Overall Situation - The tourism revenue shows steady growth, but travel demand appears relatively flat, with domestic travel during the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025 expected to reach 119 million trips, a 5.7% increase, and total domestic travel expenditure projected at 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% [1][2] - Daily average inbound and outbound tourism is 1.969 million people, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is below the official expectation of 2.15 million, representing a 12.2% increase [1][5] Transportation Situation - The total cross-regional personnel flow is expected to reach 657 million during the holiday, with a daily average of 21.9 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [3] - Railway passenger volume is projected at 47.108 million, with a daily average of 15.7027 million, showing a 2.3% increase [3] - Road travel is expected to account for 600 million trips, with a daily average of 20 million, marking a 3.14% increase [3] Hainan Duty-Free Sales - During the Dragon Boat Festival, Hainan's duty-free shopping amounted to 187 million yuan, a decrease of 8.8%, with 31,300 shoppers, down 18.9% [4] - The average spending per person was 5,974 yuan, an increase of 12.5% [4] Outbound Tourism - The total number of inbound and outbound personnel during the holiday reached 5.907 million, with a peak of 2.086 million on June 1 [5] - The number of inbound foreign visitors under visa-free policies increased by 59.4% compared to the previous year [5] Investment Recommendations - The industry suggests focusing on the recovery of short-distance self-driving and family travel, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies related to leisure tourism and outbound travel, including Ctrip Group, Tongcheng Travel, and hotels driven by business travel demand [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780) [1] Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel by 8%, from HKD 26 to HKD 28, based on the latest foreign exchange forecasts, while keeping profit forecasts and other key predictions unchanged [1] - The firm anticipates that China's tourism demand will remain strong this year, with consumer spending shifting from shopping to travel or experiences [1] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to continue expanding its market share driven by growth in lower-tier cities, cross-selling opportunities, new business initiatives, and international expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that the tourism performance during the Dragon Boat Festival in mainland China was relatively weak, maintaining a "Buy" rating for both Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel [1] Industry Summary - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday on June 3, tourism volume and industry revenue in mainland China increased by 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Domestic passenger traffic rose by 2.5%, with rail and air travel increasing by 4.3% and 1.7%, respectively [1] - Cross-border travel volume grew by 2.7%, while visa-free entry increased significantly by 59.4% [1] Company Summary - The data for outbound and domestic travel showed some weakness, attributed to rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta and the proximity of this year's Dragon Boat Festival to the May Day holiday [1] - The inbound travel momentum remains strong, benefiting Trip.com Group (09961.HK), which saw a robust performance in family travel demand, with family-related orders accounting for 25% of total orders [1] - The overlap of Children's Day and the Dragon Boat Festival led to nearly a 90% increase in inbound travel orders for Trip.com [1] - Tongcheng Travel (00780.HK) also observed significant growth in family travel-related order volume [1] - Citigroup set a target price of $78 for Trip.com and HKD 26 for Tongcheng Travel, both maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Internet ETF is showing strong performance, with a significant increase in net value and favorable market conditions for technology stocks, particularly in the context of the AI industry transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 4, 2025, the Hong Kong Internet ETF has risen by 0.49%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Alibaba Pictures (3.33%) and Xiaomi Group (1.88%) [1]. - The Hong Kong Internet ETF has seen a net value increase of 39.38% over the past year, ranking 143 out of 2831 index stock funds, placing it in the top 5.05% [2]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% and an average monthly return of 9.47% during the rising months [2]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The ETF's Sharpe ratio since inception is 1.51, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [3]. - The relative drawdown since inception is 4.62% compared to its benchmark [4]. - The management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%, making it one of the lowest in its category [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Composition - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the index tracked by the ETF is 21.67, which is below 90.91% of the historical data over the past year, indicating a low valuation [5]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 77.23% of the total, with Alibaba-W (18.49%) and Xiaomi Group-W (15.72%) being the most significant [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [3][46]. Core Insights - The education sector has shown significant stock performance differentiation since early 2025, with notable gains in companies such as China Oriental Education (+139%) and Gaotu Group (+74%) [1][11]. - Demand within the education sector is highly variable, with high school education and K9 high-age training showing the strongest demand, while vocational schools and study abroad programs face pressure [1][11]. - The K12 education sector is entering a new phase of competition, emphasizing brand and teaching capabilities as key drivers for growth, with a slowdown in the rapid expansion of physical locations [2][28]. - The recovery pace varies among companies, with some like China Oriental Education and Gaotu Group showing strong performance due to strategic focus on K12 education [2][33]. Summary by Sections Demand Differentiation - Demand for educational services is closely tied to their effectiveness in enhancing employment and academic opportunities, with high school education being the most in-demand segment [1][11]. - The report highlights that nearly half of families allocate extra funds for children's education, indicating a robust market for educational services [11][27]. Competitive Landscape - The K12 education sector is witnessing a shift from rapid expansion to focusing on existing locations, with a notable decrease in the growth rate of K9 non-academic training institutions [2][28]. - The number of registered high school academic training institutions remains stable, suggesting a consolidation phase in the market [2][28]. Recovery Trends - Since the implementation of new regulations in May 2022, the K12 education sector has begun to recover, with companies like Zhuoyue Education focusing on compliant high school-related businesses [2][33]. - Companies such as Yuhua Education and Xijiao International Holdings are addressing financial restructuring, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment [2][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies like Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group, and Meituan, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [3][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [3][46]. Core Insights - The education sector has shown significant stock performance differentiation since early 2025, with notable gains from companies like China Oriental Education (+139%) and Gaotu Group (+74%) [1][11]. - Demand differentiation in education services is driven by the effectiveness in enhancing employment and academic opportunities, with high school education showing the most rigid demand [1][11]. - The K12 education sector is entering a new phase of competition, emphasizing brand and teaching capabilities as key drivers for growth [2][28]. - The recovery pace varies among companies, with some like China Oriental Education and Gaotu Group showing strong performance due to strategic focus on K12 education [2][33]. Summary by Sections Demand Differentiation - Demand for education services varies significantly based on the perceived value in enhancing academic and employment outcomes, with high school education and K9 high-age training showing the strongest demand [1][11]. - The consumer willingness to invest in children's education remains high, with nearly half of families allocating extra funds for this purpose [11][27]. K12 Education Competition - The K12 education sector is experiencing a slowdown in the rapid expansion of physical locations, shifting focus to enhancing existing outlets [2][28]. - The number of new K9 profit-oriented non-academic training institutions has decreased significantly in early 2025 compared to the previous year [2][28]. Recovery Trends - Since the implementation of the "Double Reduction" policy in May 2022, the K12 education sector has gradually recovered, with companies like Zhuoyue Education focusing on compliant high school-related businesses [2][33]. - Companies like China Oriental Education are expected to see a gradual easing of pandemic-related impacts as they adapt to new market conditions [2][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group, and Meituan, among others, as potential investment opportunities in the current economic environment [3][46].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in travel consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival, driven by the overlap with International Children's Day, leading to a surge in family-oriented travel products and accommodations [1][3] Group 1: Travel Trends - Domestic and international flight prices saw a decline during the Dragon Boat Festival, with domestic flight prices dropping over 20% on the first day of the holiday [1] - The booking volume for outbound connecting flights increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, outpacing the overall growth rate of outbound flight bookings by 5 percentage points [1] - The analysis indicates that travelers opting for connecting flights tend to have longer travel periods, higher price sensitivity, and are primarily from non-first-tier cities [1] Group 2: Accommodation Preferences - There was an 80% year-on-year increase in bookings for family group travel products during the holiday, with a more than 200% increase in bookings for family-themed hotel rooms [3] - High-star hotels and boutique accommodations saw a notable rise in demand, particularly in first-tier cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [3] - Local and surrounding hotel stays in Suzhou experienced a 31% year-on-year increase in occupancy, indicating a trend towards "staycations" [3] Group 3: Cultural and Recreational Activities - The popularity of non-heritage markets surged, with related content visits increasing by over 300% during the holiday [4] - Theme parks and water parks saw significant booking increases, with theme park ticket bookings up 127% and water park ticket bookings up 165% year-on-year [4] - Popular theme parks included Beijing Universal Resort, Shanghai Disneyland, and Zhuhai Chimelong Ocean Kingdom, reflecting strong consumer interest in recreational activities [4]

Core Insights - The booking popularity of family group travel products on Tongcheng Travel increased by 80% year-on-year during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday [1] - The booking popularity of family rooms on Tongcheng Travel's subsidiary, eLong Hotel Technology platform, surged by over 200% [1] - Some popular IP family rooms were fully booked before the holiday, indicating strong demand [1] - Overall, the popularity of four-star and above hotels significantly exceeded that of three-star and below hotels during the holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Elong (00780.HK) is experiencing a period of consolidation after recent upward momentum, with a closing price of HKD 21.9, reflecting a slight increase of 0.23% [1] Price Movement and Technical Analysis - The stock has shown a significant volatility with a five-day amplitude of 15.1%, indicating high market interest [1] - Current price is above all major moving averages, with the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages at HKD 21.01, HKD 21.03, and HKD 20.3 respectively, suggesting a bullish trend [1] - The stock is forming a preliminary bottom and strengthening pattern, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the positive [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level is at HKD 20.9, with a further support at HKD 19.9, which may act as potential rebound points [3] - The first key resistance level is at HKD 22.8, and a successful breakout could lead to a target of HKD 23.9 [3] - The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 52%, reflecting a generally positive market outlook [3] Technical Indicators - The RSI is at 61, indicating a strong position but not yet overbought, suggesting room for further price increases [3] - Overall technical indicators are summarized as "strong buy," with a signal strength of 16, indicating multiple indicators are aligned in a bullish signal [3] - The MACD and Ichimoku indicators are also signaling buy recommendations, reinforcing confidence in the current upward trend [3] Market Sentiment and Trading Volume - The stock's trading volume reached HKD 173 million, indicating active market participation [4] - Despite some divergence in oscillators, such as a short-term sell signal from the stochastic oscillator, other indicators like CCI and momentum oscillators are turning bullish, showing stable buying sentiment [3] - The VR ratio indicates a "oversold, potential bottoming" signal, suggesting that after high volatility adjustments, the stock is showing signs of bottoming out [3] Summary of Overall Trend - The technical trend for Tongcheng Elong is transitioning from high volatility to the early stages of an upward trend, with a solid bullish structure established [7] - If the stock can effectively break through the resistance at HKD 22.8, it will confirm the bottom structure and initiate a new upward wave [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in MACD and trading volume as key indicators for confirming the continuation of the upward trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of fuel surcharge standards for domestic flights in China is expected to positively impact short-distance travel and the upcoming summer tourism market [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from June 5, 2025, domestic flights with a distance of 800 kilometers or less will be exempt from fuel surcharges, while flights over 800 kilometers will incur a charge of 10 yuan per passenger per segment [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The new fuel surcharge policy is anticipated to influence domestic ticket prices for short-distance flights and provide a boost for post-Duanwu Festival travel [1] - The adjustment is seen as a positive signal for the upcoming summer tourism market [1]