证券研究报告 继续看好权益与小盘、成长风格 ——2月基金配置展望 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 研究助理 2026年2月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 基金配置建议：继续看好权益与小盘、成长风格 2 1月回顾：A股、美股上涨；美债利率上行，国债利率下行；商品价格上涨；美元指数下行，人民币升值。A股春季行情延续，市场活跃度大幅提 升，A股、港股表现亮眼，中盘成长风格基金涨幅最大。美国经济数据表现韧性，美股震荡上涨，美债利率上行。国内央行释放流动性，国债利 率下行，期限利差小幅走阔。在全球流动性宽松与地缘风险等因素驱动下，海内外商品价格上涨，贵金属价格涨幅大幅居前。 2月展望：资产配置的逻辑。股债轮动模型显示，2025年12月私人部门融资增速继续上行，通胀因子低位回升，基本面模型延续经济复苏信号。 我们在1月基金月报《增配权益，看好成长》中建议增配权益资产 ...

证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：截至1月30日，近两周ETF产品涨跌不一。国内主要宽基ETF中，中证500涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，周期主题ETF涨幅最大。近两 周，国内主要宽基ETF中，中证2000ETF资金净流入，沪深300ETF资金大幅净流出。2）近两周，周期、医药、消费ETF资金加速流入，军工、金融地产、科 技ETF资金流入速度放缓，大制造其他、新能源ETF资金转为净流入，红利ETF资金流出速度放缓。债券ETF方面，可转债ETF资金加速净流入，短融ETF资 金转为净流入，政金债、信用债、国债、地方债ETF资金净流出速度放缓。 • 产品结构分布：截至1月30日，近两周市场新成立ETF共19只，发行份额合计109.63亿份，均为股票ETF。相较25年末，商品ETF、行业+红利ETF、QDII-ETF 规模分别上升38.50%、23.19%、6.01%，债券ETF、宽基ETF规模分别下降12.49%、34.99%。 证券分析师 | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI index for January 2026 is 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The manufacturing PMI is at 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - The service sector PMI is 49.5%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points[3] Group 2: Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index increased by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1%, indicating accelerated expansion[3] - The factory price index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 50.6%, marking the first time in 20 months it has exceeded the critical point[3] - The service sector sales price index improved by 0.8 percentage points to 48.9%[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs are at 52.0% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points, influenced by low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival[3] - The construction sector's new orders and business activity expectation indices dropped by 7.3 and 7.6 percentage points, respectively[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - SK Hynix reported record performance in FY25Q4, with revenue reaching 32.8 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 66% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34%. Net profit for the quarter was 15.25 trillion KRW, up 90% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter [4][7]. - The storage cycle is on the rise, driven by sustained high demand from AI, leading to rapid growth in the company's operating performance. For FY2025, the company achieved revenue of 97.1 trillion KRW and operating profit of 47.2 trillion KRW, marking its best performance record [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with ongoing projects in Cheongju, South Korea, and Indiana, USA, to create a global integrated manufacturing system that can quickly adapt to changes in downstream customer demand [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY25Q4, SK Hynix's revenue was 32.8 trillion KRW, with a gross margin of 69%, operating margin of 58%, and net margin of 46% [7]. - The DRAM segment saw a low single-digit growth in bit shipments, with an average selling price (ASP) increasing by over 20%. The sales of HBM doubled year-on-year, significantly contributing to revenue growth [7]. - NAND bit shipments grew approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter, with ASP increasing nearly 30%. The company achieved a historical high in annual sales due to strong demand for eSSD [7]. Market Outlook - The ongoing AI infrastructure development is expected to boost enterprise storage demand, leading to a favorable market environment for the storage industry. The current storage cycle's strength and sustainability are anticipated to exceed the previous cycle [8]. - Companies in the related supply chain are expected to see significant improvements in profitability, with a focus on firms such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% within the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is showing mixed performance as the Spring Festival approaches, with certain sub-sectors like food and beverage, agriculture, and media performing well, while others like light manufacturing and retail are declining [3][7]. - In the food and beverage sector, high-end liquor brands are expected to maintain market share due to strong demand, while the casual dining market is recovering as supply chain conditions stabilize [3]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to benefit from a release of pent-up demand, with leading companies adapting quickly to consumer changes [3]. - The jewelry sector, particularly gold and accessories, presents investment opportunities, focusing on brands with potential market share growth [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Food and Beverage - Alcohol - Major liquor companies are experiencing deeper profit adjustments, but leading brands are expected to gain market share [3]. - Focus on three main lines: high-end liquor, mid-range liquor with national expansion, and local market strongholds [3]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The at-home dining market is expanding, with companies like Guoquan showing strong growth potential [3]. - The restaurant supply chain is stabilizing, with sectors like condiments and frozen foods recovering from previous lows [3]. Social Services - The tourism sector is evolving, with leading companies responding effectively to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is growing steadily, with a focus on companies that adapt quickly to market changes [3]. Apparel and Jewelry - Investment opportunities are seen in the gold and jewelry sector, particularly for brands with room for market share growth [3]. Home Appliances - The air conditioning market is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on value creation rather than just scale [20]. - The electric compressor market is growing rapidly, driven by the expansion of the new energy vehicle sector [20]. Key Company Announcements - Companies like Huaxi Biological and Ruoyu Chen are projecting significant profit increases for 2025, driven by operational efficiency and market expansion [26][28]. - Anta Sports is acquiring a significant stake in PUMA, enhancing its global market position [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the introduction of a national capacity pricing policy for independent energy storage and anticipates a record high in domestic photovoltaic installations in 2025 [1][6] Wind Power - A significant event occurred on January 26, where nine countries signed the North Sea Offshore Wind Investment Agreement, committing to provide planning and investment guarantees for offshore wind projects, aiming for an annual addition of 15GW of offshore wind capacity from 2031 to 2040 [5][9] - The wind power index fell by 3.01% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.09 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM valuation of approximately 28.16 times [4][10] Photovoltaics - In 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to reach a record high of 31.507 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 13.67%, driven by the promotion of the 136 document [5][6] - The report forecasts that the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry will face significant supply-demand pressure and profitability challenges in 2026, with expected new installations between 200-250GW [5][6] Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - The national capacity pricing policy for independent energy storage has been established, allowing independent storage to earn revenue through a combination of capacity pricing and spot market arbitrage [6] - The report recommends investing in domestic and international large-scale storage companies, highlighting firms like Sungrow Power Supply, Huaneng Renewables, and others as having strong competitive advantages [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with competitive advantages in high-efficiency battery technology and those involved in the emerging markets of distributed storage [6] - Specific recommendations include Ningde Times and Penghui Energy in the battery segment, and companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy in the wind power sector [6]

证券研究报告 苹果大中华区表现靓丽， 上海市 "火箭星城"方案发布 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 电子团队 分析师：杨钟 S1060525080001（证券投资咨询） 徐勇 S1060519090004（证券投资咨询） 邮箱： YANGZHONG035@pingan.com.cn XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn 2026年2月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 苹果财报发布，关注产业链新品。苹果公司发布了截至2025年12月27日的2026财年第一季度财务业绩，2026年第一季 度苹果营收达1437.56亿美元，同比增长16%；净利润420.97亿美元，同比增长16%。iPhone作为核心增长引擎，表现 亮眼，营收达852.69亿美元，同比增长23%，占总营收比重为59.3%。服务业务收入达300.13亿美元，同比增长14%； iPad业务收入85.95亿美元，同比增长6%。Mac业务收入83.86亿美元，同比下降7%；可穿戴、家居及配件业务收入 114.93亿美元，同比下降2%。区域市场表现上，大中华区营收为255.26亿美元，同比增长38%；美洲区营收同比增长 11%， ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's broad interest rates have entered a historically low range, leading to significant changes in the financing structure, with a continuous decline in the proportion of indirect financing [3][44] - The trend of "financial disintermediation" is occurring, where savings are moving from banks to non-bank financial institutions, resulting in a shrinking of bank credit and an increase in non-bank deposits [3][48] - The report suggests that the current low interest rate environment is conducive to the development of the capital market, providing ample liquidity and valuation support [3][44] Group 2 - The report draws parallels with international experiences, particularly from the US and Japan, where low interest rates led to significant shifts in banking operations, asset allocation by residents, and market performance [9][27] - In the US, the low interest rate period saw a notable increase in the proportion of stocks and funds in household financial assets, rising from 38.8% in 2011 to 53.9% in 2021 [19] - Japan experienced a similar trend, with the proportion of stocks and funds in household assets increasing by nearly 10 percentage points during its low interest rate period [32] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market is entering a "slow bull" phase, supported by the ongoing financial disintermediation and the expected recovery in industry demand [44][48] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth sectors that benefit from both domestic and external demand, such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][44] - The report also notes that certain quality dividend assets still hold investment value despite the changing market dynamics [3][44]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2025, public fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, a drop of 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Public fiscal expenditure increased by 1.0% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The deficit utilization rate for the first account was 92.5%, which is 9.3 percentage points lower than the average of the past three years[1] Tax Revenue Performance - National tax revenue growth was 0.8%, a decline of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Non-tax revenue fell by 11.3%, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a high base effect from last year[1] - Tax revenue growth ended an 8-month streak of positive growth, dropping 14.3 percentage points to -11.5% in December[1] Fiscal Spending Focus - Spending on science and technology decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year[1] - Expenditure in the livelihood sector grew by 4.5%, slightly down from the previous month but still outpacing overall fiscal expenditure growth[1] - Infrastructure spending saw a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, although it rebounded by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.3%, both down from the previous month by 2.1 and 2.4 percentage points respectively[1] - In December, government fund revenue fell by 11.7%, while expenditure grew by 1.5%, narrowing the gap in growth rates[1] - Revenue from state land use rights dropped by 14.7%, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline compared to 2024[1] Overall Fiscal Outlook - The broad fiscal revenue growth rate was -2.9%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure increased by 3.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The focus of fiscal policy is shifting towards the 2026 "14th Five-Year Plan," with an emphasis on increased spending and coordinated fiscal-financial policies to stimulate domestic demand[1]

中国宏观周报（2026 年 1 月第 5 周） 宏 2026 年 2 月 2 日 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 石油化工价格上涨 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 从高频数据观察，本周部分原材料生产环比恢复，1 月末新房成交企稳回 升，去年同期低基数也有助推。工业品价格指数环比回升，结构分化，石 油化工产品表现强于有色金属及黑色原材料。 1. 工业：本周生产环比分化。1）原材料方面，本周钢铁建材和板材产量提 升，水泥熟料产能利用率、浮法玻璃开工率也有恢复，石油沥青开工率、 钢铁建材表观需求环比回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造 业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工率环比提升，全钢胎开工率环比回 落。据乘联会统计，1 月第一周至第二周，全国纯燃料轻型车同比-85%， 12 月同比-29%；混合动力与插混总体生产同比-65%，12 月同比-26%， 混动插混类汽车生产表现较燃油车 ...