投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.680 | chumin@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.600/6.570 | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 总股本(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 流通港股(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.01 | | | win11 换机潮如期兑现，利润率稳健体现供应链韧性 win11 换机潮、AI PC 渗透率提升如期兑现，三大业务利润率稳定验证公司供应 链的韧性，我们上调 FY2026-2028 财年 non-gaap 归母净利润至 17.6/20.7/23.6 亿 美元（前次为 16.7/19.6/23.0 亿美元），同比增长 21.8%/ ...

Core Insights - Lenovo Group is stockpiling memory and other critical components to address supply shortages driven by the AI boom [1] - The company's CFO, Zheng Xiaoming, stated that current component inventory is approximately 50% higher than usual [1] - The surge in demand for advanced hardware in AI data centers is increasing costs for consumer electronics manufacturers, but Lenovo sees an opportunity to profit from its inventory advantage [1] Group 1 - Zheng Xiaoming noted that prices are rising at an unprecedented rate due to AI-driven demand [1] - Lenovo has signed long-term contracts and possesses scale advantages, indicating that "whoever controls supply can secure a position in the market" [1] - The company aims to avoid passing increased costs onto customers this quarter to maintain strong sales growth for the year [1] Group 2 - Lenovo plans to achieve a balance between product pricing and supply by 2026 [1] - The company has sufficient memory chips to meet its demand for the entire year of 2026 and is better positioned than competitors to handle any supply shortages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992) due to better-than-expected performance, with revenue and adjusted net profit growing by 14.58% and 25.18% year-on-year respectively, driven by accelerated penetration of AIPC and strong AI server business [1] Performance Overview - For FY25/26 Q2, the company reported revenue of $20.452 billion, up 14.58% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% year-on-year, with net profit significantly exceeding expectations [1] IDG Smart Device Business Group - The PC business performed well, with the IDG segment achieving revenue of $15.107 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.79%. PC revenue was approximately $11.1 billion, growing 17.58% year-on-year, surpassing IDC's reported global PC shipment growth of 10.32% for Q3 [2] - AIPC's global shipment accounted for 33% of total PC shipments, with a 30% share in the domestic market for notebooks, reflecting a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [2] ISG Infrastructure Solutions - The ISG segment reported revenue of $4.087 billion for FY25/26 Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%. AI servers showed double-digit growth, with strong order reserves, and revenue from liquid cooling technology surged by 154% year-on-year [3] Gross Margin and Supply Chain Management - The gross margin for FY25/26 Q2 was 15.39%, up 0.66 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective progress in the AI server business transformation. The company has a robust supply chain and has developed comprehensive strategies to address component price increases [4] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of $79.49 billion, $91.55 billion, and $105.24 billion for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with net profits of $1.67 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.43 billion respectively, supported by its leading position in the PC market and strong growth in AI servers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992), highlighting that the company's performance exceeded expectations with revenue and adjusted net profit growing by 14.58% and 25.18% year-on-year, respectively. The growth is primarily driven by the accelerated penetration of AIPC and strong performance in the AI server business, with expectations for continued high demand in the AI trend [1]. Performance Overview - Lenovo's FY25/26Q2 financial report showed revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%, and an adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit is emphasized due to significant impacts from the fair value changes of warrants [1]. IDG Smart Device Business Group - The PC business performed well, with the IDG segment achieving revenue of $15.107 billion in FY25/26Q2, a year-on-year increase of 11.79%. PC revenue was approximately $11.1 billion, reflecting a 17.58% increase, significantly outpacing the IDC's reported global PC shipment growth of 10.32% for Q3 [2]. AIPC Penetration - AIPC's global shipment accounted for 33% of total PC shipments, with a 30% share in the domestic market for notebooks, marking a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, indicating accelerated market penetration [2]. ISG Infrastructure Solutions - The ISG segment reported revenue of $4.087 billion in FY25/26Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 23.65%. AI servers experienced double-digit growth, and the order backlog is strong. Revenue from the Neptune liquid cooling technology surged by 154%, indicating ongoing transformation in the AI server business [3]. Gross Margin and Supply Chain Management - The gross margin for FY25/26Q2 was 15.39%, reflecting a 0.66 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, validating the positive progress in the AI server business transformation. The company has a robust supply chain and has developed comprehensive strategies to address price increases in components [4]. Profit Forecast - Shenwan Hongyuan maintains its previous profit forecasts, expecting revenues of $79.49 billion, $91.55 billion, and $105.24 billion for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with net profits of $1.67 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.43 billion, respectively. This outlook is based on Lenovo's leading position in the PC market and the ongoing advancement of AIPC products, alongside strong growth in AI servers driven by the AI trend [5].

Core Insights - Lenovo's China region achieved record revenue for the first half of the fiscal year 2025/2026 (April to September 2025) [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Lenovo's enterprise business group saw both revenue and net profit grow significantly in double digits [1] - Infrastructure revenue increased by 42% year-on-year [1] - The PC market share for the small and medium-sized enterprise business group reached 30.9%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] Group 2: Consumer Business - The consumer business group achieved a PC sales market share of 36.6%, setting a new historical record [1] - Consumer tablets and smartphones experienced year-on-year growth of 121% and 28%, respectively, driven by the "one body, multiple ends" strategy [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Services - The infrastructure business group continued to maintain rapid growth, with servers performing well in the E/SMB market and experiencing high growth in the CSP market [1] - The solution service business group is leading the market, with IT services ranked first in China, widening the gap with the second place [1] - The urban super-intelligent body has been implemented in ten cities [1] - The Baijing intelligent body 2.0 mobile version was released, with comprehensive upgrades to L3 in AI operations, AI office, and AI marketing scenarios [1] - The "Xiang Bang Bang" intelligent body expanded its new customer base by 4.4 million in six months [1]

Group 1 - The smart electric vehicle business of Xiaomi Group achieved its first quarterly profit, with a record high profit in Q3 2025, reporting revenue of approximately 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [4][5] - The automotive segment saw a significant increase in revenue, reaching 283 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 197.9%, driven by an increase in delivery volume and average selling price (ASP) [7] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment maintained year-on-year growth, achieving revenue of 276 billion RMB in Q3 2025, despite subsidy reductions [6] Group 2 - Top Group reported a revenue of 209.28 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, with a notable growth in the automotive electronics business [10] - The company’s Q3 2025 revenue reached 79.94 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.53%, primarily due to increased sales from key customers [10][11] Group 3 - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately 311.74 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, influenced by decreases in online marketing and iQIYI revenues [13][15] - The AI-driven marketing services within Baidu's core business saw a significant increase, with revenue reaching 28 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 262% [15] Group 4 - XPeng Motors reported a revenue of 203.8 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with automotive revenue contributing 180.5 billion RMB [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to reach between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [21] Group 5 - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of approximately 204.52 billion USD for FY2026Q2, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue [24][25] - The infrastructure solutions group within Lenovo saw a revenue increase of 24%, driven by new customer acquisitions and business transformations [26] Group 6 - The AIDC storage report indicates a high demand in the industry, with significant growth expected in the data center storage market, projected to reach 212 GWh globally by 2030 [28][29] - The report highlights that data center storage has shifted from being an optional configuration to a necessity, driven by increasing power density and load demands [29][30]

同时认为，联想集团AI基础设施业务强劲增长，今财季内，集团云基础设施业务收入创同期历史新 高，AI服务器收入亦实现高双位数增长。 中金发布研报称，维持联想集团(00992)目标价14.8港元及"跑赢行业"评级，仍有52%的上行空间，暂维 持2026-2027财年盈测不变，整体业绩超该行预期，主因三大业务集团及全区域市场均实现双位数收入 增长，AI相关收入业务收入占比同比升13个百分点至30%，及运营利润率的提升。 面对上游核心元器件涨价，该行认为，集团在上游储存供应紧张、涨价压力下，拥有灵活的供应链管 理、与关键元器件供应商长期合作关系，也建立了灵活的价格调整机制，具较强的风险吸收能力。集团 亦对2026下半财年PC收入实现双位数的同比增长有信心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains Lenovo Group's target price at HKD 14.8 with an "outperform" rating, indicating a 52% upside potential, while keeping the earnings forecast for FY2026-2027 unchanged due to overall performance exceeding expectations [1] Group Performance - Lenovo's three major business groups and all regional markets achieved double-digit revenue growth [1] - AI-related revenue increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year to account for 30% of total revenue [1] - The operating profit margin has improved [1] Supply Chain Management - The company possesses strong risk absorption capabilities due to flexible supply chain management and long-term relationships with key component suppliers [1] - Lenovo has established a flexible pricing adjustment mechanism to cope with rising prices and supply shortages of core components [1] Future Outlook - Lenovo is confident in achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in PC revenue for the second half of FY2026 [1] - The AI infrastructure business is experiencing robust growth, with cloud infrastructure revenue reaching a historical high for the quarter [1] - AI server revenue also saw high double-digit growth [1]

Lenovo Group Conference Call Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Lenovo Group - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on personal computers (PCs), infrastructure solutions, and artificial intelligence (AI) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Lenovo achieved record revenue of **$20.5 billion** in Q2 2025, a **14.6%** year-over-year increase [3] - Adjusted net profit rose **25%** to **$512 million**, with an adjusted net profit margin expanding to **2.5%** [3] - Operating cash flow reached **$1.5 billion**, and free cash flow increased to **$1.1 billion** [10] Business Segment Performance - **PC Business**: Revenue exceeded **$15 billion**, growing **12%** year-over-year, with a market share of **25.6%**, a historical high [2][4] - **Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG)**: Revenue grew **24%** to **$4.1 billion**, driven by new customer acquisition in cloud services and enterprise transformation [2][9] - **Solutions and Services Group (SSG)**: Achieved **18%** year-over-year growth, marking the **18th consecutive quarter** of double-digit growth, with an operating margin exceeding **22%** [2][8] AI and Innovation - AI-related revenue accounted for **30%** of total revenue, highlighting the company's focus on AI integration [2][3] - Lenovo is launching a personalized AI assistant and super agent, set to be showcased at Tech World on January 6, 2026 [6] Market Outlook - Lenovo anticipates continued double-digit growth in the PC business over the next **2-4 years** and expects the smartphone market to grow faster than the overall market [2][16][17] - The company plans to increase investments in the B2B sector and accelerate high-end product promotion [17] Geographic Performance - All reported geographic regions experienced double-digit revenue growth, demonstrating Lenovo's strong presence in **180 markets** [7] Supply Chain and Cost Management - Lenovo has implemented strict financial management, resulting in a **31%** reduction in adjusted net financing costs [10] - The company is well-positioned to manage memory price increases due to its scale and long-term contracts with suppliers [15] ESG Achievements - Lenovo received global recognition in ESG, ranking **8th** in Gartner's top 25 supply chains and being included in the World Economic Forum's global lighthouse network [13] Future Strategies - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy focuses on AI factories and solutions to accelerate AI deployment for clients [19][20] - The MEA manufacturing center is on track for large-scale production by mid-2026, expected to significantly contribute to financial performance [22] Competitive Advantages - Lenovo leads the Windows IPC market with over **30%** share, attributed to innovation, rapid market entry, and localized operations [25] Additional Important Insights - The Neptune liquid cooling system has seen a **150%** increase in sales, reflecting the demand for high-performance infrastructure [23] - The company is optimistic about the overall server market, expecting high single-digit growth driven by AI democratization [24]

Lenovo Group Conference Call Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Lenovo Group - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on personal and enterprise intelligent devices, AI infrastructure, and cloud services Key Points and Arguments Overall Performance - Lenovo Group reported robust revenue growth with all business segments and regions achieving double-digit growth - AI-related business revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2][3] Personal Intelligent Devices - Lenovo is set to launch a personal super intelligent device on January 6, 2026, as part of its multi-end strategy - IDG (Intelligent Device Group) revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, with global PC market share surpassing 25% - AI terminal devices now represent 36% of IDG's revenue, up 17% year-on-year [2][4][5] Enterprise Intelligent Solutions - The infrastructure market is shifting towards local data centers and edge-side inference, leading to a 24% year-on-year revenue increase in SGG (Solutions Group) - Strong order reserves for AI infrastructure, with SSG (Solutions Services Group) achieving double-digit growth for 18 consecutive quarters and an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [2][6] Supply Chain Management - Lenovo, as one of the largest buyers in the industry, has secured sufficient supply through long-term contracts to mitigate the impact of rising memory prices and supply shortages - The company has implemented strategies to ensure competitive costs while maintaining supply stability [2][7][8][9] Future Revenue Expectations - For the upcoming third fiscal quarter, Lenovo anticipates mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth, with expectations of double-digit growth in PC and SG businesses in the second half of the 2025-2026 fiscal year - Overall revenue is projected to achieve low double-digit growth, with net profit also expected to grow by double digits [2][10] Global Market Performance - All major regional markets, including China, Asia-Pacific, Americas, and EMEA, have shown double-digit growth, providing solid support for the company's business [2][11] Supply Chain and Cost Control Strategies - Lenovo has a mature and flexible supply chain management mechanism, locking in supply for 2026 to mitigate potential shortages - The company employs a pricing adjustment mechanism to manage cost pressures without significantly impacting shipment volumes [2][12] AI Developments - Lenovo is actively advancing in the AI sector, with separate accounting for personal AI and enterprise intelligence revenue, indicating a focus on developing these business segments [2][13] - The company has made significant progress in mixed AI applications, with the Tianxi AI system leading in the AI PC market [2][14] PC Market Outlook - The global PC market outlook is optimistic, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and a natural upgrade cycle involving approximately 400 million devices - AIPC (AI PC) features are driving demand, with market share exceeding 30% and contributing to increased pricing and profitability [2][15] ISG Business Performance - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) revenue structure shows CSP (Cloud Service Provider) clients accounting for about 70% and enterprise clients for 30%, with enterprise client growth outpacing CSP [2][16][17] Liquid Cooling Technology - Lenovo has developed advanced liquid cooling technology, significantly reducing energy consumption and enhancing efficiency [2][19] Market Position in China - Lenovo has achieved rapid growth in the Chinese market, increasing its market share from 4.7% in 2023 to 11-12% in 2024, positioning itself as the second-largest CSP provider in the country [2][20]