电力设备及新能源 2025 年 9 月 15 日 行业周报 新型储能规模化建设行动方案印发，明阳英国风电市场获突破 强于大市（维持） 本周重点话题 行 业 报 告 行情走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2024/09/12 2025/02/12 2025/07/12 沪深300指数 电力设备及新能源 证券分析师 | 李梦强 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525090001 | | | PIXIU809@pingan.com.cn | | 皮秀 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060517070004 | | | PIXIU809@pingan.com.cn | | 张之尧 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524070005 | | | zhangzhiy ao757@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 本周（9 月 8 日-9 月 12 日）新能源细分板块行情回顾。本周风电指数上 涨 0.18%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.2 个百分点。截至本周，Wind 风电指数 整体市盈率（PE TTM） 为 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown steady growth this week, with a cumulative increase of 5.98%. The sector's performance has lagged behind the market, indicating potential for rotation and catch-up opportunities. Key factors include ongoing policy easing in first-tier cities and a year-to-date increase of only 7.9% in real estate, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.9% [3] - Concerns regarding the de-stocking rate of "good houses" have risen, necessitating further interest rate cuts and cost reductions. The supply of "good houses" remains relatively scarce due to reduced land acquisition and new construction by developers in recent years. Adjustments in second-hand housing prices are seen as a response to the de-stocking of new homes [3] - The report suggests maintaining a mid-term perspective on quality companies benefiting from industry trends, with a focus on short-term stock price realization. Recommended stocks include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others with stable mid-term performance [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector's stock performance this week outpaced the CSI 300, with a rise of 5.98% compared to 1.38% for the index. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector stands at 66.62, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 14.13, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [3][23] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities decreased by 7.3% week-on-week, with 14,000 units sold. In contrast, second-hand home transactions increased by 8.5%, with 17,000 units sold. Year-to-date, new home transactions have dropped by 24.3% compared to the previous year [10][12] - Inventory levels remained stable, with a total of 9,129 million square meters across 16 cities and a de-stocking cycle of 21.6 months [13] Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - China Overseas Development: Strong land acquisition and sales performance, with a low valuation of 0.4 times PB and a dividend yield of 3.7% [5] - Greentown China: Recognized for quality and strong land acquisition, with a market cap of 229 billion RMB and a sales ratio of 15% [5] - China Resources Land: Stable dividend and strong operational performance, with a projected dividend yield of 4.37% [5] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market-oriented approaches to activate idle land, indicating a supportive policy environment for the real estate sector [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Viewpoints - The financing environment remains loose, and the effects of destocking are becoming increasingly evident, with a continued trend towards stabilization in the real estate market [1][4]. - The report highlights that the sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continued policy support and the need for further interest rate cuts to enhance rental yield attractiveness and accelerate land acquisition [6][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In August, the sales amount of commercial housing was 544.9 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to July [6]. - The total area of unsold commercial housing at the end of August was 760 million square meters, marking a continuous reduction for six months, indicating effective destocking [6]. Financial Trends - Real estate investment in August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with new construction down 20.6% and completion down 21.4% [6]. - Domestic loans showed a positive growth of 1.1% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in the financing environment for the industry [6][5]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality, specifically mentioning companies like Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others as potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1: US Economic Policy - The US non-farm employment figure was revised down by 911,000, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000[1] - The August CPI in the US was 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, also meeting expectations[1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[1] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, indicating that inflationary pressures have been effectively contained[1] - Japan's second-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%[1] - Global stock markets and commodities showed positive performance, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index remained stable[1] Group 3: Market Predictions - The GDPNow model predicts a 3.1% annualized growth rate for the US GDP in the third quarter[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 11.0% to 6.6%, while the expectation for the policy rate at the end of 2025 slightly decreased from 3.55% to 3.54%[1] - The latest employment and inflation data support the Federal Reserve's potential resumption of rate cuts, boosting expectations for monetary easing[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance of the industry index to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% within the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of August social financing data by the central bank, showing a decrease in new RMB loans and a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8%. The total social financing increment for August was 2.57 trillion RMB, which is 463 billion RMB less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8% [4][13]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration revised the "Trust Company Management Measures," focusing on three main business areas: trust business, inherent asset liability business, and other services, aiming to enhance risk management and compliance [5][15]. - The revised "Consumer Rights Protection Regulatory Evaluation Measures" aims to strengthen consumer rights protection in financial institutions, improve service quality, and promote healthy industry development [6][19]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Data - In August 2025, new RMB loans increased by 590 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion RMB, with a total social financing increment of 2.57 trillion RMB, down 463 billion RMB from the previous year [4][13]. - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy increased by 623.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 417.8 billion RMB [4][14]. Trust Company Management Measures - The revised measures focus on three main areas: trust business, inherent asset liability business, and other services, with an emphasis on risk management and compliance [5][15]. - The revision aims to align with new regulations and enhance the quality of trust services [5][15]. Consumer Rights Protection Measures - The revised measures include a comprehensive evaluation system for financial institutions, emphasizing consumer rights protection and service transparency [6][19]. - The evaluation will cover various aspects, including marketing behavior, dispute resolution, and consumer education [20]. Industry Data - The banking sector saw a net injection of 196.1 billion RMB in open market operations, with SHIBOR rates rising [27]. - The securities sector reported an average daily trading volume of 3.04 trillion RMB, with a decrease of 4.5% from the previous week [30]. - The insurance sector noted a rise in the yield of ten-year government bonds by 4.10 basis points [33].

Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows marginal stabilization with daily average pig iron output and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increasing[2] - The operating rates for asphalt and most chemical products have rebounded, while only steel and construction materials show slight adjustments in output and apparent demand[2] - The textile and polyester operating rates have seasonally increased, along with the operating rates for both radial and bias tires[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 7.2% year-on-year as of September 12, with a 5.7 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The new home sales area in these cities has shown a 9.8% year-on-year growth since September, reversing from negative growth last month[2] - The listing price index for second-hand homes decreased by 0.59% month-on-month as of September 1[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to outperform last year's figures, with a 41.0% year-on-year increase in daily average revenue of 51.14 million yuan as of September 12[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries grew by 11.0% year-on-year, although this was a slight decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 10.5% year-on-year as of September 7[2] - The export container freight rate index decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo's export container rates also declining[2] - South Korea's export value increased by 3.8% year-on-year in the first ten days of September, a 2.5 percentage point increase from August[2] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.5%, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index and Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index rose by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively[2] - Rebar futures closed down by 0.5%, with spot prices also decreasing by 0.4%[2] - Coking coal futures dropped by 1.2%, and Shanxi coking coal spot prices fell by 1.4%[2]

Overall Performance - A-share listed companies reported a 2.4% year-on-year profit growth in Q2 2025, with market sentiment remaining optimistic[4] - The cumulative net profit growth rates for all A-shares and non-financial A-shares were 2.4% and 1.0%, respectively, showing a decline of 1.2 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points compared to Q1 2025[9] - Non-financial A-shares' overseas business revenue grew by 3.9%, contributing 15.3% to total revenue[9] Sector Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board showed a significant profit recovery with a net profit growth rate of 38.0% in Q2 2025, contrasting with a decline of 14.3% in the same period for the ChiNext Board[12] - Large-cap stocks demonstrated relative resilience, with the cumulative net profit growth rates for the CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 300 at 6.9%, 2.8%, and 2.4%, respectively[12] - AI technology continues to lead high prosperity, with the TMT sector maintaining strong growth, particularly in AI computing hardware[15] Consumer Trends - High-end new energy vehicles and innovative pharmaceuticals showed improved market conditions, with the automotive sector experiencing unexpected domestic sales growth[4] - The food and beverage sector saw a mixed performance, with liquor industry profits stabilizing while beverage and snack segments remained high in demand[4] Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue high-level fluctuations, with recommendations to focus on sectors with upward trends in industrial prosperity and superior performance[4] - Key sectors to watch include technology growth (AI, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals), advanced manufacturing (new energy, automotive), and traditional cyclical sectors benefiting from price increases[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, lower-than-expected profit growth for listed companies, and unexpected disturbances from overseas policies and geopolitical tensions[4]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August 2025, the total social financing (社融) stock increased by 8.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Loan stock grew by 6.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M2 maintained a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, unchanged from the previous month[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Loan Structure - Government bond financing under social financing increased by 21.1% year-on-year, contributing 4 percentage points to the growth of social financing[2] - The growth rate of fiscal deposits was 7.1% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month[2] - Total loans increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with corporate loans showing a significant increase of 540 billion yuan, up 240 billion yuan from the previous year[2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year[2] Group 3: Capital Market Activity - Non-financial corporate stock financing in August continued to exceed the same period last year, indicating improved access to equity markets[2] - New household deposits slowed to 110 billion yuan, a decrease of 600 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since November 2018[2] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased to 1.18 trillion yuan, up 550 billion yuan year-on-year, suggesting a potential shift of household savings into the capital market[2] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11] - Investment ratings suggest a strong recommendation for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[12]

证券研究报告 大消费行业周报 8月消费市场运行总体平稳， 核心CPI继续回升 平安证券研究所 大消费团队 证券分析师： 王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询）邮箱：HUQIONGFANG722@pingan.com.cn 王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年9月15日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 本周观点 大消费行业周观点：8月消费市场运行总体平稳，核心CPI继续回升。本周大消费各子版块中，除消费者服务外均实现正增长，主要得益于整 体市场环境与资金面驱动。根据国家统计局，8月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比持平，同比下降0.4%，主要是上年同期对比基数走高， 叠加食品价格涨幅低于季节 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against imported simulation chips from the United States, which is expected to reshape a healthier development environment for the industry [4][7]. - The simulation chip sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with a reported revenue of 24.502 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.16%, and a net profit of 503 million yuan, up 280.46% [7]. - The global simulation chip market is projected to reach 84 billion USD in 2025, with the Chinese market expected to exceed 350 billion yuan, indicating significant market potential [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The anti-dumping investigation covers simulation chips produced in the U.S., specifically targeting commodity interface IC chips and gate driver IC chips using 40nm and above process technology [4]. Market Performance - The simulation chip sector's gross margin stands at 35.34%, with a net margin of 1.91%, indicating a gradual recovery, although profits remain below the peak levels seen in 2021 [7]. Domestic Market Potential - The domestic market for simulation chips is anticipated to have a localization rate of approximately 22% in 2025, suggesting substantial room for growth in domestic production [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic simulation chip companies such as Shengbang Co., SIRUI, Nanchip Technology, and others, as well as core semiconductor manufacturing firms like SMIC and Huahong [7].