证券研究报告 运动户外专题系列（五）： 网球运动行业全景图 证券分析师 王源 投资咨询资格编号： S1060524010001 纺服行业 强于大市（维持） 2025年7月15日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 我们认为，运动户外行业是新消费中非常具有投资机会和投资价值的赛道。本篇报告是运动户外专题系列报告的第五篇，随着网球运动受到大众的喜 爱，以及在国家政策的大力支持下，我们密切关注运动户外的细分赛道。特别关注户外运动产业链上下游的研究，寻找网球运动行业相关的投资机会。 2 网球运动正逐渐从欧美等传统优势国家拓展至中国等新市场。全球各国家及地区的网球运动参与热度逐渐升温。根据KANTAR数据，2024年全球网 球参与者超过1.06亿人，较2021年增长21.6%；全球网球场数量约69.8万个，较2021年增长20.8%。此外，全球网球赛事发展成熟且完善。全球网 球赛事主要由国际网球联合会（ITF）、女子职业网球协会（WTA）、国际职业网球协会（ATP）三大组织管理，其中国际网球联合会（ITF）最为 著名，即四大满贯网球公开赛组织管理方。 我国网球运动行业规模持续增长。由于我国政府对体育运动产业的大力支持， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [27] Core Insights - The xAI team officially released Grok 4, achieving record results in multiple evaluations, indicating significant advancements in AI capabilities [4][6][8] - The computer industry index rose by 3.22% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.40 percentage points, suggesting a positive market trend for the sector [18][20] - The report emphasizes the potential for dual improvement in performance and valuation within the computer industry, driven by accelerated demand recovery [23] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - The release of Grok 4 by the xAI team marks a significant milestone in AI development, with Grok 4 scoring 73 in the AI index, surpassing competitors like OpenAI's O3 and Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro [8] - The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to discuss the development trends and strategies for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, highlighting the regulatory environment's evolution [11][12][13] Key Company Announcements - Multiple companies, including iFLYTEK and 360, announced their half-year performance forecasts for 2025, with varying expectations of profit and loss [15][17] - iFLYTEK anticipates a net loss of 280 million to 200 million yuan, while 360 expects a net loss of 320 million to 240 million yuan due to increased marketing expenses [15][17] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 9.75% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has only increased by 2.03% [18] - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry stands at 53.1 times, with 297 out of 359 A-share component stocks experiencing price increases last week [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several sectors within the computer industry, including the Xinchuang sector, Huawei supply chain, AI sector, financial IT sector, and low-altitude economy, with specific company recommendations for each [23]

S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 2025 年 7 月 15 日 2025 年 6 月外贸数据点评 进出口增速同步回升 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | | 常艺馨 | 投资咨询资格编号 | 事项： 以美元计价，2025 年 6 月中国出口同比增长 5.8%，前值增 4.8%；进口增长 1.1%，前值降 3.4%；贸易顺差 1147.7 亿美元，前值 1032.2 亿美元。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 6 月中国进出口增速同步回升。2025 年 6 月中国出口金额同比增长 5.8%， 增速较上月提升 1.0 个百分点；进口金额同比增长 1.1%，较上月提升 4.5 个 百分点。结构上呈现以下特征： 1. 出口分国别看， ...

2025 年 7 月 14 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 7 月第 2 周） 港口货运增速回升 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周中国工业生产存在分化，但需求复苏仍在持续， 线下经济活跃度仍高，尤其是 7 月初外需呈现一定回稳迹象，中国港口 货运和韩国 7 月前 10 日出口增速均有回升。 1. 工业：生产存在分化。原材料方面，本周水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥 青开工率、部分化工品开工率提升，浮法玻璃开工率持平于上周，五大 钢材品种产量和表观需求季节性调整，产需表现更为匹配。中下游方面， 本周汽车轮胎半钢胎和全钢胎开工率环比回升，纺织聚酯开工率、聚酯 织造业开工率季节性调整。 2. 地产：新房成交较上周略有好转。1）销售方面，本周新房销售面积同比 增速较上周提升 0.7 个百分点；7 月以来（截至 11 日）新房销售面积同 比增速较 ...

海外宏观周报 美国贸易政策风险再升 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 海外宏观 2025 年 7 月 14 日 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外经济政策。1）美国：政策方面，特朗普宣布一系列关税政策：7月 7日，特朗普签署行政令，将"对等关税"暂缓日期由 7月9日推迟至8 月 1 日，同日宣布对来自日本和韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25% 至 40%不等的关税；7 月 9 日，特朗普宣布对来自巴西和菲律宾等 8个 国家的进口产品征收 20%至 50%不等的关税，同日宣布将对所有进口到 美国的铜征收 50%的关税；7月10日，特朗普宣布将对加拿大商品加征 35%关税。美联储公布 6 月会议纪要显示，官员们在何时恢复降息的问 题上有分歧，大多数美联储官员预计今年晚些时候将恢复降息。美联储 理事沃勒表示，可以考虑 ...

ETF Market Overview - The overall performance of ETF products has been good in the past two weeks, with the largest increase seen in the ChiNext Index ETF and the pharmaceutical industry ETF [4][12] - Major broad-based ETFs such as the Science and Technology 50, CSI 2000, and CSI 800 saw net inflows, while the CSI A500 ETF experienced the largest net outflow [4][12] - After significant outflows at the beginning of the year, technology ETFs have shifted to net inflows since March, with a notable acceleration in inflow speed in the last two weeks [4][20] ETF Product Structure Distribution - As of July 11, 17 new ETFs were launched in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 31.823 billion units, including 7 stock ETFs and 10 pure bond ETFs [27] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs rising by 132.25%, 111.16%, 29.00%, 14.05%, and 2.70% respectively [27] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology theme ETFs, products tracking animation and gaming performed best, while overseas technology ETFs underperformed compared to domestic ones [33] - For dividend theme ETFs, those tracking the CSI Central State-Owned Enterprise Dividend had the highest return in the past two weeks, with significant net inflows for products tracking low-volatility dividend indices [4][33] - In the pharmaceutical theme ETFs, products tracking innovative drug indices showed strong performance, with net inflows for those tracking Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug indices [4][33] Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of July 11, Huaxia Fund has the largest ETF scale at 762.281 billion yuan, while E Fund's ETF management scale has expanded by over 290 billion yuan compared to one year ago [28]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - China's GDP growth is projected to maintain around 5.2% in Q2 2025, with a target of 5% for the entire year, requiring a growth rate of 4.7-4.8% in the second half[3] - In the first half of 2025, broad fiscal spending increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate rising from 2.7% at the end of the previous year to 6.6%[29] - The industrial added value in May 2025 grew by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in manufacturing despite external pressures[57] Group 2: Trade and Consumption - Trade friction with the U.S. has been managed effectively, with China's exports showing resilience, growing by 8.1% in April 2025 despite increased tariffs[14] - Consumer spending has rebounded, with retail sales in May 2025 increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since 2024[20] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment increasing by 53% and 33% respectively in May 2025[23] Group 3: Policy Support - The government plans to allocate an additional 2.9 trillion yuan in new debt for 2025, with 2.1 trillion yuan aimed at risk prevention and 0.8 trillion yuan for stimulating demand[73] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced, with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan to support investment in key projects[80] - The government is focusing on enhancing public investment in social welfare and infrastructure to stimulate consumption, with an estimated 31 trillion yuan in potential public investment over the next five years[100]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The wind power index increased by 2.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.01 percentage points during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025 [4][11] - The overall price-to-earnings ratio (PE TTM) for the Wind power index is 20.29 times [11] - GE is set to construct an 18MW offshore wind turbine prototype in Norway, indicating a significant step in offshore wind technology testing [5][10] - Domestic wind turbine manufacturers have surpassed their overseas counterparts in terms of single-unit capacity, with several companies already producing or installing 16-18MW offshore wind turbines [5][10] - Aiko Solar reported a turnaround in Q2 2025, achieving a net profit of 0.2-1.3 billion yuan, indicating improved operational conditions [5] - Shandong's new energy storage system set a record with a total capacity of 8.25 million kilowatts, highlighting the growing importance of energy storage in the power system [6] Summary by Sections Wind Power - GE Vernova's subsidiary will build an 18MW offshore wind turbine in Norway, part of its offshore wind technology testing plan [5][10] - The report notes that overseas companies face challenges in developing larger turbines due to long development cycles and financial conditions [5][10] - Domestic manufacturers are rapidly advancing in turbine capacity, creating a technological advantage for exports [5][10] Solar Power - Aiko Solar's Q2 2025 results show a significant improvement, with a net profit turnaround attributed to optimized product structure and increased overseas sales [5] Energy Storage & Hydrogen - Shandong's energy storage system achieved a record discharge capacity, emphasizing the critical role of energy storage in balancing power supply and demand [6] - The report anticipates a new market-driven business model for energy storage following the removal of mandatory storage policies [6] Investment Recommendations - In wind power, the report suggests focusing on domestic demand growth and investment opportunities in offshore wind turbine exports [6] - For solar power, it recommends monitoring structural opportunities within the BC industry [6] - In energy storage, it highlights potential in overseas markets and recommends companies with strong global competitiveness [6] - In hydrogen, it advises attention to companies involved in green hydrogen project investments [6]

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on July 11 to strengthen the long-term assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies, adjusting the evaluation method for "return on net assets" and "capital preservation and appreciation rate" to a combination of current year, 3-year, and 5-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [2][6][21] - The new assessment method aims to encourage insurance funds to focus on long-term stable investments, which is expected to enhance the long-term investment returns of insurance companies and alleviate investment pressures [2][9][21] - The insurance sector is anticipated to see an increase in equity asset allocation, while maintaining a generally stable asset allocation style due to the pressure on liability costs and the need for quality assets to achieve incremental investment returns [8][9][21] Group 2: Market Strategy and Performance - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index and the CSI 1000 index both increasing by approximately 2.4%, driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and positive changes in domestic policies [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: technology growth sectors benefiting from both domestic and external demand, industries likely to improve due to the "anti-involution" trend, and financial sectors with high dividend advantages [3][13] - The real estate sector saw a significant increase of 6.12%, indicating a potential recovery as market sentiment improves ahead of important meetings [18][19] Group 3: AI and Office Software Industry - The AI + office software industry is at a turning point, transitioning from tool intelligence to workflow reconstruction, driven by breakthroughs in large model technology [3][15] - Major players like Microsoft dominate the high-end market, while domestic companies leverage localized data advantages and policy support to rapidly rise in the market [15][16] - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies such as Kingsoft Office, Foxit Software, and others, as the industry is expected to continue expanding due to the deepening of digital transformation and the demand for domestic alternatives [15][16] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector is supported by seasonal demand for refined oil, with WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.05% recently [24][26] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to provide short-term support for oil prices, while OPEC+ plans to increase production may lead to downward pressure on prices in the medium term [24][26] - The report suggests focusing on domestic oil companies with strong earnings resilience, such as China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil [26] Group 5: Precious and Industrial Metals - The gold market is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [28][30] - Copper prices may face short-term volatility due to impending tariffs, but medium-term demand is expected to remain strong due to industrialization in emerging markets [28][30] - The aluminum market is anticipated to see upward price movement due to a strong supply-demand imbalance, with recommendations for companies like Tianshan Aluminum [28][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][59]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term. As of July 11, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 1.61% to $3,370.3 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF remained stable at 947.6 tons. The World Gold Council reported an increase of $38 billion in global gold ETFs in the first half of the year, with total holdings rising by 397 tons to 3,616 tons. In the medium to long term, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit support a bullish outlook for gold [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: The imminent imposition of tariffs on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase short-term volatility. As of July 11, the LME copper futures contract fell by 1.9% to $9,663 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 143,700 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,900 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 108,700 tons. The announcement of a 50% tariff on all imported copper by Trump, effective August 1, has led to a widening price gap between COMEX and LME copper [5][6][58]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold: The medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to diminishing pressure from interest rate cut expectations and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. The total holdings in gold ETFs have increased significantly, indicating strong demand [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The upcoming tariffs are likely to lead to increased volatility in the copper market. Despite short-term challenges, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and low inventory levels [5][6][58]. - Aluminum: As of July 11, LME aluminum futures rose by 0.2% to $2,602 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly, and the global inventory remains low. The supply-demand dynamics suggest a bullish outlook for aluminum prices in the medium term [6][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining, and for aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][58].