各位股友，大家好，今日同大家睇吓「大市火車頭」港交所（00388）。以今日（1月30日）盤中數據嚟睇，情況有啲令人擔憂，截至下午兩點03分，股價最 新報430.2元，急跌超過3%，跑輸大市。成交額接近16億，算係有啲交投，但似乎係沽壓主導。成個大市氣氛轉弱，連帶呢隻市場寒暑表都受壓。你哋覺得 今次跌穿咗唔少平均線，係大戶散貨先兆，定只係一次健康調整，為下一輪升浪蓄力？ 技術走勢與關鍵位攻防 從圖表睇，港交所今日呢支陰燭幾關鍵，跌穿咗10天線（約430.16元）同30天線（約422.61元），暫時喺60天線（約418.91元）之上找到喘息空間。而家個 格局係，向下首要支持位要睇419元，如果連呢個位都失守，下一站就要試413元嘅較強支持區。至於向上，反彈第一個重型阻力喺445元，要收復返呢個位 先可以話脫離危險區，再上望就係452元。技術指標總結雖然話「買入」，但強度只有7。5日振幅有5.7%，反映波動性唔細。MACD同保力加通道卻發出 「買入」信號。其他指標如RSI喺57，威廉指標、隨機指標等都處於「中立」或「賣出」狀態。或者可以從波動中找到窩輪短炒契機。 窩輪與牛熊證機會風險並存 喺咁嘅波動市況，衍生工具可 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) for 2025 and 2026, introducing a profit estimate of HKD 17.9 billion for 2027, with a target price of HKD 500, indicating a potential upside of 12.6% based on current P/E ratios [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For Q4 2025, CICC predicts a year-on-year profit decline of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24% [2] - Total revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to increase by 4% year-on-year but decrease by 15% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 6.61 billion, with core business revenue projected to rise by 13% year-on-year but fall by 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 5.81 billion [2] - Full-year total revenue is forecasted to grow by 27% to HKD 28.46 billion, with profit expected to increase by 31% to HKD 17.15 billion [2] Group 2: Trading Activity - In Q4 2025, the average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks is expected to be HKD 229.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20% [2] - Southbound ADT is projected to rise by 35% year-on-year to HKD 105.7 billion, while northbound ADT is expected to remain flat year-on-year at HKD 231.1 billion [2] - Derivatives trading is anticipated to see a slight decline, with overall ADV down by 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to 1.61 million contracts [2] Group 3: Investment Income - CICC forecasts a significant drop in investment income for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25% [3] - The decline in investment income is attributed to reduced margin investment returns and external investment redemptions, alongside changes in margin interest rebate policies [3] Group 4: Long-term Value and Market Dynamics - The average daily trading for Hong Kong stocks has reached HKD 267.6 billion since the beginning of the year, indicating a 7% increase compared to the full year of 2025 [4] - CICC notes that for every HKD 10 billion increase in ADT in 2026, the year-on-year profit growth rate could increase by 2.4 percentage points [4] - The valuation trends of HKEX have historically aligned with the Hang Seng Index, but since September, HKEX has underperformed the index by 11 percentage points [4]

4Q移动平均6M/1M/隔夜拆借HIBOR分别环比-0.26ppt/+1.17ppt/+1.16ppt，长端收益利率下滑而短端成本 利率回升下保证金息差或有所收窄，同时4Q起港交所调整保证金利息返利政策、带动资金成本有所提 升，叠加港交所衍生品保证金要求环比下降，或带动保证金投资收益下行。 关注港股beta的同时、更聚焦"资产+资金"双重共振下的中长期配置价值 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，基本维持香港交易所(00388)25e/26e盈利不变，引入27年盈利179 亿港币。当前交易于33x/31x 26e/27e P/E，维持目标价500港币不变、对应37x/35x 26e/27e P/E及12.6%的 上行空间;维持跑赢行业评级。 港交所计划于2月26日披露4Q25业绩：该行预计4Q25收入同比+4%/环比-15%至66.1亿港币，剔除投资 收益后主营业务收入同比+13%/环比-13%至58.1亿港币，盈利同比-1%/环比-24%至37.3亿港币;预计全年 总收入同比+27%至284.6亿港币，盈利同比+31%至171.5亿港币。 现货及衍生品活跃度环比边际回落、商品成交维持高位，该行预计4Q主营费 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,742.89, down by 225.20 points or 0.81% as of January 29, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,909.81 and a low of 27,419.65 during the trading session, with an average price of 27,664.73 [1] - The 52-week high for the index is 27,909.81, while the 52-week low is 19,335.70 [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Most large-cap stocks experienced declines, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 138.219, up 0.45% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 619.286, down 0.44% from the Hong Kong close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) latest price is HKD 622.000, with a slight increase of 1.000 or 0.16% [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) latest price is HKD 173.300, down by 0.200 or 0.12% [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) latest price is HKD 137.600, up by 0.100 or 0.07% [3] - China Construction Bank (00939) latest price is HKD 8.160, up by 0.130 or 1.62% [3] - AIA Group (01299) latest price is HKD 90.950, up by 2.100 or 2.36% [3] - Xiaomi Group (01810) latest price is HKD 36.620, up by 0.300 or 0.83% [3] - NetEase (099999) latest price is HKD 206.600, down by 5.400 or 2.55% [3] - Meituan (03690) latest price is HKD 98.600, up by 0.250 or 0.25% [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) latest price is HKD 6.640, up by 0.050 or 0.76% [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) latest price is HKD 444.200, up by 5.000 or 1.14% [3] - Ping An Insurance (02318) latest price is HKD 73.300, up by 2.350 or 3.31% [3] - Baidu Group (09888) latest price is HKD 155.500, down by 0.600 or 0.38% [3] - China Bank (03988) latest price is HKD 4.760, up by 0.090 or 1.93% [3] - BYD Company (01211) latest price is HKD 101.800, down by 1.000 or 0.97% [3] - JD.com (09618) latest price is HKD 114.600, down by 1.700 or 1.46% [3] - Ctrip Group (09961) latest price is HKD 482.200, down by 13.200 or 2.66% [3]

Group 1 - The launch of the Hang Seng Gold ETF marks Hong Kong's first ETF that supports physical gold redemption through banks, with an initial price of HKD 16 per unit and a minimum investment of approximately HKD 800 [1][2] - The Hong Kong government supports the ETF's launch as part of its vision to develop Hong Kong into an international gold trading hub, contributing to the growth and innovation of the local gold market [1] - The ETF allows investors to redeem physical gold directly at banks, with all storage, trading, and redemption activities conducted in Hong Kong, enhancing the product's appeal [1][2] Group 2 - The ETF's first-day performance was strong, closing at HKD 17.44, representing a 9% increase from its issue price [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) anticipates more gold-themed ETFs to be launched, enhancing the variety of precious metal-related products available to investors [2] - HKEX aims to continue collaborating with market stakeholders to drive product innovation and reinforce Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [2]

Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Hang Seng Index ADR rising but closing lower compared to Hong Kong's market close, at 27,511.69 points, down 315.22 points or 1.13% [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 135.752, down 1.27% from the Hong Kong market close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 613.539, down 1.20% from the Hong Kong market close [2] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 621.000, up 2.31%, ADR price HKD 613.539, down 1.20% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 173.500, up 2.12%, ADR price HKD 171.309, down 1.26% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 137.500, up 2.23%, ADR price HKD 135.752, down 1.27% [3] - Xiaomi Group: Latest price HKD 36.320, up 2.14%, ADR price HKD 35.857, down 1.27% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 88.850, up 2.78%, ADR price HKD 87.888, down 1.08% [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 56.86, up 1.86%, ADR price HKD 97.328, down 1.04% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 102.800, up 4.58%, ADR price HKD 101.502, down 1.26% [3]

总体而言，高盛集团首席执行官苏德巍(David Solomon)公开表示，展望2026年，港股IPO市场有望迎来 强劲复苏，并将成为"非常好的一年"。高盛方面认为，若宏观环境保持相对稳定、市场流动性持续改 善，香港2026年在IPO数量和融资规模方面均有望实现明显回升。 值得注意的是，港股IPO热潮涌动之下，业务量的激增也导致"赶工"现象频频出现。部分内地企业为启 动境内的监管审批流程，出现了向港交所提交不完整的"占位"申请、上市申请文件质量低劣且审查不 足、保荐人对监管问询反馈滞后且不到位、发售流程执行混乱等问题，引起了市场关注。 港交所集团行政总裁陈翊庭在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间接受媒体采访时表示，近期港股IPO出现质 量不佳的原因，是IPO数量突然上升带来的兴奋情绪，导致资源与协作面临压力。IPO质量绝对"不能妥 协"，这是维护市场信任的基础，须确保每宗上市申请的质量及尽职调查到位。近期已就部分质量欠佳 的IPO申请发出的警示，是在提醒专业人士速度必须与质量并行。 （上接1版） 上述A股公司普遍在公告中表示，赴港上市是为了推动公司全球化战略深入实施、拓宽融资渠道、加速 发展海外业务。在出海趋势下，港股 ...

2025年港股IPO行情火热，全年IPO数量达117家，募资金额达2863.3亿港元，一举位居全球IPO募资榜 首位置。步入2026年，港股IPO依旧火热，超350家企业排队等待。 然而，日前关于港股IPO收紧的传闻却在市场上流传开来。该传闻指出，有券商收到指导，要求拟赴港 上市的AH企业需满足300亿元的市值门槛。 针对上述传闻，湾财社记者向多位券商人士核实，均表示"没听说过这个说法"。不过，有券商人士强 调，其所在公司近期对于赴港上市的项目门槛确有提升，对于不满足市值要求的，需论证行业龙头属 性。 聚焦市场传闻背后，湾财社注意到，港股上市规则调整带来了政策红利，港股IPO的赚钱效应则进一步 抬升投资者热情。 AH上市门槛提升至300亿元？ 2025年以来，随着政策放宽和市场情绪回暖，港股IPO热度走高，2025年全年IPO数量达117家，募资金 额达2863.3亿港元，同比增长224.8%；同时，再融资的规模也同步上升至3263.7亿港元，同比增长 272.9%。此外，2025年AtoH项目共19个，占比达16.4%，为近10年来最高，且显著高于过往各年。 多项增长、新高数据之下，2025年成为了港交所2 ...

恒生黃金 ETF 的交易安排 車頁: 參與者一般查詢熱線 1(電話 :2840 3626 電子郵箱 : trd@hkex.com.hk) 查詢 : 1月28日，香港交易所发布恒生黄金ETF的交易安排。恒生黄金ETF(03170)已获香港证券及期货事务监 察委员会认可为集体投资计划并预计于2026年1月29日(星期四)开始在交易所买卖及获准列入认可卖空 指定证券。资料显示，恒生黄金ETF每手买卖单位50个。 HKEX 香 港 交 易 所 线 CT/014/26 Ref. No .: 日期 28/01/2026 Date 香港聯合交易所有限公司 (面湛交易及結蘭所有限公司全資附屬公司) THE STOCK EXCHANGE OF HONG KONG LIMITED (A wholly-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited) 通告 CIRCULAR 如 需 要 更 多 有 關 交 易 所 買 賣 基 金 的 資 料 · 請參閱載於香港交易所披露易網站及香港交易 所網站的交易所買賣產品版頁由基金經理人發出的招股章程及其他文件 · 交易 ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月28日，香港交易所发布恒生黄金ETF的交易安排。恒生黄金ETF(03170)已获香 港证券及期货事务监察委员会认可为集体投资计划并预计干2026年1月29日(星期四)开始在交易所买卖 及获准列入认可卖空指定证券。资料显示，恒生黄金ETF每手买卖单位50个。 參與者一般查詢熱線 (電話:2840 3626 電子郵箱:trd@hkex.com.hk) 查詢: 交易所參與者請注意 · 恒生黃金 ETF(股份代號:3170)已獲證券及期貨車務監察委員會認可為集 體投資計劃並預計於 2026年1月29日(星期四)開始在交易所買賣及獨准列入認可賣空指定證券 · 在參與上述交易所買賣基金買賣前 · 投資者應經常參考基金經理提供的基金資料 · 如每單位資產淨 值 · 現附上該產品之詳細交易安排(附件一)以供參考 · 有關交易所參與者已獲發證券莊家許可證,於同日開始生效 · 為上述交易所買賣基金提供莊家活動, 有關證券莊家已列舉於附件一以供參考 · 有關證券莊家必須邊守國於本通告附件二的證券莊家責任 及交易所規則的證券莊家規例 · 有關任何交易安排不定時的更改 ·包括但不限於價位應用、適用於證券莊家的莊 ...