Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai recommends a "buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) with a target price of HKD 23.3, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price, driven by the growth in non-auto insurance as a key engine for premium growth in the context of China's economic transformation and increasing social risk protection needs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved insurance service revenue of CNY 385.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with auto insurance revenue at CNY 227.6 billion (up 3.7%) and non-auto insurance revenue at CNY 158.3 billion (up 9.3%) [1] - The net profit for the same period reached CNY 40.3 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 50.5% [1] - Total investment income for the first three quarters was CNY 35.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with an annualized total investment return rate of 5.4%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Non-Auto Insurance Growth - Non-auto insurance original premium income reached CNY 223.06 billion in the first three quarters, accounting for 50.3% of total premiums, surpassing auto insurance [2] - A new regulatory policy effective November 1, 2025, aims to manage rates in the non-auto insurance sector, which is expected to enhance underwriting profit margins and improve the comprehensive cost ratio for non-auto insurance [2] - The company targets to maintain a comprehensive cost ratio of below 96% for auto insurance and below 99% for non-auto insurance in 2025 [2] Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - The company has initiated an internationalization strategy aimed at significantly increasing overseas business within five years, aligning with the trend of Chinese enterprises going global and the internationalization of the RMB [3] - The strategy focuses on servicing Chinese products and enterprises, particularly in the areas of new energy vehicles and overseas infrastructure construction [3] - The company has successfully launched related businesses in Hong Kong and Thailand, with plans to expand into Europe and Southeast Asia, leveraging its experience in new energy vehicle insurance to create a competitive advantage [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai recommends a "buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), projecting revenues and net profits for 2025-2027, with a target price of HKD 25.98 based on an 8.5x PE valuation for 2026 [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 33.947 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 2.853 billion, up 6.11% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of CNY 11.350 billion, a decrease of 5.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 1.023 billion, down 4.51% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in oil prices, typhoon-related production cuts, and rising natural gas prices were the main factors affecting performance [1]. Production and Discoveries - The company achieved a record high net production of oil and gas for the first three quarters, totaling 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year [1]. - In the first three quarters, the average Brent crude oil price was USD 69.91 per barrel, down 14.6% year-on-year, while the realized gas price was USD 7.86 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company made five new discoveries and successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, expanding its reserves significantly [2]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the year 2025-2027, subject to shareholder approval [2]. - The company has healthy operating cash flow under the current oil price environment, with a current dividend yield of 6.7%, highlighting its strong dividend attributes [2].

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has issued a "buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), forecasting revenues of RMB 413.2 billion, RMB 423.8 billion, and RMB 442.9 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of RMB 132.7 billion, RMB 134.3 billion, and RMB 140.9 billion respectively [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 33.947 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.853 billion, up 6.11% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 11.350 billion in the third quarter, a decrease of 5.75% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.023 billion, down 4.51% year-on-year [1] - The decline in oil prices, typhoon-related production cuts, and rising natural gas prices were the main factors affecting performance [1] Production and Discoveries - The company achieved a record high net production of oil and gas in the first three quarters, reaching 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year [1] - In the first three quarters, the average price of Brent crude oil was USD 69.91 per barrel, down 14.6% year-on-year, while the realized gas price was USD 7.86 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.0% year-on-year [1] - The company made five new discoveries and successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, expanding its reserves significantly [2] Dividend and Cash Flow - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027, subject to shareholder approval [2] - The company has healthy operating cash flow under the current oil price environment, with a current dividend yield of 6.7%, highlighting its high dividend attribute [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a gradual stabilization in its core business, leading to a significant improvement in shareholder returns, with a target price adjustment to $74.5 or HKD 57.9, maintaining a buy rating [1] Performance Overview - For FY26Q1, the company reported a net revenue of $1.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, slightly exceeding previous guidance [1] - Operating profit reached $310 million, up 6% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP operating profit was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $240 million, down 1.9% year-on-year, primarily due to dividend withholding tax and fluctuations in other income [1] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] Education Business Performance - In FY26Q1, the overseas exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses grew by 1.0% and 2.0% year-on-year, respectively, with rapid growth in overseas youth exam training partially offsetting declines in adult exams [2] - The university and adult exam business saw a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [2] - New business revenue increased by 15.3% year-on-year, with non-academic tutoring registrations reaching 530,000, a 9.5% increase [2] - The number of active paying users for smart learning systems and devices reached 452,000 in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [2] FY26Q2 and FY26 Outlook - The company expects FY26Q2 net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 12% [3] - The net revenue forecast for FY26 remains unchanged, with expected total revenue between $5.145 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10% [3] Shareholder Return Plan - In July 2025, the company approved a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return no less than 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders starting from FY26 [4] - The announced shareholder return plan for FY26 includes a cash dividend of $190 million (to be paid in two installments) and a $300 million share buyback within the next 12 months, resulting in a total return of approximately $490 million [4]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has given New Oriental-S (09901, EDU.US) a target price of $74.5 / HKD 57.9 based on a 25x PE for FY26E net profit, maintaining a buy rating due to the stabilization of core business and significant shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - For FY26Q1, the company reported a net revenue of $1.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, slightly exceeding previous guidance [2] - Operating profit reached $310 million, up 6% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP operating profit was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $240 million, down 1.9% year-on-year, primarily due to dividend withholding tax and fluctuations in other income [2] Group 2: Education Business Performance - In FY26Q1, the overseas exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses grew by 1.0% and 2.0% year-on-year, respectively, with youth exam training showing faster growth [3] - The university and adult exam business saw a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [3] - New business revenue increased by 15.3% year-on-year, with non-academic tutoring registrations reaching 530,000, a 9.5% increase [3] - The active paying users for the smart learning system and devices reached 452,000, up 39.9% year-on-year [3] Group 3: FY26Q2 and FY26 Outlook - The company expects FY26Q2 net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 12% [4] - For FY26, the total net revenue is projected to be between $5.145 billion and $5.39 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10% [4] Group 4: Shareholder Return Plan - In July 2025, the company approved a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return no less than 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders starting from FY26 [5] - The shareholder return plan includes a cash dividend of $190 million (to be paid in two installments) and a $300 million buyback within the next 12 months, resulting in a total return rate of approximately 5% [5] - The total planned return through dividends and buybacks amounts to $490 million [5]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年10月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 第一上海投資有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年11月4日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00227 | 說明 | | 普通股 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 2,190,679,905 | | 0 | | 2,190,679,905 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai highlights that Pop Mart (09992) has exceeded expectations in Q3 revenue performance and has a strong outlook for Q4, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 132.9 billion, 197.8 billion, and 252.0 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 400.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 75.3% from the current stock price and a buy rating [1] Domestic Online Business Performance - The domestic offline channel saw a revenue increase of 130-135% in Q3, attributed to optimized store experiences and improved operational efficiency, maintaining an average store efficiency above double [2] - The online channel performed exceptionally well, with a year-on-year growth of 300-305%, driven by effective conversion from live e-commerce, deep operation of private traffic through box machines, and recognition of some Q2 pre-sale orders in Q3 [2] Overseas Business Growth - In Q3 2025, overseas revenue continued to grow significantly, with the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) increasing by 170-175%, the Americas by 1265-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735-740% [3] - The company is rapidly expanding its market presence by opening new stores, with the number of overseas stores reaching 140 by August 20, 2025, and expected to reach 200 by year-end [3] - Future plans include exploring emerging markets in the Middle East, Central Europe, and Central South America, while also establishing flagship stores in major global cities like Paris, Sydney, Milan, and New York [3] New Product Success - The market demand for new products remains high, with strong growth momentum. The Halloween-themed "Why So Serious" plush series launched on October 9 sold out quickly, and several regular items are selling at multiple times their original price [4] - The "Starry Person" product has seen rapid market recognition and appreciation through series operation, with a secondary market premium of 99%, second only to LABUBU's 215% [4] - Collaborations with popular media, such as the SKULLPANDA series linked to the show "Wednesday," have significantly boosted brand awareness and engagement in the North American market [4] Q4 Growth Catalysts - Looking ahead to Q4, the domestic market will experience major e-commerce events like "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," while overseas markets will see traditional consumption peaks during Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [5] - The company is expected to launch several holiday-themed new products and replenish popular items, which is likely to reignite global consumer purchasing enthusiasm and support Q4 performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai highlights that Pop Mart (09992) has exceeded expectations in Q3 revenue performance and has a strong outlook for Q4, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 132.9 billion, 197.8 billion, and 252.0 billion respectively, with a target price of 400.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 75.3% from the current stock price, and a buy rating [1] Group 1: Domestic Performance - The domestic online business has shown remarkable performance, with offline revenue in Q3 growing by 130-135%, attributed to improved store experience and operational efficiency, maintaining an average store efficiency above double [1] - The online channel has performed exceptionally well, with a year-on-year growth of 300%-305%, driven by effective conversion from live e-commerce, deep operation of private traffic, and recognition of some Q2 pre-sale orders in Q3 [1] Group 2: Overseas Growth - The overseas business continues to experience explosive growth, with the Americas being the main growth engine; Q3 overseas revenue grew significantly, with the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) increasing by 170%-175%, the Americas by 1265%-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735%-740% [2] - The company is rapidly expanding its market presence by opening new stores, with the number of overseas stores reaching 140 as of August 20, 2025, and expected to reach 200 by the end of the year [2] - Future plans include exploring emerging markets in the Middle East, Central Europe, and Central South America, while also establishing flagship stores in key global cities such as Paris, Sydney, Milan, and New York [2] Group 3: Product Innovation - The market demand for new products remains strong, with the Halloween-themed "Why So Serious" plush series selling out quickly, and several regular items commanding multiple times their original price [3] - The "Starry Person" product has seen a rapid increase in market heat and consumer recognition, with a secondary market premium of 99%, second only to LABUBU's 215% [3] - Collaborations with popular media, such as the SKULLPANDA series linked to the show "Wednesday," have effectively boosted brand awareness and engagement in the North American market [3] Group 4: Q4 Outlook - The Q4 outlook is promising, with the domestic market anticipating major e-commerce events like "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," while overseas markets will benefit from traditional holiday shopping seasons including Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [4] - The company plans to launch several holiday-themed new products and restock popular items, which is expected to reignite consumer purchasing enthusiasm and support Q4 performance [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, approaching 4000 points, and the ChiNext Index surpassing 3200 points [1] - The market turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan, marking a new high in nearly two weeks [1] - Key sectors that saw significant gains included consumer electronics, rare metals, storage chips, and controllable nuclear fusion, while sectors like gaming, engineering consulting services, wind power equipment, and beverage dairy experienced declines [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The electronic industry attracted over 13.9 billion yuan in net inflow from major funds, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw over 6.2 billion yuan [1] - Other sectors such as telecommunications and machinery also received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows, while media, power equipment, and real estate experienced net outflows [1] Company-Specific Developments - ShenKong Co., Ltd. (神开股份) opened at the limit down price but quickly rebounded to close at the limit up price, achieving an 8.5-year high with a trading volume of 2.82 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 57.16% [2] - ShenKong Co. expressed interest in participating in post-war reconstruction projects in Russia, highlighting its historical presence in the market despite recent challenges due to international financial settlement issues [4] - Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. (中持股份) experienced a contrasting performance, opening at the limit up price but closing at the limit down price, with a trading volume of 668 million yuan and a turnover rate of 16.95% [4][6] - Zhongzhi announced that its major shareholder, Changjiang Environmental Group, plans to transfer its entire stake of 63.13 million shares, representing 24.73% of the total share capital [6] Stock Performance - Nongxin Technology (农心科技) saw significant volatility, initially dropping 8.37% before surging to a limit up, marking its third consecutive day of gains and reaching a three-year high with a trading volume of 436 million yuan and a turnover rate of 34.48% [6] - Nongxin Technology stated that it had not identified any undisclosed significant information affecting its stock price and that its operational conditions remained normal [8]

智通财经APP获悉，第一上海发布研报称，铀的新周期由三件事叠加：①需求持续上修;②中游(转化/浓 缩)产能紧&去俄化;③二次供给占比回落。三者共同造成结构性紧平衡。根据缺口测算来看本轮各环节 机会：铀产业链的特点是技术密集且高度集中，其上游和中游环节主要由少数大型企业控制且对下游的 核电站供应具有重要影响。上游持续看好具备北美企业与生产成本较低的企业，将在铀价上行阶段持续 释放业绩弹性。中游来看，去俄化的政策导向持续提升限制区域企业发展空间。 上游：供需平衡角度上WNA认为全球铀精矿2025~2027年勉强平衡，缺口从2026年的-6百万磅走阔到 2029年-14百万磅(-3.5到-6.2%)，如期间价格上涨足够则2030年有望平衡;其中2025年二次供应(库存再释 放/尾料再处理等，不包括金融需求/战略储备)占全球反应堆需求比例13%，但受限于一次供应的预计长 期回落到6%;中游：转化环节持续短缺，浓缩由于欧美去俄化存在区域性缺口，且推高对于铀精矿的需 求。根据测算，考虑去俄化预计到2030年浓缩环节缺口为30%。 报告中称，目前核能贡献了全球10%的发电量，贡献了欧洲25%、美国20%的发电量，成为全球重 ...