宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/16 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 5月金融数据点评—— 政府债仍为关键驱动 图表1：金融数据主要分项 | | | | | | 当月新增 | | | | | | 同比多增 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：亿元 | | | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2024/12 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2024/12 | | | 总 | 社融规模 | 22894 | 11591 | 58894 | 22375 | 70546 | 28507 | 2271 | 12249 | 10559 | 7416 | 5812 | 9181 | | | 表内融资 | 人民币贷款 | ...

2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——6 月第 2 期：资金转流出 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） 资金净流出，交投活跃度上升。上周全 A 成交额 6.86 万亿，较前一 周上升，换手率 7.85%，较前一周上升，融资供给端中基金、两融净流入， ETF 净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 26.53 亿元，再融资规模 22.07 亿 元。市场资金合计净流出 82.66 亿元，流动性转弱。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净回笼资金 727 亿元，DR007 下行， R007 上行，R007 与 DR007 利差扩大，金融机构间流动性未见明显分层。 利差来看，10 年期国债收益率下降 2bp，1 年期国债收益率持平，国债期 限利差缩小；10 年期美债收益率下行，10 年期国债收益率下行，中美利 差倒挂程度减轻；市场预期 6 月美联储不降息概率至 96.7%。 市场微观交易结构：换手率上升，成交额同步上升。 机构投资者：上周偏股型基金发行规模 12.82 亿元，规模较上一周下 降。 策 略 研 究 偏股型公募基金：上周加仓行业前三：医药生物、有色金属、非银金 融；上周减仓幅度前三行业：食品 ...

市场估值普跌，金融、周期居前。上周宽基指数估值普跌，金融表现 最优，科创 50 表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、农林 牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 小幅上升， 处于一倍标准差附近。 市场表现：金融、周期、创业板指表现最好；科创 50、消费、国证 2000 表现最弱。 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 2 期：金融、周期领涨 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/6/17 24/8/28 24/11/8 25/1/19 25/4/1 25/6/12 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 行业表现：有色金属、石油石化、农林牧渔涨幅前三，家用电器、食 品饮料、建筑材料表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 下降，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 下降。 全 A ERP ...

金融工程 证券研究报告 |深度研究报告 2025/06/13 AI投研应用系列之二： 从大模型到智能体，扣子Coze在金融投研中的应用 马自妍 S1190519070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 刘晓锋 S1190522090001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： P2 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1. AI Agent赋能投研应用 2. Coze核心功能解析 3. Coze投研应用实践 4. Coze投研应用相关插件 5. Coze在投研领域的应用前景展望 1、AI Agent赋能投研应用 1.1 AI Agent助力智能投研落地 2025年大语言模型（LLM）在技术层面迎来爆发式发展，但在实际应用落地中仍面临一定的局限：复 杂任务拆解能力不足、多工具协同效率低、专业场景适配成本高等问题，制约了其从技术能力向生产 力的转化。 AI Agent通过整合LLM的核心认知能力与外部工具、自动化工作流及领域知识库，助力大模型在智能 投研场景应用中高效落地。 字节跳动于2024年2月推出Coze扣子平台，2025年4月发布"扣子空间"协同办公系统，并于2025年5 月全面 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase across the board, indicating that the weak fundamentals will limit the height of any potential rise, and future volatility is likely to adjust downward, benefiting from inflows of risk-averse funds [17] - In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the demand for safe-haven assets may lead to a resurgence in bond prices as stock market volatility is expected to increase [17] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with a total trading volume of 1.5 trillion, an increase of 0.2 trillion from the previous day, with less than 800 stocks rising and over 4200 stocks declining, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite due to geopolitical tensions [20] - Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors such as low-yield dividends, agriculture, and technology, as the likelihood of a bullish market is low under current weak fundamentals [20][21] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market saw slight increases with the Dow Jones up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.24%, and S&P 500 up 0.38%, while concerns over rising bond yields and potential recession narratives may present better buying opportunities in the future [24] - The current market is likely in a phase of head consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term risks and wait for better buying points [24] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1814, a decrease of 13 basis points from the previous close, with expectations for the RMB to rise to around 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [28] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.93%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading the gains, while construction materials and non-ferrous metals lagged behind, suggesting a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices [32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, projecting significant revenue and profit growth in the coming years [88]. Core Insights - The company, 聚光科技, is positioned as a leading domestic high-end instrument manufacturer, with a strong foundation and a turning point in its operations [3][5]. - The global analytical instrument market is expected to grow from $60 billion in 2025 to $111.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.5%, indicating substantial growth potential for the industry [3][39]. - The company has successfully turned around its financial performance, achieving a revenue of 3.61 billion yuan in 2024, a 13.58% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 207 million yuan, marking a 164.11% increase [24][88]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - 聚光科技 was established in 2002 and focuses on high-end analytical instruments, maintaining a "4+X" multi-business layout across various sectors [3][12]. - The company has undergone strategic adjustments, including the divestment of PPP projects, to enhance operational efficiency and focus on core instrument business [9][85]. Market Environment - The global analytical instrument market is dominated by North America, Europe, and China, with significant growth expected in the Asian market due to increasing R&D expenditures [3][39]. - Domestic demand for high-end analytical instruments is rising, driven by the need for local alternatives to imported products, as the import rate for high-end instruments remains high [43][47]. Financial Analysis - The company has experienced historical revenue and profit fluctuations but has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on cash flow and contract quality since 2023 [24][85]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.61 billion yuan and a net profit of 207 million yuan, indicating a successful turnaround [24][88]. Growth Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.19 billion yuan in 2025, 4.80 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.41 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 320 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 556 million yuan [88].

2025 年 06 月 11 日 行业周报 看好/维持 医药 医药 板块持续跑赢大盘，关注后续创新药催化（附 CD73 靶点研究）(2025.06.03-2025.06.08) 走势比较 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/6/11 24/8/22 24/11/2 25/1/13 25/3/26 25/6/6 | 君实生物 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 华领医药-B | 买入 | | 奥锐特 | 买入 | | 同和药业 | 买入 | | 阳光诺和 | 买入 | | 泓博医药 | 买入 | | 福元医药 | 买入 | | 三生制药 | 买入 | | 京新药业 | 买入 | | 共同药业 | 增持 | | 亿帆医药 | 买入 | | 诺诚健华 | 买入 | | 诺思格 | 买入 | | 奥翔药业 | 买入 | | 科伦药业 | 买入 | | 国邦医药 | 买入 | | 来凯医药-B | 买入 | | 百利天恒 | 买入 | | 益方生物 | 买入 | | 皓元医药 | 买入 | | 普洛药业 | 买入 | | 信达生物 | 买入 | | 加科思-B | 买入 | 子行业评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic player in blood purification equipment with a comprehensive layout across the entire industry chain, indicating a promising future [4][8] - The blood purification equipment market in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%, driven by policy support and increasing demand for dialysis services [4][46] - The company has successfully expanded its business from blood purification equipment to a full range of dialysis services, enhancing its competitive edge [15][20] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company started with blood purification equipment and has gradually expanded into the entire dialysis industry chain, including self-manufactured consumables and medical services [15][16] - As of May 2025, the company has obtained multiple medical device registrations for its blood purification equipment, including dialysis machines and CRRT devices [16] 2. Market Potential - The market for blood purification equipment is expected to benefit from the recovery of procurement policies and equipment upgrades, with significant growth potential [4][36] - The penetration rate of ESRD patients receiving treatment in China is only 1/4 of that in Japan, indicating a large unmet demand [49] 3. Competitive Advantages - The company's blood purification devices offer a competitive price-performance ratio, with significant market share growth in both domestic and international markets [5][24] - The company has achieved a domestic market share of 16.8% in blood purification equipment, ranking first among domestic manufacturers [5][8] 4. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 709 million, 878 million, and 1.072 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 141 million, 186 million, and 240 million yuan [8][10] - The gross profit margin has shown an upward trend, supported by increased sales and operational efficiencies [27][29] 5. Future Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from a strong recovery in equipment procurement and a wave of equipment upgrades starting in 2024, which will drive market growth [52][53] - The increasing number of dialysis centers and the rising number of patients receiving dialysis treatment will further enhance market demand [41][45]

2025 年 06 月 10 日 行业日报 看好/维持 机械 机械 太平洋机械日报（20250610）：2025 年 5 月挖机总销量增长 2.12%、装载机总销量增长 7.24% 电话： E-MAIL：zhangfl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523100001 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 市场表现： ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/6/11 24/8/22 24/11/2 25/1/13 25/3/26 25/6/6 机械 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 相关研究报告 << 太平洋机械日报（20250609）： 2025 智源大会共论 AI 与具身智能发 展>>--2025-06-09 证券分析师：崔文娟 电话：021-58502206 E-MAIL：cuiwj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190520020001 证券分析师：刘国清 电话：021-61372597 E-MAIL：liugq@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190517040001 证券分析师：张凤琳 2025 年 6 月 10 日，沪深 300 下 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market has seen a slight increase across the board, with expectations that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit the extent of any upward movement. Future volatility is likely to increase, potentially leading to a downward adjustment, benefiting the bond market from inflows of risk-averse capital [14]. - In the A-share market, there was a significant drop in the afternoon session, with the ChiNext index falling over 1%. The total trading volume for the day was 1.45 trillion, an increase of 0.14 trillion from the previous day, with over 3,800 stocks declining. Given the weak fundamentals, the likelihood of a bullish market is low, and future market movements are expected to amplify volatility downward [16]. - In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices showed slowing growth, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the Nasdaq rising by 0.31%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.09%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields pose a risk to various assets, and a potential buying opportunity may arise following a recession narrative [20]. Group 2: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1886, an increase of 52 basis points from the previous day's close. The RMB appreciated significantly due to better-than-expected trade data between China and the U.S. The offshore RMB shows strong technical signs, with the previous high of 7.42 likely marking the peak of this round of depreciation [22]. Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.16%, with the pig, corn, and oil sectors leading the gains, while polyester, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors lagged. The overall technical structure of the Wenhua Commodity Index remains in a bearish trend, suggesting a cautious approach [26].