子行业评级 2025 年 06 月 24 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250624）：北京土拍收金 20.8 亿元 (20%) (6%) 8% 22% 36% 50% 24/6/6 24/8/17 24/10/28 25/1/8 25/3/21 房地产 沪深300 | 房 地 产 开 发 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 和运营 | | | 房地产服务 | 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250623）：杭 州推出住房公积金直付购房首付款 业务>>--2025/6/23 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250620）：上 海 2025 年 五 批 次 土 拍 收 官 >>-- 2025/6/20 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250619）：西 安出台楼市新政>>--2025/6/19 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号 ...

投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.24）：突破 策 略 研 究 太 平 2025 年 06 月 24 日 相关研究报告 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 动>>--2025-06-23 跌>>--2025-06-20 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.06.19 ） 调 整>>--2025-06-19 期：金融、周期领涨>>--2025-06-16 期：资金转流出>>--2025-06-16 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 大类资产跟踪 <<策略日报（2025.06.23）反者道之 <<策略日报（2025.06.20）缩量下 债券市场：利率债低开低走，股债跷跷板效应明显。今日上证指数 放量突破颈线压制，且呈均线排列结构，虽然基本面的疲弱仍将支撑债市， 但股市若继续走强仍将压制债市表现，预计债市后续将高位震荡运行。后 续展望：股市大盘突破，债市预计高位震荡。 研 究 报 告 <<估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 2 <<流动性与仓位周观察——6 月第 ...

投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——6 月第 3 期：资金延续净流出 资金净流出，交投活跃度下降。上周全 A 成交额 6.08 万亿，较前一 周下降，换手率 6.87%，较前一周下降，资金供给端中基金、ETF 净流入， 两融净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 12.64 亿元，再融资规模 4238.28 亿 元。市场资金合计净流出 3891.24 亿元，流动性转弱。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净投放资金 1021 亿元，DR007 下行， R007 上行，R007 与 DR007 利差扩大，金融机构间流动性未见明显分层。 利差来看，10 年期国债收益率下降 5bp，1 年期国债收益率下降 1bp，国 债期限利差扩大；10 年期美债收益率下行，10 年期国债收益率下行，中 美利差倒挂程度减轻；市场预期 7 月美联储不降息概率至 85.5%。 2025 年 06 月 23 日 市场微观交易结构：换手率下降，成交额同步下降。 机构投资者：上周偏股型基金发行规模 256.74 亿元，规模较上一周 上升。 偏股型公募基金：上周加仓行业前三：银行、电子、食品饮料；上周 减仓幅度前三行业：医药生物、有色金属、农林牧渔。 杠杆 ...

策 略 研 究 太 平 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 大类资产跟踪 2025 年 06 月 23 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.23）：反者道之动 相关研究报告 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 跌>>--2025-06-20 整>>--2025-06-19 <<估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 2 期：金融、周期领涨>>--2025-06-16 期：资金转流出>>--2025-06-16 <<策略日报（2025.06.20）缩量下 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.06.19 ） 调 债券市场：利率债整体震荡，盘中先跌后涨。今日股市冲高，债市 小幅震荡，考虑到部分股指波动率已创下近两年新低，在利好消息缺乏， 基本面疲弱下未来波动率的抬升更可能是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益 于避险资金的流入的判断。后续展望：股市波动率可能抬高，资金避险需 求或使得债券重拾涨势。 证 券 研 究 报 告 <<流动性与仓位周观察——6 月第 2 ...

证券分析师：张冬冬 2025 年 06 月 20 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.20）：缩量下跌 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.19）：调整>>- -2025-06-19 <<策略日报（2025.06.18）：小幅收 涨>>--2025-06-18 <<策略日报（2025.06.17）：窄幅震 荡>>--2025-06-18 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债全线上涨，长端涨幅大于短端。我们认为股市波动 率仍在低位，基本面的疲弱将限制上涨的高度，因此未来波动率的抬升更 可能是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益于避险资金的流入的判断。后续展 望：在地缘冲突加剧背景下，随着股市波动率可能抬高，资金避险需求或 使得债券重拾涨势。 A 股：市场缩量下跌，创业板指跌 0.84%。市场全天成交额 1.09 万 亿，较前一日缩量 0.19 万亿，个股呈普跌态势， 1465 只个股上涨，3455 只个股下跌。 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows short-term rates nearly flat while long-term rates have slightly increased. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in volatility. Future inflows into bonds may be driven by risk-averse capital due to escalating geopolitical conflicts [16][7]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 1.36%. The total trading volume was 1.28 trillion, a slight increase of 0.08 trillion from the previous day. Only 689 stocks rose while 4,402 fell. The report emphasizes that weak fundamentals and low volatility reduce the likelihood of a bullish market, suggesting investors consider reallocating to lower-risk sectors such as dividends and agriculture [18][21]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market remains in a state of fluctuation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate. The report notes that rising inflation pressures could lead to a downturn, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.1% and the S&P 500 by 0.03%. The report advises caution and suggests waiting for better buying opportunities as the market may be undergoing a second adjustment [23][9]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1913, an increase of 55 basis points from the previous close. The report indicates that the RMB is expected to strengthen further, potentially reaching around 7.1, driven by favorable trade conditions between China and the U.S. [26][10]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.67%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading gains, while precious metals and grains declined. The report suggests a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices, but optimistic investors may consider light positions in commodities as technical indicators show signs of stabilization [29][11]. Group 6: Important Policies and News - Domestic policies include an upgrade to the "production reduction order" in the photovoltaic sector, with a projected 10-15% decrease in operating rates. The Ministry of Commerce is expediting the review of rare earth export licenses, and the financial regulatory authority has issued guidelines to prevent excessive competition in dividend insurance [34][32]. Group 7: International News - Internationally, North Korea has launched over ten rocket artillery rounds, and Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds starting July. Additionally, U.S. officials are preparing for potential military actions against Iran, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions [33][36].

可控核聚变行业 证券研究报告 |行业深度研究报告 2025/6/18 可控核聚变展望： 进入关键导入期 刘强 S1190522080001 首席分析师： 分析师登记编号： 刘淞 S1190523030002 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 钟欣材 S1190524110004 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： P2 报告摘要 可控核聚变开启能源革命新征程。 作为人类终极能源解决方案，可控核聚变具备能源丰富、零排放、安全性高等显著优势，1g 氘氚聚变释放 能量相当于 11.2 吨标准煤，远超核裂变与化石燃料，是实现 "双碳" 目标的战略选择。 多技术路线并行突破，磁约束与惯性约束成主流。磁约束以托卡马克、仿星器为代表；惯性约束以美国 NIF 为代表，国内 "神光" 计划持续推进激光驱动技术。两类技术均进入工程验证阶段，磁约束聚焦稳态 运行，惯性约束发力点火效率，共同推动聚变能从实验室走向工程化。 产业链协同发展，材料与设备成攻关核心。上游超导材料、耐辐照钨合金突破技术壁垒；中游设备进入 ITER 及国内实验堆供应链；下游以中核集团、中国核电为代表，推进 "星火一号" 混合堆（Q>30）、 BEST 紧凑型装置等示 ...

2025 年 06 月 18 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.18）：小幅收涨 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.17）：窄幅震 荡>>--2025-06-18 <<策略日报（2025.06.16）：缩量反 弹>>--2025-06-16 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债窄幅震荡，短端几乎持平，长端小幅上涨。我们认 为股市波动率仍在低位，基本面的疲弱将限制上涨的高度，因此未来波动 率的抬升更可能是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益于避险资金的流入的判 断。后续展望：在地缘冲突加剧背景下，随着股市波动率可能抬高，资金 避险需求或使得债券重拾涨势。 A 股：市场今日盘中走低，三大指数收盘微涨。市场全天成交额 1.22 万亿，较前一日小幅缩量 0.02 万亿，个股涨少跌多，1727 只个股上涨， 3295 只个股下跌。我们一直提示在基本面乏力下，量能持续推升带来指 数牛的概率极低，过 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances [6][78]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the new round of "old-for-new" policies in China, alongside a recovery in export chains and relaxed tariff policies, leading to a sustained recovery in white goods demand [6][75]. - Hisense's central air conditioning segment continues to solidify its leading position in multi-split systems, while traditional large appliances are achieving deeper mid-to-high-end market penetration through differentiated competition strategies [6][75]. - The integration of Sanden, acquired in 2021, is anticipated to drive growth in the new energy thermal management business, contributing positively to the company's revenue performance [6][75]. Summary by Sections Basic Business - Hisense leads the domestic multi-split air conditioning market with a 23.1% share in 2024, maintaining its position for six consecutive years [4][24]. - The company has launched innovative products such as the first domestic 5G integrated central air conditioning series and a comprehensive solution for engineering applications [4][24]. - The overseas business is expanding through product development, channel expansion, and sports marketing, diversifying revenue sources and enhancing global presence [4][5]. Emerging Business - Following the acquisition of Sanden, Hisense has entered the new energy thermal management market, with investment returns from Sanden increasing from 0.88 billion to 2.23 billion CNY from 2021 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 36.14% [5][50]. - Sanden's strong technical foundation in compressors and its ability to maintain existing customer relationships while expanding new orders are expected to support future revenue growth [5][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits for Hisense of 36.54 billion, 37.46 billion, and 38.93 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.64, 2.70, and 2.81 CNY, indicating a PE ratio of 10.21, 9.96, and 9.59 times [6][78]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage the benefits of the "old-for-new" policy and the recovery of the export chain, which are expected to enhance white goods demand [6][75].

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/17 5月经济数据点评—— 消费增速超预期上行 | 单位： | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2024/12 | 2024/11 | 2024/10 | 2024/9 | 2024/8 | 2024/7 | 2024/6 | 2024/5 | % | 规模以上工业增加值 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ...