2026 年 02 月 23 日 公司点评 增持/维持 建发股份(600153) 目标价: 昨收盘:9.28 ■ 事件 2026 年 1 月，建发股份发布业绩预告。预计 2025 年度实现归母净 利润为-100 亿元至-52 亿元。2024 年全年归母净利润为 29.5 亿。 ■ 点评 经公司初步测算披露，2025 年度实现营业收入 6,736 亿元到 6,936 亿元之间。其中三个子板块，拆分情况如下： >>供应链板块，营收约 5200 亿元，利润盈利约+33 亿； 建发股份，2025 业绩预告点评，供应链盈利稳，地产亏损减值 ◼ 走势比较 总股本/流通(亿股) 29/29 总市值/流通(亿元) 269.08/269.08 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 11.71/8.68 证券分析师：程志峰 电话：010-88321701 E-MAIL：chengzf@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190513090001 >>房地产板块：营收约 1570 亿元，同比 2024 年下降约-15%，主要 系子公司建发房产和联发集团因交付项目减少导致结转收入减少利润减 少；利润约-65 亿至-53 亿元，主要系 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a positive market trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 0.87% and 1.23% respectively on February 24, 2026. The Shenwan Real Estate Index also increased by 0.28% [3]. - A recent land auction in Yiwu saw a small residential plot sold at a total price of 116 million yuan, with a premium rate of 22.14%. The plot covers an area of 4,120.58 square meters and has a planned construction area of 10,301.45 square meters [5]. - The top five performing stocks in the real estate sector included Phoenix Holdings, Jingneng Real Estate, Ningbo Fuda, Hefei Urban Construction, and Beijing Investment Development, with respective increases of 9.63%, 8.37%, 6.44%, 6.17%, and 5.96% [4]. Market Trends - The Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, along with six other departments, is conducting a two-month campaign to regulate real estate media, aiming to reduce false advertising and malicious speculation [6][7]. - Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Holdings has initiated a non-public offering of corporate bonds, with a scale of 2.5 billion yuan, which has been accepted for review [8].

债 债券周报 券 。 2026-2-24 [ [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，12 单商业不动产 REITs 已申报 公募 REITs 周报（2026.2.9-2026.2.15） 相关研究报告： [Table_ReportInfo] 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，华夏 中核清洁能源 REIT 上市》--2026- 2-9 《公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，首批 商业不动产 REITs 申报受理》-- 2026-2-2 《公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，部分 待上市项目状态更新至"中止"》 --2026-1-25 证券分析师： [Table_Author] 徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao @tpyzq.com E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 [Table 报告摘要_Summary] 一、二级市场：本周公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 本周公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，REITs 市场成交额减少 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [11] Core Insights - As of February 12, 2026, banks in Guangdong have provided credit for 1,929 "white list" projects amounting to 1.21 trillion yuan, with a disbursed amount of 911.9 billion yuan, leading the nation in project count, credit amount, and disbursed funds [5] - The real estate sector saw a mixed performance, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices rising by 0.05% and 0.51% respectively, while the Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 0.68% [3] - Notable individual stock performances included Hefei Urban Construction and Jingji Zhino, which rose by 10.03% and 3.50% respectively, while Shahe Co. and Jingtou Development saw declines of -5.14% and -3.88% [4] Market Trends - The report highlights the ongoing support from financial institutions in Guangdong, which is part of a broader strategy to mitigate risks in the real estate sector and implement the "white list" and "financial sixteen measures" policies [5] - The introduction of new residential projects in Zhuhai, with a total investment of 3.427 billion yuan, aims to set benchmarks for smart residential designs [6]

2026-02-12 金融工程 春节日历效应下的海内外市场表现研究 相关研究报告 报告摘要 以 2010 年至 2025 年共 16 个春节周期为样本，从海内外宽基指 数、行业板块、市场风格三个维度，考察春节前后不同窗口下的收益 表现、胜率分布及轮动规律。 A 股市场的春节日历效应呈现节前普涨、节后结构分化特征。节 前 5 个交易日主要指数多数上涨，万得全 A 中位数涨幅 2.59%、上涨 概率 68.75%。节后市场动能向中小市值倾斜，中证 1000、中证 2000、 微盘股在节后 20 个交易日涨幅中位数分别为 6.72%、8.35%、11.29%， 上涨比率均超 87%；上证 50、沪深 300 同期涨幅不足 2%，胜率回落至 60%左右，市值越小，节后弹性越强，胜率越高的分层规律较为稳定。 港股市场春节效应温和。恒生指数在节前、节假日（A 股休市、 港股交易）及节后 5 个交易日平均涨幅 0.12%、0.39%、0.55%，上涨 比率 56%-63%，弹性与确定性均弱于 A 股中小盘风格。 海外主要市场存在节后温和正收益倾向。标普 500、德国 DAX 等 指数节后 5 个交易日涨幅中位数 0.9%- ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2026/2/13 CPI环比弱于季节性，PPI同比降幅收窄 ——1月通胀数据点评 | 证券分析师： | 徐超 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190521050001 | | 证券分析师： | 戴梓涵 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524110003 | 报告摘要 事件：2月11日，国家统计局公布数据显示，2026年1月，全国居民消费价格(CPI) 同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%， 剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降1.4%，降幅较上月收窄0.5个百 分点，环比上涨0.4%。 一、CPI同比涨幅收窄，环比弱于季节性 1月份CPI同比上涨0.2%，涨幅较上月收窄0.6个百分点，0.2%的涨幅中，翘尾因素影响为0%，较上月下降0.2个百分 点，可见物价是导致CPI同比降幅收窄的主要原因，本月CPI表现低于市场预期，考虑到今年春节错月，去年同期基 数较高，扣除波动较大的食品能源价格的核心CPI同比增长0.8%，涨幅较上月收窄0.4个百分点，环比增长0.3%，涨 幅为最近六个月新高。1月CP ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shoulu Hotel (600258) with a target price based on the last closing price of 16.90 [1][10]. Core Insights - Shoulu Hotel is investing in new hotel constructions to expand its assets, focusing on mid-to-high-end hotel segments in key urban areas, which reflects a strategic move to optimize its development model and capitalize on industry recovery opportunities [4][6]. - The company is adopting a dual approach of "new construction and leasing" to balance long-term asset accumulation with short-term profit realization, which aligns with the trend of combining light and heavy asset models in the hotel industry [8][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Projects - Shoulu Hotel's subsidiary, Home Inn (China), plans to invest 280.51 million yuan in a new hotel in Suzhou, with an expected internal rate of return (IRR) of about 4% and a construction period of 14 months [3][4]. - The company also intends to lease a property in Beijing for 322.75 million yuan, with an expected IRR of approximately 12% and a construction period of 9-10 months [3][4]. Strategic Positioning - The projects are strategically located in high-potential areas, covering the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic zones, which are crucial for long-term performance growth [5][6]. - The Suzhou project is positioned in a provincial high-tech zone, benefiting from strong business and leisure demand, while the Beijing project is near major cultural and tourism attractions, enhancing its market presence [5][6]. Brand and Market Strategy - Both projects focus on mid-to-high-end brands, with a multi-brand strategy to cater to different customer segments, thereby avoiding internal brand competition and enhancing overall market competitiveness [7][8]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure and reduce reliance on low-end economy hotels, aligning with the trend of consumer upgrading in the hotel industry [7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a positive outlook, with expected net profits of 8.44 billion, 9.49 billion, and 10.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.65%, 12.51%, and 14.47% respectively [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.76, 0.85, and 0.97 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22X, 20X, and 17X [10][12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral, indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Eli Lilly's new drug, Migalastat, has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China for the treatment of moderate to severe active Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in adults. This drug selectively inhibits the IL-23 pathway, which is involved in immune inflammatory responses [5]. - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a slight decline of -0.32% on February 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [4]. - Notable stock performances included Teva Biopharmaceuticals (+6.01%), ZhenDe Medical (+5.87%), and Keyuan Pharmaceutical (+5.79%) on the gainers' list, while Huakang Clean (-5.28%), Hualan Biologicals (-5.11%), and Qianyuan Pharmaceutical (-4.67%) led the decliners [4]. Sub-industry Summary - Chemical Pharmaceuticals: No rating [3] - Traditional Chinese Medicine: No rating [3] - Biopharmaceuticals II: Neutral [3] - Other Pharmaceutical Industries: Neutral [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral, indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Roche's Fenebrutinib has successfully completed its Phase III clinical trial, demonstrating non-inferiority in reducing disability progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients compared to the approved therapy Ocrevus, with a 12% reduction in risk [5]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed a slight increase of 0.60% on February 9, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.49 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 sub-industries [4]. - Among sub-industries, medical research outsourcing (+1.94%), other biological products (+0.69%), and medical consumables (+0.59%) performed well, while vaccines (-0.70%), offline pharmacies (-0.49%), and pharmaceutical distribution (-0.41%) lagged [4]. Sub-industry Summary - Chemical pharmaceuticals: No rating [3] - Traditional Chinese medicine production: No rating [3] - Biopharmaceuticals II: Neutral [3] - Other pharmaceutical sectors: Neutral [3]

厦门国贸，点评，26 年初，披露五年战略规划，指引未来方向 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 25/2/10 25/4/24 25/7/6 25/9/17 25/11/29 26/2/10 厦门国贸 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 21.38/21.32 总市值/流通(亿元) 143.43/143.07 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 8.72/5.8 证券分析师：程志峰 电话：010-88321701 E-MAIL：chengzf@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190513090001 ■ 事件 2026 年 02 月 10 日 公司点评 增持/首次 厦门国贸(600755) 目标价: 昨收盘:6.71 2026 年 1 月，厦门国贸披露《五年发展战略规划纲要（2026-2030）》。 回顾 23-24 年，公司归母净利润分别为：19.15 亿，6.26 亿；25 年前三 季度为 5.77 亿，同比幅度减少-18.94%。 ■ 点评 公司诞生于 1980 年的厦门，起步于进出口贸易业务，逐渐延伸到大 宗商品领域。目前是以供应链管理为公司的核心支柱产业 ...