大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 7 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 关税超预期，预计内需政策刺激加大 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（4 月第 1 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 讯 1) 清明节前四个交易日（3/31-4/3）大消费板块表现分化。社会服 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 07 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 "对等关税"超预期放大市场波动 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（4 月第 1 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面恢复不及预期、贸易摩擦超预期升级。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，市场波动率持续处于 下行通道，沪深两市成交量连续回落，上涨弹性受到抑制的同 时，市场在面对超预期关税等利空冲击时跌幅也有限。基本 面方 ...

执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 1-2 月工业企业利润稳健回升 宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 31 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，监管趋严，叠加 财报季临近，加速题材股退潮，小盘股调整。基本面方面， 1-2 月规模以上工业企业营收与利润增速稳健回升，但价格拖 累下中枢仍低。结构上，有色金属链、"两新"政策相关板块 表现较好，建筑产业链表现较差。产成品库存从去年 8 月回落 以来再度回升，补库趋势待验证；企业负债意愿小幅上行。 海外方面，美国将在 4 月 3 日开始对所有未在美国制造的汽 车加征永久性 25%的关税，从高频出口运价数据来看，关税冲 击在 3 月或已有所显现，且当前内需表现虽然不弱，但仍然有 所分化，新的关税冲击对基本面预期产生压力。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [T ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [30]. Core Insights - The TMT sector experienced a decline in the week from March 24 to March 28, with the overall sector underperforming the CSI 300 index. The media sector fell by 1.39%, electronics by 2.07%, communications by 3.87%, and computers by 4.89%. Notably, the education publishing and electronic chemicals sub-industries saw gains of 2.65% and 2.43%, respectively, while communication engineering and services dropped by 8.41% [3][11]. - Recent updates from leading AI models, including DeepSeek, Google, and OpenAI, indicate significant advancements in model capabilities. DeepSeek's new version V3-0324 shows improvements in reasoning tasks and cost control, while Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro leads in various benchmarks. OpenAI's GPT-4o introduces new features for image output and multi-turn dialogue, suggesting a competitive landscape that fosters investment opportunities in AI applications [3][16][18]. - The report highlights a growing investment opportunity in AI-related fields such as AI office, AI education, and AI gaming, driven by the narrowing performance gap between domestic and international AI models [3][16]. Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector's performance from March 24 to March 28 showed a decline across major industries, with specific stocks like 泰凌微 and 读客文化 demonstrating significant weekly gains of 25.48% and 21.60%, respectively [3][10][12][13]. - The report provides detailed weekly performance metrics for various sub-industries within the TMT sector, indicating a mixed performance landscape with notable winners and losers [3][11][12][13]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Key events in the industry include the release of new AI models and significant corporate announcements, such as OpenAI's expected revenue growth and Google's introduction of advanced AI capabilities [16][18][19]. - The report notes various corporate earnings announcements, with companies like 生益电子 and 中芯国际 reporting substantial year-on-year profit changes, reflecting the dynamic nature of the industry [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it indicates a positive outlook for specific sectors such as engineering machinery and humanoid robots, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector in China shows continued improvement, with the market index reaching 128.56 in March 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.28% and a month-on-month increase of 20.51% [3]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow as component costs decrease, with a significant presence of component manufacturers at the recent ITES exhibition in Shenzhen [3]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing growth in inverter exports, particularly to Asian markets, with a total export value of 7.632 billion yuan in January-February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.97% [3]. Market Overview - The mechanical equipment, power equipment, and automotive industry indices experienced declines of -3.49%, -1.70%, and -1.03% respectively during the week of March 24-28, 2025, ranking 12th, 17th, and 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [1][8]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, while wind power equipment and automotive services saw significant declines [10]. Industry Data - The engineering machinery market index indicates a strong recovery, with a notable increase in excavator operating hours by 14.94% year-on-year in March 2025 [3]. - The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth, driven by advancements in component manufacturing and cost reductions [3]. - The photovoltaic inverter export market is bolstered by demand from countries like India and Pakistan, as well as large-scale projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the growth in the domestic engineering machinery market, with the China Machinery Index (CMI) reaching 128.56 in March 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.28% and a month-on-month increase of 20.51%, indicating a sustained upward trend in market sentiment [3]. - The humanoid robot sector is expected to grow as component costs decrease, with a significant number of component manufacturers participating in the recent ITES exhibition, suggesting a positive development trend for the supply chain [3]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing growth in inverter exports, with a total export value of 7.632 billion yuan in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.97%. The Asian market, particularly India and Pakistan, is driving demand due to unstable power grids [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - From March 24 to March 28, 2025, the indices for mechanical equipment, electric power equipment, and automotive industries decreased by 3.49%, 1.70%, and 1.03%, respectively, ranking 12th, 17th, and 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [8][10]. Industry Insights 1. **Engineering Machinery**: The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in excavator operating hours by 14.94% year-on-year in March 2025, indicating a positive construction activity trend [3]. 2. **Humanoid Robots**: The ITES exhibition showcased over 600 companies, indicating a robust interest in automation and robotics, with a focus on reducing component costs to accelerate commercialization [3]. 3. **Photovoltaics**: The report notes a significant increase in inverter exports to Asia, with January exports reaching 1.679 billion yuan (up 35.05% year-on-year) and February exports at 1.195 billion yuan (up 25.10% year-on-year) [3]. Company Announcements - **Chuaneng Power** announced plans to invest in a 300MW photovoltaic project in Aba, with a total investment not exceeding 1.395 billion yuan [17]. - **Wolde** is expanding its market for ball screw processing tools, with some revenue expected in 2024 [17]. - **Zhongji Group** reported a 39.01% increase in revenue for 2024, reaching approximately 177.664 billion yuan, with a significant rise in container manufacturing and marine engineering orders [18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a weekly increase of 0.98%, outperforming the Wind All A index, which decreased by 1.29%, and the CSI 300 index, which remained flat at 0.01% [4][9] - The report highlights the continuous rise in large overseas business development (BD) activities for innovative drugs, indicating an acceleration in the domestic innovative drug pipeline and an enhancement in global competitiveness [4][13] - A new policy from the Sichuan Provincial Health Commission aims to streamline the clinical application of innovative drugs, addressing barriers to hospital admission and clinical use [4][12] Market Weekly Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector increased by 0.98% from March 24 to March 28, outperforming the Wind All A index (-1.29%) and the CSI 300 index (0.01%) [9] - The chemical preparations sector led the gains with a 4.59% increase, while hospitals (-3.58%), pharmaceutical distribution (-0.99%), and medical devices (-0.94%) experienced declines [9][10] - Top-performing stocks included Yihe Jiaye (28.58%), Rundu Co. (21.83%), and Zhixiang Jintai (18.34%), while the largest declines were seen in Xiangxue Pharmaceutical (-40.82%), Innovation Medical (-22.74%), and Dongfang Ocean (-22.34%) [9][12] Industry News and Key Company Announcements Important Industry Events - On March 26, a notification was issued by the Sichuan Provincial Health Commission and other departments to promote the clinical application of innovative drugs, outlining nine measures to facilitate the process [4][12] Industry News - On March 25, Heng Rui Medicine announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Merck for its oral small molecule project HRS-5346, with an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.77 billion [4][13] - On March 24, Federated Pharmaceuticals signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, a long-acting GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR triple agonist, with similar financial terms [4][14] Company Announcements - Maiwei Bio signed a supplementary agreement with Junshi Biosciences regarding the marketing rights for Adalimumab injection in mainland China [4][14] - Notai Bio expects a net profit of 130 million to 170 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 96% to 156% [4][14] - Mai Pu Medical received EU MDR certification for its dura mater medical glue, enhancing its product offerings in neurosurgery [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a weekly increase of 0.98%, outperforming the Wind All A index which decreased by 1.29% and the CSI 300 index which remained flat at 0.01% [4][9] - The report highlights the continuous rise in overseas business development (BD) activities for innovative drugs, with significant licensing agreements being made, indicating an acceleration in the domestic innovative drug pipeline and an enhancement in global competitiveness [4][13] - A new policy from the Sichuan Provincial Health Commission aims to streamline the clinical application of innovative drugs, addressing barriers to hospital admission and encouraging the inclusion of innovative drugs in commercial insurance [4][12] Weekly Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector increased by 0.98% from March 24 to March 28, outperforming the Wind All A index which fell by 1.29% and the CSI 300 index which saw a slight increase of 0.01% [9] - The chemical preparations sector led the gains with a 4.59% increase, while hospitals, pharmaceutical distribution, and medical devices experienced declines of -3.58%, -0.99%, and -0.94% respectively [9][10] - Top-performing stocks included Yihe Jiaye (28.58%), Rundu Co. (21.83%), and Zhixiang Jintai (18.34%), while the largest declines were seen in Xiangxue Pharmaceutical (-40.82%), Innovation Medical (-22.74%), and Dongfang Ocean (-22.34%) [9][12] Industry News and Key Company Announcements - On March 26, a joint notice was issued by the Sichuan Provincial Health Commission and other departments to promote the clinical application of innovative drugs, outlining nine measures to facilitate the process [4][12] - On March 25, Heng Rui Medicine announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Merck for its Lp(a) oral small molecule project, HRS-5346, with an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.77 billion [4][13][14] - On March 24, Federated Pharmaceuticals signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, a long-acting GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR triple agonist, with similar financial terms [4][13][14]

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 31 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 头部潮玩品牌年报展现强劲增长 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（3 月第 4 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：政策落地不及预期、国际消费环境波动、市场风格切 换风险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 讯 [T ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [30]. Core Insights - The TMT sector experienced a decline in the week from March 24 to March 28, with the overall sector underperforming the CSI 300 index. The media sector fell by 1.39%, electronics by 2.07%, communications by 3.87%, and computers by 4.89%. Notably, the education publishing and electronic chemicals III sub-industries saw gains of 2.65% and 2.43%, respectively, while communication engineering and services dropped by 8.41% [3][11]. - Recent updates from leading AI models, including DeepSeek, Google, and OpenAI, indicate significant advancements in model capabilities. DeepSeek's new version V3-0324 shows improvements in reasoning tasks and cost control, outperforming competitors in certain areas while maintaining lower API costs. Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro has achieved top rankings in various benchmarks, showcasing its multi-modal capabilities. OpenAI's GPT-4o has introduced image output features, enhancing its competitive edge [3][16][18]. - The rapid advancements in AI models are expected to create investment opportunities in application sectors such as AI office solutions, education, and gaming, as the performance gap between domestic and international models narrows [3][16]. Weekly Market Review - The TMT sector's performance from March 24 to March 28 showed a decline across major industries, with specific stocks like 泰凌微 (25.48%), 至纯科技 (23.92%), and 读客文化 (21.60%) leading in gains, while others like *ST 东晶 (-13.78%) and *ST 迪威 (-10.86%) faced significant losses [3][10][12][13]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Key events in the industry include the launch of new AI models and significant company announcements, such as OpenAI's expected revenue growth to $12.7 billion in 2025 and the introduction of various AI applications by companies like Xiaomi and Huawei [16][19][25]. - The report highlights the increasing investment in AI infrastructure and applications, with various companies announcing new projects and collaborations aimed at enhancing their AI capabilities [19][24].