation and recession stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[52] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[52] --- Factor Backtesting Results Expected Growth (gf) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium: +51.15% (3 months) - Frozen Food: +14.08% (3 months)[38] Actual Growth (g) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium Chemicals: +51.88% (3 months) - Other Home Appliances: +14.93% (3 months)[41] Profitability (ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Buses: +10.46% (3 months)[43] Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Timber Processing: +145.24% (3 months) - Lithium Equipment: +21.95% (3 months)[46] Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Security: -2.24% (3 months)[49] Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Recent Performance**: - Gas: +15.88% (3 months) - Building Renovation: +16.42% (3 months)[52]

ERP的改进实践 ——策略专题研究 研究团队：邓宇林、包承超、周长民 报告日期：2025年12月3日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 03 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 03 A股市场，ERP（Fed Model）的上下两倍标准差分别对应 权益市场的阶段性低点和高点 图表：以美联储，1/PE-无风险利率（通常为10年国债收益率）的方式，计算的万得全A股权风险溢价（ERP） 资料来源：wind，国联民生证券研究所 2 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 03 1980-2002年，ERP（Fed Model）对美股的指引作用较 强，但后续明显失效 ➢ 1、Fed Model重要假设：股票定价时，使用名义利率而非实际利率，利率和估值负相关。 ➢ 2、Fed Model失效的原因：低利率低通胀低增长时代，投资者理性地调低了对未来名义盈利增长的预 期，利率下行但估值依旧下降。 ➢ 3、无论是美股还是A股，基于DCF模型计算Implied ERP，对股债收益率更有指引性。 ➢ 风险提示：全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。市场流动性超预期变化。历史 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited with a "Buy" rating [6][20]. Core Views - GCL-Poly focuses on the new energy high-tech sector, gradually becoming a leader in the polysilicon industry, forming a silicon-based industrial system centered on granular silicon, with collaborative development in semiconductor silicon and photovoltaic silicon wafers [4][12]. - The company’s granular silicon products are rapidly improving in quality, meeting the higher quality demands of the N-type era, and its cost competitiveness is expected to stand out during the industry's supply-side adjustment period [4][14]. - The report anticipates that GCL-Poly's profitability will gradually improve as the industry recovers, supported by its low-carbon attributes and cost advantages [15][20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - GCL-Poly is a leading global photovoltaic high-tech materials company, primarily engaged in the production of photovoltaic polysilicon and wafers, perovskite components, and high-purity silicon for semiconductors [24][25]. - The company has developed advanced self-research granular silicon technology and is focusing on low-carbon products, gradually forming two major industrial systems: silicon-based materials and perovskite battery materials [25]. Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is currently in a phase of supply-demand adjustment, with a focus on high-tech and low-energy consumption [31]. - The report predicts that the photovoltaic demand growth will slow down, with domestic photovoltaic installations expected to reach 300 GW in 2025, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [31][33]. - The industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a decline in product prices, with polysilicon prices remaining at historical lows [33][34]. Competitive Advantages - GCL-Poly's granular silicon products are expected to gain market share due to their lower production energy consumption compared to traditional rod silicon, with cash costs projected to drop to 24.16 CNY/kg by Q3 2025 [14][18]. - The company’s granular silicon has demonstrated superior performance in terms of minority carrier lifetime and has been validated for use in N-type monocrystalline applications, achieving 100% mass production by leading silicon wafer manufacturers [14][18]. - The report highlights that GCL-Poly's granular silicon has a significantly lower carbon footprint, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 75% compared to traditional methods [63]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts GCL-Poly's revenues for 2025-2027 to be 148.5 billion CNY, 195.0 billion CNY, and 216.2 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.6%, 31.3%, and 10.8% [15][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 7.2 billion CNY in 2025 to a profit of 29.4 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [15][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The AI power supply is achieving "military-grade" efficiency improvements, indicating a significant potential for onboard power systems [1]. - The report highlights that the traditional power supply models for AI cabinets may be approaching physical limits, suggesting that military power supply vendors are well-positioned to enter the AI power market [30][45]. - The overall market for power supplies is expansive, with rapid growth driven by investments in new energy generation, storage, and applications in various sectors [11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview of Power Supply Characteristics Across Industries - The power supply industry has a total market size exceeding 500 billion, with a growth rate of 32.33% in 2022, reaching a total output value of 517.4 billion [11]. - Key downstream applications include consumer electronics, industrial control, new energy vehicles, and medical devices, with IT and consumer electronics holding the largest market shares [11]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with over a thousand domestic companies in the switching power supply sector, leading to a low concentration of market share [12]. Section 2: Power Supply Requirements in Various Applications - Military power supplies have the highest requirements for power, temperature adaptability, and reliability compared to other sectors [25]. - AI power supplies are evolving, with current architectures requiring multiple voltage conversions, which may soon shift to a more efficient two-stage process with the adoption of 800V DC systems [57][61]. - The report discusses the specific power requirements for medical devices, communication equipment, and new energy vehicles, highlighting the varying demands across these sectors [13][20][21]. Section 3: Future Trends and Market Opportunities - The transition to 800V DC power supply architecture is expected to simplify power distribution in data centers, potentially leading to significant market growth [50][57]. - New Ray Energy is actively developing AI power solutions, leveraging its expertise in military-grade power supplies to tap into the growing AI market [47][49]. - The report emphasizes that as AI cabinet power approaches traditional physical limits, military power supply technologies will be crucial in meeting future demands [45][46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, exceeding guidance [4][12] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.52 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin increase of 0.5 percentage points [4][12] - The company has opened over 2,000 new hotels year-to-date, indicating strong expansion [14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 70 billion yuan, with M&F revenue at 33 billion yuan, reflecting a 27.2% year-on-year growth [4][12] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 15.2 billion yuan, marking a 10.8% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin improvement of 0.5 percentage points [4][12] Operational Metrics - The domestic RevPAR for Q3 2025 was 256 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while the ADR increased by 0.9% [14] - The company opened 749 new hotels in Q3 2025, with a total of over 2,000 new hotels opened this year, suggesting an annual opening rate exceeding the previous guidance of 2,300 hotels [14] Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a strong market position with a focus on high-quality expansion and a light-asset strategy, which has led to a steady increase in franchise business profitability [13][15] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 250.95 billion yuan, 266.46 billion yuan, and 284.94 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 5.0%, 6.2%, and 6.9% [15]

证券研究报告 |报告要点 基数及经营节奏影响下，空调 10 月内外销压力如期释放，国内龙头终端表现好于出货，产业 健康运行，价格体系稳定为主，经营面α及积极变化值得关注；出口关税压力减轻，美国开启 降息，有望带动外需，龙头 OBM 势能强劲，海外转产持续推进，修复阶段或好于线性预期。 |分析师及联系人 行业研究|行业点评研究|家用电器 产业在线 10 月空调数据简评： 压力释放，静待拐点 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年11月19日 证券研究报告 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 孙珊 管泉森 蔡奕娴 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523100007 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年11月19日 家用电器 产业在线 10 月空调数据简评： 压力释放，静待拐点 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2024/11 2025/3 2025/7 2025/11 家用电器 沪深300 相关报告 1、《家用电器：从双十一看家电：韧性收官， 关注结构红利》2025 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company has conducted a placement of 49.5 million shares at a price of HKD 41.70 per share, which represents 2.17% of the total share capital. This placement is expected to enhance liquidity and attract institutional investors [5][14]. - The company is projected to maintain a strong sales performance, ranking among the top three in the industry, with a focus on acquiring high-quality land in core first and second-tier cities [5][15]. - The company's shopping center operations are expanding steadily, with notable performance in lower-tier markets, indicating a robust operational capability and brand influence [5][16]. - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to show consistent growth, with net profits projected at HKD 40.73 billion, HKD 45.54 billion, and HKD 51.05 billion respectively [5][17]. Summary by Sections Placement and Liquidity - The placement by the controlling shareholder, China Resources Land, aims to diversify the shareholder structure and improve stock liquidity, with expected proceeds of approximately HKD 20.61 billion for land acquisition and operational costs [5][14][15]. Sales Performance and Land Acquisition - For the period from January to October 2025, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of HKD 169.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.6%, consistent with the industry's performance. The land acquisition amount was HKD 33.4 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [5][15]. Shopping Center Expansion - As of the first half of 2025, the company operates 125 shopping centers, with six new openings in the third quarter. The expansion includes both first-tier cities and lower-tier cities, demonstrating the company's competitive advantage in operational capabilities [5][16]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from HKD 184.97 billion in 2025 to HKD 221.53 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from HKD 40.73 billion to HKD 51.05 billion [5][17][18].