Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs raised its profit forecast for New China Life Insurance by 25% for this year, reflecting better-than-expected performance in the first half and stock market gains in the third quarter [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The investment bank increased its net profit forecasts for New China Life Insurance for the next two years by 6% to 7% due to a rebound in bond yields leading to slightly higher investment income [1] - The new business value forecast for the company from this year to 2027 was raised by 8% to 10%, driven by an increase in new premium sales [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability - The increase in new business value was partially offset by a decline in profit margin due to increased contributions from the bancassurance channel [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - Goldman Sachs adjusted the target price for New China Life Insurance from HKD 26.5 to HKD 29 while maintaining a "Sell" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The recent implementation of the public fund fee reform in three phases is driving high-quality development in the industry. Brokerage firms continue to show high growth in their mid-year performance, and market enthusiasm remains high. The valuation still offers cost-effectiveness, suggesting a focus on leading companies and high-performing stocks in the sector. In the insurance sector, the overall trend supports the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement and accelerating valuation recovery [2][4] - From the perspective of profitability and dividend stability, the report continues to recommend Jiangsu Jinzu, which has stable profit growth and dividend rates, China Ping An, which maintains a high dividend yield, and China Pacific Insurance, which has clear advantages in business model and market position. Additionally, based on performance elasticity and valuation levels, the report recommends Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.3% this week, with an excess return of -1.1% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 24th out of 31 industries. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 8.2%, with an excess return of -6.7%, also ranking 21st out of 31 [5] - Market enthusiasm has slightly declined, with an average daily trading volume of 23,264.15 billion yuan, down 10.63% week-on-week, and an average turnover rate of 2.45%, down 34.86 basis points [5] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released the "Classification Evaluation Regulations for Futures Companies" [6] - Company announcements include Guosen Securities completing the registration procedures for issuing new shares to acquire 96.08% of Wanhe Securities, and Xibu Securities completing the transfer of shares for the acquisition of Guorong Securities [6] Brokerage Data Tracking - The report highlights a slight recovery in margin financing, with a balance of 2.34 trillion yuan, up 2.67% week-on-week. The stock pledge market remains cautious, with expectations of continued contraction in stock pledge scale, but improved asset yield rates are anticipated to enhance income performance [45][49]

Core Viewpoint - The significant growth in the bancassurance channel's performance in the first half of 2025 is a common characteristic among the five major listed insurance companies in A-shares, driven by factors such as "reporting and banking integration," strong demand for wealth management, and the recovery of the "one-to-many" model in bancassurance [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - China Ping An's bancassurance channel NBV increased by 168.6% year-on-year [3] - China Life's new single premium in the bancassurance channel grew by 111.1% year-on-year [3] - China Pacific Insurance's new insurance business in the bancassurance channel rose by 95.6% [3] - New China Life's first-year premium for long-term insurance in the bancassurance channel surged by 150.3% [3] - China People's Insurance's NBV on a comparable basis increased by 107.7% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Three main factors are driving the significant growth in the bancassurance channel: 1. "Reporting and banking integration" enhances the business value of the bancassurance channel [6] 2. The low-interest-rate environment has led to strong demand for wealth management, with insurance products offering relative advantages over bank deposits [6] 3. The recovery of the "one-to-many" model has opened up growth opportunities [6] Group 3: Channel Strategy - The bancassurance channel is becoming a consensus among listed insurance companies, with significant increases in both the number of partnerships with banks and per capita productivity [3][4] - The diversification of bancassurance channels is a growing trend, with a focus on not only state-owned and joint-stock banks but also city commercial banks and rural commercial banks [4] - The insurance industry is shifting towards a multi-channel strategy, recognizing the need to cater to different customer segments through various distribution channels [8]

Regulatory Dynamics - Three departments will jointly conduct a financial education publicity week from September 15 to 21, 2025, focusing on enhancing financial knowledge and protecting consumer rights [6] - Two departments announced a list of pilot projects for intelligent elderly care service robots, including 32 key technology projects [7] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau revised the consumer rights protection evaluation method for financial institutions, introducing seven evaluation elements [10] - The Central Bank will increase financial support for regions undergoing comprehensive reform trials for market-oriented resource allocation [12] - Beijing Shunyi will provide up to 50 million for new registered financial institutions [13] Company Dynamics - China Ping An increased its stake in Postal Savings Bank of China to 16.01% by purchasing 7,068.81 million HKD worth of shares [19] - Great Wall Life raised its stake in New天绿色能源 to 11.11% with an investment of 1,271.97 million HKD [20] - China Pacific Insurance plans to issue 155.56 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support its insurance business [23] - China Life Asset Management initiated a debt investment plan worth 2.1 billion for the Longxi口航电 hub project [24] - China Taiping showcased its achievements at the 2025 Service Trade Fair [29] Industry Dynamics - The insurance industry saw a 43.61% year-on-year increase in penalties in August 2025, totaling 44.33 million [49] - Insurance companies have issued over 273 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds this year [50] - Insurance capital is increasingly being allocated to ETFs, with a significant rise in holdings [51] - The trend of "insurance buying insurance" is re-emerging, with insurers increasing equity asset allocations [53] - 86 property insurance companies reported a combined net profit of over 527 billion, with only 8 companies reporting losses [64] Product and Service Innovations - Ping An Life launched the e生保 series of medical insurance products, featuring a new "安有医" service [67] - China Life introduced a new mid-range medical insurance product [66] - The "沪家保3.0" product was launched, increasing total coverage by nearly 15% without changing the premium [66]

事件：新华保险公布2025 年中报，营收和归母净利润分别同比增加26.0%和33.5%至700 亿和148 亿元， 归母净资产虽较年初下降13.3%，但较Q1 末回升4.5%，25H1 中期分红20.9 亿元，股息分配率为 14.1%，和去年同期的15%基本持平，寿险NBV 增速为58.4%，总投资收益率和综合投资收益率为5.9% 和6.3%，各项数据均表现出色。 点评 寿险银保NBV 贡献超50%，个险队伍有趋稳趋势1. 新华保险25H1 长期险首年期缴和趸交分别增长65% 和353%，主要是个险在25Q1销售3 年交短缴产品，银代25H1 同比多投放110 亿元趸交，两者拉动下实 现58.4%的nbv 增长，新业务csm 相应增长8.7%，但此消彼长下10 年期新单保费收入下降40%； 2. 新华保险极为重视银保渠道，我们预计上半年的发展动力在于和更多银行合作，实现举绩网点数量和 网均产能的双提升，25H1 新华保险银保渠道贡献的NBV 比重达到52.8%；后续或通过强本部、人网匹 配和重点银行渠道突破进一步增强银保渠道竞争力； 3. 新华保险的个险队伍的人数，合格人数，绩优人数和万C 人数均出现走稳趋势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing participation of long-term funds, such as insurance funds and public funds, in the capital market, which is expected to stabilize market volatility and enhance resource allocation efficiency [1][2][3] - The regulatory framework has been strengthened to encourage long-term investments, with measures like implementing longer assessment periods for insurance companies and increasing the proportion of equity funds [2][3] - The stock investment amount of the five major listed insurance companies reached 1.846429 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 28.71% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a positive trend in the insurance sector's investment behavior [2][3] Group 2 - The total scale of public funds in China reached 35.08 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase and reflecting a shift towards rational, long-term investment strategies [4] - The domestic ETF market has also seen substantial growth, with the total scale surpassing 5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 34% from the end of 2024, indicating a growing preference for index-based investments [4][5] - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in equity funds, with the proportion rising from 34.44% to 40.49% year-on-year, showcasing a trend towards more stable investment behaviors [6] Group 3 - The enterprise annuity market is gradually increasing its investment in equities, with a current A-share investment ratio of about 14%, suggesting potential for significant growth in long-term equity investments [7] - The long-term assessment mechanisms are expected to enhance the equity asset allocation of enterprise annuity funds, contributing to the overall stability and growth of the capital market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector experienced a decline of 1.51% on September 12, with New China Life leading the drop, while the overall market indices showed slight increases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] - The insurance sector's individual stock performance showed declines across major companies, with China Life down 0.43%, China Pacific down 1.21%, and New China Life down 1.30% [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The insurance sector saw a net outflow of 9.95 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 4.65 billion yuan [1] - The trading volume for major insurance stocks included China Life with 10.10 million shares traded and a transaction value of 400 million yuan [1] - The capital flow data indicated that China Life had a significant net outflow of 1.56 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 805.25 million yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue growing by 26.0% to 70 billion and net profit increasing by 33.5% to 14.8 billion [3] - The contribution of new business value (NBV) from bancassurance exceeded 50%, indicating a stable trend in the individual insurance sales force [4][6] - Investment performance has been strong, with a notable increase in investment income, which is crucial for the company's overall performance [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a 58.4% growth in NBV, driven by a 65% increase in first-year premiums and a 353% increase in single premiums [6] - Total investment return rate and comprehensive investment return rate were reported at 5.9% and 6.3%, respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 29.7 billion, 28.6 billion, and 30.3 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 13.3%, -3.7%, and 6.1% respectively [8] - The estimated intrinsic value per share for 2025-2027 is projected to be 92.8, 101.6, and 111.7 yuan, with current price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios of 0.68, 0.62, and 0.57 [8] Investment Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its bancassurance channel by increasing cooperation with more banks, which is expected to boost its performance [6] - The individual insurance sales force has shown signs of stabilization, with a significant increase in qualified personnel [6][12]

Group 1 - Xinhua Insurance's stock price decreased by 2.05% on September 12, trading at 63.45 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 197.935 billion CNY [1] - The company experienced a net outflow of 52.8711 million CNY in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1] - Year-to-date, Xinhua Insurance's stock price has increased by 32.99%, with a recent 5-day increase of 0.19% and a 20-day decrease of 5.58% [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, Xinhua Insurance had 61,000 shareholders, a decrease of 15.88%, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 18.96% [2] - For the first half of 2025, Xinhua Insurance reported a net profit of 14.799 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 33.53% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 35.939 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 13.913 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is actively engaging in capital market activities, with investment scale surpassing 36 trillion yuan, driven by the need to enhance returns amid declining interest rates and to capitalize on market opportunities [1][9][41]. Group 1: Capital Market Activity - The capital market remains vibrant, benefiting insurance companies' performance, with a notable increase in investment scale to over 36 trillion yuan [1][9]. - Insurance companies have frequently engaged in actions such as increasing stakes, acquisitions, and share buybacks, with 31 instances of shareholding increases recorded in 2025 [19][20]. - In the first half of 2025, insurance companies increased their holdings in 548 companies while reducing stakes in 528 others, indicating active trading strategies [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Performance - In the first half of 2025, 73 life insurance companies reported a net profit of 18.58 billion yuan, marking a continuous increase over three years, attributed to rising investment income [2][9]. - The investment return rates for major insurance companies have shown variability, with China Life achieving a 3.56% return, while others like Ping An and New China Insurance reported 3.46% and 3.25% respectively [6][9]. Group 3: Product Development - The insurance sector is shifting towards promoting dividend insurance and other floating income products due to asymmetric reductions in preset interest rates [4][9]. - Traditional and dividend insurance products have seen their preset interest rates adjusted, with traditional insurance now at 2.0% and dividend insurance at 1.75% [4][9]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies - Insurance companies are increasingly acquiring long-term rental apartments, with a total investment scale of 1,620 billion yuan approved for long-term investment trials [27][30]. - The establishment of rental housing funds, such as the 45 billion yuan fund focusing on first-tier cities, reflects a strategic shift towards stable rental income [28][29]. Group 5: Stock Investment Strategy - Insurance companies are focusing on increasing their holdings in FVOCI stocks to enhance dividend income and stabilize net investment returns amid declining interest rates [36][37]. - The proportion of dividend income in net investment returns has risen for major insurers, indicating a strategic pivot towards high-dividend stocks [38][41]. Group 6: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory body has approved multiple rounds of funding for long-term investments, with a total of over 1,600 billion yuan allocated to encourage insurance capital market participation [32][45].