Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly outperforming the market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The current market is entering a performance verification period, with short-term technology stocks likely to experience differentiation and potential pullbacks. Investors are advised to strategically allocate to high dividend yield stocks [2][9]. - The market is currently facing pressure around the 3400-point level, with earnings reports expected to reveal performance disparities among companies. The upcoming earnings season will be critical for assessing the sustainability of high valuations in technology stocks [4][10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish logic for technology stocks remains intact, transitioning from speculative trading to performance realization [2][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Analysis - The A-share market showed mixed signals, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3358.73 points, down 0.39%. The total trading volume reached 16,067 billion [5][10]. - High dividend yield sectors such as coal, electricity, and public utilities performed well, while technology stocks, particularly AI and robotics, faced significant declines due to profit-taking [6][9]. Sector Performance - High dividend yield stocks are expected to maintain their value in a low-interest-rate environment, providing stable returns and resilience against market risks. However, caution is advised against overcrowding in these assets [6]. - Gold and jewelry stocks saw an uptick, driven by declining inflation rates and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may benefit traditional safe-haven assets [7]. Future Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience further differentiation among sectors, with technology stocks facing potential corrections due to high valuations lacking performance support. Investors are encouraged to reduce exposure to volatile tech stocks and consider increasing positions in cyclical and undervalued consumer sectors [2][9].

Core Views - The main trend in the market remains a slow bull market, with the need to resolve pressure around the 3400-point level, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [2][8][9] A-Share Market Analysis - On Wednesday, despite the decline in US markets, A-shares demonstrated resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, although it could not maintain the upward momentum and closed slightly lower, indicating a divergence between bulls and bears [4][8] - The market is currently facing pressure around the 3400-point level, which is a previous area of concentrated trading, and this needs to be addressed [2][8] - The upcoming earnings season, particularly from mid-March to April, will be critical for assessing corporate profitability, which could lead to performance differentiation among stocks [2][8] - The market has already priced in expectations for AI and tech stocks, but there is uncertainty regarding whether some stocks can meet these high valuations [2][8] Sector Performance - The computing power sector saw a collective surge, driven by news of an AI and cloud computing industry conference in Hangzhou, indicating a potential acceleration in the digital economy [6] - The cultural media sector experienced significant gains, particularly in gaming and media, with a noted 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, validating previous investment recommendations [7] - Despite a strong performance, the cultural media sector faced setbacks due to regulatory changes affecting gaming stocks, highlighting the volatility in this space [7] Market Sentiment - Overall, the market sentiment remains moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling, but the profitability effect is average, as indicated by a total trading volume of 16,838 billion [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with urban and rural areas both showing a decline of 0.7%[2] - Food prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%[2] - The CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in February, with food prices down 0.5% and service prices down 0.4%[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI dropped by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in February[2] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, while living materials saw a decline of 1.2%[2] - The prices in the electricity and heat production sector fell by 0.5% month-on-month, influenced by international oil price adjustments[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The negative CPI growth is attributed to seasonal factors and is expected to rebound with consumer promotion policies[2] - Industrial production is gradually recovering, and the PPI year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow[2] - The report highlights risks from global trade tensions and geopolitical instability affecting commodity prices and manufacturing costs[1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which fell by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since January 2024. This decline is attributed to various factors, including a high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% in February, with production material prices dropping by 2.5%. The report suggests that the PPI decline may continue to narrow as industrial demand recovers [2]. - The report anticipates that with the implementation of consumption promotion policies, the CPI is expected to rebound, despite the current negative growth [2]. Summary by Sections Macro Research - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices down by 3.3% and non-food prices down by 0.1%. The CPI also fell by 0.2% month-on-month [2]. - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, with significant drops in production material prices [2]. - The report notes that the industrial production is gradually recovering, and the PPI's year-on-year decline may continue to narrow [2]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into various price trends, including a notable decrease in fresh vegetable prices by 3.8% month-on-month due to warmer weather and a drop in pork prices by 1.9% [2]. - The report also mentions that prices in the new energy and artificial intelligence sectors are experiencing upward trends, with certain metal prices increasing [2].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating a positive fundamental outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [18]. Core Views - The A-share market demonstrates resilience, with a "slow bull" trend remaining the main theme despite external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and economic recession fears. The market's stability is supported by robust fiscal policies, including a projected budget deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][10]. - Investors are advised to adopt a "buy low, sell high" strategy in the short term, focusing on stocks with strong earnings support, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from policy boosts and domestic consumption trends [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market showed resilience amid global market volatility, with major indices closing in the green despite initial declines. Key sectors such as aerospace and agriculture performed well, indicating structural opportunities within the market [2][9]. - The overall market sentiment was moderate, with a total trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan across the exchanges, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,379.83 points, up 0.41% [6]. Sector Analysis - Aerospace and military stocks were notably active, with expectations of increased defense budgets and ongoing geopolitical tensions serving as potential catalysts for growth. However, high valuations may lead to volatility in individual stocks [7]. - Consumer sectors, particularly liquor and poultry, showed resilience against external uncertainties, with domestic consumption expected to drive economic recovery in 2025. The report highlights opportunities in the "silver economy" and affordable retail segments [7][8]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, supported by government policies aimed at fostering new industries. The report anticipates a trillion-yuan market for general aviation by 2030, with opportunities in low-altitude infrastructure and aircraft manufacturing [8].

2025 年 3 月 12 日 A 股市场凸显韧性，震荡慢牛仍是主基调，短期关注业绩支撑股 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 受特朗普政府关税政策升级、经济衰退预期升温，以及美联储降息预期的反 复等利空因素的影响，美股"黑色星期一"，周一道琼斯指数暴跌 2.08%，纳斯达 克指数重挫 4%，受此影响，全球资本市场遭遇波动。不过，虽然周二沪深三大指 数跳空低开，但 A 股逆势表现下体现出整体的稳定和韧性，三大指数尾盘均红盘 报收。盘面上看，航天航空、农林牧渔等板块逆势走强，内部结构性机会表现不 错。 因此，美股暴跌对 A 股的短期影响主要集中在情绪层面，实际影响有限。中 国经济处于新旧动能转换期，政策储备丰富。财政积极托底经济（今年赤字率拟 按 4%左右安排，比上年提高 1 个百分点。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元， 比上年增加 5000 亿元。合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元，比上年增加 2.9 万亿元。特别国债方面，拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元，比上年增加 3000 亿元），为市场稳定运行筑牢根基。市场震荡慢牛的主基调没变。 不过，鉴 ...

策 略 晨 报 2 月通胀数据疲软，A 股市场窄幅震荡，短期回踩不改中期向好格局 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，虽然近期指数表现较好，但仍有多方扰动。首先，外部美联 储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好；其次，技术面上， 沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期密集成交区间的重要阻力，能否突破这一区域将 成为市场的重要看点；最后，财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密 集披露期，企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 板块的估值已反映预 期，但部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性，需警惕回调风险。消费、医 药等现金流稳定的板块可能因防御属性受到青睐。 市场走势如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，两市成交额明显萎缩， 医药等防御性板块走强，人工智能概念股大面积调整。除了周一晨报提醒的因素 之外，市场出现分歧可能还有通胀数据疲软引发的经济预期压力。2 月通胀数据 低于预期，反映出内需修复仍存在不确定性。尽管政策面持续释放稳增长信号， 但通胀低迷可能压制企业盈利预期，数据公布后，人民币汇率承压，加剧了短期 市场波动。因此，虽然短期市场可能面临估值压力以及数据波动预期的 ...

【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，虽然近期指数表现较好，但仍有多方扰动。首先，外部美联 储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好；其次，技术面上， 沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期密集成交区间的重要阻力，能否突破这一区域将 成为市场的重要看点；最后，财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密 集披露期，企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 板块的估值已反映预 期，但部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性，需警惕回调风险。消费、医 药等现金流稳定的板块可能因防御属性受到青睐。 市场走势如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，两市成交额明显萎缩， 医药等防御性板块走强，人工智能概念股大面积调整。除了周一晨报提醒的因素 之外，市场出现分歧可能还有通胀数据疲软引发的经济预期压力。2 月通胀数据 低于预期，反映出内需修复仍存在不确定性。尽管政策面持续释放稳增长信号， 但通胀低迷可能压制企业盈利预期，数据公布后，人民币汇率承压，加剧了短期 市场波动。因此，虽然短期市场可能面临估值压力以及数据波动预期的变化，但 在多方支撑和提振下，市场中期向好的逻辑和趋势未变，即便市场出现阶段的震 荡调整或仍是整体上 ...

英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 周 报 2025 年 3 月 10 日 政策利好逐步落地及经济修复下,短期如有震荡回撤也是上行中的洗盘 分析师:惠祥凤 执业证书编号: S0990513100001 电话: 0755-83007028 邮箱: huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点: 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五沪深三大指数震荡,盘面上看,有色、工程机械等传统板块表现良好 下,科技股高位震荡回落,拖累指数整体下跌。本周重要会议闭幕,市场对政策 和财报关注度提升,短期或迎来关键时刻。多方支撑和提振下,市场仍有向好的 基础和提振的动力,如震荡中回撤,可考虑低吸和适当加仓。 回顾近期市场,指数表现较好,主要还是政策预期的不断强化。一方面,两 会政策利好兑现。两会报告明确 5%的经济增长目标,财政赤字率上调至 4%,货 币政策保持适度宽松,专项债规模扩大至 4.4 万亿元;另一方面,产业政策聚焦 新质生产力,科技板块持续获得资金追捧,成为市场主线。 尽管如此,短期仍有扰动。首先,外部美联储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税 博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好;其次,技术面上,沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期 密集成 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to experience upward momentum supported by policy implementation and economic recovery, despite potential short-term fluctuations [2][19][21] - Recent market performance has been driven by strengthened policy expectations, with the government setting a GDP growth target of 5% and increasing the fiscal deficit ratio to 4% [2][7][19] - The technology sector continues to attract significant investment, becoming a market focus, while traditional sectors like materials and engineering machinery also show strong performance [2][19][21] Group 2 - The aerospace and defense sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic advancements in aircraft manufacturing [10][11] - The report notes a significant increase in the lithium resource reserves in Sichuan, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [11] - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see increased demand due to policies promoting equipment upgrades and environmental considerations [12] Group 3 - The 6G concept stocks are gaining traction, supported by government initiatives to foster emerging industries and technological advancements [13] - The robotics industry is identified as a long-term investment opportunity, with expected growth driven by policy support and increasing demand for automation [14] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant investments anticipated in AI applications and related hardware, indicating a shift towards more fundamental investment strategies [15][16] Group 4 - The renewable energy sector, including battery and solar industries, is expected to rebound as demand continues to grow in line with national carbon neutrality goals [17] - The healthcare sector is also showing signs of recovery, with potential for growth driven by demographic trends and previous market corrections [18]