证券研究报告 策略周报：扩内需与反内卷同步推进 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 蒋炯楠 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年7月20日 1 ※ 核心观点|扩内需与反内卷同步推进 2 • 上周A股延续上行，新兴科技表现居前。海外方面，美国最新零售和就业数据表现较好，虽然关税风险仍有反复，但市场更多交易基本面韧 性，美元指数连续第二周反弹至98.5，美股标普500和纳指上涨0.6%、1.5%。国内方面，Q2经济数据韧性，产业政策积极信号持续释放， A股市场热度延续，上证指数和创业板指上涨0.69%、3.17%；结构上，景气向好的新兴科技板块表现居前，通信行业领涨（7.56%），其 次是医药生物、汽车、机械设备、国防军工、电子、计算机（涨幅在2%-4%），光模块、创新药、稀土概念指数领涨（涨幅在8%-10%）。 • 海外方面，美国6月CPI符合预期、居民消费韧性；特朗普关税风险仍有反复，但市场反应钝化。基本面方面，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%， 前值2.4%，核心CPI同比上 ...

有色金属 2025 年 7 月 20 日 有色金属周报 有色等行业稳增长方案即将出台，产业格局有望加速优化 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 25/07 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告尾页的声明内容。 告 行 业 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 贵金属-黄金：美联储降息预期扰动消退，看好黄金中长期走势。截 至 7.18，COMEX 金主力合约环比下跌 0.44%至 3355.5 美元/盎司。 SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比减少 0.4%为 943.6 吨。前期美联储降息预期边 际回落对金价带来的压力逐步消退，短期来看，美元指数走低背景 下，金价预计仍将震荡偏强。世界黄金协会报告显示，受 6 月份强劲 表现 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][12]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the second quarter, with diversified brand advantages becoming evident. The retail sales of the Anta brand achieved low single-digit growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, while FILA brand sales saw mid-single-digit growth. Other brands (excluding those added after April 1, 2025) experienced a remarkable year-on-year growth of 50-55% in Q2 and 60-65% in H1 2025 [3][6]. - The report expresses optimism about the company's performance in the sports and outdoor apparel sector in 2025, anticipating continued market share expansion due to the broadening brand matrix. However, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards due to uncertainties in the consumer market [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 62,356 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. The net profit was 10,236 million, reflecting a 34.9% increase. The gross margin stood at 62.6% and the net margin at 16.4% [5][10]. - Projections for 2024A to 2027E indicate a steady increase in revenue, with expected figures of 70,826 million (2024A), 80,918 million (2025E), 91,792 million (2026E), and 104,649 million (2027E). The net profit is projected to be 15,596 million (2024A), 13,412 million (2025E), 15,045 million (2026E), and 17,281 million (2027E) [5][10]. Profitability Ratios - The report highlights a gross margin of 62.2% for 2024A, expected to rise to 63.5% by 2026E. The net profit margin is projected to be 22.0% in 2024A, decreasing to 16.5% by 2027E [11]. - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 19.6% for 2025E and 2026E [11]. Balance Sheet - The total assets are projected to grow from 112,615 million in 2024A to 142,268 million by 2027E. The company maintains a healthy liquidity position with a current ratio of 2.1 in 2024A, expected to improve to 2.8 by 2027E [9][11]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 40.7% in 2024A to 32.7% by 2027E, indicating improved financial stability [11]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is expected to be 16,741 million in 2024A, with a gradual increase to 21,325 million by 2027E. Investment activities are projected to have negative cash flow, indicating ongoing investments in growth [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (expected to perform within ±5% of the CSI 300 Index in the next 6 months) [100] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The essence of the bank's net interest margin is the return on capital investment, with a cycle of 5 - 9 years. The main influencing factors are technology, capital, labor, corporate organizational efficiency, and the whole - society distribution relationship. In the long run, improving social distribution relations, increasing the KTI value - added ratio, and enhancing the unit output of labor through education to increase the proportion of high - value - added KTI services are effective. Monetary policy can significantly improve the real - economy's capital cost in the short cycle and boost the bank's net interest margin, but it won't affect the long - term trend [3][70]. - Economic short - cycle fluctuations can temporarily increase the bank's net interest margin under the following conditions: continuous 200BP reduction in policy rates, bottoming - out and recovery of both the real - estate and export - manufacturing sectors, and continuous improvement of leading indicators such as PPI turning positive and M1 year - on - year growth exceeding nominal GDP growth and maintaining this for at least one quarter [70][72][73] - Since 2020, the policy rate has been transmitted efficiently to the bank's asset side but poorly to the liability side, mainly due to the rigidity of deposit prices. To achieve "neutral" interest rate cuts, it is necessary to reduce the proportion of time deposits, crack down on high - interest deposit - soliciting, formulate a scientific loan - scale assessment mechanism, and maintain a necessary interest - rate cut rhythm [4][80][91] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 What is the Essence of the Bank's Net Interest Margin? - The net interest margin is the ratio of a bank's net interest income to all interest - earning assets, a key indicator of a bank's profitability. It can be regarded as the return on debt - type capital investment. In a country, the trends of equity and debt investment returns are consistent [13] - The yields of Chinese and US government bonds are basically synchronized with ROIC, reflecting a country's capital return. Currently, China's government bond pricing matches the fundamentals, while US government bonds are attractively valued relative to the fundamentals [17] 3.2 What Factors Are Related to the Bank's Net Interest Margin? 3.2.1 Cycle - The cycle of the bank's net interest margin may be 5 - 9 years. Since 2006 in China and 1992 in the US, the net interest margin has been in a long - term downward trend. The net interest margin cycle in the US is about 6 - 9 years, and in China, it is about 5 - 7 years. In the past 20 years, China's net interest margin has rebounded in 2004 - 2008, mid - 2009 to Q3 2012, and Q1 2017 to 2019 [20][24] 3.2.2 Long - term Influencing Factors - The bank's net interest margin is related to technology, labor combination, and the whole - society organizational efficiency. China has an advantage in KTI manufacturing, while the US leads in KTI services. To improve the social investment return rate, it is necessary to increase the proportion of the KTI industry and the share of service - sector KTI [25][31] 3.2.3 Relationship with Fundamentals - Empirically, the correlation between the net interest margin and economic fundamentals is not significant. Economic expansion does not necessarily lead to an increase in the net interest margin. In the economic crisis, macro - policies can drive the net interest margin to bottom out and rebound [32][37] 3.2.4 Relationship with Policy Rates - In the US, before 2015, the net interest margin was often opposite to the policy rate; after 2015, they were in the same direction. In China, the net interest margin and the policy rate generally move in the same direction, but due to policy intensity and structural factors, the net interest margin has been difficult to rebound since 2020 [40][43][47] 3.2.5 Relationship with Prices - In the US, the net interest margin is inversely related to CPI and leads CPI by 2 - 4 quarters. In China, the net interest margin is positively related to PPI and has a certain leading effect. Since 2020, the decoupling of the net interest margin and PPI is due to supply - side impacts, uneven profit improvement among different sectors, and structural factors affecting the transmission of bank liability prices [48][50][55] 3.2.6 Impact of Land Finance and Export - Manufacturing Chains - In China, real - estate investment and export - manufacturing investment are positively correlated with the net interest margin. Real - estate investment and export - manufacturing investment can lead the net interest margin, but since 2020, due to real - estate de - leveraging, the net interest margin has continued to decline [65] 3.2.7 Relationship with M1 - M1 is an early leading indicator of the economy and may have a leading effect on the bank's net interest margin. However, the rebound of M1 from 2022 - 2023 did not achieve this effect. The absolute level of M1 year - on - year growth is more important, and whether M1 can exceed nominal GDP is a key indicator [69] 3.3 How to Achieve "Neutral" Interest Rate Cuts? - Since 2020, the policy rate has been transmitted efficiently to the bank's asset side but poorly to the liability side, mainly due to the rigidity of deposit prices. The reasons for deposit price rigidity include the trend of time - deposit conversion, price - transmission blockages, and the more rigid deposit costs of large - scale banks [80][81][90] - To achieve "neutral" interest rate cuts, it is necessary to reduce the proportion of time deposits, crack down on high - interest deposit - soliciting, formulate a scientific loan - scale assessment mechanism, and maintain a necessary interest - rate cut rhythm [91][92]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [1][23] Core Viewpoints - The demand for medical equipment bidding continues to be strong, with a significant recovery in procurement activities expected to improve company financial performance [3][5] - The overall market size for medical device bidding in China exceeded 80 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of over 60% [3][11] - Major provinces driving the procurement include Liaoning, Hainan, Ningxia, Fujian, and Shanxi, with imaging equipment being the core focus of upgrades [3][5] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The procurement scale for medical devices has remained high since 2025, with June procurement figures showing significant year-on-year increases across various categories, such as ultrasound (1.391 billion yuan, +49%), CT (1.938 billion yuan, +59%), and MRI (1.531 billion yuan, +64%) [4][12][15] - The bidding recovery is evident, with monthly procurement figures for 2025 showing consistent growth, despite a slight slowdown in June [3][11] Company Performance - Leading companies are expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in equipment bidding, with firms like Mindray Medical projecting a noticeable recovery in overall performance starting from Q3 2025 [3][5][21] - In June 2025, the bidding amounts for major domestic companies were as follows: Mindray (623 million yuan, +15%), United Imaging (769 million yuan, +35%), and Kaili Medical (102 million yuan, +73%) [4][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading enterprises that are enhancing their high-end and intelligent medical equipment layouts, such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Kaili Medical, and Aohua Endoscopy [5][21] - The continuous support for equipment updates from government policies is expected to positively impact the industry, with a projected increase in procurement activities [21]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. June 2025 CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, meeting expectations[3] - The core CPI for June rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3%, while year-on-year it recorded 2.9%, in line with expectations[3] Key Contributors to Inflation - Energy prices surged, with WTI crude oil averaging an 11% increase month-on-month, contributing to a 0.9% rise in energy CPI[3] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the largest rise since February, and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, the highest since July 2023[3] - Clothing CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and showed a year-on-year decline of only 0.5%, indicating a recovery trend[3] Housing and Automotive Prices - Housing services CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%[3] - New car CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while used car prices, as indicated by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, rose by 1.6% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, suggesting potential future inflation in automotive prices[3] Market Reactions and Risks - The CPI data prompted a quick rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index, reflecting investor concerns about sustained inflation[3] - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on inflation, with risks of higher inflation in Q3 2025[3]

FANCHENGKAl 146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点: 观 报 245 证券 海外宏观 2025年7月 16日 美国 2025年6月 CPI 点评 通胀压力现痕迹 证券分析师 投资咨询资格编号 张 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU15@pingan.com 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 宏观点评 美国 6 月核心 CPI 环比略低于预期,但通胀明显抬头。美国 2025年 6 月 E CPI 环比录得 0.3%,同比录得 2.7%,均符合预期;6月核心 CPI 环比录得 0.2%,低于预期的0.3%;同比录得2.9%,符合预期。从环比趋势来看,6 月 CPI 以及核心 CPI 环比均高于 5 月;除了住房租金分项(环比 0.2%) 外,大部分的重点分项环比增速均高于今年 3-5 月的平均水平。其中,能源 分项的走高主因国际油价上涨(6月 WTI 原油月均价格环比大幅上升 11%, 能源 CPI 环比升 0.9% ),而大部分商品和服务价格环比走高,一定程度上体 现了特朗普关税政策的影响。 观点 券研究报 指数在短暂跳水后迅速走高,美股(在CPI公布后一小时开 ...

2025 年 07 月 16 日 2025 年 6 月经济增长数据点评 上半年中国经济平稳运行 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 风险提示：稳增长政策效果不及预期，海外经济衰退程度超预期，地缘政治冲突升级等。 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 上半年，中国实际 GDP 同比达到 5.3%，为完成全年目标打下了较好基础。 二季度，中国实际 GDP 同比增长 5.2%。从支出法 GDP 来看，二季度最终 消费支出拉动 GDP 2.72 个百分点，资本形成总额拉动 1.28 个百分点，货物 和服务净出口拉动 1.2 个百分点，内需进一步成为经济增长的主动力。二季 度 GDP 平减指数为-1.2%，较一季度下降 0.4 个百分点，二季度名义 GDP 同 比增长 3.94%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent Central Urban Work Conference has set a clear direction for urban development, focusing on high-quality urban growth and the acceleration of urban renewal initiatives. This is expected to enhance the real estate sector, particularly through the promotion of "good housing" and urban renewal projects [6][7]. - The report suggests that the real estate industry is poised for a new wave of development opportunities due to the ongoing urban renewal and the establishment of new development models, which will improve housing quality [6][7]. Summary by Sections Urban Development Strategy - The Central Urban Work Conference has reiterated the importance of urban work, emphasizing a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development, with a focus on optimizing urban structures and enhancing quality [7]. - Seven key tasks have been outlined, including the construction of green, low-carbon cities and the promotion of a new model for real estate development, which is expected to lead to more supportive policies [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and others. It also highlights companies involved in urban renewal and those undergoing valuation recovery [6][8].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - Social financing stock increased by 8.9% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Loan stock grew by 7.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month[5] - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, rising 2.3 percentage points from the previous month[5] - M2 grew by 8.3% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[5] Group 2: Contributing Factors - Government bond financing contributed 0.1 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of social financing stock, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year[5] - Foreign currency loans contributed 0.03 percentage points to social financing stock growth, reflecting increased support for foreign trade enterprises[5] - Short-term loans to enterprises contributed 0.18 percentage points to loan stock growth, offsetting declines from other financing categories[5] - Corporate deposits increased by 1.77 trillion yuan, up 3.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting the recovery of money supply growth[5] Group 3: Policy and Economic Context - The proactive fiscal policy has been implemented early, enhancing the financial system's support[5] - Structural policy tools have achieved full coverage across various sectors, with loans in technology, green finance, and other areas growing significantly[5] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[4][13]