策略配置 2025 年 4 月 16 日 首席策评（第六期） 加强市场信心，牢筑经济韧性 证券分析师 | 魏伟 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060513060001 | | | BOT313 | | | WEIWEI170@pingan.com.cn | | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060516070001 | | | CHENXIAO397@pingan.com.cn | | 郝思婧 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060521070001 | | | HAOSIJING374@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 策 略 报 告 策 略 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年开年一个多季度的时间，A 股市场的表现可谓一波三折，在外部 冲击不断出现的过程中，中国资本市场表现出了不同于过往的韧性。同时 刚刚公布的一季度经济数据也显示，中国一季度经济增长实现"开门红"， 产需两端均有恢复，社零、投资等数据均较去年有所回升。面对当前已经 出现的中美关税博弈，资本市场需要进一步加强信心，去真正展现中国经 济转型升级的成果。 从一季度的经济数 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][28] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in China has significant development potential, with a focus on promoting the construction of "good houses" to stabilize and improve the market [3][20] - The government is expected to enhance policies regarding the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing, which will help stimulate housing demand and stabilize the market [3][11] - The current sales scale of residential properties is below the mid-term average, indicating strong underlying housing demand [13][20] - The "good house" market has vast potential, with a projected average annual demand for improved housing between 6.1 trillion to 9.9 trillion yuan [17][21] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight recovery in the housing market, with new home sales in 30 cities down only 2% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.4 percentage point decline in 2024 [4][6] - Major cities experienced a 33% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions [4][8] Policy and Market Support - The government plans to allocate 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment in housing and land acquisition, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the market [11][12] - Emphasis on urban renewal and the transformation of urban villages is expected to further stimulate housing demand [11][12] Housing Demand and Supply - The potential demand for residential properties from 2025 to 2030 is estimated at 8.76 billion square meters, with current sales at 8.1 billion square meters, indicating a shortfall [13][14] - The average annual rigid housing demand is projected at 2.9 billion square meters, while the improvement demand is estimated at 5.9 billion square meters [17][21] Market Trends - The introduction of high-quality housing projects is anticipated to create a price anchor, helping to stabilize the market [22][23] - The proportion of substandard housing remains high, indicating a strong need for improvement and upgrades in the housing stock [20][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [36] Core Viewpoints - The sales performance in the real estate sector continues to recover, with the introduction of quality products aiding in stabilizing the market [5][6] - In March, the national sales area and sales amount of commercial housing were 1.1 million square meters and 1.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, but the decline has narrowed compared to January-February [5] - The average sales price of commercial housing in March was 9,475 yuan per square meter, remaining stable compared to the previous months [5] - The report anticipates a potential year-on-year increase in sales in April due to a low base from the previous year and the entry of quality products into the market [5] - The financing environment for real estate companies remains loose, with domestic loans showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2% in March, marking a positive shift [6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first quarter, the national sales area and sales amount showed a year-on-year decline of 3% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a continued recovery trend [5] - The sales performance in March indicates a narrowing decline, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [5] Investment and Construction - In March, real estate investment was 918.4 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, while new construction and completion rates also showed a decline but at a reduced rate compared to earlier months [6] - The land transaction premium rate reached 13.2%, the highest since June 2021, indicating a positive outlook among developers for core city land [6] Financing Environment - The report highlights a continued improvement in the financing environment for real estate companies, with a year-on-year decrease in funds available to developers of 3.9% in March, consistent with earlier months [6] - The increase in personal mortgage loans by 0.3% year-on-year in March further supports the recovery narrative [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [6] - It also recommends attention to companies undergoing valuation recovery, such as New Town Holdings and Vanke A [6]

行 业 报 告 行业点评 销售延续修复，融资持续宽松 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业深度报告*房地产*新一轮产品迭代 周期已来，"好房子"助力止跌回稳*强于大市 20250416 【平安证券】行业点评*房地产*销售表现优于投资， 关注"好房子"入市去化*强于大市20250317 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn 事项： 国家统计局公布2025年1-3月全国房地产开发投资及销售数据，其中投资额2 万亿元，同比下降9.9%；房屋施工61.4亿平米，同比下降9.5%；新开工1.3亿 平米，同比下降24.4%；竣工1.3亿平米，同比下降14.3%；新建商品房销售面 积2.2亿平米，同比下降3%；销售额2.1万亿元，同比下降2.1%；待售面积7.9 亿平米，同比增长5.1%。房企到位资金2.5万亿元，同比下降3.7%。 平安观点： 房地产 2025年04月16日 行 业 点 评 研 ...

证券研究报告 行业发展空间仍存，"好房子"市场前景广阔 ——地产杂谈系列之六十三 行业动态跟踪 地产行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 杨 侃 投资咨询资格编号：S1060514080002 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520090003 2025年4月16日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 2025Q1楼市延续修复，整体市场好于预期 得益于政策催化和市场信心修复，2025Q1楼市整体好于预 期。从成交来看，30城新房成交同比降2%，较2024年全年 收窄19.4pct；10大城市二手房成交同比增长33%。从房价 走势来看，根据国家统计局数据，一二线城市新房价格环 比自2024年末以来逐步止跌回稳。 2025Q1新房成交降幅大幅收窄 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2024/1 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 30城新房成交套数（万套） 同比 一二线城市新房价格逐步止跌回稳 -1.0% -0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2024/1 2024/3 2024 ...

计算机 公 司 报 告 2025年04月16日 达梦数据(688692.SH) 2024年业绩表现良好，产品生态齐发力助推公司发展 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:347元 行情走势图 证券分析师 事项： 公司发布2024年年报。2024年，公司实现营业收入10.44亿元，同比增长 31.49%；实现归母净利润3.62亿元，同比增长22.22%；实现扣非归母净利润 3.41亿元，同比增长24.14%。 平安观点： 券 主要数据 行业 计算机 公司网址 www.dameng.com 大股东/持股 中国软件与技术服务股份有限公 司/18.91% 实际控制人 冯裕才 总股本(百万股) 76 流通A股(百万股) 15 流通B/H股(百万股) 总市值(亿元) 264 流通A股市值(亿元) 53 每股净资产(元) 42.60 资产负债率(%) 13.8 闫磊 投资咨询资格编号 S1060517070006 YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 黄韦涵 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523070003 司 年 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 研究助理 | 王佳一 | 一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - A new round of residential product iteration is underway, with "Fourth Generation Housing" leading the stabilization of prices. The concept of "Good Housing" has been included in the government work report for the first time in 2025, with specific construction standards defined by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [3][11]. - The potential for improvement in housing demand is accelerating, with an estimated average annual improvement demand of 590 million square meters from 2025 to 2030, corresponding to a market value of approximately 8 trillion yuan [3][38]. - Historical reviews of the automotive and smartphone industries indicate that product iterations can stabilize demand and improve profitability, suggesting similar trends may occur in the housing market [3][6]. Summary by Sections New Round of Residential Product Iteration - The introduction of "Fourth Generation Housing" is expected to stabilize prices and create a pricing benchmark in the market. This is crucial as the market has been experiencing a downward price spiral due to a lack of price anchors [3][27]. - The government has emphasized the need for high-quality housing, shifting the focus from mere availability to quality, safety, comfort, and sustainability [11][13]. Acceleration of Improvement Demand - The report estimates that the average annual improvement demand will increase by 60.8% to 941 million square meters from previous estimates, driven by the promotion of "Good Housing" [3][41]. - The current market conditions indicate that the top 30 real estate companies' sales only account for 27.5% of the projected improvement demand, highlighting significant growth potential for quality real estate firms [3][6]. Historical Review and Comparison - The report draws parallels between the housing market and the automotive/smartphone industries, suggesting that product iterations can lead to market restructuring and improved sales stability [3][6]. - The report notes that while the costs of Fourth Generation Housing may be higher, the potential for higher profit margins exists due to increased product value and shorter return cycles [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate companies with low historical burdens, optimized inventory structures, and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and Greentown China [3][6]. - It also recommends monitoring companies in related sectors, including brokerage and property management, which may benefit from the ongoing market changes [3][6].

公 司 报 告 建材 2025年04月16日 伟星新材(002372.SZ) 多因素致业绩下滑，收入端保持韧性 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:11.72元 相关研究报告 【平安证券】伟星新材（002372.SZ）*季报点评*业 绩仍具韧性，毛利率维持高位*推荐20241030 【平安证券】伟星新材（002372.SZ）*半年报点评* 投资收益减少拖累业绩，毛利率同比改善*推荐 20240825 证券分析师 事项： 公司公布2024年年报，全年实现营收62.7亿元，同比降1.8%，归母净利润9.5 亿元，同比降33.4%；其中四季度营收24.9亿元，同比降5.3%，归母净利润 3.3亿元，同比降41.1%。公司拟每10股派发现金红利5元（含税）。 平安观点： 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 行情走势图 郑南宏 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521120001 ZHENGNANHONG873@pingan.com.cn 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | ...

其 他 报 告 2025年04月16日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3268 | 0.15 | -3.11 | | 深证成份指数 | 9858 | -0.27 | -5.13 | | 沪深300指数 | 3761 | 0.06 | -2.87 | | 创业板指数 | 1930 | -0.13 | -6.73 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.03 | 0.34 | | 上证基金指数 | 6727 | -0.17 | -3.08 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 21466 | 0.23 | -8.47 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 7983 | 0.21 | -7.35 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 19858 | 1.77 | -8.31 | | 道琼斯指数 | 40369 | -0.38 | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercialization of nuclear medicine is accelerating, with significant growth in diagnostic nuclear drugs and the potential for domestic nuclear drugs to reach a commercialization inflection point [3][17]. - The report highlights the successful commercialization of Pluvicto and Lutathera, which are expected to generate substantial revenues, with Pluvicto projected to exceed $5 billion in peak sales [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the similarities between Radioligand Therapy (RDC) and Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC), suggesting that RDC could replicate the success of ADC in the market [3][22]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Overseas Nuclear Drug Rapid Growth, Domestic Commercialization Period - Overseas nuclear drugs are experiencing rapid commercialization, with Pluvicto achieving $1.392 billion in revenue in 2024, a 42% increase, and Lutathera generating $724 million, a 20% increase [3][12]. - The combined revenue from these two drugs for Novartis reached $2.116 billion, indicating the ongoing value realization of nuclear drugs [3][12]. - The report notes that the domestic nuclear drug market is set to expand significantly, with five new nuclear drugs approved since 2020, including Yttrium-90 microspheres from Yuan Da Pharmaceutical, which is expected to generate nearly HKD 500 million in revenue in 2024, a growth rate exceeding 140% [3][20]. Part 2: RDC Expected to Replicate ADC Success Path - RDC shares structural and mechanistic similarities with ADC, consisting of a targeting ligand, a linker, and a radioactive nuclide [3][22]. - The report outlines that both RDC and ADC have followed similar validation timelines, with ADC gaining market traction after the success of Enhertu, while RDC is now gaining attention following the success of Pluvicto [3][22]. - The market for new nuclear drugs is projected to reach approximately $4-5 billion in 2024, comparable to the ADC market size around 2021 [3][22]. Part 3: Domestic Nuclear Drug Pipeline Overview - The report details the current pipeline of domestic nuclear drugs, with three products in the NDA stage, including Novartis's PSMA diagnostic and therapeutic drugs [3][49]. - The leading targets in domestic research remain PSMA, FAP, and SSTR, with companies like Yuan Da Pharmaceutical and Xiantong Pharmaceutical leading in clinical project numbers [3][53]. - The anticipated approval of Novartis's two PSMA-targeted products in Q2 2025 is expected to further stimulate the domestic nuclear medicine market [3][20].