英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 周 报 2025 年 3 月 10 日 政策利好逐步落地及经济修复下,短期如有震荡回撤也是上行中的洗盘 分析师:惠祥凤 执业证书编号: S0990513100001 电话: 0755-83007028 邮箱: huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点: 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五沪深三大指数震荡,盘面上看,有色、工程机械等传统板块表现良好 下,科技股高位震荡回落,拖累指数整体下跌。本周重要会议闭幕,市场对政策 和财报关注度提升,短期或迎来关键时刻。多方支撑和提振下,市场仍有向好的 基础和提振的动力,如震荡中回撤,可考虑低吸和适当加仓。 回顾近期市场,指数表现较好,主要还是政策预期的不断强化。一方面,两 会政策利好兑现。两会报告明确 5%的经济增长目标,财政赤字率上调至 4%,货 币政策保持适度宽松,专项债规模扩大至 4.4 万亿元;另一方面,产业政策聚焦 新质生产力,科技板块持续获得资金追捧,成为市场主线。 尽管如此,短期仍有扰动。首先,外部美联储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税 博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好;其次,技术面上,沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期 密集成 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to experience upward momentum supported by policy implementation and economic recovery, despite potential short-term fluctuations [2][19][21] - Recent market performance has been driven by strengthened policy expectations, with the government setting a GDP growth target of 5% and increasing the fiscal deficit ratio to 4% [2][7][19] - The technology sector continues to attract significant investment, becoming a market focus, while traditional sectors like materials and engineering machinery also show strong performance [2][19][21] Group 2 - The aerospace and defense sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic advancements in aircraft manufacturing [10][11] - The report notes a significant increase in the lithium resource reserves in Sichuan, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [11] - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see increased demand due to policies promoting equipment upgrades and environmental considerations [12] Group 3 - The 6G concept stocks are gaining traction, supported by government initiatives to foster emerging industries and technological advancements [13] - The robotics industry is identified as a long-term investment opportunity, with expected growth driven by policy support and increasing demand for automation [14] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant investments anticipated in AI applications and related hardware, indicating a shift towards more fundamental investment strategies [15][16] Group 4 - The renewable energy sector, including battery and solar industries, is expected to rebound as demand continues to grow in line with national carbon neutrality goals [17] - The healthcare sector is also showing signs of recovery, with potential for growth driven by demographic trends and previous market corrections [18]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [21]. Core Viewpoints - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing "technological self-reliance" and "expanding domestic demand" as dual drivers [3][12]. - Fiscal targets include a budget deficit rate of around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan [3][12]. - The report highlights significant investments in new industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and future industries like biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G [3][12]. - The market is expected to see a broad recovery with technology stocks leading the way, supported by government policies and increased funding for infrastructure and equipment updates [4][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On a recent Thursday, the market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 2% and the CSI 50 index rising by 3.48% [4][7]. - The AI sector, including AI smart bodies and related stocks, experienced significant gains, driven by government support for technological innovation [4][8]. Sector Performance - The AI theme stocks surged, with notable increases in AI-related companies following the government's push for new productivity [8][9]. - The cultural media sector also saw substantial growth, particularly in gaming and interactive media, with a reported increase of 42.75% in the first half of 2023 [9][11]. Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates a shift in market performance towards a broader participation across sectors, with specific focus on three main investment lines: self-controlled sectors (robotics, semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, affordable consumer goods), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises) [4][13].

Core Views - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing "technological self-reliance" and "expanding domestic demand" as dual drivers of the economy [3][12] - Fiscal targets include a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan [3][12] - The report outlines plans for 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, with a focus on promoting new industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and future industries like biomanufacturing and quantum technology [3][12] Market Overview - On a recent Thursday, the A-share market saw significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.48%, driven by strong performances in technology stocks, particularly in AI, computing power, and semiconductors [4][13] - The market's positive sentiment is attributed to government policies that clear doubts about the long-term development of the technology sector, providing clear investment directions [4][13] - The overall market showed signs of recovery, with increased trading volumes and a broad-based rally across various sectors, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [7][13] Sector Analysis - The AI sector experienced substantial growth, with stocks related to AI technologies and applications seeing significant price increases, driven by advancements in AI models and government support for new productivity [8][12] - The cultural media sector also performed well, particularly in gaming and interactive media, with a noted increase in market activity following a prolonged period of low valuations [9][11] - The report highlights the potential for AI to lead a new wave of technological revolution, with investment opportunities expanding into AI applications as the industry matures [8][12] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on three main lines: self-controlled sectors (robotics, semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, affordable consumer goods), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises) [4][13] - The report suggests that as policy details from the recent meetings are implemented, the A-share market's technology stock rally may broaden to include more sectors, indicating a potential for widespread market participation [4][13]

2025 年 3 月 6 日 英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 重要会议释放积极信号,但短期多方扰动因素仍在 观点: 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三沪深三大指数集体飘红。正在召开的全国两会释放积极信号。政府工作 报告明确 2025 年 GDP 增长目标为 5%左右,强调"科技自立自强"与"扩大内需"双 轮驱动。财政目标方面,今年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排,比上年提高 1个百分点。 政府投资方面,拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元,比上年增加 5000亿元。 合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元,比上年增加 2.9 万亿元。特别国债方面, 拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元,比上年增加 3000亿元。拟发行特别国债 5000 亿元。促进消费方面,安排超长期特别国债 3000 亿元支持消费品以旧换新。住 房目标方面,持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳。继续做好保交房工作,有效防 范房企债务违约风险。新质生产力方面,推动商业航天、低空经济等新兴产业安 全健康发展。培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G 等未来产业。加快制造业 数字化转型。大力发展智能网联新能源汽车、人工智能手机和电脑、智能机器 ...

执业证书编号: S0990513100001 电话: 0755-83007028 邮箱: huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点 : 英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 5 日 多重因素影响下,市场或仍有震荡,关注"两会"政策动向 分析师:惠祥凤 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二沪深三大指数涨跌不一,军工及半导体板块大涨,科技股出现反弹,并 一度带领指数上行。不过,从成交量上看,A 股两市成交额再度萎缩,市场反弹 动力略有不足。近期 A 股成交额持续回落,从 2 月 21 日的 2 万多亿降至不足 1.5 万亿,市场活跃度显著降温,市场容易陷入存量博弈;从板块方面看,AI、 机器人行业(连在一起读)等前期主线退潮后,固态电池、军工等热点快速轮动 但缺乏持续性,显示资金追高意愿不足;从外部环境看,贸易摩擦升级与美股波 动加剧市场不确定性。 因此,短期来看,A 股迎来两会周期下,随着热点的分化以及成交的萎缩, 整体或进入震荡阶段。操作上,建议规避高估值科技股回调风险。不过,中期看, 政策支持与经济复苏预期仍为市场提供支撑,市场阶段的调整或仍是整体上行中 的洗盘。可逢低 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market may experience a phase of adjustment and volatility in the short term, particularly as the National People's Congress (NPC) convenes to set economic targets and make decisions on special government bond issuance and deficit adjustments [1][4][8] - The technology sector is expected to continue its fluctuations, while sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical care, and new energy, which have seen significant adjustments in recent years, may present opportunities for investment [1][4][6] Sector Analysis - The report highlights that the new energy sector, including battery and solid-state battery industries, has shown strong performance, suggesting that the sector is poised for a technical rebound due to ongoing demand driven by carbon neutrality goals and the rapid development of the electric vehicle industry [6][7] - The pharmaceutical and medical sectors have also seen collective gains, with the report noting that the pharmaceutical sector has experienced significant declines over the past four years, making it attractive for investment as it is currently trading at a relatively low price-to-earnings ratio of around 31 times [7][8] - The report mentions a surge in stocks related to controlled nuclear fusion, driven by positive news regarding investments in fusion energy companies, although the sustainability of this rally is yet to be determined [7][8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully and adjust their portfolios flexibly based on sector performance and policy developments, particularly after the NPC concludes [2][4][9] - The report suggests that for technology stocks that have seen significant gains and are overvalued, it may be prudent to consider partial profit-taking, while remaining optimistic about the long-term trajectory of the technology sector [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electricity energy industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1][53]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months due to favorable fundamentals [1][53]. - Recent performance shows that the electricity equipment index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.40 percentage points, with a decline of 0.83% compared to a 2.22% drop in the CSI 300 [5][11]. Market Performance - During the period from February 24 to February 28, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the electricity equipment index decreased by 0.83%, ranking 15th among 31 first-level industries [5][12]. - The top-performing sub-sectors within the electricity energy category included batteries and photovoltaic materials, with increases of 8.32%, 4.93%, and 2.83% respectively [15]. Electricity Industry Operations - In December 2024, the total electricity consumption reached 883.5 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.27%. The cumulative electricity consumption for the entire year was 9,852.1 billion kWh, reflecting a 6.81% increase [17][18]. - The newly added power generation capacity for the year 2024 was 43,323 MW, which is a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [20]. New Power System Situation Photovoltaics - As of February 26, 2025, the prices of upstream raw materials for photovoltaics are at a low point, with signs of a turning point for components and photovoltaic glass [30]. Energy Storage - By the end of 2024, China's operational energy storage projects had a cumulative installed capacity of 137.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% [36]. Lithium Batteries - As of February 28, 2025, the price of lithium carbonate was 74,700 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease [39]. Charging Infrastructure - By the end of January 2025, the total number of charging facilities in the country reached 13.21 million, a year-on-year increase of 49.12% [43].

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 周 报 2025 年 3 月 3 日 关注"两会"政策动向，科技股短期或延续震荡，逢低配置防御性板块 分析师：惠祥凤 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五晨报提醒，市场初现热点转换迹象，短期市场或将迎来阶段性震荡回 踩，逢低配置防御性板块。市场走势如我们预期，上周五沪深三大指数集体调整， 盘面上看，科技股大面积下跌，酿酒等防御性板块逆势走强。 从技术面看，沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期密集成交区间的重要阻力，能 否突破这一区域将成为市场的重要看点；从盘面上看，近期科技股的热点扩散分 化，且 A 股部分科技成长类标的缺乏基本面支撑，连续大涨后出现震荡回落；国 外方面看，海内外干扰因素依然存在，特朗普贸易政策充满不确定性；从政策面 上看，预计 2025 年将会是财政大年，加强超常规逆周期调节力度，因此，"两会" 政策动向备受期待。3 月全国"两会"确定的全年经济目标，特别国债增发和赤字 调整的决策则也要等两会做出，这些对市场而言值得关注。两会后，根据政策的 力度再灵活应变。 短期市场或将迎来阶段性震荡回踩，不过，如果出现回踩也应视为洗盘行为。 洗盘过程将有助于市场充分消化前期获利 ...

英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 2 月 27 日 回踩后沪深三大指数再度上涨、后市大盘上方面临前期密集成交区间 观点 : 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三晨报提醒，虽然周二沪深三大指数集体收跌，但我们认为，此处出现的 回踩应视为洗盘行为。短期震荡或回踩不改中期慢牛格局。市场走势如我们预期, 周三沪深三大指数集体上涨。盘面上,人行机器人概念股早盘强势,不过,午后 涨幅收窄。另外，尾盘券商板块拉升。 从技术面看,沪深三大指数在持续上涨后,上方可能面临前期密集成交区间 的重要阻力,能否突破这一区域将成为市场的重要看点。从政策面上看,两会之 前,处于对政策的憧憬,市场大概率"慢牛"震荡向上。两会后,根据政策的力 度再灵活应变。3 月全国"两会"确定的全年经济目标,特别国债增发和赤字调整 的决策则也要等两会做出,这些对市场而言值得关注。 综上所述,操作上,建议投资者合理控制仓位,及时灵活调整投资组合,对 不同的行业个股采取不同的策略。首先,对于手中涨幅较大、估值过高的股票, 可适时适当减持,锁定部分利润;其次,对于高股息个股仍有逢低配置的价值, 以分红规模和持续性相对占优的央国企为主;最后 ...