证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——1月人民币贷款余额增速回落、交易所优化再融资举措 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月24日 1 核心观点 央行公布26年1月金融统计数据、沪深北交易所优化再融资举措 1、央行公布2026年1月金融统计数据。2月13日，央行发布2026年1月金融统计数据。1月末，新增人民币贷款4.71万亿元， 同比少增4200亿元，余额同比增速 6.1%，其中企（事）业单位贷款是主要支撑，住户贷款增长偏弱。社会融资规模增量达 7.22万亿元，超出市场预期，同比多增1662亿元，社融余额同比增速8.2%，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款仍是社融主力， 企业债券和政府债券融资同比明显多增。M2同比增长9.0%，M1同比增长4.9%，M0同比增长2.7%，整体货币环境保持宽松， 为稳增长提供了有力支撑。 2、央行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》。2月10日，央行 ...

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000 jobs, marking the highest monthly increase since July 2025[4] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the anticipated 4.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than expected[9] Labor Market Dynamics - Job growth was primarily driven by the education and healthcare sectors (+137,000) and construction (+33,000), while other sectors showed limited or negative growth[5] - The labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.5%, with the prime working age group (25-54 years) participation rising to 84.1%[11] Job Vacancies and Demand - Job vacancies decreased by 386,000 in December, leading to a vacancy rate of 3.9%, suggesting a continued decline in labor demand[11] - The Challenger Job Cut Index rose to 108,400 in January, indicating an increase in layoffs, although still within the range observed since April 2025[22] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the employment data release, expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026 significantly diminished, with the probability of a June rate cut dropping from 75.2% to 59.6%[25] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.47 basis points to 4.18% after the data release, reflecting market reactions to the stronger-than-expected employment figures[25] Inflation Outlook - The upcoming January CPI inflation data is critical, with market expectations suggesting potential seasonal factors may lead to higher-than-expected inflation[26] - If inflation does not cool down, the outlook for interest rate cuts in 2026 may face further challenges, although the overall expectation for two rate cuts in the second half remains unchanged[26]

Macro Perspective - Since 2025, China's economy has increasingly shown characteristics of "new and superior" development, with new productive forces being cultivated and diverse consumer preferences becoming more prominent[3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.0% in January 2026, consistently outperforming the overall manufacturing PMI of 49.3%[21] - High-tech industries' added value grew by 11.0% year-on-year in December 2025, exceeding the overall industrial enterprises' growth by 5.8 percentage points[21] Industry Perspective - Investment in advanced manufacturing, such as aerospace and automotive, grew by 16.9% and 11.7% respectively, outpacing overall manufacturing investment growth[25] - The information technology service sector saw an investment increase of 28.4%, maintaining over 25% growth for 11 consecutive months[25] - The revenue growth of strategic emerging services was 9.9%, while high-tech services grew by 8.6%, both surpassing the overall service sector growth of 7.8%[24] Market Perspective - As of January 2026, the market capitalization weight of the A-share information and communication sector reached 24%, surpassing financial and real estate sectors at 19%[3] - The market capitalization of A-share new economy MAG7 stocks is below that of US MAG7 stocks (20%+) and Hong Kong stocks (10+%), indicating room for growth[3] - The performance of A-share strategic emerging industries showed a profit growth of 15.5%, exceeding the overall non-financial A-share sector's growth of 13.8%[38] Outlook and Risks - The transition from old to new economic drivers is expected to accelerate, positioning new economic sectors as the main growth engine for China's economy[3] - Key investment areas include technology innovation and advanced manufacturing, particularly in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals[3] - Risks include potential market learning effects, unexpected tightening of macro and industrial policies, and significant changes in macroeconomic conditions and liquidity[3]

Export Trends - In 2025, China's export share remained stable at 13.6%, only down 0.7 percentage points from 2024, demonstrating global competitiveness[3] - The U.S. market accounted for 11.1% of China's exports, a decrease of approximately 3.5 percentage points from 2024, contributing to a 2.9% drag on overall export growth[3] - ASEAN, the EU, and Africa emerged as significant markets, with ASEAN's share rising to 17.6% and the EU's to 14.8%, offsetting declines in U.S. exports[10] Product Structure - The export structure showed a strong influence from overseas AI investments, with electric machinery and components contributing 2.3% to export growth in 2025[33] - The automotive sector, driven by Chinese EV companies, added approximately 0.7% to export growth, while traditional labor-intensive products negatively impacted exports by 0.6%[3] - Exports of intermediate and capital goods, particularly chemicals and machinery, performed well, contributing 1.2% to overall export growth[3] Import Dynamics - China's imports showed signs of recovery starting in Q2 2025, with significant contributions from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea[3] - High-tech intermediate goods, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products were the main drivers of import growth, reflecting a shift towards higher value-added imports[3] - The overall import growth rate was 0.5% in 2025, with a notable decline in traditional energy imports and a focus on high-tech products[3] Future Outlook - For 2026, global trade is expected to continue expanding, albeit at a slower rate, with strong support for China's exports in non-U.S. markets[3] - Domestic demand is anticipated to show a mix of new and old growth drivers, with continued expansion of trade partnerships contributing to import growth[3] - Import prices are projected to rise moderately, leading to a gentle increase in overall import growth rates[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite network is being established, and direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services will be crucial for the integration of space and ground communication. This service allows mobile phones to connect directly to communication satellites without intermediary devices, providing voice, text, and data exchange services [3][4]. - The report identifies three technical routes for mobile direct connection, with the 3GPP NTN standard recognized as the future direction. The three routes include: 1. "New Phone + Old Satellite" - integrating dedicated satellite communication modules into smartphones, relying on existing satellite systems [11]. 2. "Old Phone + New Satellite" - using existing mobile communication technology to connect current 4G/5G phones directly to satellites [11]. 3. "New Phone + New Satellite" - following the 3GPP NTN standard, creating new low Earth orbit constellations that work with ground 5G networks [11][9]. - The global mobile direct connection industry is advancing rapidly, with significant developments from international players like SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile. In January, a partnership between Globe Telecom and Starlink marked the launch of DTC services in Southeast Asia, covering approximately 4% of the population in areas without ground network coverage [14][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of mobile direct connection satellites as a key entry point for connecting the general public to space-based networks, highlighting the expected growth in demand for phased array antennas, terminal communication chips, and modules [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the ongoing establishment of low Earth orbit satellite networks and the role of mobile direct connection satellites in expanding communication capabilities, addressing gaps in ground network coverage [3][4]. Technical Routes - Three main technical routes for mobile direct connection are outlined, with the 3GPP NTN standard being the most promising for future development [9][11]. International Developments - Significant progress in the mobile direct connection sector is noted, with various international companies making strides in D2D technology and partnerships [14][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong outlook for the mobile direct connection satellite sector within China's commercial aerospace industry, recommending a focus on investment opportunities in this area [17].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The impact of the Spring Festival on CPI was significant, with food prices contributing a decrease of approximately 0.11 percentage points[1] - Core CPI growth narrowed by 0.4 percentage points to 0.8% compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January 2026, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[1] - PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The rise in international non-ferrous metal prices contributed 0.34 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI increase[1]

Economic Outlook - The report expresses stronger confidence in the Chinese economy, stating it is "overall stable, with progress in high-quality development," while acknowledging challenges such as "strong supply and weak demand" [4] - The goal of "supporting the 14th Five-Year Plan for a good start" replaces the previous focus on "sustaining growth, employment, and expectations" [4] Monetary Policy - The main tone of monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5] - The report indicates that the central bank will guide financial institutions to strengthen project reserves and credit issuance, reflecting a continued demand for credit growth [3] Currency and Financial Instruments - The report acknowledges the increased flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, with an expected appreciation of 4.4% against the USD by the end of 2025 [5] - By the end of 2025, the balance of asset management products sourced from the real sector is projected to reach CNY 56.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [6] Asset Management Trends - Over 80% of asset management products are directed towards fixed-income assets, with a significant increase in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, indicating a shift in investment strategy [6] - The proportion of asset management products allocated to fixed-income assets has risen by over 20 percentage points compared to the previous year, suggesting potential for future capital inflow into the stock market [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][65]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: As of February 6, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4,988.60 per ounce, a 1.65% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 0.1% to 1,076 tons. Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to unresolved U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4]. - Industrial Metals: Industrial metals experienced a decline during the week. Copper prices fell by 3.45% to 100,100 yuan/ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 335,800 tons as of February 5. Aluminum prices dropped by 5.1% to 23,315 yuan/ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 836,000 tons. Tin prices decreased by 12.7% to 357,000 yuan/ton, with domestic social inventory at 9,389 tons. The demand for tin is expected to grow due to advancements in AI technology [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of February 6, 2026, the nonferrous metal index closed at 10,463.08 points, down 9.2% month-on-month. The precious metal index fell 17.4%, the industrial metal index decreased by 9.5%, and the energy metal index dropped by 3.9% [10]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend anticipated due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the weakening of the dollar's credit [4][64]. 3. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The supply bottleneck is expected to persist, with long-term price support anticipated due to increasing demand from AI applications. Short-term price fluctuations are expected [6]. - **Aluminum**: The market is characterized by tight supply and strong demand, with a positive long-term outlook for aluminum prices [6]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to benefit from increased demand due to its role in AI technology, despite recent price declines [6]. 4. Energy Metals - Lithium prices and inventory levels are being monitored closely, with significant fluctuations expected in the market [47]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tianshan Aluminum [7][64].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [36] Core Insights - The space economy has a broad outlook, with commercial aerospace becoming a vital engine for economic growth and technological advancement, forming a competitive landscape among major global economies [4][9] - The global commercial aerospace market is expected to reach USD 500 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, driven by low Earth orbit satellite networks, reusable rockets, and space economy derivative businesses [4][9] - China has submitted an application for 203,000 low Earth orbit satellite frequency resources, indicating a competitive race for orbital resources, with a consensus that the safe deployment limit is approximately 100,000 satellites [15][4] - The global rocket launch service market reached USD 16.45 billion in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2023 to 2032, driven by large satellite constellation projects [26][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global commercial aerospace market is entering a phase of "scale deployment, commercial deepening, and global competition," with significant growth expected in low Earth orbit satellite networks and reusable rockets [4][9] - The domestic commercial aerospace industry is optimizing resource allocation and expanding market applications, with a focus on satellite constellation construction [4][9] Industry Chain - The commercial aerospace industry chain includes multiple segments from research and development, manufacturing, launching, to application services, with upstream focusing on satellite and rocket components, midstream on rocket assembly and launch services, and downstream on satellite operations [10][4] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the aerospace industry are expected to benefit from the ongoing growth, with key players identified including Aerospace Power, Aerospace Hongtu, China Satellite, and others [34][4]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [25] Core Insights - The era of aerospace infrastructure is emerging, with laser interconnectivity constructing a space information highway. The rapid development of commercial aerospace companies like SpaceX and China's Xingwang is leading to the integration of isolated satellites and spacecraft into an efficient, intelligent, large-scale network. Laser inter-satellite links are a key technology in this field, enabling high-capacity, low-latency, and interference-resistant communication, which is expected to benefit significantly from the growth of commercial aerospace [4][5]. - The satellite laser communication industry chain is collaborating from laser devices to optical components. The upstream includes optical components, lasers, detectors, and precision mechanical structures; the midstream consists of laser communication terminal integrators, which supply downstream satellite platform companies. Both domestic and international companies are actively participating, with notable foreign players like SpaceX launching 3,190 Starlink V2 mini satellites in 2025, each equipped with four laser communication terminals [4][21]. - Investment recommendations highlight the increasing number of satellite launches and the accelerated deployment of satellite constellation plans, indicating a critical transition from technology validation to large-scale application for space high-speed communication networks. Satellite laser communication technology, with its advantages of high communication speed, strong anti-interference capability, good confidentiality, and low power consumption, is expected to become a mainstream technology, benefiting industry chain companies such as Aerospace Electronics, Changguang Huaxin, and others [4][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global satellite landscape is characterized by a concentration of leading players, with the United States, Russia, and China forming the top tier. As of December 2025, the U.S. leads with 11,617 satellites in orbit, followed by Russia with 1,551 and China with 1,083. China's satellite launch numbers are steadily increasing, with 377 spacecraft launched in 2025, including 309 commercial satellites, marking a year-on-year increase of 54% [11][12]. Market Potential - The global satellite laser communication market is projected to reach $1.47 billion in 2026 and grow to $26.81 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 38.23% from 2026 to 2035. The U.S. market is expected to be $340 million in 2025, while China's market is projected at $320 million [16]. Competitive Landscape - The U.S. is currently one of the fastest-growing countries in satellite laser communication, having completed technology validation in deep space communication. SpaceX has integrated laser communication payloads in its Starlink satellites, achieving data transmission rates exceeding 100 Mbit/s. In contrast, China has made significant advancements in laser communication technology over the past 20 years, achieving notable milestones such as the first satellite laser communication verification in 2011 [20][21].