计算机行业周报 20251214 谁是中国的 MongoDB glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 市场回顾 本周（12.08-12.12）沪深 300 指数下跌 0.71%，中小板指数下跌 0.13%，创业板指 数上涨 1.75%，计算机（中信）板块下跌 1.44%。板块个股涨幅前五名分别为：开普 云、淳中科技、荣科科技、达华智能、赢时胜；跌幅前五名分别为：佳华科技、恒银 科技、中科曙光、思创医惠、天源迪科。 行业要闻 工信部：14 个行业数字化转型"场景导航图"发布； 谷歌：首款 AI 眼镜将于明年上市。 公司动态 神州信息：12 月 10 日消息，持有神州数码信息服务集团股份有限公股份 389,540,110 股（占公司总股本的 39.9211%）的控股股东神州数码软件有限公司，计划在本公告 披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内（即 2025 年 12 月 31 日至 2026 年 3 月 30 日），以集中竞价交易或大宗交易相结合的方式减持其持有的公司不超过 28,827,300 股股份，占公司总股本的 2.9543%，占剔除回购专用证券账户中的股份数量后的公司 总股本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

转债周策略 20251213 股性转债溢价率博弈策略的构建思路 glmszqdatemark 股性转债溢价率博弈策略的构建思路 股性转债价格涨跌主要由正股涨跌驱动，但部分股性转债转股溢价率的明显上升也为 投资者贡献额外的超额收益。下文我们从股性转债溢价率博弈的角度出发，筛选了今 年股性转债溢价率明显上升的标的，拆解归纳不同影响溢价率上升的动因，为投资者 后续择券提供参考。 我们认为构建股性转债溢价率博弈策略应主要着重于筛选哪些转债溢价率"易上难 下"，其中溢价率"难下"的主要择券标准可以设定为哪些转债溢价率低于 2%：由于 转债转股套利的存在，转债溢价率一般难以低于 0%，并且部分转债计入正股未来上 涨的预期，因此若只筛选溢价率在 0%附近的转债样本量过小。 我们筛选了今年以来，股性转债溢价率低于 2%，后面溢价率回升至 10%（回升至 10% 以上时，转债为股性转债，转换价值在 130 元以上）以上的转债标的作为样本，复盘 归纳哪些因素可能使得股性转债溢价率回升： 总体来看，我们认为构建股性转债溢价率博弈策略主要应该先初筛溢价率已经处于较 低水平的股性转债；然后判断转债的强赎概率和基本面，若后续转债披露"不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the small nucleic acid sector, anticipating significant catalysts by 2026 [5]. Core Views - The report emphasizes three main investment themes for 2026: innovation, international expansion, and turnaround opportunities. It suggests focusing on innovative drugs, biotech companies that have gone global, and supply chain strategies [2][21]. - The small nucleic acid therapy market is expected to experience substantial growth, with FDA-approved drugs like Inclisiran and Vutrisiran projected to reach sales of $754 million and $971 million respectively by 2024 [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Small Nucleic Acid Market Outlook - The report highlights the commercial growth potential of small nucleic acid therapies, with significant sales forecasts for drugs like Inclisiran and Vutrisiran, and a projected market size of $30 billion for Novartis's xRNA therapies [3][16]. - The business development (BD) trend for siRNA therapies is improving, with notable deals such as a $4.165 billion agreement with Novartis [3][20]. - Clinical catalysts are expected, with Arrowhead's ARO-DIMER-PA set to announce trial results in H2 2026 [4][20]. - Increased capital recognition is noted, with companies like Rebio Biotech preparing for IPOs, indicating a positive market sentiment [4][20]. 2. Market Review and Trends - The report reviews the recent performance of the pharmaceutical sector, noting a 1.04% decline in the A-share pharmaceutical index, underperforming compared to the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices [24][28]. - The overall trading volume in the pharmaceutical sector was 423.35 billion yuan, accounting for 4.38% of the total market, below the historical average of 7.13% [43][24]. - The report identifies the best-performing sub-sector as medical services II, while the worst was pharmaceutical commerce II [35][38]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality siRNA companies in China, such as Frontier Biotech, Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, and others, as they are positioned for rapid development in the small nucleic acid space [7][21]. - It suggests monitoring the clinical progress of various siRNA drugs in development, particularly those targeting metabolic diseases [22][21].

石化周报 美国降息、地缘发酵，油价受供应过剩担忧影响表现疲软 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 13 日 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 9.53 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 28.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 5.78 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 22.05 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 13 | ...

安联锐视（301042.SZ）公司动态报告 发力机器人领域，打造第二成长曲线 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 691 | 484 | 654 | 850 | | 增长率（%） | 0.4 | -29.9 | 35.0 | 30.0 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 71 | 37 | 83 | 126 | | 增长率（%） | -22.9 | -47.8 | 121.9 | 52.4 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.02 | 0.53 | 1.18 | 1.81 | | PE | 81 | 156 | 70 | 46 | | PB | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 12 日收盘价） 2025 年 12 月 13 日 | 推荐 | 首次评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for key players in the market [4]. Core Insights - The overseas market for robotic vacuum cleaners is experiencing significant growth, driven by Chinese brands leading the expansion. Notably, during the recent Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, sales for Roborock in Europe increased by 59% year-on-year, while sales in North America rose by at least 50%. The brand Chase achieved a remarkable 90% growth in Europe and 270% in North America [8][18]. - The pricing dynamics in the industry show a coexistence of upgrades and competition, with the average price of robotic vacuums expected to rise. For instance, the average prices on Amazon for best-selling models in the US, Germany, France, and Japan increased by 17%, 22%, 9%, and 3% year-on-year, respectively [23][28]. - The competitive landscape indicates that traditional overseas leaders are under pressure, while Chinese brands are poised to benefit from this shift. iRobot is facing liquidity and debt default risks, which may allow Chinese brands to capture market share in Europe and North America [34][36]. Summary by Sections Growth - The overseas robotic vacuum market has seen rapid growth, with a 58% increase in downloads for the top eight brands from January to November 2025. Europe is leading this growth, followed by Asia-Pacific and North America, which still shows over 30% growth despite tariff uncertainties [11][15]. Pricing - The combination of premium products becoming more affordable and consumers opting for upgrades is driving the average price increase in the industry. However, aggressive pricing competition during year-end promotions has led to some price reductions in specific markets [23][28]. Competitive Landscape - iRobot is under significant operational and debt pressure, which may allow Chinese brands to gain market share. The report suggests that iRobot's overseas market share has dropped below 10%, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese brands to capitalize on this situation [34][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in leading cleaning appliance brands such as Roborock and Ecovacs, which are expected to maintain high growth rates in overseas markets. The domestic market is also anticipated to grow rapidly due to ongoing product innovation and increasing penetration rates [51][52].

2026 年转债投资策略 稳中求变，顺势而为 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 林浩睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110039 | | | 邮箱： | linhaorui@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄涵静 | | 执业证书： S0590125110075 | | | 邮箱： | huanghanjing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 11 日 2026 年转债市场预计维持震荡向上的趋势；权益市场"慢牛"行情下，股性/平 衡转债或持续活跃；供需端均有结构性演化，市场对高估值环境预计逐渐适应。 供需-方兴未艾：2026 年转债供需预计将呈现紧平衡的局面，当部分转债强赎或 者到期后，新券上市将满足对应的配置需求。基于供给端的角度，预计高景气高 预期行业的转债仍将持续上市，并 ...

邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 美联储政策观察 鲍威尔的"鹰"派降息剧本？ glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 分析师：邵翔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590525120004 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 作为今年美联储的收官会议，12 月议息后的政策走向已成为当前市场核心焦点。 结合纽约联储行长威廉姆斯等官员此前的鸽派信号，以及市场对降息的高度一致 预期，本次会议如期降息 25 个基点的概率较高。而市场核心分歧在于，鲍威尔在 会议上的表态将为后续的政策路径提供何种指引。 我们认为，鲍威尔很可能在会议上释放更多"鹰"派信号，毕竟在连续降息后， 美联储的政策空间也已经愈发有限，且快速降息使得短期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is focusing on electric and intelligent transformation, leveraging partnerships with Huawei for smart technology integration. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 189.6 billion, 209.5 billion, and 233.5 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 6.29 billion, 8.33 billion, and 10.51 billion yuan [8]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 3 million vehicles in 2025, with 1 million of those being electric vehicles. New models such as the Deep Blue L06 and others are expected to contribute to this growth [8]. - The establishment of a robotics company marks the company's entry into the embodied intelligence and robotics sector, with a strategic framework of "1+N+X" to cover various product forms and integrate the automotive supply chain [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 159.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 189.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase [2][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 6.29 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 14.1%, before recovering to 8.33 billion yuan in 2026 and 10.51 billion yuan in 2027 [2][18]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.06 yuan by 2027 [2][18]. Sales Performance - In November, the company reported wholesale sales of 284,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Cumulative sales from January to November reached 2.658 million vehicles, up 9.3% year-on-year [8]. - The company's self-owned brand sales in November were 244,000 vehicles, reflecting a 5.8% increase year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales rose by 23.3% year-on-year [8].