国产创新催动 AI 平权，下游应用有望百花齐放 投资要点 证券研究报告/行业研究 中国创业公司Monica于2025年3月6日发布全球第一款通用型AI Agent— —Manus，其在GAIA 的基准测试中取得了新的SOTA表现, 超越OpenAI同 级产品。Manus采用Multiple Agent架构, 可将复杂任务拆分为规划、执行、 验证等子模块，运行在独立的虚拟机中。目前，Manus已提供多种处理现实 世界任务的案例，包括个性化旅行规划、深度股票分析、保险政策比较、供应 商采购、财务报告分析、专业数据整理、教育内容创建等。该产品体现国内 Al Agent 产品强大的通用性和复杂任务执行能力。此外，官方计划在今年开 源Manus的推理部分，国内厂商有望内化Manus的通用任务执行能力，从而 进一步推动AI应用的落地。 ——人工智能行业专题研究 ➢ 全球首款通用性AI Agent——Manus ➢ 风险提示 AI 技术发展不及预期；AI应用渗透不及预期；竞争格局恶化。 执业登记编号：A0190523020001 wuqidi@yd.com.cn ➢ DeepSeek算法创新催动AI平权 DeepSeek ...

多重因素叠加或将长期推升黄金资产价格 ——黄金行业动态追踪 投资要点 ➢ 多因素推动历史金价上涨 2022 年至 2023 年，全球央行净购金数量超过 1000 吨，购金速度达到 1967 年以来最高值。此外，俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等全球地缘政治风险持续，也一 定程度上推高了黄金和原油等大宗商品所隐含的地缘政治风险溢价。2024 年叠加美联储降息预期持续等因素推动黄金价格不断创新高，年内金价涨幅 超 20%。 ➢ 美国关税政策或引发再通胀 近期，美国新任政府对"美国优先"主义的践行，提高关税等一系列措施带 来全球避险需求提升的同时，或引发再通胀从而效压低实际利率，进一步推 升黄金资产价格。亚特兰大联储的最新预测显示，美国一季度 GDP 可能萎 缩 2.8%，而高盛也将增长预期大幅下调至 0.6%。 ➢ 黄金2024年需求侧数据创新高 证券研究报告/行业研究 从需求端来看，2024 年全年黄金需求量为 4974 吨，创下历史新高。其中， 各国央行全年净购买总量达到 1045 吨，且已将连续购买黄金的时间延长至 15 年。值得注意的是，2024 年是需求量连续第三年超过 1000 吨，远远超 过 2010-2021 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the biopharmaceutical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The aging population in China is expected to reach 310 million by 2024, accounting for 22.0% of the total population, leading to increased prevalence of chronic and degenerative diseases, thus creating significant market opportunities for the medical industry [1][7] - The number of drug pipelines in China has increased from 701 in 2014 to 6,119 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 24%, indicating a structural upgrade in the biopharmaceutical industry and a shift towards innovation as a new driving force [2][11] - The biopharmaceutical sector has undergone deep adjustments, and there are expectations for valuation recovery due to improved competition and supportive policies for innovative drug development [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Aging Population and Policy Support - The deepening trend of population aging in China is expected to significantly increase the incidence of chronic diseases, providing greater market opportunities for the medical industry [1][7] - Favorable policies related to healthcare and pensions are being introduced, which will stimulate medical consumption and create a larger market space for innovative drugs [10] 2. Structural Upgrade in Biopharmaceutical Industry - The continuous increase in drug pipelines reflects the growing R&D investment by Chinese pharmaceutical companies, with the global share of these pipelines rising from 6% in 2014 to 27% in 2024 [2][11] 3. Valuation Recovery Opportunities - The government plans to optimize drug procurement policies, which is expected to improve the competitive environment and enhance the profitability of leading biopharmaceutical companies [3][12] - The integration of AI in biopharmaceutical R&D is anticipated to further benefit the sector, alongside a recovering capital market that supports financing for innovative drug development [3][12] 4. Key Investment Targets - **Hengrui Medicine**: Focuses on innovative drug development in oncology, surgery, endocrine therapy, cardiovascular drugs, and anti-infection drugs, expected to benefit from the upward trend in the innovative drug sector [16] - **WuXi AppTec**: A leading global platform for pharmaceutical and medical device R&D, providing comprehensive services from drug discovery to commercialization [17] - **Enhua Pharmaceutical**: Specializes in central nervous system drugs, with a focus on anesthetics, psychiatric, and neurological drugs, benefiting from the expanding innovative drug market [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft have significant performance advantages, including vertical takeoff and landing capabilities, distributed electric propulsion, and the use of all-electric or hybrid power technologies. Compared to conventional helicopters, eVTOLs are more environmentally friendly, quieter, and have higher automation levels, resulting in lower operating costs and higher safety and reliability [1][10] - The central government's strategic focus on low-altitude economy, including the establishment of a dedicated low-altitude economic department, is expected to accelerate the certification and commercialization of eVTOLs. Recent developments include the issuance of the world's first type certificate, airworthiness certificate, and production certificate to EHang Intelligent, marking a significant milestone in the eVTOL industry [2][35] - The eVTOL market is projected to reach a scale of 107.91 billion yuan by 2030, with various application scenarios such as tourism, urban air mobility, emergency rescue, and firefighting contributing to this growth [3][47] Summary by Sections Section 1: eVTOL Development and Commercialization - eVTOLs are positioned as core vehicles for low-altitude development, with a strong potential for commercialization driven by technological advancements and supportive policies [8][32] - The eVTOL industry is characterized by diverse aircraft types and configurations, with composite wings and tilt-rotor designs being the main development lines [22][25] - The core subsystems of eVTOLs include airframe, avionics, flight control, energy, propulsion, and electrical systems, with battery and propulsion systems accounting for approximately 50% of the total cost [28][29] Section 2: Market Opportunities and Applications - eVTOLs can be categorized into surveillance, cargo, and passenger aircraft, each with distinct requirements for development, manufacturing, and certification [40] - The market space for eVTOLs is vast, with significant potential in passenger transport (urban air mobility, regional air transport) and cargo delivery, although the latter is expected to be limited primarily to industrial-grade drones [46][47] - The projected market size for eVTOLs by 2030 includes segments such as tourism (7.2 billion yuan), urban air mobility (70.4 billion yuan), emergency rescue (9.56 billion yuan), and firefighting (20.75 billion yuan) [47][48] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. WanFeng Aviation: A global leader in general aviation aircraft, with promising eVTOL developments 2. Wolong Electric: A domestic leader in electric motors, actively advancing eVTOL product development 3. Inboard: Focused on new energy vehicle power systems, starting with collaboration with EHang Intelligent 4. Zongshen Power: A leading private enterprise in small to medium-sized aviation power systems 5. CATL: A global leader in battery manufacturing, with solid-state batteries expected to set benchmarks for aviation-grade products [51]

Investment Rating - The report rates the copper industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The proposed 25% tariff on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase corporate inventory demand, leading to a short-term boost in copper prices. As of March 27, 2025, LME 3-month copper futures were priced at $9,846 per ton, with the spot price at $9,787 per ton, indicating a narrowing gap between futures and spot prices [1][8] - There is a persistent tight supply of refined copper globally, with a notable deficit in 2023. Although some improvement is expected by February 2024, the market is anticipated to return to a state of supply shortage by September 2024, which will support higher copper prices [2][10] - The rise of AI and advancements in computing power are driving increased demand for copper, particularly in data centers and 5G infrastructure. The global demand for copper used in PCBs reached 580,000 tons in 2023, with projections indicating that this could exceed one million tons by 2025 [3][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Demand - The U.S. is considering a 25% tariff on copper, which has led to increased inventory accumulation by companies due to concerns over future price hikes. This is expected to support short-term demand for copper [1][8] Section 2: Supply Constraints - Global refined copper supply has been tight, with a deficit observed in most months of 2023. The situation is expected to improve slightly in early 2024, but a return to supply shortages is anticipated later in the year [2][10] Section 3: Demand Expansion through AI - The development of generative AI and enhanced computing capabilities is creating new opportunities in the computing sector, leading to increased demand for various copper products. The demand for copper in PCBs is projected to grow significantly, driven by investments in computing infrastructure [3][13] Section 4: Key Investment Targets - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a key player due to its substantial mineral reserves and advanced technology in copper and gold mining. The company operates extensively in China and internationally [16] - Jiangxi Copper is noted as the largest copper producer in China, benefiting from its integrated operations across the entire copper supply chain, which positions it well to capitalize on rising copper prices [17]

Investment Strategy Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a stable recovery in the profitability of industrial enterprises, supported by recent macroeconomic policies and adjustments in monetary policy, particularly the shift to a multi-price bidding method for MLF operations [2][3][4]. News and Commentary - The People's Bank of China announced a new MLF operation method to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a planned operation of 450 billion yuan for a one-year term [2][12]. - The Ministry of Finance's report emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, including increased fiscal deficit rates and larger government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [2][13]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 910.99 billion yuan in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year [3][17]. Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight increase of 0.2%. The pharmaceutical and biological sector led the gains with a 1.0% increase [4][25][28]. - The adjustment of MLF operations signals a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, benefiting the bond market and potentially improving the performance of cyclical stocks [4][34]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities driven by policy and industrial trends, particularly in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, aerospace, and deep-sea technology [5][34]. - Consider sectors benefiting from increased domestic demand, including food and beverage, home appliances, and automotive industries [5][34]. - Pay attention to industries that may benefit from large-scale debt issuance, particularly companies with government contracts and the infrastructure supply chain [5][34]. - Monitor investment opportunities related to state-owned enterprise market value management [5][34]. - Long-term investment in gold is recommended due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5][34].

Group 1: A-share Buyback Policy - The A-share buyback policy has evolved through three stages: "comprehensive prohibition," "limited relaxation," and "flexible incentives" since 1993. The buyback scale has significantly increased since 2018, with a historical high of 165.63 billion yuan in 2024 [1][19][20]. Group 2: Current Status of A-share Buybacks - The number of actively repurchasing companies in 2024 reached 1,216, surpassing the number of passively repurchasing companies. The active buybacks have increased from 387 companies in 2021 to 616 in 2023 [2][24][27]. Group 3: Impact of Buybacks on Company Valuation - Historical buyback waves have occurred at market bottoms, providing a stabilizing effect on market value. An analysis of 10,633 buyback events from 2018 to March 2025 shows positive absolute and relative returns post-announcement, with average returns of 1.84% and 1.17% after 30 days, and 3.74% and 1.94% after 90 days [3][31][34]. - Long-term returns are significant, with average absolute returns of 12.85% and 21.70% after one and two years post-completion, respectively [3][37]. - Active buybacks yield higher excess returns compared to passive buybacks, with an average excess return of 4.36% for other purposes, 2.82% for equity incentives, and 3.01% for market value management after 90 days [3][42]. - The buyback ratio is positively correlated with excess returns, with companies repurchasing more than 5% of their shares achieving an average excess return of 19.27% from the announcement to completion [3][42][47]. Group 4: Buyback Purposes and Methods - The buyback purposes have diversified, with significant increases in market value management and profit compensation since 2018. The buyback methods include centralized bidding, block trading, tender offers, and agreement transfers, each with distinct operational processes and market impacts [19][21][22][24][47]. - The buyback process involves five stages: internal decision-making, regulatory reporting, implementation, information disclosure, and share handling [17][18]. Group 5: Valuation Perspectives - The buyback announcement can reflect both "stronger strength" and "valuation recovery" logic, with lower valuation companies showing higher excess returns post-announcement compared to higher valuation companies [47].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the tourism industry [3]. Core Insights - The central and local governments are actively promoting tourism consumption, with Guangdong Province aiming for total tourism revenue to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan by 2027 [1][6]. - There is a significant increase in travel bookings for the Qingming Festival, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 1.75 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [2][7]. - Travelers are increasingly favoring diverse travel experiences, with searches for traditional cultural activities related to Qingming rising by 75% year-on-year [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Promotion of Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The central government has issued a plan to boost consumption, supporting projects in education, healthcare, and cultural tourism [6]. - Guangdong Province has introduced measures to enhance tourism infrastructure and promote local tourism brands, targeting 9.5 billion visitors and 1.3 trillion yuan in tourism revenue by 2027 [1][6]. 2. Positive Trends in Travel Bookings - As spring arrives, there is a notable increase in travel intentions, particularly for the Qingming Festival, with short-distance travel being predominant [2][7]. - Popular destinations in the Yangtze River Delta include cities like Shanghai and Nanjing, with a 6% year-on-year increase in high-star hotel bookings in non-first-tier cities [2][7]. 3. Key Investment Targets in the Tourism Sector - **China Duty Free Group**: Dominates the duty-free market with over 1,400 brand partnerships [8]. - **Air China**: The only flag carrier in China, with a strong network centered around major hubs [9][10]. - **China Southern Airlines**: Extensive route coverage with over 2,000 daily flights [11]. - **Jin Jiang Hotels**: Operates a diverse range of hotels and has expanded internationally [12]. - **Songcheng Performance**: A leading player in the performance industry, known for its unique cultural offerings [13].

Group 1 - The A-share repurchase policy has evolved from a "market rescue tool" to "market regulation" and now to "value guidance," with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) encouraging companies to enhance investment value through repurchases and increases in shareholding [1][9][10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases has increased from 363 in 2020 to 585 in 2024, with annual repurchase amounts maintaining around 100 billion yuan, predominantly among small-cap companies in growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, chemicals, electronics, and power equipment [1][15][19] Group 2 - The average excess return for companies announcing their first repurchase is 3.4% over 90 days, indicating a positive impact on market value, although individual results vary significantly [1][19][20] - Companies with executives (directors, supervisors, and senior management) making repurchase announcements see an average excess return of 3.8% over 90 days, which is higher than that of non-executive shareholders [2][20] - Small-cap companies with a market value below 5 billion yuan experience an average excess return of 7.0% following repurchase announcements, suggesting a stronger market response to such actions [2][24] Group 3 - Practical recommendations for companies include choosing the right timing for repurchases when stocks are undervalued, ensuring the scale of repurchases aligns with available funds, and coordinating repurchase tools with other strategies [3][26] - Companies should manage the announcement rhythm to align with market expectations and track the effects of repurchase announcements on excess returns and trading volume [3][27] - A case study of Sichuan Road and Bridge demonstrates effective use of repurchases to manage market value, with significant stock price increases following their announcements [3][28][30]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest institutional research in the past 30 days include Weisheng Information, Anpeilong, Jiangbolong, and Zhaomin Technology [11] - In the last five days, the most researched companies include Zoli Pharmaceutical, Oke Yi, Guangdong Expressway A, Chaojie Co., and Haitai Technology [11] - Among these companies, nine have received coverage from ten or more rating agencies, including Weisheng Information, Guangdong Expressway A, Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Huarui Precision [11] - Ningbo Bank reported a 6% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 compared to 2023 [11] Group 2: Major Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From March 10 to March 16, 2025, eight companies announced significant shareholder increases, including Luzhou Laojiao, Funiu Co., Wangneng Environment, and others [14] - Among these companies, Luzhou Laojiao and Funiu Co. have received coverage from more than ten rating agencies [14] Group 3: A-Share Buyback Situation - From March 10 to March 16, 2025, a total of 128 companies announced buyback progress, with 31 companies filtered based on having coverage from ten or more rating agencies [17] - Ten companies are expected to have a buyback amount that exceeds 1% of their market value on the announcement date, including Zhengmei Machine, Shengquan Group, and Jingwei Hengrun-W [17] Group 4: Year-to-Date Shareholder Increases - From January 1 to March 16, 2025, 73 companies announced significant shareholder increases, with 14 having coverage from more than ten rating agencies [15] - Companies with a proposed increase amount that exceeds 1% of their market value include Xinjie Energy, Wanrun Co., Xingfa Group, and Lege Co. [15] Group 5: Year-to-Date Buyback Situation - From January 1 to March 16, 2025, a total of 946 companies announced buyback progress, with 173 having coverage from more than ten rating agencies [19] - Among these, 53 companies are expected to have a buyback amount that exceeds 1% of their market value, with Haitai New Light, Sanor Bio, and Huaming Equipment in the board proposal stage [19] Group 6: Institutional Fund Flow - From March 10 to March 14, 2025, various sectors such as non-bank financials, media, textiles, steel, and utilities received net inflows from institutional funds [22] - In the past 30 days, sectors like real estate, textiles, building materials, and food and beverage also saw net inflows [26] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - For institutional research, it is recommended to focus on Ningbo Bank, which has high research activity and a reported 6% increase in net profit for 2024 [28] - For significant shareholder increases, attention is drawn to Xinjie Energy, Wanrun Co., Xingfa Group, and Lege Co., which have a proposed increase amount exceeding 1% of their market value [28] - For buybacks, companies with significant buyback amounts and those in the board proposal stage, such as Haitai New Light, Sanor Bio, and Huaming Equipment, are recommended for attention [28]