请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 阿里云发布多项AI创新成果， 我国AI产业发展势头良好 计算机行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所计算机团队 分析师： 闫磊 S1060517070006（证券投资咨询）YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 黄韦涵 S1060523070003（证券投资咨询）HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 2025年9月29日 核心摘要 行业要闻及简评：1）阿里云发布多项AI创新成果，我国AI产业发展势头良好。9月24日，2025云栖大会在浙江省杭州市云栖小镇举行。 阿里云在2025云栖大会发布多项AI创新成果，Qwen3-Max大语言模型全球领先。我国国产大模型持续迭代，能力持续提升。阿里云宣布正 在积极推进三年3800亿的AI基础设施建设计划，并将会持续追加更大的投入。另外，我国AI产业正加强生态合作，DeepSeek-V3.1与国产 AI芯片的协同进一步加深。我国AI产业发展势头良好。2）英伟达和OpenAI宣布达成合作，全球AI产业生态合作加深。当地时间周一（9 月22日），英伟达和OpenAI宣布达成合作，包括建设庞大数据中心计划，以及英 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced high-level fluctuations before the holiday, with technology and large-cap defensive styles showing phase-specific performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index increased by 1.96% and 6.47%, respectively. The small-cap index saw deeper declines [2][17] - The U.S. market faced downward pressure due to concerns over high valuations, with the Nasdaq dropping by 1.8% over the week. The core PCE price index in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and indicating stable inflation [2][3] - Domestic industrial profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4% in August. The equipment manufacturing sector remained a key support, with double-digit profit growth in industries such as railways, aerospace, and electrical machinery [2][5] Recent Dynamics - Industrial profits turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% from January to August, driven by policy effects and low base effects. The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase, particularly in specialized equipment and electronics [3][4] - The government has rolled out new growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and construction materials, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel sector [5][6] Market Performance - In the last week, the A-share market saw most sectors rise, with the semiconductor silicon wafer index leading with a 13.1% increase. The power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors also performed well, with gains of 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51%, respectively [13][17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market remained above 2 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation despite fluctuations [2][17] Policy Tracking - Recent policies include the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Plan" and measures to promote service exports, which aim to enhance the competitiveness of key sectors and support economic recovery [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The launch of the Li i6 at a price of 249,800 yuan, with promotional benefits during the initial sales period, is expected to enhance the company's position in the home electric vehicle market [4][7]. - The i6's pricing and features are competitive compared to similar models like Xiaomi YU7 and Tesla Model Y, potentially opening new growth opportunities in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan segment [7][9]. - Anticipation for the upcoming upgrades to the L series, which is currently under pressure, is noted, with expectations for improved product competitiveness [7][8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5 billion, 9.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 123.85 billion yuan in 2023, 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, 127.79 billion yuan in 2025, 175.77 billion yuan in 2026, and 212.56 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-over-year growth rate of 173.5% in 2023 and a decline of 11.5% in 2025 [6][11]. - Net profit estimates are 11.7 billion yuan for 2023, 8.03 billion yuan for 2024, 4.99 billion yuan for 2025, 9.5 billion yuan for 2026, and 13.37 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a significant increase in 2023 but a decline in the following years [6][11]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 20% to 22% over the forecast period [6][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 6.6% in 2025 before recovering to 13.5% by 2027 [6][12].

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, with Trump canceling a meeting with Democratic leaders and the House planning to reconvene only on October 1[1] - The U.S. has confirmed a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts starting August 1, and new tariffs on various imports, including 50% on kitchen cabinets and 100% on patented drugs, effective October 1[1] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%[1] - Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, and well below the market expectation of 235,000[1] Group 2: Global Economic Indicators - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, below the neutral mark, while services PMI rose to 51.4, exceeding expectations[1] - Japan's Tokyo core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, indicating stable inflation pressure[5] - The CME FedWatch data shows an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with an average expected policy rate of 3.59% by the end of 2025[1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Global stock market optimism has decreased, with precious metal prices rising due to the increased risk of a U.S. government shutdown[10] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.3%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropped by 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively[12] - The dollar index rose by 0.55%, closing at 98.19, while major non-U.S. currencies declined against the dollar[19]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The mid-term upward momentum in the market is expected to continue, with the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session discussing the "14th Five-Year Plan" serving as an important policy window[3] - Investment recommendations focus on sectors benefiting from policy dynamics and industrial prosperity, particularly technology growth (AI, semiconductors, consumer electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals), advanced manufacturing (new energy), and cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, building materials)[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - Gannee Pharmaceutical (603087.SH): Steady growth in core business with innovative products expanding overseas, total market value of ¥476 billion, PE of 51.7, PB of 4.4[4] - Kailai Pharmaceutical (002821.SZ): Industry recovery with new business driving growth, total market value of ¥397 billion, PE of 37.7, PB of 2.4[13] - Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH): Major supplier of consumer batteries, benefiting from partnerships with brands like Apple and Huawei, total market value of ¥274 billion, PE of 61.4, PB of 4.0[20] - Tuojing Technology (688072.SH): Leading in film deposition equipment with significant growth potential, total market value of ¥697 billion, PE of 106.6, PB of 12.9[24] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH): Leading domestic computing power enterprise with substantial growth in H1 2025, total market value of ¥6,227 billion, PE of 273.2, PB of 29.5[32] - Shenxinfeng (300454.SZ): Cloud computing driving revenue growth, achieved profitability in Q2, total market value of ¥521 billion, PE of 92.8, PB of 5.8[37] - Penghui Energy (300438.SZ): Leading position in small-scale energy storage cells, total market value of ¥184 billion, PE of -48.1, PB of 3.7[44] - Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH): High demand in offshore wind power, total market value of ¥321 billion, PE of 108.6, PB of 1.2[52] - Xingye Silver Tin (000426.SZ): Strong resource positioning with expected silver price recovery, total market value of ¥482 billion, PE of 33.4, PB of 5.7[55] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH): Rapid overseas business development with expected domestic price recovery, total market value of ¥332 billion, PE of 13.0, PB of 1.2[62]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is moving towards a harvest period with multiple licensing collaborations validating its platform value [1]. - The company achieved its first profit in 2024, driven by significant licensing income and a strong focus on R&D [6][22]. - The company has a robust pipeline of HER2-targeted products, with key candidates in late-stage clinical trials [6][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Technical Innovation as a Driver - The company focuses on antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) and bispecific antibodies, leveraging core technologies for differentiated cancer immunotherapy [11]. - The management team has extensive experience in research and development, ensuring innovation and operational efficiency [11][19]. - The company has secured multiple high-value licensing agreements, enhancing its platform and pipeline value [19][20]. 2. HER2-targeted Product Strategy - The company has three HER2-targeted products, including KN026 (HER2 bispecific antibody) and JSKN003 (HER2 bispecific ADC), positioned for various cancer indications [25][30]. - KN026 is expected to submit a domestic application for 2L+ HER2-positive gastric cancer by 2025, with promising clinical data [30][34]. - JSKN003 has a commercial collaboration with a partner, with a total transaction value of 30.8 billion RMB [39]. 3. JSKN016 (TROP2/HER3 ADC) Development - JSKN016 is being explored for both monotherapy and combination treatments, targeting high-expression TROP2 and HER3 in various tumors [7][25]. - The drug is in clinical phase 2, focusing on unmet needs in triple-negative breast cancer and EGFR-TKI resistant non-small cell lung cancer [7][25]. 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company achieved a revenue of 6.4 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 192.6%, with a profit of 1.66 billion RMB [22][23]. - The R&D expenditure for 2024 was maintained at 4.04 billion RMB, ensuring continued investment in clinical development [22][24]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.58 billion RMB, 4.90 billion RMB, and 3.98 billion RMB respectively [6][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi's YU7 has significant implications for the automotive industry, particularly in the high-end electric vehicle segment [2][3] - Xiaomi's automotive business is expected to achieve profitability by the second half of 2025, with a rapid growth trajectory that could see it surpass its smartphone business in revenue by 2026 [2][3] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a focus on operational quality and resource efficiency among automakers [2][3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Insights from Xiaomi YU7 - YU7 targets a younger demographic, with an average user age of 33 years and a significant portion of users being under 35 [9][10] - The primary selling point for YU7 is its design, which resonates strongly with consumers, alongside brand recognition [12][15] - The order volume for YU7 is unprecedented, with over 240,000 units locked within 18 hours of launch, indicating a strong market demand [20][21] - YU7 is expected to impact competitors in the same price range significantly, particularly brands like Tesla and other emerging electric vehicle manufacturers [22][23] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Xiaomi Group due to its competitive edge in the automotive sector, particularly in high-end electric vehicles [2][3] - Other recommended companies include Great Wall Motors, Seres, and Li Auto, which are well-positioned in the high-end market [2][3] Section 3: Xiaomi's Automotive Business Potential - Xiaomi aims to become one of the top five global automotive manufacturers, targeting over 1.2 trillion RMB in revenue, which corresponds to sales of over 600,000 vehicles annually [51][52] - The automotive business is projected to exceed the smartphone business in revenue by 2026, with significant growth expected in the coming years [46][47] Section 4: Strategic Shifts in the Automotive Industry - Automakers are increasingly focusing on operational quality and efficiency rather than just scale expansion, with many companies merging brands and consolidating resources [2][3] - The report highlights a trend towards simplifying vehicle SKUs to reduce consumer choice complexity, which is expected to become a standard in the industry [31][32] Section 5: Xiaomi's Profitability and Market Position - Xiaomi's automotive division is on track to achieve profitability within two years of launching its first model, with a significant reduction in losses reported [39][41] - The company has a strong financing capability, with its market value increasing significantly, allowing it to attract more investment compared to other new energy vehicle manufacturers [44]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the silver and tin industry, with a strong resource base and ongoing expansion projects that are expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [1][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Growth of Silver and Tin Leader - The company has a rich resource base in silver and tin, with significant mining assets acquired over the years, including Silverman Mining and Qianjinda Mining [9]. - The company has seen substantial revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [2][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.53 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.8% [2][15]. 2. Quality Resources Flourishing, Strengthening Competitive Edge - The company is actively expanding its silver and tin resource layout, with ongoing projects such as the expansion of Silverman Mining, which will increase its processing capacity from 1.65 million tons/year to 2.97 million tons/year [3][33]. - The acquisition of Yubang Mining, ranked as the fifth largest single silver mine globally, is expected to enhance the company's silver resource reserves significantly [3][34]. - The company is also set to acquire Atlantic Tin, which will further bolster its tin resource base and international presence [3][43]. 3. Silver: Favorable Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply has been slightly declining, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.5% from 2016 to 2024, while industrial demand is expected to grow, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and AI applications [3][5]. - The report anticipates a continued shortage in global silver supply, which may lead to price increases [3][5]. 4. Tin: Scarcity of Resources and Demand Elasticity - The global tin production is projected to decrease, with a forecast of 300,000 tons in 2024, down 1.6% year-on-year [5]. - The demand for tin is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of the AI industry, which will drive the need for semiconductor materials [5]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.50 billion yuan, 6.56 billion yuan, and 7.65 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 2.03 billion yuan, 2.49 billion yuan, and 2.97 billion yuan respectively [2][5]. - The report emphasizes that the company's ongoing resource expansion and favorable market conditions for silver and tin will likely lead to accelerated earnings growth [5].

Group 1: Overall Performance - The overall performance of Hong Kong stocks in H1 2025 shows positive profit growth, with leading companies showing a stronger willingness to expand production. The revenue growth rates for major indices are as follows: Hang Seng Index at 1.98%, Hang Seng Tech at 15.98%, and China Enterprises Index at 2.42%, all showing improvements compared to H2 2024 [6][10] - The return on equity (ROE) for the Hang Seng Index slightly decreased to 7.9%, while net profit margin and leverage levels increased, indicating overall stable operational efficiency [8][9] Group 2: Industry Comparison - The AI and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors continue to lead in high prosperity, while real estate and certain cyclical industries remain under pressure. The healthcare and technology sectors show strong profit growth, with healthcare at 51.7% and technology at 31.5% [12][14] - Non-essential consumption saw a decline in profit growth, primarily due to negative performance in the automotive sector, while essential consumption profits increased, particularly in non-alcoholic beverages, which grew by 75.4% [17][18] Group 3: Performance Outlook - Profitability in Hong Kong stocks is expected to rebound in H2 2025, with most industries likely to see marginal improvements. Bloomberg consensus forecasts indicate a recovery in profit growth for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [3][12] - High-prosperity industries such as healthcare, technology, and new consumption are anticipated to continue delivering strong performance, supported by favorable domestic policies and increased foreign capital inflows [3][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the biopharmaceutical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The growth of healthcare expenses, which reached 9.06 trillion yuan in 2023, is outpacing GDP growth, indicating that commercial health insurance may provide a solution to the pressures faced by the medical insurance system [3][15] - The commercial health insurance sector is expected to grow significantly, with premiums projected to reach 97.74 billion yuan by 2024, driven by low penetration rates and the need for additional funding sources [20][24] - Policies are increasingly supportive of commercial health insurance, particularly in relation to innovative drugs, which are now being included in the commercial health insurance directory [71][76] Summary by Sections Part 1: Healthcare Financing System - The healthcare financing system in China consists of government, social, and personal contributions, with social contributions being the main driver for future growth [10][15] Part 2: Growth of Health Insurance - The commercial health insurance market is expected to fill a significant funding gap, with an estimated shortfall of over 1.7 trillion yuan by 2030 [21][22] - Medical insurance is the primary source of compensation within commercial health insurance, with a compensation rate of approximately 68.79% in 2022 [27][31] Part 3: Core Products of Medical Insurance - The report highlights the importance of medical insurance as a key focus area, noting that it directly compensates for medical expenses, unlike critical illness insurance [31][35] Part 4: Policy Support for Health Insurance Development - A series of policies since 2009 have aimed to promote the development of commercial health insurance, with specific targets for market size and coverage [71][72] Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies with rich pipelines, DTP pharmacies, and companies in the TPA industry, as well as innovative medical devices and high-end medical service providers [77]