Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on the domestic AI industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The TMT sector has shown strong performance, with the overall weekly increase of the TMT sector outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [3]. - DeepSeek's R1 model has been released, demonstrating competitive performance compared to OpenAI's models, and significantly lower API pricing, which is expected to enhance cost efficiency for applications [3][18]. - The surge in user demand for DeepSeek's services is anticipated to drive domestic computing power needs, suggesting potential investment opportunities in semiconductor foundries, cloud service providers, and related sectors [3][24]. Weekly Market Review - The TMT sector's weekly performance from January 20 to January 27, 2025, showed a rise in the computer sector by 2.43%, media by 2.03%, and communication by 1.06%, while electronics saw a slight decline of 0.18% [3]. - Notable sub-sectors with significant gains included horizontal general software (8.72%), educational publishing (6.93%), and communication terminals and accessories (5.06%) [3]. - Top-performing stocks included Han's Information (61.37%), PuLian Software (58.99%), and CaiXun Co. (44.45%) in the computer sector [3][13]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - DeepSeek's R1 model was launched on January 20, 2025, showcasing its capabilities in various tasks and offering significantly lower API pricing compared to competitors [18]. - The demand for DeepSeek's services has led to a spike in server usage, indicating a growing need for domestic computing power solutions [3][24]. - Major cloud service providers, including Huawei Cloud and Tencent Cloud, have integrated DeepSeek's R1 model into their offerings, enhancing accessibility for developers [22][24]. AI Model Developments - DeepSeek's R1 model has been noted for its performance in mathematical, coding, and natural language tasks, with a pricing structure that is 27-55 times lower than OpenAI's offerings [18]. - The introduction of new multi-modal frameworks by DeepSeek, such as Janus-Pro, has further positioned the company as a competitive player in the AI space [18]. - The report highlights the trend of decreasing API/token prices, which is expected to accelerate the diversification of AI applications [24].

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 5 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 装备制造 [Table_Title] 机器人亮相春晚促行业发展进入快车道 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（2 月第 1 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾 ummary] ： 春节前最后 6 个交易日机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指数 涨跌幅分别为+0.02%、-0.74%及+0.7%，在 31 个申万一级行业 中排名分别为第 12、21、7 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为+0.12%。 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Q4 GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding market expectations of 5% and contributing to an annual GDP growth of 5%[22] - December industrial value-added output grew by 6.2%, surpassing the expected 5.5%[22] - December retail sales increased by 3.7%, slightly above the expected 3.5%[22] Trade and Export Data - December exports rose by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 7.5%, while imports grew by 1%, against an expected decline of 1%[10] - The trade surplus for December was $104.84 billion, higher than the anticipated $100 billion[10] Financial Data Insights - December new RMB loans totaled 990 billion, compared to 1.17 trillion in the same month last year, and above the forecast of 843 billion[16] - Social financing in December was 2.86 trillion, significantly higher than the previous year's 1.93 trillion and the expected 2.10 trillion[16] Market Reactions and Trends - The stock market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.73%[9] - The bond market experienced a rise in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 2.25 basis points[9] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks including slower-than-expected recovery in the economy and tighter-than-expected monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[5] - There are concerns regarding the impact of potential trade frictions on market sentiment and economic performance[5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on the domestic semiconductor self-controllable industry chain [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry due to intensified U.S. sanctions against China, particularly in AI chips, smart driving, and advanced process chip foundry [4]. - TSMC's optimistic outlook on AI-related revenue growth, projecting a 45% CAGR over the next five years, is expected to alleviate market concerns regarding the sustainability of AI growth [4]. Weekly Market Review - The TMT sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with notable weekly gains in sub-sectors such as marketing agency (13.17%), analog chip design (10.26%), and communication network equipment (8.70%) [4]. - Top-performing stocks in the electronics sector included Jin'an International (44.71%), Qingyi Optoelectronics (34.91%), and Shengbang Co. (26.39%) [4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The U.S. government has intensified semiconductor restrictions against China, emphasizing the need to focus on domestic self-controllable industry chains, including semiconductor foundry and advanced packaging [4]. - TSMC's earnings call indicated that AI will be a major growth driver, with overall revenue expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% over the next five years [4]. - Significant events in January included the release of new AI models and advancements in AI applications, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the AI sector [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for various sectors within the equipment manufacturing industry, particularly engineering machinery and wind power [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing stable growth in external demand and structural improvement in internal demand, with 11 out of 12 major products showing year-on-year export growth in December 2024 [3]. - The automotive sector's wholesale sales in the first two weeks of January 2025 maintained year-on-year growth, but showed a decline compared to the previous month, indicating potential pressure on sales due to the Lunar New Year [3]. - The wind power industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with projected new installed capacity in China for 2025 estimated between 105GW and 115GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.31% to 30.68% [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the week of January 13-17, 2025, the indices for machinery equipment, electric power equipment, and automotive sectors increased by 5.37%, 3.66%, and 4.57% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 2.14% [8][10]. Industry Data - The engineering machinery sector's internal demand is expected to improve due to favorable domestic economic policies, with a notable increase in the operational workload and construction rates [3]. - The automotive sector is projected to benefit from new policies encouraging vehicle scrappage and trade-ins, which may support higher sales throughout 2025 despite short-term pressures [3]. - The wind power sector's project approvals increased significantly in 2024, providing strong support for future installation demands [3]. Company Announcements - Various companies within the industry are making strategic moves, such as partnerships for developing new technologies and products, indicating a proactive approach to market opportunities [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights a positive market trend with a 2.67% increase in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing enhancement of payment policies in the healthcare sector, particularly the introduction of a new category (Category C) for high-value innovative drugs that are currently not included in the basic medical insurance directory. This is expected to boost the payment capacity for innovative treatments such as cell and gene therapies [2][10]. - The report notes a decrease in flu-like cases reported by sentinel hospitals in southern and northern provinces, indicating a potential peak in flu cases [2][10]. Market Weekly Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 2.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 index (2.14%) but underperforming the Wind All A index (3.61%). Small-cap stocks remain favored [7]. - The best-performing sector was medical consumables, which increased by 5.03%, followed by hospitals (3.2%) and pharmaceutical distribution (2.61%). The only sector that declined was offline pharmacies, which fell by 0.47% [7][8]. - Notable individual stock performances included Dabo Medical (21.74% increase), Changshan Pharmaceutical (18.88% increase), and Ailisi (18.54% increase). Conversely, Pulley Pharmaceutical (-15.63%), Kangwei Century (-14.19%), and Jiudian Pharmaceutical (-11.23%) saw the largest declines [9][10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced plans to release the first version of the Category C medical insurance directory within 2025, focusing on innovative drugs with significant clinical value [10][15]. - The report highlights various company announcements, including Johnson & Johnson's acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies for approximately $14.6 billion and Eli Lilly's acquisition of Scorpion Therapeutics' PI3Kα inhibitor project [18][19]. - The report also mentions the financial performance forecasts of several companies, indicating a mixed outlook with some companies expecting losses while others anticipate revenue growth [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on recent trends and developments in the consumer sector. Core Insights - The influx of overseas users into Xiaohongshu is beneficial for quality brand merchants, with a significant increase in active users from the U.S. from approximately 300,000 to nearly 3.4 million in just one week [2][4]. - The report highlights strong performance in various consumer sectors, with notable stock price increases in food and beverage, home appliances, and retail sectors [4][14]. - The pet supplies market is projected to maintain high growth, with companies like Zhongchong Co. and Yiyi Co. forecasting substantial profit increases for 2024 [4][16]. Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad increase, with social services, retail, beauty care, textiles, food and beverage, and home appliances rising by 6.39%, 4.67%, 4.34%, 3.16%, 2.10%, and 0.03% respectively, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.14% [4][14]. - Leading stocks included Laiyifen (+31.79%), Huoxingren (+21.42%), and Aimer (+46.05%), while the biggest losers were Dongpeng Beverage (-12.26%) and Tongxing Technology (-9.26%) [4][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report notes a significant increase in inbound travel to China, with 610 million entries and exits recorded in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.9% [16][18]. - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to stimulate cultural and tourism consumption, which may positively impact the consumer sector [16][19]. - Companies like Yiyi Co. and Zhongchong Co. are expected to see substantial profit growth in 2024, with Yiyi Co. projecting a net profit increase of 91.76%-117.91% [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the Chinese economy, with expectations of continued deflation and a projected GDP deflator index of -0.2% in 2025, marking the longest deflationary period since the 1960s [1][5]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is currently experiencing its longest deflationary cycle since the 1960s, with predictions of negative GDP deflator indices for three consecutive years [1][2]. - Economists emphasize the urgent need for fiscal stimulus to combat deflation, with a gradual implementation expected [3]. - The real estate crisis has significantly impacted household wealth, leading to a consumption decline, despite potential boosts from exports and retail improvements [3][4]. - The GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 4.9%, driven by government stimulus, but industrial output may outpace retail recovery due to ongoing demand-supply imbalances [4]. - The report highlights a structural issue where many companies maintain or expand production despite low or negative profitability, which is unlikely to change soon [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The GDP deflator index is expected to remain negative for the seventh consecutive quarter, matching records from the late 1990s [5]. - Predictions for the GDP deflator index show a gradual recovery, reaching 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 [5]. Impact of Deflation - Negative GDP deflator indices and weak nominal GDP growth are anticipated to directly harm corporate profits and fiscal revenues, leading to broader economic damage [6]. - Long-term deflation poses risks to business and consumer behavior, potentially leading to reduced spending and a vicious cycle of economic decline [8]. Sector-Specific Insights - The housing and manufacturing sectors are currently under the most deflationary pressure, while service sectors like hospitality are showing price resilience [10]. - Weak domestic demand is expected to hinder any significant price recovery, even if some weaker industry players exit the market [11].

Macroeconomic Overview - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average transaction volume of 1,142.1 billion CNY, down 192.6 billion CNY from the previous week[10] - December CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, matching expectations, while PPI decreased by 2.3%, also in line with forecasts[11] - Core CPI showed a slight upward trend for three consecutive months, indicating marginally positive signals despite ongoing food price pressures[12] Policy and Market Reactions - The central bank announced a pause in government bond purchases, leading to delayed expectations for monetary easing due to recent RMB depreciation[10] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December exceeded expectations, with an increase of 256,000 jobs, leading to a reduction in the anticipated timeline for Fed rate cuts[18] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted to after June 2025, with the total number of cuts for the year reduced to less than two[19] Investment and Economic Indicators - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes subsidies for digital products, with limits set on individual item prices and subsidy amounts, which did not exceed market expectations overall[10] - The bond market saw rising yields, particularly in the short end, influenced by regulatory concerns and the central bank's actions[10] - Key upcoming data to watch includes China's December financial data, trade figures, and Q4 GDP, which are critical for assessing economic recovery[21]

Group 1: Influenza Surveillance Data - The positive rate of influenza virus detection in southern provinces increased to 24.5%, while in northern provinces it reached 32.8%, resulting in a national average of 28.6%[9] - A total of 171 influenza-like illness (ILI) outbreaks were reported nationwide during the 52nd week of 2024[12] - The ILI percentage in southern provinces was reported at 5.7%, up from 4.7% the previous week, and higher than the 2021 level of 4.1%[7] - In northern provinces, the ILI percentage was 7.2%, an increase from 6.4% the previous week, and higher than the 2021-2023 levels[15] Group 2: Pathogen Monitoring - From April 1 to December 29, 2024, 1844 strains (97.0%) of A(H1N1)pdm09 were similar to A/Victoria/4897/2022, while 392 strains (56.0%) of A(H3N2) were similar to A/Thailand/8/2022[4] - Among 141 A(H1N1)pdm09 strains analyzed, 100% were found to be similar to A/Victoria/4897/2022[11] - Resistance monitoring indicated that 88 strains (95.7%) of A(H1N1)pdm09 were sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors, while 4 strains (4.3%) showed reduced sensitivity[31] Group 3: Outbreak Overview - Nationwide, 684 ILI outbreaks were reported from April 1 to December 29, 2024, with 520 attributed to A(H1N1)pdm09[34] - The southern provinces reported 388 outbreaks, significantly lower than the 2309 outbreaks reported in the same period of 2023[34] - The northern provinces reported 296 outbreaks, also lower than the 468 outbreaks reported in 2023[34] Group 4: Global Influenza Activity - In the northern hemisphere, influenza activity has increased in several regions, particularly with A(H1N1)pdm09 and B type viruses[44] - The World Organization for Animal Health reported 21 high-pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks globally during the week of December 22-28, 2024[40]