Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer (00291.HK) reported a decline in revenue for the first time in five years, with total revenue for 2024 at 38.635 billion yuan, down from 38.932 billion yuan in the previous year [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the total revenue was 38.635 billion yuan, compared to 38.932 billion yuan in 2023, marking a decrease [1] - The total comprehensive income for the year was 4.767 billion yuan, down from 5.223 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - From 2020 to 2024, the total revenue figures were 31.45 billion yuan, 33.39 billion yuan, 35.26 billion yuan, 38.93 billion yuan, and 38.64 billion yuan respectively, indicating a downward trend in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2020 to 2024 was 2.094 billion yuan, 4.587 billion yuan, 4.344 billion yuan, 5.153 billion yuan, and 4.739 billion yuan respectively [1] Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - JPMorgan maintained an "Overweight" rating for China Resources Beer, lowering the target price from 45 HKD to 40 HKD, citing a recovery in consumer sentiment and sales momentum in the first two months of the year [1] - The bank forecasts a sales growth of 4.1% and profit growth of 15.2% for the current year, driven by product premiumization and cost optimization [1] - The company is considering increasing its dividend payout ratio to 60% due to strong cash flow [1] - Huatai Securities rated the stock as "Buy," with a target price reduced to 37.41 HKD [2] - Zhongyin International also rated the stock as "Buy," increasing the target price to 31.10 HKD [3] - Puyin International rated the stock as "Buy," raising the target price to 34.30 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) with a current price of HKD 30.05 [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see both volume and price increases in 2025, with a high certainty of profit margin improvement [1] - The beer business showed resilience in a complex environment, with high-end products maintaining rapid growth [8] - The white liquor business has achieved significant growth through strategic brand building and market expansion [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 38.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit of CNY 4.74 billion, down 8% [5] - The core EBIT for 2024 was CNY 6.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] Beer Business - In 2024, the company sold 10.87 million kiloliters of beer, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 1.5% to CNY 3,355 per kiloliter [6] - High-end and above product sales grew over 9% year-on-year, with the company’s high-end beer sales ranking among the industry leaders [6][8] - The company’s online business GMV grew over 30% year-on-year, leading the overall instant retail beer market [6] White Liquor Business - The white liquor business revenue grew by 4% in 2024, with EBITDA increasing by 0.5% [6] - The sales volume of major products in the white liquor segment increased by 35%, contributing over 70% to the business revenue [10] - The company aims for double-digit revenue growth in the white liquor business in 2025, focusing on brand building and market share enhancement [10] Future Outlook - The company expects improved beer sales in 2025 due to economic recovery and favorable market conditions [8] - The introduction of the "Three Precision Principles" aims to streamline operations and reduce costs, potentially enhancing profitability [10] - The forecast for net profit in 2025 is CNY 5.31 billion, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a notable increase in sales of premium products, indicating a successful shift towards higher-margin offerings [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, with significant brand performance improvements, particularly for the "摘要" brand [8] - Future profit forecasts are optimistic, with expected revenue growth and improving earnings per share over the next few years [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.76%, while net profit was 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit, excluding one-time costs, was approximately 4.509 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue was 36.486 billion yuan, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with specific brands like "喜力" seeing nearly 20% growth [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, with EBITDA of 847 million yuan, up 7.9% [8] Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.381 billion yuan, 41.839 billion yuan, and 43.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.72 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to focus on efficiency improvements and high-end product offerings, with a positive outlook for 2025 [7][8] - The beer business is projected to recover with unit sales growth, driven by high-end products and strategic marketing initiatives [8] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 38,932 million, with a slight decline to 38,635 million in 2024, followed by growth to 40,015 million in 2025 [1] - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 5,153 million, decreasing to 4,739 million in 2024, but expected to rise to 5,276 million in 2025 [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 1.59 in 2023, dropping to 1.46 in 2024, and recovering to 1.63 in 2025 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: The current P/E ratio is 15.99, expected to decrease to 15.62 in 2025 [1] Business Performance - **Beer Segment**: Revenue from the beer business is expected to be 36,486 million in 2024, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [7][8] - **Cost Management**: The company is focusing on cost optimization, with a projected gross margin increase to 41.06% in 2024 [8] - **Wine Segment**: The wine business is also undergoing restructuring, with revenue expected to reach 21.49 million in 2024 [8] Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its high-end product offerings and expand its market presence, with expectations of double-digit growth in key brands [8] - The strategic focus on premiumization and cost efficiency is anticipated to yield better profit margins in the coming years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) with a current price of HKD 30.05 [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see both volume and price increases in 2025, with a high certainty of profit margin improvement [1] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 38.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit of CNY 4.74 billion, down 8% year-on-year [5][11] - The beer sales volume in 2024 was 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 1.5% to CNY 3,355 per kiloliter [6][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's core EBIT for 2024 was CNY 6.344 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the beer business margin at 41.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points [7] - The company distributed dividends totaling CNY 2.466 billion in 2024, with a payout ratio of 52%, expected to rise to over 60% in the future [7] Business Segments - The high-end beer segment showed strong growth, with sales of premium products increasing by over 9% year-on-year [6] - The white wine business achieved a revenue growth of 4% in 2024, with a significant contribution from high-end products, which accounted for over 70% of the segment's revenue [6][10] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for double-digit revenue growth in its white wine business and plans to optimize its product pricing and brand strategy [10] - The company introduced a "Three Precision Principles" strategy to streamline operations and reduce costs, which is expected to enhance profitability [10] - The forecast for net profit in 2025 is CNY 5.308 billion, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to focus on efficiency improvements and high-end product offerings, with a projected recovery in revenue and profit performance in the coming years [7][8] - The beer business is anticipated to benefit from a shift towards premium products, with sales volume and revenue outperforming the industry [7][8] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend payouts [8] Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue was 38,932 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. In 2024, revenue is projected to decrease slightly to 38,635 million RMB, a decline of 0.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 5,153 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 18.62%. For 2024, it is expected to drop to 4,739 million RMB, a decrease of 8.03% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.59 RMB, projected to decrease to 1.46 RMB in 2024, before recovering to 1.63 RMB in 2025 [1] Business Performance - The beer segment's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 36,486 million RMB, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [7][8] - The company is focusing on high-end products, with sales of premium beers increasing by 9% year-on-year [7][8] - The white liquor segment is also undergoing optimization, with a projected revenue of 21.49 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a growth of 3.97% [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its dual focus on beer and white liquor, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 52.76 billion RMB, 57.22 billion RMB, and 61.34 billion RMB respectively, indicating growth rates of 11.33%, 8.45%, and 7.21% [8] - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a strong growth trajectory in its premium beer offerings, with a focus on cost optimization and efficiency improvements [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 38.635 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.739 billion, down 8.0% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw revenue of 14.891 billion, a decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit of 0.34 million, a significant drop of 93.3% [1]. - The beer segment showed strong performance, particularly in high-end products, with revenue of 36.486 billion, down 1.0% year-on-year. The sales volume and price per ton decreased by 2.5% and increased by 1.5%, respectively. High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with Heineken sales increasing nearly 20% [1][2]. - The white liquor segment achieved revenue of 2.149 billion, up 4.0% year-on-year, with a notable 35% increase in sales of high-end products contributing over 70% to the segment's revenue [2]. - The company realized a gross margin of 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and an EBITDA of 8.694 billion, up 3% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 22.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [3]. - The company plans to continue its high-end strategy and implement a "Three Precision" management strategy, expecting a recovery in growth due to improved dining demand and sustained cost benefits [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 38.635 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1%. The net profit was 4.739 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8% [6]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 5.243 billion, 5.826 billion, and 6.568 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 11.1%, and 12.7% [4][6]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.97 in 2024 to 13.00 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [6][13].

本报记者 党鹏 成都报道 3月18日午间，华润啤酒（00291.HK）发布公告，集团营业额人民币386.35亿元，同比减少0.76%；股 东应占溢利47.39亿元，同比减少8.03%。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，按照目前各大啤酒企业公布的2024年财务数据，百威亚太、重庆啤酒在 2024年业绩呈现下滑，青岛啤酒在去年前三季度营收下滑。 燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）发布的业绩预告显示，公司预计2024年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润10亿 ～11亿元，比上年同期增长55.11%～70.62%。此外，公司在2024年前三季度销量为344.73万千升，2023 年前三季度的销量为343.09万千升，同比略有增长，在啤酒行业已经算不俗的表现。 华润还是靠高端支撑 华润啤酒方面称，面对内外部环境多变、消费分化的存缩量波动时代，集团于2024年实现啤酒销量约 1087.4万千升，表现跑赢主要竞争对手。数据显示，2023年华润啤酒的销售总量为1115.1万千升，显然 销量有所下滑。 此外，华润集团高端化发展持续发力，高档及以上啤酒销量较去年同期取得超过9%增长，其中，"喜 力?"在去年高基数的情况下仍取得近两成增长，"老 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the beer upgrade continues while the white liquor business benefits from synergy. The company has shown resilience in its performance despite a slight decline in revenue and profit [6]. - The company is undergoing a structural upgrade in its beer business, with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive profit growth [6]. - The white liquor segment is also expected to contribute positively to profits if economic conditions improve [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 38,932 million RMB, with a slight decline to 38,635 million RMB in 2024, followed by a recovery to 39,286 million RMB in 2025 [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 5,153 million RMB in 2023 to 4,739 million RMB in 2024, before increasing to 5,279 million RMB in 2025 [5][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 16.6 for 2023, decreasing to 14.0 by 2027, indicating a potential for value appreciation [5]. Business Performance Insights - The beer business generated revenue of 36,486 million RMB in 2024, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [6]. - The high-end beer segment (priced above 10 RMB) saw a 9% increase in sales volume, with notable growth in brands like Heineken [6]. - The white liquor business achieved revenue of 2,150 million RMB in 2024, with a 35% increase in sales volume for the flagship product, indicating strong market performance [6].

大和发表报告指，重申对华润啤酒的"买入"评级，目标价由35.8港元上调至38港元。大和指，虽然去年 宏观环境充满挑战，公司的核心EBITDA仍按年增长3%至87亿元，受惠于啤酒平均售价扩张1.5%。尽 管去年基数较高，但润啤今年一至二月的啤酒销量仍恢复按年增长，显示下游需求逐渐复苏。至于投资 者对2025年来自百威啤酒在8元至12元产品市场竞争加剧的忧虑，公司管理层表示有信心捍卫其市场份 额，并强调其强大的品牌组合及有效的供应链和渠道管理。该行相信，由于润啤品牌的产品组合提升更 为明显，因此润啤今年推动平均售价和利润率扩张的能见度将高于同业。 大行评级｜大和：上调华润啤酒目标价至38港元 相 信利润率扩张的能见度高于同业 ...