证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 瑶 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | | 高 | 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 报告摘要 分类型ETF跟踪： 2 2026年1月4日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：截至12月31日，近两周ETF产品表现较好。国内主要宽基ETF中，科创100涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，军工主题ETF涨幅最大。近 两周，国内主要宽基ETF中，中证A500ETF资金大幅流入，此外中证1000、中证500、科创100ETF资金净流入额居前。2）近两周，周期、大制造其他ETF资金 加速流入，红利、医药ETF资金流入速度放缓，消费、新能源、科技ETF资金转为净流出，金融地产ETF净流出速度放缓，军工ET ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the national government will continue to support the renewal of medical equipment in 2026, which is expected to drive demand in the medical device sector. The focus is on high-end equipment and companies with significant performance improvements and international expansion, such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Aohua Endoscopy, and Kaili Medical [3]. - The report emphasizes the optimization of application conditions and review processes for equipment renewal projects, aiming to lower investment thresholds and enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - The ongoing policy for equipment renewal is anticipated to sustain a favorable bidding environment for medical devices, with a gradual improvement in performance as inventory clears [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the government's announcement on December 30, 2025, regarding large-scale equipment renewal and the inclusion of various sectors, including healthcare, in the support framework for 2026 [3]. - It outlines the measures to improve the application process for equipment renewal, including stricter requirements for equipment depreciation and minimum usage periods [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies that are expected to show significant performance improvements and have a leading international presence in the medical device sector [3]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Aohua Endoscopy, and Kaili Medical, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated demand for high-end medical equipment [3]. Market Performance - The medical sector has experienced a decline, with a reported drop of 2.06% in the last week, ranking 25th among 28 industries [8][18]. - The report notes that the medical device market is under pressure in the short term due to policy impacts, but improvements are expected as companies innovate and expand internationally [5].

电力设备及新能源 2026 年 1 月 4 日 行业周报 宁德时代宣布规模应用钠电池，政策支持光伏知识产权保护 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 | 李梦强 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525090001 | | | LIMENGQIANG340@pingan.com.cn | | 皮秀 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060517070004 | | | PIXIU809@pingan.com.cn | | 张之尧 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524070005 | | | ZHANGZHIYAO757@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 本周（2025.12.29-2025.12.31）新能源细分板块行情回顾。风电指数 （866044.WI）下跌 1.40%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.82 个百分点。截至本 周，风电板块 PE_TTM 估值约 25.62 倍。本周申万光伏设备指数 （801735.SI）下跌 3.29%，其中，申万光伏电池组件指数下跌 3.50%， 申万光伏加工设备指数上涨 2.15%，申万光伏辅材指数下跌 2.46% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

证券研究报告 《求是》刊文改善和稳定房地产市场预期， 住房品质提升意见发布 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年1月4日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：2025年楼市延续调整，中性假设预计2026年全国销售同比降6%。2025年楼市整体延续调整，全年重点30城商品房成交套数/面 积同比下降15%和13%，但降幅较2024年收窄6.5和9.4pct。二手房成交表现优于新房，典型十大城市二手房成交套数同比微增0.2%，好于 新房（-19%），成交占比由2024年的57.2%提升至62.3%。展望2026年，我们认为积极因素持续汇聚，曙光渐行渐近：总量层面，本轮国 内楼市量价调整幅度已与海外接近；区域及产品层面，中国香港楼市已逐步止跌回稳，"好房子"延续较好去化；购房者层面，首付比 例及房贷利率下行，居民置业压力不断减轻。中性假设预计2026年全国房地产投资、销售下滑8.5%、6%。 改善和稳定房地产市场预期，2026年政策仍值得期待。2026年1月1日《求是》发表特约评论员文章——《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》， 提到"我国房地产转型发展空间依然 ...

证券研究报告 Manus即将加入Meta， AI Agent应用推广未来将有望加速 计算机行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所计算机团队 分析师： 闫磊 S1060517070006（证券投资咨询）YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 2026年1月4日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 黄韦涵 S1060523070003（证券投资咨询）HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 刘云坤 S1060525120004（证券投资咨询）LIUYUNKUN518@pingan.com.cn Manus即将加入Meta，AI Agent应用推广未来将有望加速 事件描述：北京时间12月30日，Manus发布公告称，Manus即将加入Meta。 点评：Manus称，这是对Manus在通用AI Agent领域里工作的认可。根据Manus公告信息，自发布以来，Manus 专注于构建通用型 AI Agent，帮助用户高效完成研究、自动化和复杂任务。面对全球越来越多用户的使用需求，团队持续迭代产品，努力使 Manus 在实际使用中更实用、更可靠。根据2025年12月初统计的数据，上线至今，Manus 已处理超 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to see a spring rally, with thematic growth breaking through despite mixed signals from the global economy and domestic indicators [2] - The manufacturing PMI for December rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion [3][4] - The "old-for-new" policy and optimization of real estate policies are expected to further support domestic demand [2] Recent Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, with production and new orders indices both above 50, indicating improved business conditions [3][4] - The construction PMI rose significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8, reflecting a strong recovery in the construction sector [4] - The service sector PMI also showed slight improvement, rising to 49.7, indicating a gradual recovery [4] Policy Tracking - The 2026 "old-for-new" policy aims to support the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, with a focus on smart products and mid-to-high-end automobiles [5][6] - The reduction of the personal housing sales value-added tax rate is expected to enhance the activity in the second-hand housing market [6] - The central bank's measures to strengthen the digital RMB management system are set to enhance financial services [6] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.13%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.25% [15] - Key sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media led the gains, with increases of 3.92%, 3.05%, and 2.13% respectively [13][15] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market rose to approximately 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% increase week-on-week [15][17]

石油石化 2026 年 1 月 4 日 石油石化周报 油价短期或有支撑，关注美委局势升级和 OPEC+增产态度 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：美委地缘局势升级，叠加市场预期 OPEC+将维持暂停增 产立场，或对油价形成一定支撑。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 12 月 26 日 -2026 年 1 月 2 日，WTI 原油期货收盘价上涨 0.62%，布伦特油期货 价保持不变。地缘政治方面 ...

有色金属 2026 年 1 月 4 日 有色金属周报 海外地缘政治升级，金属战略资源属性定价或再抬升 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 24-12 25-03 25-06 25-09 25-12 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 贵金属-黄 金 ：海外 地缘政 治升 级，避 险情 绪或持 续发酵。截至 12.31，COMEX 金主力合约达 4341.9 美元/盎司，环比下跌 4.8%。 SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比减少 0.6%为 1065 吨。我们认为金价短期回调 主要为中期上涨节奏调整。1 月 3 日，特朗普政府对委内瑞拉采取军 事打击并抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，此举标志着地缘政治紧张局势 出现升级，黄金市场避险情绪或仍有可能持续发酵。长期来看美国债 务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及黄金投资 需求增长，贵金属价格重心或继续抬升。 工业金属：金融属性定价权重加速抬升，看好工业金属上涨行情。 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 有色金属·行业周报 投资建议 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, with the composite PMI output index at 50.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month[3] - Manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone for the first time in 8 months, with indices for production and new orders rising by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively[3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing PMI for December shows significant growth, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries reporting an increase[3] - High-tech manufacturing saw the most notable improvement, with a PMI of 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] Construction and Services - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly, with a business activity index at 52.8%, indicating a recovery driven by favorable weather and pre-holiday construction activities[3] - Service sector sentiment showed a slight recovery, but retail and catering industries remain under pressure, with business activity indices in contraction zones[3] Price Indices - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell slightly by 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing gap between supply and demand[3] - The PPI year-on-year decline is expected to narrow to between -2.1% and -2% as the PMI remains above negative territory for five consecutive months[3] Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[2][13] - Investment recommendations suggest a strong buy for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[14]