文/杨元庆 联想集团董事长兼 CEO 春山可望，万象更新。2026年的初春，农历丙午新年的脚步日益临近，神州大地洋溢着迎新的喜 庆。置身于"十五五"开局之年，我们心潮澎湃，信心满怀。 回望刚刚收官的"十四五"，中国经济彰显出难能可贵的高质量发展确定性，持续成为世界经 济增长的主要贡献者和稳定锚，不仅顶压前行，保持了年均5 . 4%的增长速度，继续领跑全球 主要经济体，更是稳中有进，经济总量实现"四连跳"，突破1 4 0万亿元大关，展现出"向新向 优发展"的活力。 当前，面对2 0 3 5年基本实现社会主义现代化的发展目标，要确保"十五五"和"十六五"时期经 济保持4 . 1 7%以上的年均合理增速，我们必须在高质量发展的轨道上充分挖掘经济潜能。 在这一宏大背景下，一个极具战略深意的概念——"中国人经济"正成为官方与学界热议的焦 点 。 与 重 视 国 内 生 产 总 值 （ GDP ） 的 " 中 国 经 济 " 相 比 ， " 中 国 人 经 济 " 关 注 的 是 国 民 总 收 入 （GNI），即中国人及企业在全球所创造的财富。进入"十五五"时期，中国式现代化道路要求 我国既重视"中国经济"也重视"中国 ...

Investment Rating - The technology hardware and equipment industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The technology hardware and equipment industry is experiencing a slow recovery driven by inventory replenishment cycles and AI technology, despite overall pressure from weak global economic growth since 2025. There is significant differentiation among sub-industries, with strong demand for data center equipment driven by computing power, while traditional telecom equipment shows sluggish growth [2][3] - The Chinese government has established a policy framework to support the industry, focusing on short-term growth stabilization, medium-term supply chain strengthening, and long-term innovation promotion, primarily through domestic substitution to overcome high-end equipment and material bottlenecks [2] - The industry is expected to benefit from the deepening of digital China initiatives and the industrialization of cutting-edge technologies like AI, entering a structurally growth-driven cycle. However, geopolitical disturbances and rapid technological iterations may lead to uneven recovery across the industry [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic information manufacturing industry is closely tied to global economic conditions, showing signs of recovery since 2024 due to inventory replenishment and AI-driven demand. It is a core industry in China's economic structure transformation and upgrade [7][8] - In 2024, the added value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry grew by 11.8%, outperforming overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing growth rates [8] Financial Performance - Sample companies in the technology hardware and equipment industry reported positive revenue growth year-on-year in 2025, aligning with industry recovery trends. However, high R&D investments and asset impairment losses have pressured net profits, while EBITDA showed year-on-year growth, indicating profit resilience [3] - The debt scale and liability ratios of sample companies have increased, with a decline in the EBITDA coverage ratio for rigid debt, although interest coverage has improved due to lower financing costs [3] Sub-Industry Insights Communication Equipment - The communication equipment sector is experiencing growth opportunities driven by AI and industrial interconnectivity, with significant demand for data center equipment but slow growth in traditional telecom network equipment. The market is highly competitive and concentrated [24][27] - The deployment of high-speed optical modules and data center switches is expected to grow significantly, while traditional telecom equipment investments are declining as operators shift focus to computing power networks [28] Computers and Peripheral Devices - The global PC and server markets are stable, with Chinese manufacturers gaining market share due to domestic substitution. The AI PC segment is becoming a core growth driver, with AI PC shipments expected to increase significantly [37][38] - The global server market is experiencing robust growth driven by AI computing demand, with significant revenue increases expected in the coming years [42] Electronic Devices, Instruments, and Components - The electronic devices, instruments, and components sector is seeing overall recovery driven by AI innovation and domestic supply chain localization. Key areas of growth include computing power chips and advanced packaging [48][49] - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward trend, with significant sales growth expected in both global and Chinese markets [56]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "Chinese People Economy" is gaining attention as a strategic focus, emphasizing the importance of Gross National Income (GNI) over Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the context of China's modernization goals for 2035 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - China's economy has demonstrated remarkable high-quality growth, maintaining an average growth rate of 5.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the total economic output surpassing 140 trillion yuan [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to ensure an average annual growth rate of over 4.17% while fully tapping into economic potential [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance of "Chinese People Economy" - The "Chinese People Economy" encourages enterprises to leverage domestic innovation and manufacturing capabilities to expand globally, enhancing control over global resources and markets [2][3] - This approach creates a virtuous cycle where the development of the "Chinese People Economy" can feed back into the domestic economy, promoting mutual growth [2] Group 3: Characteristics of Global Competitiveness - To foster the "Chinese People Economy," it is essential to cultivate globally competitive Chinese enterprises that possess resource allocation, technological innovation, and brand influence capabilities [3] - Companies should retain core capabilities in China, leveraging its unmatched industrial advantages and comprehensive supply chain systems [3][4] Group 4: Lenovo's Globalization Practices - Lenovo's journey exemplifies the integration of "Chinese Economy" and "Chinese People Economy," having grown into a global technology giant with over 500 billion yuan in annual revenue and operations in 180 markets [6][7] - Lenovo maintains approximately 80% of its manufacturing, 70% of its R&D personnel, and 60% of its workforce in China, emphasizing the importance of China as a base for global operations [7] Group 5: Future Strategies for "Chinese People Economy" - Lenovo plans to enhance its "China + N" strategy, optimizing supply chain layouts and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in their global expansion [9] - The company aims to expand into emerging markets, particularly in the "Global South," with significant investments in regions like the Middle East [10] - Innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence, is identified as a core driver for the "Chinese People Economy," with Lenovo committed to making AI accessible globally [11]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，维持联想集团(00992)"与大市同步"评级，目标价9.8港元，认为联想是最能够 缓解内存价格上升风险的公司。 虽然服务器数据尚未公布，但该行调查显示期内整体服务器需求强劲，因此将基础设施方案业务(ISG) 的收入预测上调至约50亿美元，相当于同比及按季增长27%及22%，较市场预期高8%。该行预期联想第 三财季收入约218亿美元，同比及按季增长16%及7%，较市场预期高5%；非香港财务报告准则经调整净 利润约为5.22亿美元，较市场预期高11%。 联想集团去年12月底止第三财季桌上型电脑出货量同比及按季分别升29%和11%，至450万台，较该行 及市场预期高约三成。手提电脑出货量约1,430万台，大致符合该行及市场预期。智能手机出货量表现 强劲，同比及按季分别升9%及4%至1,680万台，较该行及市场预期高9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating for Lenovo Group (00992) with a target price of HKD 9.8, indicating that Lenovo is well-positioned to mitigate the risks associated with rising memory prices [1] Group 1: Performance Metrics - For the third fiscal quarter ending December, Lenovo's desktop computer shipments increased by 29% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 4.5 million units, which is approximately 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's and market expectations [1] - Laptop shipments totaled approximately 14.3 million units, aligning closely with Morgan Stanley's and market expectations [1] - Smartphone shipments showed strong performance, rising by 9% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to 16.8 million units, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 9% [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Although server data has not yet been released, strong overall server demand was indicated in Morgan Stanley's survey, leading to an upward revision of the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) revenue forecast to approximately USD 5 billion, reflecting year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 27% and 22%, respectively, and exceeding market expectations by 8% [1] - The anticipated revenue for Lenovo in the third fiscal quarter is approximately USD 21.8 billion, representing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 16% and 7%, respectively, and surpassing market expectations by 5% [1] - Adjusted net profit under non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards is projected to be approximately USD 522 million, exceeding market expectations by 11% [1]

天眼查工商信息显示，近日，联想智联(凌源)智慧科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为刘峤，注册资本 2000万人民币，经营范围含工业互联网数据服务、软件外包服务、网络技术服务、物联网技术服务、人 工智能公共服务平台技术咨询服务、信息咨询服务、数字技术服务、云计算装备技术服务、信息技术咨 询服务等。股东信息显示，该公司由联想旗下广西联想智联信息科技有限公司全资持股。 ...

Group 1 - The current Hong Kong stock market is in a phase of oscillation and correction, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping from a peak of around 6000 points in mid-January to 5346.2 points by February 6, marking a weekly decline of 6.51%, the largest in recent weeks [1] - The adjustment within the sector shows significant differentiation, with semiconductor and internet leaders experiencing larger declines, while new energy vehicles and home appliances showed relative resilience, indicating that funds are concentrating on quality core assets rather than exiting the market entirely [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions represent a "golden layout window" for investors, characterized by oversold valuations, counter-cyclical capital inflows, and improving fundamentals [1][10] Group 2 - Southbound capital has shown a "buy the dip" behavior, with a net inflow of 560.7 billion HKD in the week of February 6, the highest weekly net inflow in three months, indicating strong confidence from domestic investors in the Hong Kong technology sector [2] - The concentration of capital flows has increased, with technology ETFs becoming key tools for domestic investors, reflecting a shift from traditional high-dividend sectors to technology growth sectors [2][3] - The report notes that the Hang Seng Technology Index's PE (TTM) is at 22.1 times, significantly below its historical average of 32.1 times and the global comparable technology indices, highlighting a valuation discount of over 35% [4] Group 3 - The report identifies four solid support dimensions for the Hang Seng Technology Index: technical, valuation, capital, and fundamental aspects, which collectively create a "margin of safety" for the sector [3] - The technical indicators show that the index is severely oversold, with a strong support level around 5400 points, which has not been effectively breached despite recent declines [3][4] - The fundamental outlook is bolstered by the sector's deep integration with the AI wave, with over 70% of the index's components related to AI, indicating strong growth potential as the industry transitions from R&D to commercialization [6][7] Group 4 - The report attributes the recent decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index to short-term emotional disturbances rather than a reversal of fundamental trends, driven by external tightening expectations, internal profit-taking, and unfounded rumors [7][8] - It emphasizes that the current market downturn is a valuable opportunity for investors to acquire quality assets, as the emotional "panic low" often represents a "golden buying point" [9][10] - The report suggests a strategy of "buying in batches and holding long-term," focusing on core stocks that are rapidly commercializing AI applications and have stable cash flows [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The global storage chip industry is experiencing an unprecedented "super cycle" driven by the explosive demand for AI infrastructure, leading to significant price increases in core categories such as DRAM, NAND, and HBM. This situation has made the profitability of end-device and infrastructure manufacturers a focal point for capital markets [1]. Group 1: Lenovo's Financial Performance - Lenovo Group is set to release its Q3 financial report for the fiscal year 2025/26, which is considered a critical indicator of how well end-device manufacturers can withstand cost pressures amid soaring global storage chip prices [1]. - Bloomberg forecasts Lenovo's Q3 revenue to reach approximately $20.76 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 10.4% from $18.8 billion [1]. - Despite achieving an adjusted net profit of $512 million in Q2 (a 25% year-on-year increase), analysts have lowered the average net profit expectation for Q3 to about $463 million due to significant fluctuations in storage chip costs [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Strategy - Lenovo's unique supply chain strategy has garnered significant market attention, as the company has strategically accumulated storage chips, with inventory levels approximately 50% higher than normal, potentially supporting production until the end of 2026 [3]. - The operational profit margin for Lenovo's Intelligent Devices Group (IDG), which includes personal computers and related businesses, was reported at 7.3% in Q2, and the market is keenly observing whether this performance can be sustained in Q3 [2]. - IDC has warned that hardware inflation caused by storage shortages could lead to a decline in global PC shipments by as much as 8.9% in 2026, highlighting the potential risks in the market [3].

国家知识产权局信息显示，联想（北京）有限公司申请一项名为"一种任务检测方法和电子设备"的专 利，公开号CN121478386A，申请日期为2025年11月。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：情报员 专利摘要显示，本申请公开了一种任务检测方法和电子设备，该方法包括：响应于接收到任务命令，通 过智能体执行任务命令指示的目标任务；响应于获得目标任务的执行结果，基于验证信息和该执行结 果，确定关于任务命令的验证结果；其中，验证信息是基于所述任务命令生成的。 天眼查资料显示，联想（北京）有限公司，成立于1992年，位于北京市，是一家以从事计算机、通信和 其他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本565000万港元。通过天眼查大数据分析，联想（北京） 有限公司共对外投资了108家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息1741条，专利信 息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可238个。 ...

Economic Data - The People's Bank of China will release January CPI and PPI on February 11 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will publish the monthly report on January commodity residential sales price index on February 13 [1] - Financial data including January social financing and new RMB loans will also be released next week [1] - In the US, December retail sales month-on-month will be announced on February 10, followed by January unemployment rate and non-farm employment data on February 11 [1] Earnings Reports - The US earnings season continues with several notable companies reporting next week, including BP, Barclays, Marriott, Coca-Cola, and AstraZeneca on February 10 [2] - Other companies such as NetEase, Youdao, and Total will report on February 11, while TripAdvisor and Hyatt will report on February 12 [2] - In Hong Kong, SMIC will report earnings on February 10, followed by Budweiser APAC and NetEase Cloud Music on February 11 [2] New Stock Issuance - One new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be available for subscription on February 9, with Ai De Technology listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange on February 10 [2] - Several new stocks will list in Hong Kong, including Lanke Technology on February 9 and Aixin Yuanzhi on February 10 [2] Stock Unlocking - A total of 33 restricted stocks will be unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 36 billion yuan, led by Hunan YN with 24.096 billion yuan [3][10] Central Bank Operations - The central bank will have 4.055 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3][10] Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance will issue the first phase of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on February 11, with a scale of 14 billion yuan [13]