花旗发表报告， 中芯国际与华虹 半导体2025年第四季财报基本符合公司指引，惟2026年第一季展望略 低于预期。该行指，两家企业均将 人工智能与本土替代需求视为关键驱动力，双方将共同受益于中国 供应链本土化进程及终端市场需求的多元化发展。该行将中芯国际目标价由53港元上调至75港元，评 级"中性"；华虹半导体目标价由105港元上调至115港元，评级"买入"。 ...

经济观察网 中芯国际近期公告及行业分析显示，2026年公司经营与行业环境将面临机遇与挑战并存。 公司预计2026年销售收入增幅将高于全球同业，资本开支计划与2025年（81亿美元）大致持平。短期来 看，公司对2026年第一季度的指引为销售收入环比持平，毛利率介于18%至20%之间。 公司项目推进 公司计划在2026年新增折合12英寸约4万片月产能，延续高投入节奏。行业层面，AI服务器、电源管理 芯片等需求增长导致部分成熟制程产能紧缺，中芯国际已于2025年12月对8英寸BCD工艺提价约10%， 预计2026年晶圆代工价格可能进一步传导至12英寸制程。 行业政策与环境 管理层强调，2026年将面临产业链回流带来的机遇与存储芯片周期波动的挑战。消费电子领域需求结构 性分化，AI、汽车电子等高端订单增长，而中低端订单可能承压。 财务状况 高资本开支导致折旧压力上升，公司预计2026年折旧费用同比增加约三成，将通过提升产能利用率 （2025年全年平均93.5%）和优化产品组合对冲影响。 战略推进 2025年末完成对中芯北方的全资收购（406亿元交易），预计2026年将进一步整合12英寸成熟工艺产 能，强化国产供应链地 ...

港股點評 2026年2月13日9:30 a.m 恒指跌 233 點，滬指升 2 點，標普 500 跌 108 點 港股連升三個交易日後， 12 日回落，恒指低開 55 點後，曾挫 333 點一度低見 26,932 點，其後跌幅收窄，二萬七關失而復得，全日收報 27,032 點，跌 233 點 或 0.9%；國指跌 93 點或 1%，收報 9,175 點；恒生科指跌 91 點或 1.7%，收報 5,408 點。大市全日成交總額 2,387.05 億元。 人民幣兌美元中間價按日下調 19 點，報 6.9457 兌一美元。人民銀行 12 日在公 開市場開展 1,665 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率持平於 1.4%；開展 4,000 億元 14 天期逆回購操作。有 1,185 億元逆回購到期，單日淨投放 4,480 億 元。A 股三大指數表現向好，滬指反覆靠穩，創板反彈超過 1%。滬綜指全日升 2 點或 0.05%，報 4,134 點，成交 8,980 億元。深成指全日升 122 點或 0.9%，報 14,283 點，成交 1.24 萬億元。創板指數全日升 43 點或 1.3%，報 3,328 點，成交 6, ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip ETF Huatai Fu (516920), which opened down by 0.95% at 1.143 yuan on February 13 [1] - The major holdings of the Chip ETF include companies such as Cambricon, which opened down by 1.12%, and SMIC, which fell by 0.30% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Chip Industry Index return rate, managed by Huatai Fu Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 15.53% since its establishment on July 27, 2021, and a recent one-month return of -0.33% [1] Group 2 - The article lists the performance of various stocks within the ETF, including Haiguang Information down by 0.89%, Northern Huachuang up by 1.00%, and Ziguang Guowei down by 0.83% [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of cautious investment due to market risks, although it does not provide specific investment advice [1]

Group 1: Target Price Increases - Semiconductor company SMIC (中芯国际) has a target price increase of 45.82%, with a new target price of 170.00 CNY [2][3] - Chemical pharmaceutical company Kelun Pharmaceutical (科伦药业) has a target price increase of 42.98%, with a new target price of 45.41 CNY [2][3] - Professional engineering company Yaxing Integration (亚翔集成) has a target price increase of 34.30%, with a new target price of 189.20 CNY [2][3] Group 2: Broker Recommendations - A total of 20 listed companies received broker recommendations on February 12, with Top Group (拓普集团) and China Duty Free Group (中国中免) each receiving recommendations from 2 brokers [4] - Wanhua Chemical (皖维高新) received a "Recommended" rating from Guolian Minsheng Securities [5][7] - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) received a "Buy" rating from Kaiyuan Securities [5][7] - Weilon Co., Ltd. (伟隆股份) received an "Increase" rating from Dongwu Securities [5][7] - AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (中航西飞) received an "Outperform" rating from Guoxin Securities [5][7] - Giant Star Technology (巨星科技) received an "Increase" rating from Western Securities [5][7] Group 3: First Coverage - On February 12, brokers provided 7 instances of first coverage, indicating a growing interest in various companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor design sector in the STAR Market is experiencing significant growth, with key stocks showing strong performance and an increase in ETF investments, driven by rising demand and pricing in the memory and storage markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The STAR Market Chip Design Theme Index (950162) rose by 1.10% as of February 13, 2026, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Shengke Communication (+10.18%) and Jiewate (+6.45%) [1]. - The E Fund STAR Chip Design ETF (589030) increased by 0.94%, with a recent price of 1.07 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 6.74% over the past week [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 2.01% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 9.3767 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Growth and Inflows - The E Fund STAR Chip Design ETF has seen a significant increase in scale, growing by 1.7171 million yuan over the past two weeks, ranking second among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF's share count increased by 14.1 million in the past month, also ranking second among comparable funds [1]. - Over the last ten trading days, the ETF attracted a total of 10.7451 million yuan in inflows [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - According to TrendForce, DRAM contract prices have risen by over 40% in Q4 2025, with further increases expected in Q1 2026, particularly in the DDR4 market due to supply-demand imbalances [2]. - Wanlian Securities highlights the ongoing AI wave driving demand for key hardware components, suggesting that storage and PCB sectors are in an expansion cycle, with potential growth in AI consumer electronics [2]. - The E Fund STAR Chip Design ETF has achieved an 80.00% weekly profit percentage and a 77.78% monthly profit probability since its inception [2]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Index Composition - The management fee for the E Fund STAR Chip Design ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [3]. - The STAR Market Chip Design Theme Index primarily includes companies involved in chip design, with digital chip design accounting for 76.8% of the index weight, benefiting from industry uptrends [3]. - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 58.7% of the total index, including companies like Lanqi Technology and Haiguang Information [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) Key Points Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant demand increase driven by AI trends, supply chain restructuring opportunities, and a "local production for local consumption" model [1][1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, SMIC's operating profit exceeded expectations, with the company adding 49,000 12-inch wafer capacity per month for the entire year [1][1]. - The company maintained a high capacity utilization rate, primarily due to rising demand from AI applications and domestic customer needs [1][1]. Growth Outlook - For 2026, SMIC's growth is expected to rely on increased domestic customer demand, ongoing capacity expansion, and product structure optimization [1][1]. - High-margin products, such as storage and BCD process-related products, are anticipated to see demand growth surpassing that of traditional products [1][1]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on SMIC, optimistic about its capacity expansion and advanced technology migration prospects [1][1]. Capital Expenditure - In Q4 2025, SMIC's capital expenditure reached $2.4 billion, a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter, with an annual capital expenditure of $8.1 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase [2][2]. - The increase in capital expenditure was attributed to strong terminal demand and early equipment deliveries [2][2]. - Goldman Sachs projects a further 11% increase in capital expenditure for 2026, reaching $9 billion, driven by new demand from AI applications [2][2]. Revenue Growth - Revenue growth in 2026 is expected to be primarily driven by AI and domestic demand [3][3]. - Despite rising storage costs leading to reduced orders from smartphone and consumer electronics clients, growth in AI and mid-to-high-end product orders is expected to offset this impact [3][3]. - The management anticipates that domestic fabless companies will continue to increase market share in various sectors, including analog, display drivers, CIS, storage, and MCU [3][3]. - The target for Q1 2026 capacity utilization is to maintain the Q4 2025 level of 95.7%, with Goldman Sachs believing this target is achievable given solid demand support [3][3]. Profit Adjustments - Following Q4 2025 performance and Q1 2026 guidance, Goldman Sachs has lowered its net profit expectations for 2026-2029 by 10%-14%, primarily due to adjustments in non-operating components [4][4]. - Although Q4 2025 operating profit exceeded expectations, net profit fell short due to higher-than-expected interest expenses and tax rates [4][4]. - Goldman Sachs has adopted a more cautious stance on non-operating components, particularly regarding interest rate assumptions, leading to the downward revision of net profit expectations [4][4].

Summary of Conference Call on SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points Capacity Expansion - In Q4 2025, SMIC's operating profit exceeded expectations, with the company adding 49,000 12-inch wafers per month for the entire year of 2025, while maintaining a high capacity utilization rate. This growth is attributed to the rising demand driven by AI trends, supply chain restructuring opportunities, and the "local production for local consumption" model [1] - For 2025, capital expenditures reached $2.4 billion, a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter, and $8.1 billion for the year, an 11% increase year-over-year, surpassing management's previous expectations of flat growth. This increase is primarily due to strong end-user demand and early equipment deliveries [2] - High demand for AI-related products, including domestic GPUs, data center power semiconductors, and edge AI device chips, is expected to drive capital expenditures to $9 billion in 2026, an 11% year-over-year increase [2] Revenue Growth - Revenue growth in 2026 will be primarily driven by AI and domestic demand. Despite rising storage costs leading to reduced orders from smartphone and consumer electronics clients, growth in AI and mid-to-high-end product orders is expected to offset this impact. Key areas of demand growth include storage-related semiconductors, data center connectivity (optical/electrical), and BCD process power semiconductors [3] - Management anticipates that domestic fabless companies will continue to gain market share in areas such as analog, source information, display drivers, CIS, storage, and MCUs. The target for Q1 2026 is to maintain capacity utilization at the Q4 2025 level of 95.7%, which is deemed achievable under solid demand support [3] Profitability Adjustments - Following the Q4 2025 performance and Q1 2026 guidance, net profit expectations for 2026-2029 have been revised down by 10%-14%, primarily due to adjustments in non-operating components. Revenue, gross margin, and operating profit expectations remain largely unchanged [4] - Although Q4 2025 operating profit exceeded expectations, net profit fell short due to higher-than-expected interest expenses and tax rates. Goldman Sachs has adopted a more cautious stance on non-operating components, particularly regarding interest rate assumptions, leading to the downward revision of net profit expectations [4]

Summary of Conference Call on SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the semiconductor industry, specifically the performance and outlook of two major companies: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) and Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited. Key Points on SMIC 1. **4Q25 Financial Performance**: - Revenue reached **US$2.49 billion**, a **4.5% QoQ increase** supported by higher wafer shipments and improved product mix. Gross margin was **19.2%** with utilization at **95.7%** [2][14] 2. **1Q26 Guidance**: - SMIC expects flat revenue QoQ with a gross margin of **18-20%**. The company anticipates continued high utilization and similar capital expenditures in 2026 compared to 2025 [1][3] 3. **Challenges Ahead**: - Management indicated that 2026 will be challenging due to rising depreciation costs, projected to increase by **~30% YoY**. Despite short-term weaknesses in smartphone demand, medium-term demand driven by AI remains positive [3][11] 4. **Domestic Market Focus**: - Approximately **85%** of SMIC's revenue comes from China-based customers, with domestic revenue growing **18% YoY**. The company is benefiting from localization trends in various product segments [2][3] 5. **Target Price Adjustment**: - Target price raised to **HK$75** from **HK$53**, reflecting the company's leadership in advanced nodes and solid domestic demand [1][17] Key Points on Hua Hong 1. **4Q25 Financial Performance**: - Revenue was **US$659.9 million**, a **22.4% YoY increase** and **3.9% QoQ increase**, with a gross margin of **13%**. Utilization was exceptionally high at **103.8%** [9][22] 2. **1Q26 Guidance**: - Revenue is expected to be between **US$650-660 million** with a gross margin of **13-15%**. The company is progressing with capacity expansion, particularly in its 12-inch line [9][22] 3. **Demand Drivers**: - Demand is supported by AI-related applications and recovering consumer electronics, with over **80%** of revenue coming from China. Key growth areas include MCU, memory, and power management products [10][12] 4. **Target Price Adjustment**: - Target price increased to **HK$115** from **HK$105**, based on strong order momentum in discrete devices and power management, driven by AI hardware expansion [1][21] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: Both companies are navigating a challenging environment with margin pressures due to rising costs and competitive dynamics. However, they are optimistic about the long-term growth potential driven by AI and domestic demand [1][3][12] - **Investment Ratings**: - Hua Hong is rated as a **Buy** due to its strong growth prospects, while SMIC is rated **Neutral** due to ongoing challenges and high depreciation costs [13][49] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in China, is experiencing a mix of challenges and opportunities. Both SMIC and Hua Hong are positioned to benefit from domestic demand and AI-driven growth, although they face margin pressures and competitive dynamics.

Industry Overview - The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Artificial Intelligence + Advanced Manufacturing Action Plan (2026-2027)", aiming to promote the application of AI technology in key areas of the semiconductor industry, enhancing efficiency in chip design and software coding [1] - The plan focuses on developing high-performance, energy-efficient SoC chips for various AI terminal demands, including AI smartphones and intelligent robots, and supports the domestic replacement of automotive-grade AI chips for the new energy vehicle market [1] Company Updates - SMIC announced that its memory and BCD products are in high demand, leading to price increases [2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported a record high sales revenue of $659.9 million in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9%. The gross margin was 13.0%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company expects Q1 2026 sales revenue to be between $650 million and $660 million, with a gross margin of 13% to 15% [2] - Aerospace Zhizhuang stated that it has provided chips for the GW-A2 constellation but is unclear about the specific launch mission's usage. The company cannot estimate the impact of the launch on its Q1 2026 operations [2] - Debon Securities noted that the semiconductor upstream sector showed overall growth in 2025, with semiconductor equipment performing better than materials and components, and packaging and testing outperforming wafer foundry [2] Related ETFs - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (60%) and materials (25%) [3] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (Hua Xia, 562590) also emphasizes semiconductor equipment (63%) and materials (24%), benefiting from the demand surge driven by the AI revolution and advancements in lithography technology [3]