Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of China Shenhua to "Buy" [1][2][6] Core Views - The company's coal and power businesses are operating steadily, with high dividends highlighting long-term investment value [1] - The integrated advantages of the company are evident, with coal business achieving low-cost operations and power business continuing to expand [1] - The company maintains a high level of return to investors, with a proposed cash dividend of 22.6 yuan per 10 shares for 2023, totaling 44.903 billion yuan, which accounts for 75.2% of net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 87.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 15.884 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year but up 39.0% quarter-on-quarter [1] - For the full year 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 343.074 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 59.694 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [1] Coal Business - In Q1 2024, coal production and sales reached 81.3 million tons and 117.1 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 1.5% and 8.8% [1] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2024 was 573 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year [1] - The coal business maintained a gross profit margin of 28.9%, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Power Business - In Q1 2024, the company generated 55.35 billion kWh of electricity, with sales reaching 52.16 billion kWh, both up 7.0% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of electricity was 409 yuan per MWh, down 2.6% year-on-year [1] - The power business achieved a gross profit margin of 16.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Dividend Policy - The company has a strong track record of returning value to shareholders, with dividend payout ratios of 91.88%, 100.4%, and 72.77% from 2020 to 2022 [1] - The proposed cash dividend for 2023 reflects the company's commitment to high shareholder returns [1] Earnings Forecast - The report raises the net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and introduces a forecast for 2026, estimating net profits of 61.459 billion yuan, 64.073 billion yuan, and 66.630 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.09 yuan, 3.22 yuan, and 3.35 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [1]

证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：2024-021 | 合伙人 | 性质 | 认缴出资金额 （人民币亿元） | 出资比例 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国华能源投资有限公司 | 有限合伙人 | 0.7 | 35 | | 中国神华能源股份有限公司 | 有限合伙人 | 0.6 | 30 | | 陕西省政府投资引导基金合伙 | 有限合伙人 | 0.4 | 20 | | 企业（有限合伙） | | | | | 西安联瑞产业投资发展基金合 | 有限合伙人 | 0.2 | 10 | | 伙企业（有限合伙） | | | | | 国华投资开发资产管理（北京） | 普通合伙人 | 0.1 | 5 | | 有限公司 | | | | | 合计 | - | 2 | 100 | 中国神华能源股份有限公司 关于参与设立国能科技成果转化投资基金 暨关联交易进展的公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在 任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完 整性承担法律责任。 经中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）第五届董事会第二十五次会议批 ...

中国神华能源股份有限公司 2024 年 4 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2024 | 年 | 2023 | 年 | 同比变化(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月 4 | 累计 | 月 4 | 累计 | 月 4 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 27.5 | 108.8 | 26.1 | 106.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | | 2. 煤炭销售量 | 百万吨 | 37.0 | 154.1 | 36.6 | 144.2 | 1.1 | 6.9 | | （二）运输 | | | | | | | | | 1. 自有铁路运输周转量 | 十亿吨公里 | 26.3 | 108.3 | 27.3 | 101.8 | (3.7) | 6.4 | | 2. 黄骅港装船量 | 百万吨 | ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is related to the coal industry, specifically focusing on the company represented by Zhongtai Securities. Core Points and Arguments - The theme of the conference is "Quality Returns and Dual Improvement" in the coal sector, indicating a focus on enhancing both the quality of coal production and the returns on investment in this industry [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of cautious investment in the market, highlighting the inherent risks associated with the coal industry [1]. - The company reserves the right to pursue legal responsibility for any actions contrary to the stated guidelines, indicating a serious approach to compliance and investor relations [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua (601088) with a target price of 46.20 CNY, up from the previous target of 43.12 CNY [3][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 87.647 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a slight increase of 0.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.884 billion CNY, down 14.66%, aligning with market expectations [2][3]. - The coal sales continue to grow, with a total coal production of 81.3 million tons in Q1 2024, up 1.5%, and sales of 117 million tons, up 8.8%, increasing market share despite a national decline in coal production [2][3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout, with dividend rates of 91.8%, 100%, 72.7%, and 75% from 2020 to 2023, indicating strong profitability and stability [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 328.163 billion CNY, a decrease of 4% from 2023, with net profit expected to be 61.158 billion CNY, a 2% increase [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 3.08 CNY, with a slight increase to 3.09 CNY in 2025 and 3.19 CNY in 2026 [2][3]. - The company’s operating profit margin is expected to decline to 23.8% in 2024 from 26.5% in 2023, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.5% [2][3]. Market Data - The stock price has fluctuated between 27.01 CNY and 41.90 CNY over the past year, with a total market capitalization of 774.872 billion CNY [4][5]. - The average daily trading volume is approximately 34.80 million shares, with an average daily trading value of 1.34594 billion CNY [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.98, with a projected PE of 12.67 for 2024 [2][3]. - The dividend yield is estimated at 5.8% for 2023, expected to rise to 6.3% in 2024 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A / Buy - H" [1] Core Views - In Q1, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, but its performance stability is better than peers. The company reported a net profit of 15.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.0%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 16.46 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year but up 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The coal segment's profit declined, while the transportation and power generation segments saw profits increase by over 10% year-on-year. In Q1, the company produced 81.3 million tons of commodity coal, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and sold 80.3 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year. The revenue per ton of self-produced coal was 533 yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 297 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [2] - The company's operational model is robust, with expected growth in coal and electricity businesses through internal projects and acquisitions. The dividend payout ratio has significantly increased since 2017, with a planned cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% for 2022-2024, and a proposed dividend ratio of 75.2% for 2023 [2] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 332.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% from 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 61.41 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.9% from 2023. The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 3.09 yuan per share [3] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted to be 114.66 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 12.80. The ROE is expected to be 14.2% [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. Company Overview - The conference call involved **China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd.**, a leading company in the coal industry, discussing its performance and market outlook for 2024 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Valuation and Growth**: - The analyst expressed confidence in China Shenhua's long-term market value, initially estimating it at over **500 billion** in 2020, which was quickly achieved. The target was later raised to **1 trillion**, with the current market value around **800 billion**, reflecting a **60% increase** [3][4]. - There is an expectation of at least **40%** more growth potential in the company's market value [4]. 2. **First Quarter Performance**: - In Q1 2024, China Shenhua reported a **1.5%** increase in coal production to **81.3 million tons** and an **8.8%** increase in coal sales to **117 million tons**. Total power generation rose by **7%** to **55.35 billion kWh** [7][8]. - The company achieved a net profit of **15.884 billion** yuan, a **14.7%** decrease year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [8]. 3. **Profitability Challenges**: - The decline in coal prices impacted average sales prices and distribution profits. The average price for coal dropped by approximately **18 yuan** per ton compared to the previous year [8][9]. - Increased production costs and additional expenditures related to ecological contributions in Inner Mongolia also affected profitability [9]. 4. **Integrated Business Model**: - China Shenhua operates an integrated business model encompassing coal, electricity, transportation, and coal chemical industries, which helps mitigate cyclical risks and stabilize earnings [9]. 5. **Government Relations and Market Management**: - The company is closely monitoring government policies regarding state-owned enterprise management and market value assessments, with ongoing discussions about specific performance indicators [13][14]. - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a competitive edge against industry and composite indices [15]. 6. **Future Outlook**: - The company anticipates continued demand for coal as a primary energy source in China, despite potential shifts towards renewable energy [20]. - There is a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and maintaining high dividend payouts, with a commitment to return at least **60%** of profits to shareholders [26][30]. 7. **Investment and Capital Expenditure**: - Future capital expenditures are expected to remain between **30 billion** to **50 billion** yuan, with significant investments in power generation and infrastructure [25][32]. - The company is exploring opportunities for asset acquisitions and new mining projects to sustain growth [29]. 8. **Environmental and Social Responsibility**: - China Shenhua is actively involved in ecological initiatives, contributing to environmental governance in Inner Mongolia, which is seen as a long-term investment in community relations [39][43]. Additional Important Content - The management highlighted the importance of balancing short-term financial performance with long-term sustainability and community engagement [41][46]. - The company is committed to transparency in its financial practices and aims to foster investor confidence through consistent communication and performance [36][37]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of China Shenhua's current status and future direction in the coal industry.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the coal business remains stable while the power sector shows significant profit growth. The company achieved a revenue of 87.65 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.88 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39% [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a net profit of 15.88 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year but up 39% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 16.46 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year but up 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The coal segment's self-produced coal sales volume was 8.03 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9%. The average selling price for coal was 573 yuan per ton, down 7.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - The power segment achieved a sales volume of 55.35 billion kWh, up 7% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 16.9%, reflecting an increase from the previous quarter [6][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 60.13 billion yuan, 60.28 billion yuan, and 61.27 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.03, 3.03, and 3.08 yuan [6][7][9]. - The report anticipates stable profitability in the coal business due to a high proportion of long-term contracts, while the new power generation capacity is expected to contribute to revenue growth [6][7]. Valuation - The company is projected to have a reasonable valuation range of 42.37 to 45.40 yuan based on a PE ratio of 14 to 15 times for 2024 [6][7].

Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 46.8 RMB, current price at 39.00 RMB [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in coal production and sales despite a challenging environment, driven by high long-term contract coverage [1] - Coal production and sales increased by 1.5% and 8.8% YoY respectively in Q1 2024, while power generation and sales both grew by 7.0% YoY [2] - The company's diversified business model, including coal, power, transportation, and coal chemical sectors, contributed to stable performance [2] - Long-term contract sales ratio slightly declined to 81.3% in Q1 2024, down 5.3 ppts YoY, mainly due to reduced coverage of downstream power plant demand [2] - The company's high dividend payout ratio, averaging over 75% in recent years, and a current dividend yield of 5.9% enhance its investment appeal [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached 87.647 billion RMB, up 0.7% YoY but down 3.3% QoQ [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.884 billion RMB, down 14.7% YoY but up 39.0% QoQ [2] - Non-GAAP net profit stood at 16.46 billion RMB, down 11.2% YoY but up 9.3% QoQ [2] - Gross margins for coal, power, railway, port, shipping, and coal chemical sectors were 28.9%, 16.9%, 38.1%, 48.6%, 11.2%, and 6.3% respectively in Q1 2024 [2] Business Segments - Coal segment: Production and sales volumes were 81.3 million tons and 117.1 million tons respectively in Q1 2024 [2] - Power segment: Electricity generation and sales reached 55.35 billion kWh and 52.16 billion kWh respectively in Q1 2024 [2] - Transportation segment: Railway transportation volume increased by 10.1% YoY to 82 billion ton-kilometers in Q1 2024 [2] - Coal chemical segment: Polyethylene and polypropylene sales volumes were 89,500 tons and 82,700 tons respectively, down 1.8% and 3.9% YoY [2] Growth and Expansion - The company is actively expanding its coal production capacity through acquisitions, with two ongoing projects expected to add 20.7 million tons/year of production capacity and 1.33 billion tons of remaining recoverable reserves [2] - In the power sector, the company added 167 MW of new generating capacity in Q1 2024, representing 0.3% of its total installed capacity [2] Market Outlook - Thermal coal prices rebounded in mid-April 2024, with two consecutive increases totaling 15 RMB/ton, stabilizing at 840 RMB/ton [2] - The report anticipates potential price increases in Q3 2024, driven by seasonal demand from the coal chemical sector during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 62.076 billion RMB, 64.001 billion RMB, and 64.813 billion RMB respectively [2] - The target price of 46.8 RMB is based on a 15x PE multiple for 2024, reflecting the company's historical valuation and dividend yield levels [2]

Financial Performance - In 2023, China Shenhua achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 59.7 billion, with basic earnings per share of CNY 3.004 [1] - The company reported a coal sales volume of 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - The total power generation reached 212.3 billion kWh, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [2] Operational Highlights - The coal division's profit totaled CNY 58.53 billion, while the power generation division's profit increased by 34.1% to CNY 10.64 billion [2] - The average selling price of coal was CNY 584 per ton [2] - The company maintained a low production cost of CNY 179 per ton for self-produced coal, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing energy security and integrated operations, with a production capacity increase of 3 million tons approved for Baode coal mine [2] - Investments in technology and digital development led to 763 patents granted and 51 awards received in 2023 [2] - The company is actively pursuing clean development initiatives and has established a low-carbon development group [3] ESG and Governance - China Shenhua has been proactive in ESG management since 2007, with ongoing improvements in governance and information disclosure [3] - The company aims to align its market value with intrinsic value through effective market management strategies [7] Capital Expenditure and Cash Management - The capital expenditure for 2024 is planned at approximately CNY 36.8 billion, consistent with previous levels [5] - As of the end of last year, the company had cash reserves of about CNY 150 billion and a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.1% [5] Shareholder Returns - The cash dividend payout ratio for 2023 is proposed at 75.2%, exceeding the minimum commitment of 60% [6] - The company is committed to sustainable and high-level returns for shareholders, with plans for a new three-year shareholder return strategy [6]