Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [22] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Qianwen APP has fully integrated into Alibaba's ecosystem, enhancing the application scenarios of AI large models. This integration allows for a significant upgrade from "chatting" to assisting users in "doing tasks," showcasing the improvement in model capabilities and the deepening of application scenarios [4][9] - The demonstration effect of the Qianwen APP is expected to accelerate the promotion of large model applications by domestic internet giants, thereby speeding up the application process of large models in China. This acceleration will create a substantial demand for inference computing power, further driving the development of China's domestic computing power industry chain [4][9] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - On January 15, 2026, Alibaba held a product launch for the Qianwen APP in Hangzhou, announcing its full integration with various Alibaba ecosystem services such as Taobao, Alipay, and Fliggy. This integration enables AI shopping functions like ordering takeout and booking flights, marking a global first [4][7] - The Qianwen APP will launch over 400 AI task functions, positioning it as the first AI assistant capable of completing complex real-life tasks, transitioning the AI industry from "chatting" to "doing" [7][9] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index rose by 3.82% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57%, resulting in a 4.39 percentage point advantage [13] - As of the last trading day of the week, the overall P/E ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) for the computer industry was 61.4 times, with 249 out of 359 A-share component stocks rising in price [15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continuous attention to investment opportunities in the AI theme, particularly in AI computing power and AI algorithms and applications. Specific companies recommended include: 1. AI Computing Power: Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, Industrial Fulian, Inspur Information, Unisplendour, Zhongke Shuguang, Digital China, and Deepin Technology [18] 2. AI Algorithms and Applications: Strongly recommended are Hengsheng Electronics, Zhongke Chuangda, and Shengshi Technology, with additional recommendations for Daotong Technology, Kingsoft Office, iFLYTEK, and others [18]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [38] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue and gross margin exceeded guidance, with a significant increase in capital expenditure expected for 2026. In Q4 2025, TSMC achieved revenue of NT$10,460.9 billion (up 20.5% YoY, up 5.7% QoQ), translating to USD 33.73 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of USD 32.2-33.4 billion. The gross margin was 62.3%, up 2.8 percentage points from Q3 [2][5] - For the full year 2025, TSMC reported revenue of NT$38,090.5 billion (up 31.6% YoY), with a gross margin of 59.9% (up 3.8 percentage points YoY) and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion (up 46.4% YoY) [2][5] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was USD 40.9 billion, with expectations for 2026 to reach USD 52-56 billion (median of USD 54 billion), a substantial increase of 32% YoY [2][8] Summary by Sections TSMC Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$10,460.9 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit of NT$5,057.4 billion [5][6] - For the entire year of 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$38,090.5 billion, with a gross margin of 59.9% and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion [5][6] Revenue Structure - In 2025, TSMC's advanced process (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm at 24%, 5nm at 36%, and 7nm at 14% [2][5] - By application, TSMC's revenue from HPC, smartphones, IoT, and automotive grew by 48%, 11%, 15%, and 34% YoY, respectively, making up 58%, 29%, 5%, and 5% of total revenue [2][5] Market Trends - DRAM sellers are hoarding inventory, leading to a 10% increase in mainstream DDR4 prices. The average price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s rose by 9.64% due to suppliers and traders adopting a strategy of withholding stock [12][13] - The demand for AI-related power ICs is growing, and major manufacturers are reducing production, which is expected to lead to price increases in the eight-inch wafer foundry market [20]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The recent reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points is expected to help reduce storage costs and accelerate inventory clearance in commercial properties. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30%, which is anticipated to further decrease the cost of home ownership for residents [3] - The focus on Hong Kong property companies is increasing, with expectations for the Hong Kong real estate market to continue its upward trend in 2026. Key companies such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land have seen cumulative stock price increases of 18.9%, 12.4%, and 13.3% respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant stock price and performance elasticity for major Hong Kong property companies during the market recovery phase, citing historical performance data from previous market cycles [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, with a total of 12,000 units sold. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in January (up to the 16th) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.8% and a month-on-month decline of 46.4% [4] - The inventory of commercial properties in 16 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current inventory of 90.74 million square meters and a clearance cycle of 21.1 months [12] - The real estate sector saw a decline of 3.52% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 60.05, placing it in the 93.83 percentile of the past five years [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Companies with light historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [3] 2. Hong Kong property companies benefiting from market stabilization, including Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Poly Property [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to maintain stability while promoting high-quality development in China's capital markets, particularly following the introduction of new policies since 2024 [3][4] - The 2026 work meeting of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) focuses on enhancing market stability, serving the real economy, strengthening regulation to prevent risks, and improving the value of listed companies [3][4] - The report outlines specific tasks for 2026, including enhancing market stability, promoting long-term capital inflows, and improving regulatory enforcement to ensure fair trading practices [3][6] Group 2 - Policy highlights include the introduction of "timely counter-cyclical adjustments" to prevent significant market fluctuations, reflecting a proactive adaptation to current market conditions [3][6] - The report stresses the importance of long-term capital entering the market and proposes the introduction of various investment products and risk management tools to attract more long-term funds [3][6] - Regulatory enforcement will be strengthened, focusing on serious violations such as financial fraud and market manipulation, with an emphasis on improving accountability and enhancing the effectiveness of regulatory measures [3][7] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of capital market openness, aiming to enhance cross-border investment and financing convenience, and to attract foreign investment [6] - It continues to emphasize the need for reforms in stock and bond financing systems to better serve the real economy, including the integration of various market segments and improving the financing functions of equity and debt markets [6] - The report outlines plans to enhance the governance and value growth of listed companies, including the introduction of new regulations and guidelines to improve corporate governance and accountability [6] Group 4 - The market outlook suggests that the policy deployment will clarify the direction for high-quality development in the capital market, with short-term measures aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and long-term strategies focused on improving company quality and increasing market openness [6] - It is anticipated that the A-share market will exhibit a pattern of "support below and room above," with a shift in market style towards balanced value growth, benefiting quality companies with solid fundamentals and governance [6] - The report recommends investment strategies aligned with policy support and industrial innovation, particularly in sectors benefiting from technological advancements and improving industry dynamics [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in oil prices. WTI crude futures closed up by 1.02% and Brent oil futures by 1.87% during the week of January 9 to January 16, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the U.S., are significant factors affecting oil prices. Iran's oil inventory has reached record levels, equivalent to about 50 days of production, due to Western sanctions [6]. - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain high prosperity due to supply quota constraints and favorable demand driven by policy support. The production quota for HFCs in 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report highlights the increased uncertainty in the Middle East, which is likely to impact oil prices in the short term. The geopolitical situation, including U.S. sanctions and military movements, is a critical factor [6][7]. - The report notes that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile international oil prices [7]. Fluorochemical - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a favorable environment due to supply constraints and policy-driven demand. The production quotas for HFCs have been adjusted, with significant increases in specific categories [6][7]. - The report indicates that the demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, supported by national subsidy policies, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026 [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is on an upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report suggests that there is potential for further price increases in this sector [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in the performance of various segments within the consumer sector, with a stable overall market performance but most sub-sectors underperforming compared to the broader market [4][6]. - There is an expectation for consumer demand to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year, driven by sufficient market liquidity [4]. - The tourism sector is showing potential for growth, with leading companies responding effectively to changing consumer demands [4]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that adapt quickly to market dynamics [4]. - The food and beverage sector is seeing a recovery in supply-demand relationships, particularly in dairy products, while the restaurant supply chain is stabilizing [4]. - In the liquor segment, leading companies are expected to maintain market share despite recent profit adjustments [4]. Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% during the week of January 12-16, with the media sector rising by 3.34% while other sectors like food and beverage and agriculture saw declines of 2.03% and 3.49% respectively [6][8]. Social Services - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [4]. Industry Dynamics - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to enhance structural monetary policy support, which may positively impact consumer spending and economic recovery [10]. - The Philippines has announced visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, which could boost tourism [11]. Company Announcements - Companies like Giant Biological and Proya are making strategic moves, such as product approvals and share buybacks, indicating proactive management in response to market conditions [13][19]. - The report notes significant developments in the liquor industry, including the launch of premium products and partnerships for promotional events [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: As of January 16, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4601.1 per ounce, a month-on-month increase of 1.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.0% to 1086 tons. The U.S. non-farm employment is expected to increase by 50,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4]. - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices experienced a short-term adjustment after a rise. As of January 16, the SHFE copper futures contract fell by 0.63% to 100,770 yuan per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.7% to 23,925 yuan per ton. The tightening supply expectations for copper and the supportive macro environment suggest a potential upward revaluation of copper prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of January 16, 2026, the nonferrous metal index closed at 10,530.11 points, a month-on-month increase of 3.9%. The precious metal index rose by 6.9%, the industrial metal index by 2.8%, and the energy metal index by 2.7%. In contrast, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.57% [10]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The gold price is expected to continue its upward trend due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the weakening dollar credit, enhancing its safe-haven appeal [4][57]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - The domestic copper social inventory reached 320,900 tons as of January 15, with LME copper inventory at 143,600 tons. The tightening supply expectations and the agreement between Rio Tinto and Amazon for copper supply for AI data centers highlight the increasing competition for copper resources [6][7]. 3.2 Aluminum - Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 736,000 tons as of January 15, with LME aluminum inventory at 488,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain high [6]. 3.3 Tin - The SHFE tin futures contract rose by 14.9% to 405,000 yuan per ton as of January 16, driven by supply concerns from the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum. For aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][55].

证券研究报告 A股策略周报 : 稳字当头，蓄势而进 证券分析师 1 近期动态|进出口数据：12月进、出口增长均加快 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 郝思婧 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521070001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026 年 1 月17 日 1 ※ 核心观点|稳字当头，蓄势而进 2 • 上周A股震荡分化，科创成长占优。海外方面，美国通胀表现较平稳，美股窄幅震荡，标普500收跌0.4%。国内方面，进出口和金融数 据稳中向好，央行表态将结构性降息25bp并加大支持力度，资本市场监管更强调"稳字当头"，A股日均成交放量至3.47万亿元，上证 指数收跌0.45%，科创50和中证500领涨（涨幅超2%）；结构上，TMT和有色金属行业表现较好，先进封装、半导体设备概念领涨。 • 海外方面，美国通胀风险暂时可控，地缘不确定性仍需关注。一是美国CPI增长保持平稳，降息预期变化不大。2025年12月美国CPI同 比增2.7%，核心CPI同比增2.6%，增幅均持平前值。CME数据显示利率期货市场仍维持下次降息在6月的定价。二是中东地缘局势尚不 明朗。据新华社，美媒报道称美国正向中东地区增 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In December 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 22,075 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6,462 billion RMB, but higher than the market expectation of 18,200 billion RMB[2] - New RMB loans totaled 9,100 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 2,306 billion RMB[2] - The overall social financing growth rate fell to 8.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from November's 8.5%[3] Group 2: Credit and Loan Trends - Corporate loans increased by 5,800 billion RMB year-on-year, with short-term loans up by 3,900 billion RMB and medium to long-term loans up by 2,900 billion RMB[4] - In contrast, household short-term loans decreased by 1,611 billion RMB and medium to long-term loans decreased by 2,900 billion RMB, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[4] - The total amount of corporate medium to long-term loans in December was 3,300 billion RMB, close to levels seen in 2021 but lower than the 10,000 billion RMB levels of 2022-2023[4] Group 3: Deposit and Monetary Trends - M1 growth rate fell to 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points, while M2 growth rate rose to 8.5%[5] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase of 28,400 billion RMB, while household deposits increased by 3,900 billion RMB[6] - The increase in non-bank deposits was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year and a rise in wealth management products, which grew by 21,000 billion RMB in December[6] Group 4: Market Implications and Strategies - The trend of "deposit migration" is accelerating, with indicators showing increased household deposit activity and a shift towards wealth management and insurance products[7] - The stock market showed signs of recovery in January 2026, with increased retail investor participation and a high level of margin financing[7] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential for structural monetary policy adjustments and a focus on credit growth in the first quarter[9]

债券 2026 年 01 月 16 日 公募 REITs 系列 商业不动产+基础设施，共塑 REITs 新格局 证券分析师 平安观点 债 券 报 告 债 券 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 liulu979@ pingan.com.cn 陈蔚宁 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070001 chenweining369@ pingan.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 31 日，证监会、交易所推出一系列公募 REITs 管理办法（以下 简称"新规"），为 REITs 市场体系建设提供方向，并将商业不动产纳入监管体 系。自此，我国 REITs 市场进入"商业不动产+基础设施"并行发展的新阶段。 市场框架方面，供给端扩容扩围、提高审批效率，需求端推动中长期资金入市。 供给端，一是将商业不动产纳入公募 REITs 体系，形成 "商业不动产 + 基础 设施" 并行发展格局。二是放宽扩募限制，将再次购入资产的时间间隔从 12 个月缩至 6 个月，取消运营业绩限制性要求，市场有望通过扩募、合并等方式 出现一批"大而优"的龙头 REITs 产品。三 ...