基金研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日 基金点评 《公募基金业绩比较基准指引及操作细则》解读 证券分析师 | 陈 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060524120003 | | | CHENYAO370@pingan.com.cn | | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520070003 | | | GUOZIRUI807@pingan.com.cn | | 任书康 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525050001 | | | RENSHUKANG722@pingan.com.cn | 研究助理 高 越 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070014 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 《指引》和《细则》正式稿相对征求意见稿，主要调整内容包括：1）聚 焦投资风格匹配：明确投资目标和投资风格为核心内容，具体说明了投资 方向与投资风格应当关注的基准要素，强调应对不同类型产品分类展示或 排序。2）明确基准变更规则：规定基准变更须在新基准生效前三十日公 告，突出持续性要求，基准一经选定不得随意变更。3）扩大监管主体范 围：《 ...

证券研究报告 短期交易地缘局势动荡，油价或震荡偏强 原油月报： 2026年1月报 证券分析师 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号：S1060523110001 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070002 石油石化 强于大市（维持） 2026年1月25日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心观点： 短期地缘风险升温，油价或呈震荡偏强走势 • 国际油价回顾：2026年1月油价呈现震荡偏强走势。2026年初以来，美委关系紧张，中东局势动荡，地缘风险升温再次成为支撑油价的主 因。重点影响事件：1）2026年1月3日,美国对委内瑞拉多处目标发动军事袭击，特朗普称抓获其总统马杜罗及其夫人并带离委内瑞拉， 并称美国将深度介入委内瑞拉石油产业。2）1月9日，特朗普与约20家石油企业高管会晤，要求他们向委内瑞拉投资1000亿美元以大幅增 产石油，但未获积极响应。3）1月12日，特朗普称对伊朗所有贸易伙伴征收25%关税。4）1月12日，维托尔集团和托克集团两家贸易巨头 已获美国政府初步批准销售委内瑞拉原油，近期就潜在的委内瑞拉原油销售事宜与中印大型炼油商展开磋商。5）1月15日消息，美国 "亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰协同多艘舰艇正驶 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The price of precious metals has surged due to heightened risk aversion, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4983.1 per ounce, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.1% increase to 1087 tons. Factors such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on European countries opposing its claim over Greenland and potential sales of U.S. Treasury bonds by Europe have contributed to this trend. The weakening dollar credit is expected to continue, supporting the upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: There is optimism regarding the upward trend in industrial metal prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and tin, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold: As of January 23, the COMEX gold futures price reached $4983.1 per ounce, reflecting an 8.3% increase. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.1% to 1087 tons. The ongoing U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4]. 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of January 23, the SHFE copper futures price rose by 0.57% to 101340 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory was 330,200 tons, while LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons. The tightening supply expectations and the anticipated Fed rate cuts are expected to drive copper prices higher [6]. - Aluminum: The SHFE aluminum futures price increased by 1.5% to 24290 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 743,000 tons. The market is expected to see stable prices with a tightening supply-demand balance [6]. - Tin: The SHFE tin futures price rose by 6% to 429,600 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory was 10,678 tons. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues and increasing demand from AI technology are expected to keep tin prices elevated [6]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Continued uncertainty in overseas macro conditions supports gold's safe-haven attributes. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - Copper: Domestic demand recovery and tightening supply are expected to support copper prices. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - Aluminum: The strong supply-demand dynamics are expected to drive aluminum prices higher. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [7][55].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in market attention towards the real estate chain, with significant weekly gains of 5.21% and 9.23% for the Shenwan real estate and building materials sectors respectively. The rebound is attributed to several factors, including a substantial rise in second-hand housing transactions in key cities, a positive earnings forecast from Poly Developments, and limited downward space for traditional real estate companies [3] - The report suggests that the real estate market is showing positive short-term signals, with ongoing favorable factors accumulating. It highlights the potential for market stabilization in the second half of 2026 to 2027, driven by easing down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which reduce the financial burden on homebuyers [3] Market Monitoring - Transaction volumes have shown a rebound, with new home sales in 50 key cities reaching 13,000 units, a 6.7% increase week-on-week, while second-hand home sales in 20 key cities reached 20,000 units, up 5.2% week-on-week. However, year-on-year comparisons show a 24% decline for new homes and a 6.7% increase for second-hand homes [8][9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 90.29 million square meters of inventory across 16 cities, reflecting a 0.5% decrease and a decommissioning cycle of 21 months [11] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a weekly increase of 5.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector stands at 63.16, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 14.08, indicating a valuation at the 95.64 percentile over the past five years [21][22] - The report notes that 78.9 billion yuan of real estate bonds were issued this week, with a total repayment amount of 109.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -30.9 billion yuan [16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Real estate companies with light historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [3] 2. Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market stabilization, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, highlighting significant growth potential in the consumer sector [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on specific segments within the consumer industry, such as tourism, beauty, jewelry, media, and food and beverage, which are expected to show resilience and growth [4][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Social Services - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, with leading companies responding effectively to changing consumer demands, particularly as the Spring Festival approaches [4]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can quickly adapt to market dynamics [4]. - The jewelry sector presents investment opportunities, particularly for brands that can increase market share and maintain strong performance [4]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - Major liquor companies are experiencing a deeper decline in net profits compared to previous quarters, but leading firms are expected to enhance market share through effective brand management [4]. - The report identifies three key investment lines: high-end liquor with stable demand, mid-range liquor with national expansion, and local real estate liquor [4]. Food and Beverage - General - The at-home dining market, represented by companies like Guoquan, shows significant growth potential, with a focus on product, channel, and supply chain advantages [4]. - The restaurant sector is entering a peak season with the upcoming Spring Festival, and supply chain conditions are stabilizing [4]. Key Company Announcements - China Duty Free Group is expanding its international retail market presence through a strategic partnership with LVMH, which includes a significant acquisition [12]. - Meili Tianyuan is forecasting a revenue increase of at least 16% in 2025, driven by both external acquisitions and strong internal growth [15]. - Longzi Co. is expecting a net profit of 9-10.5 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a positive outlook despite some adjustments in financial reporting [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - Kazakhstan's two major oil fields have halted production, causing supply disruptions that have boosted oil prices. WTI crude futures rose by 3.11% and Brent crude futures increased by 3.16% during the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Europe regarding Greenland, and uncertainties in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, continue to pose risks to the oil market [6]. - The supply constraints in the fluorochemical sector, combined with favorable demand driven by policy support, are expected to sustain high levels of market activity [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Kazakhstan's oil fields "Tengiz" and "Korolev" have suspended production due to issues with the power distribution system, potentially lasting 7 to 10 days, which will reduce exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) [6]. - The report highlights the need for vigilance regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with the US increasing military presence while also delaying military actions against Iran [6]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil and gas sources and investing in offshore resources to reduce dependence on foreign energy [7]. Fluorochemicals - The issuance of HFC production quotas for 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year, with specific increases for HFC-134a, HFC-245fa, and HFC-32 [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow due to government subsidies and the ongoing recovery in the home appliance and automotive sectors [6]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor inventory reduction trend is improving, and the basic fundamentals are gradually recovering, indicating potential for further upward movement in the sector [7]. - The report recommends attention to companies involved in semiconductor materials, particularly those benefiting from domestic substitution trends [7].

Core Viewpoints - The spring market trend continues with small and mid-cap stocks outperforming while large-cap stocks experience volatility. The A-share market saw a weekly increase of 0.8% in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 rose by 4.3% and 4.0% respectively. In contrast, the CSI 300 and SSE 50 declined by 0.6% and 1.5% respectively. Key sectors leading the gains include construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and basic chemicals, with increases ranging from 7% to 10% [2][12][13]. Recent Dynamics - December economic data indicates a recovery in industrial production, while consumption and investment growth continue to decline. The industrial added value year-on-year growth rate rose to 5.2% in December, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors maintaining high growth rates. However, retail sales growth fell to 0.9%, and fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% [3][4]. Policy Tracking - Recent policies aim to support consumption and private investment through a series of financial measures. The Ministry of Finance and other departments have introduced interest subsidy policies for small and micro enterprises, extending support to sectors such as new energy vehicles, high-end equipment, and artificial intelligence. The total guarantee plan for private investment is set at 500 billion yuan, focusing on enhancing the operational capacity of small and micro enterprises [5][6]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with small and mid-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. The CSI 500 and CSI 2000 indices recorded gains between 2% and 4.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.8%. The average daily trading volume across the A-share market was approximately 2.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 19.23% decrease from the previous week [12][13]. Sector Performance - Among the 31 primary sectors, 24 achieved positive returns, with construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and basic chemicals leading the way. Conversely, sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and non-bank financials experienced declines. Concept indices related to gold jewelry, photovoltaics, and advanced packaging saw significant gains, ranging from 10% to 13% [12][13][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [3]. Core Insights - The automotive market in the first quarter faces uncertainties, with upstream cost pressures challenging the performance of automakers' quarterly reports. The retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are projected to reach 23.744 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1]. - The domestic automotive market is transitioning with policy changes, including a shift in the new energy vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction, which may lead to consumer hesitation. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to experience pressure on automotive consumption due to these factors [1]. - The focus for 2026 is on "quality improvement" in the automotive sector, with policies favoring mid-to-high-end market models to alleviate low-level price competition. The total automotive market growth is expected to slow down, with a projected increase of only 1% year-on-year [1]. - Overseas markets are anticipated to stabilize automakers' sales and profits in 2026, with companies like BYD and Geely planning significant growth in international sales. BYD expects to sell 1.5 million units overseas, while Geely aims for a 50%-80% increase in its overseas sales [1]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a transformation in business models due to advancements in technology, particularly in intelligent driving and robotics. The commercial viability of L3 autonomous driving is expected to progress significantly by 2026, with companies like Tesla and Xpeng leading the charge [2]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles are expected to be around 1.8 million units in January 2026, a decrease of 20.4% month-on-month, with new energy vehicle sales reaching approximately 800,000 units, achieving a penetration rate of 44.4% [1]. - The total automotive sales in China for 2026 are projected to be 34.75 million units, including 7.4 million for export, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The automotive market is currently in a transitional phase with policy adjustments, particularly regarding the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement program, which is expected to support consumption in 2026 [1]. - The focus on "quality improvement" in 2026 aims to shift consumer demand towards higher-end models, reducing the prevalence of price wars in the industry [1]. Investment Opportunities - Three main investment opportunities are identified for 2026: 1. Overseas expansion, focusing on companies with strong international market foundations such as Chery, Great Wall, BYD, SAIC, and Geely [2]. 2. The commercialization of intelligent driving and AI business models, with recommendations for companies like Xpeng, Seres, Li Auto, and Horizon Robotics [2]. 3. High-end market positioning, with a focus on companies like Seres, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Chery, while also suggesting attention to Jianghuai Automobile [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown a strong start in 2026, with stock price rebounds attributed to overall market risk appetite and valuation increases, recent policy optimizations in Beijing, and a decline in personal housing sales tax rates [3] - The report suggests three main investment lines: companies with light historical burdens and strong product capabilities, Hong Kong real estate benefiting from market stabilization, and firms with stable cash flow and dividends [3] - The policy outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations for further adjustments in housing loan rates and other supportive measures [4][6] Policy Summary - Recent policies include a reduction in the personal housing sales tax for properties held for over two years, the introduction of commercial real estate REITs, and tax refunds for individuals selling their homes and purchasing new ones within a year [5][6] - The central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to reduce housing purchase costs [6][7] Market Conditions - January 2026 saw improved transaction volumes compared to December 2025, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes [17][20] - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in 50 key cities decreased by 27.9% year-on-year in January, while second-hand homes saw a 2.1% increase [20] Land Market - Land transaction volumes increased significantly in December 2025, with a 152.7% rise in transaction area compared to the previous month, although the average land supply decreased by 60.1% [30] Company Performance - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 3.9% increase in land acquisition amounts in 2025, with notable companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao leading in land acquisition intensity [38][42] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's PE ratio is currently at 62.47, significantly higher than the broader market's 14.17, indicating a high valuation level [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is showing signs of bottoming out, with potential benefits for Hong Kong-based real estate companies. Since 2018-2019, the market has undergone significant adjustments, but there are indications of marginal improvements in office rental rates and vacancy rates in core areas, as well as a narrowing decline in retail property rents. The macroeconomic and property market recovery may lead to a gradual exit from the low point, positively impacting rental income and property value reassessment for developers [3][6][21]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate - The report indicates that Hong Kong's commercial real estate is currently at a bottoming signal, with core area office rents and vacancy rates showing marginal improvements. Retail property rent declines are also narrowing, suggesting a potential recovery in the market [3][6]. Swire Properties - Swire Properties is highlighted as a leading comprehensive commercial project developer and operator, with 2024 revenue from Hong Kong and mainland China accounting for 60% and 37% respectively. The company has a high proportion of rental income from properties, with 93% of its income derived from property investments. The tenant structure is favorable, and the company has committed to a significant investment plan of HKD 670 billion by 2025 [3][39][81]. Hang Lung Properties - Hang Lung Properties focuses on high-end properties, with a diversified portfolio across nine cities in Hong Kong and mainland China. In 2024, rental income from mainland properties accounted for 57.5%, while Hong Kong's rental income was 27.1%. The company aims to stabilize rental income through project expansions and asset optimization [3][97][98]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with a high proportion of rental income, such as Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties, as they are likely to benefit from the recovery in the commercial real estate market driven by financial activity and retail sector recovery [3][21].