半导体ETF南方（159325）业绩比较基准为中证半导体行业精选指数收益率，管理人为南方基金管理股 份有限公司，基金经理为赵卓雄、何典鸿，成立（2024-10-31）以来回报为49.44%，近一个月回报为 5.54%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 1月5日，半导体ETF南方（159325）开盘涨1.00%，报1.509元。半导体ETF南方（159325）重仓股方 面，中芯国际开盘涨3.26%，寒武纪涨1.43%，海光信息涨1.38%，北方华创涨1.94%，澜起科技涨 1.44%，兆易创新涨3.30%，中微公司涨1.94%，豪威集团涨0.37%，长电科技涨1.14%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 ...

近期国内半导体行业重磅重组并购方案密集出炉，行业整合节奏显著加快。2025年12月30日，中芯国际 发布公告，拟通过发行股份方式，收购国家集成电路产业投资基金等5家机构合计持有的中芯北方49% 股权，交易总价达406.01亿元。 次日，两家半导体企业同步披露并购计划。其中，停牌10个工作日后的中微公司公告称，拟采用发行股 份及支付现金相结合的方式，收购杭州众芯硅等41名交易对方合计持有的杭州众硅64.69%股权，同时 拟向不超过35名特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金；华虹半导体则同步公告，计划通过发行股份收购华 虹集团等4名交易对方持有的华力微97.4988%股权，同样拟向不超过35名符合条件的特定对象发行股票 募集配套资金。 这一系列密集落地的并购动作，既彰显了头部企业强化产业链布局、提升核心竞争力的战略意图，更标 志着国内半导体行业重组并购浪潮全面来袭。 半导体行业并购活跃度走高，核心驱动力源于行业景气度持续回暖、企业盈利能力显著提升，以及复杂 国际环境下强化本土产业链韧性的迫切需求。从"点"上的技术突破到"链"上的协同发展，这一系列资本 运作背后，是在人工智能（AI）等多因素推动下，行业正通过资源整合寻求 ...

Group 1: Capital Market Insights - Global markets showed overall recovery during the New Year holiday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising 2.7%, marking the strongest start in over a decade [2] - The Chinese yuan continues to appreciate, breaking the 7 mark, benefiting Chinese assets due to a weaker dollar and stable economic fundamentals [2] - Major brokerages remain optimistic about the A-share market, predicting a sustained bull market into 2026 [2] - A total of 71 new funds are scheduled for issuance in January, with 44 launching in the first trading week [2] Group 2: Industry Highlights - AI sector sees renewed attention with DeepSeek introducing a new AI model architecture that significantly reduces computing power requirements while enhancing efficiency [4] - The low-altitude economy is set to grow, with Shanghai aiming for a core industry scale of approximately 80 billion yuan by 2028 [4] - The film industry is projected to reach a box office of 51.83 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.95% [4] - The real estate market in Beijing has seen increased viewing and transaction volumes since the implementation of new policies, with daily new home sales rising significantly [4] Group 3: Company Developments - Baidu plans to spin off Kunlun Chip for an IPO, with Goldman Sachs estimating its valuation at up to $16.5 billion, leading to a 10% surge in Baidu's Hong Kong shares [6] - BYD's electric vehicle sales have surpassed Tesla for the first time, with BYD selling 2.25 million units, a 28% increase year-on-year, while Tesla's deliveries are projected to decline by 8.6% to 1.64 million units in 2025 [6] - Ningde Times has repurchased 15.99 million shares for a total of 4.386 billion yuan [7] - DreamNet Technology has partnered with Shenzhou Liuhe to develop heavy-duty drone products [7]

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant growth, with chip design, semiconductor equipment, and materials projected to rise by 62.38%, 60.86%, and 37.31% respectively by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor theme index, focusing on the aforementioned three sectors, is anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 62.33% in 2025, with the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) experiencing a net inflow of over 220 million yuan in the last five trading days [2] - The demand for semiconductor equipment is driven by advancements in AI and domestic substitution, particularly in the storage chip sector, which is reshaping the global pricing cycle [4][5] Group 2 - The storage chip segment accounts for approximately 30% of the integrated circuit market, making it a significant area for semiconductor equipment demand [5] - The global storage industry is entering a new upcycle, with DRAM and NAND prices rising since September 2024, and this trend is expected to continue through 2026 [5] - The shift towards 3D architecture in DRAM and NAND is projected to increase the service market for related equipment by approximately 1.7 times and 1.8 times respectively [6] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, which has a high concentration of leading companies in the semiconductor supply chain, with the top five companies accounting for over 50% of the index [6][8] - The CSI semiconductor index has shown a maximum increase of over 570% since the last upcycle, with a notable 63.92% increase in 2025, outperforming other semiconductor indices [7][8] - The high concentration of equipment, materials, and design sectors in the CSI semiconductor index indicates a strong potential for domestic substitution and ongoing market and policy support [8]

A-Share Market - As of December 30, 2025, over 2,800 A-share listed companies have received broker research, indicating that more than half of the market's listed companies have attracted broker attention. The most focused sectors include machinery, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, with over 290 companies in each sector receiving broker research [2] - On December 29, Ganfeng Lithium announced it received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding prosecution for suspected insider trading, with the case now transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution. The company had previously received an administrative penalty from the Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau in July 2024 and has complied with disclosure obligations and paid fines [2] - Minmetals Development announced on December 29 that it received a notice from its actual controller, China Minmetals, regarding a planned major asset restructuring. The company intends to acquire equity stakes in Minmetals Mining and Luzhong Mining from its controlling shareholder through asset swaps, share issuance, and cash payments, while also raising matching funds [2] - On December 29, Huali Co., a leader in decorative composite materials, disclosed the termination of its intention to acquire a 51% stake in Beijing Zhongke Huilian Technology Co., due to failure to reach consensus on core transaction terms [3] - On December 22, Beijing Haizhi Technology Group submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time, having previously let its application expire in June 2025. The company reported net losses of 176 million, 266 million, 93.73 million, and 128 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, primarily due to high upfront investments in upgrading products and technology [3] - On December 29, SMIC announced plans to issue 547 million shares to acquire a 49% stake in SMIC North from five shareholders, with a transaction price of 40.601 billion yuan [3] - As of December 28, 19 A-share companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong capital market this year, a significant increase of 533% compared to 3 companies in 2024, accounting for over 50% of the total fundraising for new shares in Hong Kong [4] Financial Management - On January 5, 2026, new local government special bonds and replacement bonds will be issued, with Shandong Province planning to issue its first batch of 24.609 billion yuan in bonds, including 24.609 billion yuan for replacing existing hidden debts [5] - As of September 2025, China's banking sector had foreign financial assets of 1.8114 trillion USD and foreign liabilities of 1.4399 trillion USD, resulting in a net foreign asset of 371.6 billion USD, with net liabilities in RMB of 224.9 billion USD and net assets in foreign currency of 596.5 billion USD [5] - As of the end of November, there were 165 public fund management institutions in China, with a total net asset value of public funds amounting to 37.02 trillion yuan, a slight increase of approximately 60 billion yuan from the end of October [5] - As of December 28, the issuance of FOF (fund of funds) products surged to 83.828 billion units, marking a historical high, with both the number and scale of products reaching new records as more investors shift their funds into these products [5]

来源：市场资讯 来源：晨明的策略深度思考 本文作者：刘晨明/余可骋 报告摘要 日积跬步：（1）本轮港股资产上涨具备基本面支撑，由于较A股更少的传统经济板块，自2024年下半 年开始，在内外需共同企稳、宏观政策发力托底的背景下，港股盈利已经出现结构性修复迹象，只是阶 段性被外卖补贴战打破。（2）中美战略性关键科技领域中，绝大部分核心公司在港股有上市。高端制 造业、科技的成长正从"单点突破"迈向"多点爆破"。映射至资本市场，港股正从传统的顺经济周期，逐 步转向AI应用、新能源、半导体等代表硬科技的主赛道。恒指新经济相关的权重从17%提升至接近 50%。（3）随着外卖补贴战退坡以及AI驱动的广告及云服务成为新的增长点，恒指2026年业绩增速有 望回升至10.8%，港股上涨可能从流动性驱动转向盈利和流动性共同驱动。 水涨船高：一是港股汇聚的优质企业如停泊其中的巨轮，估值相对较低，坚实的船体（全球竞争力）与 满载的货物（成长潜力）在低水位下尤为突出，二是目前压制港股的主要是流动性/情绪因素（日本息 交易平仓、美联储鹰派降息表述、互联网高新技术税传言、基石投资者解禁、IPO抽水、公募新规 等），市场情绪可能已经调整到位， ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 2026年欧股开门红，美股反弹艰难，芯片股力撑但特斯拉拖累。 周五，泛欧股指收创历史新高，ASML涨7%。三大美股指仅纳指未收涨、盘中曾齐跌。特斯拉收跌2.6%，软件股抵消多数芯片股涨势，Salesforce跌超 4%；英伟达涨超1%，三星劲敌美光涨10%。白宫推迟对部分家庭用品征关税后，家庭用品零售商RH涨近8%。 中概指数周五涨超4%，百度大涨15%，阿里涨超6%。离岸人民币低开高走，盘中涨超百点、逾两年半来首次涨破6.97。 外交部发言人就美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇答记者问。中方呼吁美方确保马杜罗总统夫妇人身安全，立即释放马杜罗总统和夫人，停 止颠覆委内瑞拉政权，通过对话谈判解决问题。 俄罗斯强烈敦促美国释放马杜罗。 伊朗最高领袖: 应与抗议者进行对话，但骚乱行径必须得到制止。特朗普威胁"干涉伊朗骚乱"，伊朗高官回应：美国干涉伊朗内部事务将"破坏整 个地区稳定"。 商品基准指数"重置"在即，面临抛售风险，金银开年"冲高回落"。 宇树科技澄清：我司未涉及申请"绿色通道"相关事宜，上市工作正常推进。 雷军260分钟"拆 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026 年电子行业十大预测 20260104 Q&A 2026 年电子行业的十大预测中,云端算力板块有哪些重要趋势和变化? 2026年,云端算力板块尤其是国产算力将迎来显著发展。首先,从产能角度来 看,预计到 2026年底,包括国内头部晶圆厂在内的 N2 制程将释放充沛的产能, 为国内 GPU 厂商提供足够的供给。这意味着产能瓶颈不再是国产算力发展的核心 问题。 从需求端来看,无论是字节跳动等龙头公司的投放消耗,还是国产算力 原厂商的客单价情况,都显示出强劲增长。例如,在2025年 5月,字节跳动单 日数据消耗约为 15-16 万亿,到 9 月底已达到 30 万亿,并在 12 月初超过 50 万 k 调研纪号 争 狗 - 国产 GPU 产能释放,不再是算力瓶颈,字节跳动等龙头企业数据消耗量激 . 增,预示国产算力需求端强劲增长,2026年中或突破百万亿级别,为国 产算力公司业绩兑现奠定基础。 寒武纪和海光等龙头 GPT 公司在产能供给和地方政府招标中占据优势,同 ● 时,推理芯片需求增加,ASIC 芯片有望与 GPU 并驾齐驱,新元股份和翱 捷等公司 ...

Key Points - The U.S. military operation in Venezuela resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, with the U.S. planning to take control of Venezuela's oil industry [2] - The Hong Kong stock market opened strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 4% [3] - The public fund fee reduction reform has been fully implemented, expected to save investors 51 billion yuan annually, with a 20% decrease in comprehensive fund fee rates [4] - Warren Buffett officially retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, continuing as chairman while retaining a significant stake [5] - The National Integrated Circuit Fund increased its stake in SMIC from 4.79% to 9.25% [6] - Baidu plans to spin off its Kunlun Chip business and apply for an IPO in Hong Kong [7] - Tesla reported 1.6361 million vehicle deliveries in 2025, losing the title of the world's top electric vehicle seller to BYD, which sold 2.2567 million vehicles, a 27.86% increase from 2024 [8] - Shanghai aims to develop a low-altitude economy, targeting an industry scale of 80 billion yuan by 2028 [9] - Moutai launched the "i Moutai" channel, with significant sales during the New Year holiday [10] - The State Grid's development plan aims for a new grid platform by 2030, enhancing renewable energy integration and supporting a significant increase in power transmission capacity [11] Brokerage Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted a structural bull market in 2025, driven by a reassessment of China's tech capabilities and external demand resilience, predicting a higher likelihood of market gains in 2026 [12] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted a favorable window for risk appetite, with potential catalysts from upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [13] - Guojin Securities pointed out that market dynamics are changing, with a focus on fundamental signals and a recommendation for industrial resources and equipment exports [14][15] - Hua'an Securities emphasized the importance of macro policies and the AI industry as key investment themes for the upcoming spring market [16] - CITIC Construction Investment expressed optimism for the cross-year market, focusing on sectors like semiconductors and AI [17] - Cinda Securities suggested a gradual start to the spring market, with a need for economic data to support further index gains [18] - Everbright Securities advised patience regarding the spring market, noting historical patterns in January's performance [19] - Guotai Haitong highlighted the potential for a stable market environment due to favorable liquidity conditions and policy support [20] - Zhongtai Securities recommended cautious optimism for the tech sector, focusing on specific sub-sectors like robotics and commercial aerospace [21] - Galaxy Securities summarized the holiday events and projected a continuation of structural market trends into 2026 [22][23]

Key Points - The article summarizes significant events during the New Year holiday and the latest assessments from major brokerage firms regarding market trends and investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Major Events - The U.S. military operation led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, with implications for U.S. involvement in Venezuela's oil industry [3] - Hong Kong's stock market opened strongly on January 2, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 4% [4] - The public fund fee reduction reform has been fully implemented, expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a 20% decrease in comprehensive fund fee rates [5] - Warren Buffett officially retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, continuing as chairman [7] - The National Integrated Circuit Fund increased its stake in SMIC from 4.79% to 9.25% [8] - Baidu plans to spin off its Kunlun chip business and apply for an IPO in Hong Kong [9] - Tesla lost its title as the world's top electric vehicle seller, delivering 1.636 million vehicles in 2025, while BYD sold 2.257 million vehicles, a 27.86% increase from 2024 [10] - Shanghai aims to become a global hub for eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft, targeting an industry scale of 80 billion yuan by 2028 [11] - Moutai launched its products on the iMoutai platform, with significant sales during the holiday period [12] - New guidelines for high-quality development of the power grid were released, aiming for a new grid platform by 2030 [13] Group 2: Brokerage Insights - CITIC Securities noted that 2025 was a strong year for market performance, driven by a reassessment of China's technological capabilities and external demand resilience, with a focus on balancing external and internal demand in 2026 [14] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlighted a favorable window for risk appetite, with potential catalysts from upcoming events such as the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [15] - Guojin Securities pointed out that the market's internal driving logic is changing, with a focus on fundamental signals and lower volatility assets [16] - Hua'an Securities emphasized the importance of macro policies and the AI industry as key investment themes for January [17] - CITIC Jiantou expressed optimism for the cross-year market, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, AI, and new energy [18] - Cinda Securities suggested a gradual start to the spring market, with a need for economic data to support further index breakthroughs [19] - Everbright Securities advised patience regarding the spring market, noting historical patterns of index performance [21] - Guotai Haitong forecasted a stable market environment supported by favorable liquidity and policy measures [22] - Zhongtai Securities recommended cautious optimism for the technology sector, focusing on specific sub-sectors with strong fundamentals [23] - Galaxy Securities indicated that the holiday period's positive market sentiment could lead to an early spring rally, while remaining cautious of geopolitical risks [24]