证券研究报告 寻找确定性之锚 ——2025年海外市场中期策略 证券分析师 魏伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001、BOT313 陈骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001、BWH863 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 研究助理 校星 一般从业资格编号：S1060123120037 核心摘要 2025年7月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 • 市场回顾：国际环境更趋复杂，大类资产黄金领涨。2025年上半年，美国政策、全球贸易、地缘政治等多领域不确定性明显增加，尤其特朗普政 府以"美国优先"为中心推进的一系列政策成为扰动全球资本市场的最重要因素之一。在此背景下，上半年全球资产波动加剧，黄金领涨，美元走 弱，权益分化，债市震荡。下半年，在海外环境仍面临多重不确定性因素的背景下，我们试图寻找大类资产配置的确定性之锚。 • 美国市场：特朗普政策发酵，经济软着陆概率较大。1）基本面"软着陆"。下半年美国劳动力市场缓慢降温，失业率上行幅度有限；居民消费受 裁员、关税及需求透支拖累，但居民收入增长能够形成支撑；企业投资意愿有减弱迹象，利润增速有所放缓，但幅度可控。2）通胀下行 ...

Group 1: Insurance Sector - The insurance sector has experienced significant volatility in market performance since 2025, with New China Life leading the sector [2][5][7] - In Q1 2025, listed insurance companies showed a notable decline in net profit growth year-on-year, influenced by market fluctuations and rising interest rates [14][10] - The liability side of the insurance sector is focused on high-quality development, with steady growth in property insurance premiums and improved combined operating ratios (COR) [22][18] - The asset side indicates a preference for high-dividend strategies, as companies may increase allocations to FVOCI high-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [50][47] Group 2: Securities Sector - The securities sector is undergoing deepening capital market reforms, enhancing internal stability and resource allocation [57][58] - Institutional investors are significantly underweight in the securities sector, with a 6.29% underweight compared to the CSI 300 index [62][64] - The top companies in the securities sector are showing robust performance, with a 78% increase in net profit for listed brokers in Q1 2025, indicating that investment income will be a key performance driver for the year [62][58] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in the insurance sector, particularly companies with stable fundamentals and beta elasticity, such as China Pacific Insurance and New China Life [2][3] - For the securities sector, it is recommended to focus on leading brokers like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from high-quality development policies [2][3]

其 他 报 告 2025年07月01日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3444 | 0.59 | 1.91 | | 深证成份指数 | 10465 | 0.83 | 3.73 | | 沪深300指数 | 3936 | 0.37 | 1.95 | | 创业板指数 | 2153 | 1.35 | 5.69 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | 0.04 | 0.02 | | 上证基金指数 | 6939 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24072 | -0.87 | 3.20 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8678 | -0.96 | 2.76 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22256 | -1.44 | 2.42 | | 道琼斯指数 | 43819 | 1.00 | 3.82 | | ...

基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | | 高 | 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 证券研究报告 2025年6月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：近两周ETF产品整体表现较好。主要宽基ETF中，创业板指ETF涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，金融地产行业ETF涨幅最大。近两周， 主要宽基ETF中，中证A500、中证1000、科创50ETF资金净流入，沪深300ETF资金净流出额最大。科技ETF在年初大幅流出后，自3月起转为资金流入，近两 周资金流入速度有所减缓，医药和金融地产ETF资金由净流出转为净流入，军工ETF资金流入速度放缓。债券ETF方面，受债市反弹影响，信用债ETF资金加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the offshore wind power sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the global offshore wind power market is expected to see significant growth, with an anticipated addition of 16GW in 2025, doubling year-on-year. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the offshore wind sector from 2025 to 2034 is projected at 21%, surpassing the previous decade's 10% CAGR [6][12]. - Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific and Latin America are expected to provide substantial opportunities for offshore wind turbine exports, as governments in these regions collaborate with the industry to accelerate development [6][13]. - The report notes a downward trend in energy storage system bidding prices, reflecting increased competition and a more relaxed supply-demand situation in the domestic market [6]. Summary by Sections Offshore Wind Power - The GWEC's report indicates that global offshore wind power installations reached 83GW by the end of 2024, with a forecast of 350GW added by 2034 [11][12]. - China and Europe are expected to continue leading in offshore wind development, although emerging markets will gradually increase their share [13]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant breakthroughs in the offshore wind supply chain and suggests investment opportunities in companies like Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Dongfang Cable [7][18]. Solar Power - The report notes that the solar power sector is facing challenges in improving supply-demand dynamics, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 30.01 [5][32]. - Companies such as Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar are highlighted as potential investment opportunities within the solar sector [7]. Energy Storage and Hydrogen - The report indicates that the average bidding price for 2-hour energy storage systems has reached a historical low of 0.4646 CNY/Wh, reflecting a competitive market environment [6]. - The global energy storage market is projected to add 74.1GW of new capacity in 2024, with China and the U.S. accounting for 75% of this growth [6]. - Investment opportunities in energy storage are identified in companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Deye Technology, which are expanding their presence in non-U.S. markets [7].

其 他 报 告 2025年06月30日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3424 | -0.70 | -0.51 | | 深证成份指数 | 10379 | 0.34 | -1.16 | | 沪深300指数 | 3922 | -0.61 | -0.45 | | 创业板指数 | 2124 | 0.47 | -1.66 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | 0.03 | 0.21 | | 上证基金指数 | 6931 | -0.03 | -0.11 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24284 | -0.17 | -1.52 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8762 | -0.47 | -1.48 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22580 | 0.39 | -0.12 | | 道琼斯指数 | 4381 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" with an expectation that stock performance will exceed market performance by more than 20% within six months [52]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumer finance and enhancing the financial support for consumption, with a focus on structural monetary policy tools [6][14]. - A comprehensive plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance has been announced, aiming to establish a robust inclusive financial system over the next five years [7][18]. - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a more optimistic outlook for the domestic economy, while still acknowledging challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low inflation [21][19]. Summary by Sections Consumer Finance Policy - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, proposing 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and financial supply [6][14]. - The guidelines include a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and pension loans, aimed at 21 national financial institutions and five systemically important city commercial banks [6][16]. Inclusive Finance Development - The "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for Inclusive Finance" was released on June 26, outlining four basic principles and three key tasks for the next five years [7][18]. - The plan emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive inclusive financial system, enhancing the service capabilities of financial institutions, and improving credit support for small and micro enterprises [7][18]. Monetary Policy Meeting - The second quarter monetary policy meeting on June 23 noted an improved economic outlook, with a focus on maintaining an "appropriately loose" monetary policy while addressing challenges such as low domestic demand [21][19]. - The meeting emphasized the need for flexible policy implementation and support for key sectors through structural monetary policy tools [21][19]. Industry Data - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, total assets of financial institutions grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with the banking sector's assets increasing by 6.8% [22][23]. - Weekly stock trading volume averaged 1.80 trillion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% increase compared to the previous week [41][40]. - The ten-year government bond yield rose by 0.78 basis points, indicating a slight increase in interest rates [47][46].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [29] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that liquor companies are keen on innovation, focusing on low-alcohol, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digital products. For instance, Luzhou Laojiao has developed a 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and is testing 16-degree and 6-degree variants [6][4] - The beverage sector is experiencing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to diverse functional demands. Companies are launching new products like functional drinks, electrolyte water, and sugar-free tea to meet these needs [6][4] - The snack industry is identified as a strong growth driver, catering to both emotional value and cost-effectiveness, with manufacturers introducing healthier options like konjac and quail eggs [6][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has seen a cumulative decline of 0.35% this week, with notable stock performances including *ST Yanshi (+2.66%) and Yili Te (+1.30%) [6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation in the liquor sector to meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [6][4] Food Industry - The food index has increased by 1.48% this week, with top performers like Jindawei (+17.54%) and Huanlejia (+13.91%) [6][8] - The report reiterates investment opportunities in beverages and snacks, driven by differentiated consumer demands and health trends [6][4] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye for their strong performance outlook [28]

Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in risk appetite both domestically and internationally, leading to a rebound in the A-share market. The S&P 500 rose by 3.4%, while Brent crude oil prices fell by 11.5% [2] - The report highlights that the domestic financial policies are aimed at boosting consumption, with major indices in the A-share market showing positive performance, including a 1.9% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 5.7% increase in the ChiNext Index [2] - The report suggests that the short-term market outlook is positive due to the decrease in geopolitical risks and supportive domestic policies, with a focus on sectors with higher profit certainty such as finance, technology, and consumer sectors [2] Recent Developments - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a shift in profitability trends [3][4] - The report outlines various financial policies aimed at enhancing and expanding consumption, including a focus on supporting consumer capacity and optimizing financial services [5][6] Market Performance - The report notes that 28 out of 31 sectors in the A-share market achieved positive returns, with the computer, defense, and non-bank financial sectors leading with increases of 7.7%, 6.9%, and 6.7% respectively [15] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a 22.36% increase week-on-week [15][17] Sector Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors benefiting from financial reforms and high dividend yields, as well as those experiencing positive trends in technology and consumer demand [2] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include finance (stablecoins/non-bank), technology (TMT/defense/electric equipment/innovative pharmaceuticals), and consumer sectors supported by domestic demand policies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the transformation of consumer demand from "pleasing others" to "self-pleasing," indicating a structural change in consumption patterns that favors new consumption trends over traditional ones [4][9] - The report identifies three main lines of investment focus: new demand, new products, and new channels, suggesting that companies that can quickly adapt to these changes will outperform in the market [4][6] - The report highlights the government's ongoing efforts to stimulate consumption through various policies, which are expected to enhance consumer confidence and income, leading to a gradual recovery in the consumption market [7][8] Group 2 - New demand is characterized by a focus on cost-effectiveness, emotional value, and health consciousness among consumers, driven by generational differences in spending intentions [4][14][23] - The report notes that health-oriented products are gaining traction, with companies innovating in healthy snacks and beverages to meet rising consumer expectations for health benefits [28][36] - The emergence of new sales channels, such as bulk snack stores and membership-based supermarkets, is reshaping the retail landscape, allowing companies to better meet consumer demands for quality and convenience [57][63] Group 3 - The report discusses the rapid growth of the bulk snack store sector, which has become the leading channel for snack sales in China, reflecting a shift in consumer shopping habits [57][59] - Membership-based supermarkets are also highlighted as a growing trend, providing high-quality products at competitive prices, which appeals to consumers seeking value [63][66] - Traditional supermarkets are undergoing significant transformations to adapt to the competitive landscape, with successful case studies demonstrating substantial sales increases following strategic adjustments [69][70]